LaHug's Captains - Round 1 2014

[LaHug]

In one sense, it feels like I've been doing this my whole life yet, in another, it feels like my first article was just yesterday. Anyway, I'm back for my fourth straight year of bringing you the most well-researched captains advice in town!

For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. And remember, if you have any requests, just ask!

Round 1 this year is different to past years and is also slightly different in AF and DT. Both comps will have rolling lockouts for the first week of round 1 (meaning changes can be made to any players that have yet to play a game) but AF is a full lockout from the start of Essendon vs. North in week 2. DT isn't entirely clear but let's assume it's the same as AF for now and hope for some more information. AF is also unique in that, after the round 1 lockout, unlimited trades can be made up until the start of round 2! The one thing in common with both of these special rounds is the option for THE CAPTAINS LOOPHOLE!

Note that because of the way AF lockout is run, you can only choose a VC from the first week to use the loophole. I'm still unsure of what the case will be for the DT comp.

How it works:

1.   Select a player completing his game comfortably BEFORE your "safer" or "back-up" captain as your VICE CAPTAIN.
2.   For now, set your captain to someone worthy of captaincy in a later game than your VC in case you forget to change it.
3.   IF your VC scores really well, sub a non-playing player onto the field and set them as captain. This should be much easier in AF than DT as you probably want as many rooks playing as possible in DT.
4.   Make sure you have an emergency in the position of your non-playing captain!

Note: This has risks if there are any late withdrawals as you won't have cover. I will not accept any responsibility for any such misfortune. Your team, your decision!

Should I or shouldn't I:

If your VC was Barlow, take his VC score! Definitely loophole. I recommend using ruck rookies for Real DT because you're practically certain to have a non-playing one anyway.

If your VC was Ball, Pendlebury, or Beams, it's a little tougher. I would take their VC scores over anyone not named Ablett but would still keep the C on Ablett if I have him.

For any other VC so far, keep your captain!

The facts:

Swan
2013 avg: 117.45
Best 3 scores from 2013: 163 vs. GWS, 163 vs. Carlton, 137 vs. Bulldogs
Last 3 against Fremantle: 111, 172, 125 (136 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 137, 109, 123 (123 avg)

Pendlebury
2013 avg: 112.77
Best 3 scores from 2013: 153 vs. Adelaide, 133 vs. Carlton, 133 vs. Bulldogs
Last 3 against Fremantle: 92, 145, 117 (118 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 133, 121, 124 (126 avg)

Beams
2013 avg: 101.14
Best 3 scores from 2013: 134 vs. Gold Coast, 130 vs. GWS, 125 vs. Port
Last 3 against Fremantle: 113, 128, 100 (114 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 129, 137, 85 (117 avg)

Barlow
2013 avg: 104.62
Best 3 scores from 2013: 149 vs. Melbourne, 126 vs. West Coast, 123 vs. Sydney
Last 3 against Collingwood: 100, 120, 87 (102 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 56, 106, 91 (84 avg)

Jack
2013 avg: 101.36
Best 3 scores from 2013: 140 vs. Bulldogs, 138 vs. Fremantle, 130 vs. Adelaide
Last 3 against GWS: 79, 107, 127 (104 avg)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: N/A

T. Mitchell
2013 avg: 90.17
Best 3 scores from 2013: 140 vs. Bulldogs, 113 vs. GWS, 112 vs. Richmond
Last 3 against GWS: 113 (113 avg)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: N/A

Ablett
2013 avg: 114.62
Best 3 scores from 2013: 163 vs. Collingwood, 140 vs. Geelong, 139 vs. Hawthorn
Last 3 against Richmond: 106, 128, 101 (112 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 132, 64, 114 (103 avg)

Cotchin
2013 avg: 94.33
Best 3 scores from 2013: 144 vs. Fremantle, 137 vs. Hawthorn, 121 vs. St Kilda
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 114, 137, 118 (123 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 62 (62 avg)

