Anyone changed Dusty to Roughguts after yesterday? I have

[Pokerface]

Roughy is excellent but just seems he has absolute stinkers and a lowish ceiling.

Check his top score of 145 in past 4 years and a swag of sub 60's.

Past 4 years is a long way to go back considering in 2010 he only averaged 77 so of course there is going to be a bunch of sub 60 scores. But look at his last 2 years instead and he has only dropped below 60 once!

Tend to agree - the same inconsistency applies to Dusty if you move the bar to 70 rather than 60. Without Buddy, I can't see Roughie not being more involved rather than just the decoy at times.

[tor01doc]

Don't get me wrong here. I love the big Ranga.

I just worry that 2013 Coleman Medal and all - average only 98 - only 4 scores over 120 yet 5 scores of 70 and below.

2012 - average 104 - better but more time in mids with more ruck duties. Even that year, only 4 scores over 120.

Martin has a higher ceiling and fewer lower scores and arguably Hawks can't get better than last 2 years (highest end of year % 2012 and Premiers 2013 with Roughy getting Coleman Medal as well) and Richmond are apparently improving.

DPP as well for Dusty.

Roughy's role now a bit different with BOTH Buddy leaving and Big Boy arriving.

The only reason I can see Roughy ahead of Dusty in your team is bye structure.

[Pokerface]

Yep totally understand your POV doc. Biggest factor for me at this stage is i'm not convinved on Dusty's scoring in the new role. While he didn't have much of a tank, his forward pressure acts and inside 50s were quite SC friendly.

[Blues Blues Blues]

I keep changing my M3, F2 and F3 with these guys:

Libba, Dusty, Gunstan
Rocky, Dusty, Pav
Rocky, Roughy, Gunstan
Jobe, roughy, Gunstan
Jobe, Dusty, Pav

My iPad is about to explode from constant changes!

[tor01doc]

Yep totally understand your POV doc. Biggest factor for me at this stage is i'm not convinved on Dusty's scoring in the new role. While he didn't have much of a tank, his forward pressure acts and inside 50s were quite SC friendly.

I guess my other thoughts revolve around the upside of a POD gets insurance if the guy you leave out is also a POD.

In this case, if your POD doesn't go really well, you can lose doubly because everyone willl have Dusty banging out tons.

I would prefer ditching someone like Buddy or Chad for Roughy and holding Dusty if that makes sense.

I also know your POD could fire and Dusty flop, but when has that ever happened for you!?  ::)

[Pokerface]

Yep totally understand your POV doc. Biggest factor for me at this stage is i'm not convinved on Dusty's scoring in the new role. While he didn't have much of a tank, his forward pressure acts and inside 50s were quite SC friendly.

I guess my other thoughts revolve around the upside of a POD gets insurance if the guy you leave out is also a POD.

In this case, if your POD doesn't go really well, you can lose doubly because everyone willl have Dusty banging out tons.

I would prefer ditching someone like Buddy or Chad for Roughy and holding Dusty if that makes sense.

I also know your POD could fire and Dusty flop, but when has that ever happened for you!?  ::)

Fair point (though i'm not sure buddy is a pod). I won't mention which pod i have in the mids and who i've left out now!

[Pokerface]

Although I guess the classic oft-quoted example was Impromptu starting without Goddard in 2011

[RaisyDaisy]

The Doc brings up a lot of valid points

Roughy is good for a 95-100 average, but his ceiling is low and he does put in the odd stinker. His appealing because for the most part he is pretty consistent

I would rather go JJK or even more Gunston, as I think these guys can match Roughy and are cheaper

[HotTiges]

Going to move Gunston on for the Rough

[hawkers65]

The Doc brings up a lot of valid points

Roughy is good for a 95-100 average, but his ceiling is low and he does put in the odd stinker. His appealing because for the most part he is pretty consistent

I would rather go JJK or even more Gunston, as I think these guys can match Roughy and are cheaper

Scored 165 in DT yesterday, averages far more in SC than DT aswell! Buddy leaving will give him a bigger ceiling. Dont be suprised if his game last night was in excess of 180!

[RaisyDaisy]

Scored 165 in DT yesterday, averages far more in SC than DT aswell! Buddy leaving will give him a bigger ceiling. Dont be suprised if his game last night was in excess of 180!

Might have to take your Hawk blinkers off  :P

Scoring 165 in DT is irrelevant, he beat up on a pathetic Melbourne side. As I said, Roughy is a gun, I love the guy, but I'm with Doc

[hawkers65]

Scored 165 in DT yesterday, averages far more in SC than DT aswell! Buddy leaving will give him a bigger ceiling. Dont be suprised if his game last night was in excess of 180!

Might have to take your Hawk blinkers off  :P

Scoring 165 in DT is irrelevant, he beat up on a pathetic Melbourne side. As I said, Roughy is a gun, I love the guy, but I'm with Doc

DT is based on pure basic stats, SC is how effective you are with these basic stats and Roughy was easily that! Best on by a country mile, heard he didn't waste a thing, barely missed any shots and racked it up at the same time. That spells a huge score!

[C.Judd3Votes]

I had Roughie as ruck last year and pissed me off. In saying that, forwards suck every year so I'm not sure here.

[Ricochet]

Just remember... it was Melbourne.

[hawkers65]

Just remember... it was Melbourne.

Yes! i completely understand! Was just trying to prove he will have a bigger ceiling without Buddy. Melb does exist in the afl so his score would count towards this ceiling :P IMO, putting my man love aside, he is good for a 97-102 average with Buddy gone. People dont understand how little Roughy was targeted inside 50 last year, especially for a Coleman medalist. With Buddy gone, all he needs to do is average one more mark I50 and the extra shot, to average over 100.