Martin
2013 avg: 97.05
Best 3 scores from 2013: 144 vs. Port, 144 vs. Bulldogs, 132 vs. GWS
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 120, 95 (108 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: N/A

Cornes
2013 avg: 106.67
Best 3 scores from 2013: 156 vs. Gold Coast, 143 vs. Carlton, 128 vs. Adelaide
Last 3 against Carlton: 143, 103, 117 (121 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 95, 103, 73 (90 avg)

J. Selwood
2013 avg: 106.41
Best 3 scores from 2013: 157 vs. Port, 136 vs. St Kilda, 135 vs. West Coast
Last 3 against Adelaide: 133, 113, 106 (117 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 97, 110, 157 (121 avg)

Johnson
2013 avg: 118.38
Best 3 scores from 2013: 156 vs. Melbourne, 150 vs. Hawthorn, 144 vs. Port
Last 3 against Adelaide: 1, 96, 100 (66 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 84, 132, 109 (108 avg)

Dangerfield
2013 avg: 98.5
Best 3 scores from 2013: 145 vs. Hawthorn, 141 vs. GWS, 126 vs. West Coast
Last 3 against Geelong: 111, 86, 79 (92 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 111, 62, 56 (76 avg)

Goddard
2013 avg: 105.41
Best 3 scores from 2013: 153 vs. Gold Coast, 131 vs. Richmond, 128 vs. West Coast
Last 3 against North: 99, 75, 122 (99 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 99, 128, 103 (110 avg)

Stanton
2013 avg: 103.38
Best 3 scores from 2013: 149 vs. Richmond, 149 vs. Sydney, 144 vs. Richmond
Last 3 against North: 96, 153, 107 (119 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 96, 100, 89 (95 avg)

Watson
2013 avg: 98.74
Best 3 scores from 2013: 143 vs. Melbourne, 122 vs. Richmond, 122 vs. West Coast
Last 3 against North: 121, 132, 110 (121 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 121, 120, 16 (86 avg)

S. Mitchell
2013 avg: 95.52
Best 3 scores from 2013: 128 vs. Geelong, 127 vs. Geelong, 119 vs. Geelong
Last 3 against Brisbane: 100, 113, 119 (111 avg)
Last 3 at Aurora: 100, 102, 88 (97 avg)

Rockliff
2013 avg: 103.1
Best 3 scores from 2013: 144 vs. St Kilda, 140 vs. Geelong, 139 vs. Bulldogs
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 63, 100, 111 (91 avg)
Last 3 at Aurora: 63, 111, 76 (83 avg)

Riewoldt
2013 avg: 103.14
Best 3 scores from 2013: 153 vs. Sydney, 152 vs. Gold Coast, 123 vs. Carlton
Last 3 against Melbourne: 114, 30, 80 (75 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 120, 152, 104 (125 avg)

S. Selwood
2013 avg: 108.39
Best 3 scores from 2013: 142 vs. Melbourne, 136 vs. Port, 135 vs. Richmond
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 113, 119, 98 (110 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 125, 112, 98 (112 avg)

Griffen
2013 avg: 105.5
Best 3 scores from 2013: 166 vs. Port, 136 vs. Melbourne, 133 vs. Richmond/Sydney
Last 3 against West Coast: 106, 47, 100 (84 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 69, 100, 107 (92 avg)

Boyd
2013 avg: 103.92
Best 3 scores from 2013: 152 vs. Richmond, 144 vs. St Kilda, 129 vs. Melbourne
Last 3 against West Coast: 112, 80, 116 (103 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 80, 133, 102 (105 avg)

The thoughts:

Swan
The ultimate captain option every week, Swanny averaged a very solid 117 last year and provided us with regularly big captain scores. He had a massive 8 scores of 130+ last year so, if you can afford him this year, he's going to be close to a default captain option. Against the Dockers, he's sitting on 5 straight tons (most of them very healthy) and he's got 6 in a row at Etihad. Plus, he's playing in the first game so you can even take away the risk by using the VC! Prediction - 125

Pendlebury
Crowley held Pendles to just 23 disposals last time they played. It took 8 tackles to get Pendlebury up to a respectable, but still well below good, 92. That alone makes me think Swan is the better option in round 1... It's not all bad news though. Pendles seems to get better every year and averaged a good 113 last year. Just the 3 scores over 130 but another 5 in the 120s mean he's a solid pick each week. He's been over 120 in each of his last three round 1 games but I don't know how much you can take from that against different teams. I'd be very wary of Crowley. Prediction - 105

Beams
Coming off injury, Beams only played 7 games last year. This makes it all the more astonishing that he still had a 134, a 130, and a 125! He's 4 out of 4 for tons against Freo in his career and doesn't mind Etihad. I wouldn't be surprised if he got some opposition attention but Pendles should take the number one tag meaning Beamer will be relatively free to rack it up. Prediction - 115

Barlow
The short of it is that Barlow is a very consistent DT performer and should get around the 100-110 mark most weeks. Sometimes he'll do better and sometimes he'll do very poorly. His record at Etihad (just the one ton in his last 5) seems to suggest that this might be a poorer week. Prediction - 90

Jack
Some big scores last year had many taking notice of Jack before he fizzled out towards the end of the year. His scores against GWS aren't hugely impressive and he's never played at the Showgrounds before so I'm going to have to pass on him. Prediction - 100

T. Mitchell
A massive debut season from the young Swan saw him average 90 from his 12 games. A huge 144 showed his scoring potential and a 113 in his sole game against the Giants shows that he can play against them too. I'm not suggesting you make him captain but he might be worth a punt in a round 1 AF team. Junk time in the midfield or junk time goals could spell a very good score. Prediction - 85

Ablett
I don't need to go into any details about how amazing GAJ is (9 scores of 130+ last year, many of them absolutely ridiculous) so we'll just go straight into the match up. He's played the Tigers three times as a Sun. Twice he got tagged by Jackson (106 and 101). Once he was free (128). Jackson is likely out this week meaning GAJ will rack it up. Additionally, all three of those games have been in Cairns instead of his much beloved Metricon. At home, he should kill it even more. Finally, GAJ had three huge scores against top teams last year and Richmond looks like a top team this year... maybe he'll step up again? He's also done very handily in his two round 1s as a Sun (135 and 136). Everything looks good! Prediction - 135

Cotchin
Cotch was clearly injured for most of last season but was still serviceable. When he fired, it was big! I think he'll be one of the top 6 or so mids this year and he should start strong against the Suns, a team who he's scored well against in the past. Ignore that 62 as it was way back in 2009 before the Suns even existed. I like him for round 1 and beyond! Prediction - 115

Martin
Dusty is a player I expect to step up even more this year, likely finishing as a top 2 forward in the comp. He prays on weaker teams for massive scores and, interestingly, only scores 120+ outside of the MCG. Gold Coast don't look like they'll be a weak team this year so Dusty might not go huge but he should still be decent. Prediction - 100

Cornes
He had a solid year, yet again, and has some big scores against his name but there are just too many scores under 100 for me to go near him. That 143 against the Blues is mighty tempting though (in fact, his last three against them are all solid). I wouldn't start him, personally, but the risk could definitely pay off for AF's generous round 1 and the loophole! Prediction - 110

J. Selwood
Selwood went on a massive scoring tear and one point last year but he always manages to bring it back to Earth with a poor score. By averages, Joel is one of the better players in fantasy, and his huge ceiling makes him worth a look each year. The Crows are his second best team to play in his career and he's hit the ton 8 times out of 9. Unfortunately, he hurt his hammy in the NAB Challenge and that's too big a concern for me to consider him. If 100%, he should be good. Prediction - 115

Johnson
5 scores above 140 last year make Stevie J the best player in fantasy at getting stupidly high scores quite regularly. It's a pity the guy can't stop getting suspended. Anyway, even taking out that 1 against the Crows (clearly injury affected), they're his worst team to play against. I wouldn't touch him this week and I'm hoping he spuds up so that his price tag can come down a bit. Prediction - 90

Dangerfield
Danger definitely has a high ceiling and he carries the Crows almost every week but that can be his downfall, exhausting himself and sometimes pulling out poor scores. That 111 at the Cattery in 2012 looks promising but I can't back him in to do anything spectacular. Prediction - 100

Goddard
Goddard was a superstar in practically ever fantasy back line last year but it's a different game fitting him into a stacked midfield. North have been an average team for Goddard to play against with some big scores and some lesser scores. I wouldn't take the punt. Prediction - 95

Stanton
Just looking at the numbers tells the whole story. Stanton can score massively yet his last three at home are poor because he starts seasons strong and finishes horribly. If you're banking on this pattern reoccurring, you could get a massive score from him. Two years ago, Essendon vs. North happened in round 1 and Stanton scored 153! The big problem is that we can't loophole him because this game is week 2 so, if you take the big risk with Stanton, you'd better hope you don't get the 90 that's just as probable as the 130+. Prediction - You can't predict Stants but somewhere between 90 and 150...

Watson
A season to forget for Jobe still saw him play incredibly well and rack up some big scores. His career consistency against the Roos makes them his second favourite team to play against and we all know he's good at Etihad. Expect him to come out firing to start the season and make a loud point. Prediction - 120

S. Mitchell
Sammy Mitchell doesn't tend to get captain-worthy scores these days (unless he's playing the Cats) but is still very solid, particularly as a defender. He should be in everyone's starting teams but never a captain option. Note that Brisbane are his best non-expansion team to play against in his career and he has five straight tons against them. He will be good this week (but there will be many better). Prediction - 110

Rockliff
Voss was fired, Rocky moved back into the midfield, Rocky dominates. There you go, that's all you need to know about Rocky to know that he's underpriced this year and should definitely be in your DT (and AF by round 2 at least). However, the Hawks in Launceston can be a tough task and Rocky hasn't been that great against them, even as a mid. Be wary for this week. Prediction - 105

Riewoldt
One of the best DT forwards through effort alone, NRoo gives it his all to the Saints and frequently racks up marks and DT points with it. He'll get you 80 or more points every single week (only missed it once last year when injured in a 101 point loss to the Cats) and there's a small chance he'll explode for a lot more. Very pricey for what he'll give you, however. Still, against the Dees he's been very good with that 80 being his lowest score from 13 games against them (excluding the 30 which was in a single quarter before getting injured). With most of St. Kilda's good players at other teams or suspended, Nick will either lift his workload to a new level and go nuts, or sorely miss the supply and score a bit below average. Not worth risking with captaincy but I'd be putting him in my round 1 super team. Prediction - 110

S. Selwood
Scooter lifted his fantasy game another notch last year to finish as the highest averaging Selwood brother. He has a few poorer scores throughout the year but, if he can get them out of his game, he'll be a top shelf premium. Interestingly, he scored better away from home last year, but he was still good at Subi. Two solid scores against the Dogs last year and he should be good again. Prediction - 115

Griffen
Griff showed signs of elite status last year and, if he can consistently get those big scores, he'll be in everyone's teams by the end of the year. However, the Eagles are his worst team to play so it's a pass for this week. Prediction - 90

Boyd
Boyd only played 13 games last year and durability concerns will keep him out of most teams. However, he can still bring massive scores so he could be worth the gamble for this free round 1 in AF. Against the Eagles he's had plenty of solid scores and, like many DT stars, he's scored big at Subi before! There's not enough there for me to take a punt though. Prediction - 100

The verdict:

1.   Ablett (135)
2.   Swan (125)
3.   Watson (120)
4.   Cotchin (115)
5.   S. Selwood (115)

Requests:

Vince - Requested by Smileys Bruisres
2013 avg: 82.9
Best 3 scores from 2013: 119 vs. Fremantle, 112 vs. GWS, 106 vs. Sydney
Last 3 against St. Kilda: 92, 38, 49 (60 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 104, 92, 70 (89 avg)

Impossible to tell how Vince will go now that he's a Demon but there's never been that much exciting about him from a fantasy perspective. There's a chance he'll flourish with a new team and a great coach but there's just as much chance that he won't. The Saints practically have no midfield this week, which is a plus, but he hasn't exactly gone nuts on them in the past. Don't expect anything amazing but expect improvement from last year. Prediction - 90

Masten - Requested by essendon2
2013 avg: 98.42
Best 3 scores from 2013: 134 vs. Sydney, 126 vs. GWS, 120 vs. Essendon/Bulldogs
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 22, 120, 77 (73 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 64, 134, 91 (96 avg)

There's no doubt that Masten has what it takes to be an elite midfielder in fantasy footy but his inconsistency still hurts him. Ignore that 22 because he was injured but we're still looking at 7 other games under the ton last year with 3 of those under 80. Solid against the Bulldogs earlier last year but I'm not sure how much you can take from that one game. Prediction - 100

Shuey - Requested by essendon2
2013 avg: 88.43
Best 3 scores from 2013: 119 vs. Hawthorn, 118 vs. Bulldogs, 115 vs. Port
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 118, 79, 60 (86 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 24, 58, 114 (65 avg)

Injury plagued his season last year but when he was fit and in form, Shuey showed the potential for a 105-110 average. His second best game was against the Dogs last year so there's potential for something good. I wouldn't be making him captain and don't see why you'd risk putting him in your team when there are much better options. Still, should be solid this week. Prediction - 105

Liberatore - Requested by essendon2
2013 avg: 97.23
Best 3 scores from 2013: 148 vs. Melbourne, 144 vs. Melbourne, 142 vs. West Coast
Last 3 against West Coast: 142, 66, 107 (105 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 66, 81, 73 (73 avg)

Libba had heads turning with some huge scores last year but still only averaged 97, meaning he has a lot of low ones too. Against the Eagles, he had a massive 142 last year... but that was at Etihad under the roof. Earlier in the year at Subi, he only managed 66 points. Way too risky for me (although potential is definitely there). Prediction - 80

[Mr.Craig]

Pig to go oink.

[LaHug]

Hey all. This took me absolutely forever and I'm half asleep so it has not been well proofread. If you notice any obvious mistakes, please let me know ASAP! Additionally, I'm not very good at paying attention to injuries and the such so, if you notice anyone that isn't actually playing, let me know about that too :)

[LaHug]

Pig to go oink.

There's every chance he will. Looking at him and Pendles led me to swap them in DT and AF very, very quickly!

[Ricochet]

And it's back!

Hard to look past GAJ tbh

[LaHug]

And it's back!

Hard to look past GAJ tbh

Admittedly, with this fact being so glaringly obvious, I probably went way overboard with how much work I put into this... I guess it did help me do some research for the season though!

[LF]

Great work Huggy very nice write up to start the season with
Not sure yet what I'm doing tho

[elephants]

This writeup has made me want to start Swan & GAJ and loophole GAJ in if Swanny fails! :P

Top stuff LH, premium like always.

[Jroo]

Great stuff LH!
I think I'll chuck the VC on Ablett.

[Nige]

Woohoo, it returns!  8)

Locking in Pendles as captain because I reckon Tank can contain GAJ.  ;)

[Smileys Bruisres]

Cheers for the write up LuHug.

Whats do you think Bernie Vince & Rockcliff will score round 1?

[Toga]

Great stuff LaHug!

Although Ablett looks like the obvious choice, I definitely think the rest of your article was very handy as it has pushed me to think about who to start with for Round 1 in AF given the unlimited first round trades. Thinking I might squeeze Scooter in over Rocky for this week and swap them after Round 1!

Nice work mate 8)

[essendon2]

Just one thing mate (haven't read it yet - too excited) there is NO CAPTAIND LOOPHOLE for AF OR RDT

- vice captains and captains will be locked in in Thursday night

[essendon2]

floweren awesome stuff mate!

could I please request Vince, Masten, Shuey, and Libba ;)

[Chelskiman]

Going GAJ.  First game of the season it's hard not to pick him as captain.