R3 - arguably the most important single position this year.

[Marstar]

In reality, Sandi might not get rested, there might be adequate R3 to cover etc etc etc. However I disagree on so many levels with many of the comments so far.

In theory:

a) The point of DDP is having flexibility and assurance.  Any donut in the rucks is potentially a loss of about ~3ppg* over the whole season (*assuming a fwd bench cover average of 63ppg). More than one donut and it becomes cumulative.

b) Hale IMO is are slightly undervalued. I believe he is capable of increasing his average to 90-95 this year.  Dixon i find harder to predict as he may not have rucking duties this year, however Dixon can potentially outscore Hale and would be similarly under-priced atm.  Personally I'm going with Hale.

Add the two scenarios together and should Sandi get rested 2 weeks for the whole year, those without cover will have lost ~6ppg*. Those with Hale and Sandi will not have. Effectively Hale has netted you 96-101 points ppg as a result (based on my predicted 2014 average).

c) If you are prepared to 'burn a trade to maintain solid rucks' anyway and Sandi becomes a keeper, then use that 'burned trade' on Hale (who won't lose money) for a fallen premium forward or on a breakout forward (E.g. Wingard 2013) at your discretion. 

[GoLions]

b) Hale IMO is are slightly undervalued. I believe he is capable of increasing his average to 90-95 this year.  Dixon i find harder to predict as he may not have rucking duties this year, however Dixon can potentially outscore Hale and would be similarly under-priced atm.  Personally I'm going with Hale.

That's where we differ in terms of what they will score. I expect about an 85 average from Hale, which isn't good enough. And as you said about Dixon not having ruck duties, I feel this will prevent him from averaging over 90.

Add the two scenarios together and should Sandi get rested 2 weeks for the whole year, those without cover will have lost ~6ppg*. Those with Hale and Sandi will not have. Effectively Hale has netted you 96-101 points ppg as a result (based on my predicted 2014 average).

I'm not sure how many people are planning on keeping Sandi for the entire year, but I'm not. Most people I would assume will want to trade him when he has his bye. For me, as soon as he has made enough cash (hopefully around the 500k mark) and one of Goldy/Minson has dropped a bit, I'll make the switch.

[Sabretooth Tigers]

 ::)
Have Leuenberger and Sandilands with Thurlow and Nankervis ATM. Playing with the idea of playing Dixon up forward and then when I fill my team having him and Thurlow as emergencies. Think I would have to trade very well to get to that stage but it's the current line of thought. Cheers. ;)

[tor01doc]

Well this thread has certainly changed my opinion!
See you later Hale, get the hell out of my forward line you bum!!

Be nice. I work with his mother - nice lady.

[Marstar]

That's where we differ in terms of what they will score. I expect about an 85 average from Hale, which isn't good enough. And as you said about Dixon not having ruck duties, I feel this will prevent him from averaging over 90.

He averaged 83 last year so either way you're admitting you are getting value for money, but most importantly and relevant to this thread ... you have a reliable back-up.

I'm not sure how many people are planning on keeping Sandi for the entire year, but I'm not. Most people I would assume will want to trade him when he has his bye. For me, as soon as he has made enough cash (hopefully around the 500k mark) and one of Goldy/Minson has dropped a bit, I'll make the switch.

That's a bit counter intuitive. If he gets to 500K by round 9 then he's likely health, fit and firing and still raising in value. Why would you sideways trade to Goldy who has dropped, all because of an arbitrary bye in round 8? (Minson shares the same bye).

Most people aren't planning on keeping him for the whole year because they don't believe he will last the whole year, but are hoping he will last long enough to make money to be moved on if/when he breaks down.

I still conclude that if you want cover for Sandi and there is no reliable R3, then Hale is viable and valuable the moment Sandi gets rested/injured. If you don't value the flexibility and reliability of the DPP then sure I agree Hale is neither a premium,  break-out contender or cash cow.

[Big Mac]

In reality, Sandi might not get rested, there might be adequate R3 to cover etc etc etc. However I disagree on so many levels with many of the comments so far.

In theory:

a) The point of DDP is having flexibility and assurance.  Any donut in the rucks is potentially a loss of about ~3ppg* over the whole season (*assuming a fwd bench cover average of 63ppg). More than one donut and it becomes cumulative.

b) Hale IMO is are slightly undervalued. I believe he is capable of increasing his average to 90-95 this year.  Dixon i find harder to predict as he may not have rucking duties this year, however Dixon can potentially outscore Hale and would be similarly under-priced atm.  Personally I'm going with Hale.

Add the two scenarios together and should Sandi get rested 2 weeks for the whole year, those without cover will have lost ~6ppg*. Those with Hale and Sandi will not have. Effectively Hale has netted you 96-101 points ppg as a result (based on my predicted 2014 average).

c) If you are prepared to 'burn a trade to maintain solid rucks' anyway and Sandi becomes a keeper, then use that 'burned trade' on Hale (who won't lose money) for a fallen premium forward or on a breakout forward (E.g. Wingard 2013) at your discretion.

When you make these calculations you also have to consider the points you are losing by starting Hale over someone like Franklin/Pavlich/Wingard/Roughead/Parker/Mitchell (seem to be popular F3-F4 options). I highly doubt Hale will be in the top 3 highest scoring forwards (With Dangerfield and Martin) at the end of this year.

[Danzac]

In reality, Sandi might not get rested, there might be adequate R3 to cover etc etc etc. However I disagree on so many levels with many of the comments so far.

In theory:

a) The point of DDP is having flexibility and assurance.  Any donut in the rucks is potentially a loss of about ~3ppg* over the whole season (*assuming a fwd bench cover average of 63ppg). More than one donut and it becomes cumulative.

b) Hale IMO is are slightly undervalued. I believe he is capable of increasing his average to 90-95 this year.  Dixon i find harder to predict as he may not have rucking duties this year, however Dixon can potentially outscore Hale and would be similarly under-priced atm.  Personally I'm going with Hale.

Add the two scenarios together and should Sandi get rested 2 weeks for the whole year, those without cover will have lost ~6ppg*. Those with Hale and Sandi will not have. Effectively Hale has netted you 96-101 points ppg as a result (based on my predicted 2014 average).

c) If you are prepared to 'burn a trade to maintain solid rucks' anyway and Sandi becomes a keeper, then use that 'burned trade' on Hale (who won't lose money) for a fallen premium forward or on a breakout forward (E.g. Wingard 2013) at your discretion.

When you make these calculations you also have to consider the points you are losing by starting Hale over someone like Franklin/Pavlich/Wingard/Roughead/Parker/Mitchell (seem to be popular F3-F4 options). I highly doubt Hale will be in the top 3 highest scoring forwards (With Dangerfield and Martin) at the end of this year.

I've got Hale as my F5. I think he can be a top 10 forward this year and the peace of mind with regards to Sandi resting is worth it. If I decide to go totally gamble-y with Hickey/Sandi, Hale could be worth his weight in gold

[elephants]

Currently going filthy unique.

Sandi, Hickey (Hampson, King)

Basically I will loophole Hickey/Hampson every week and battle to try get an 80+ score. I am backing both these lads to make some dough so hopefully before the byes I have three ruckmen worth ~400k to cull 8)

Chances are of course, if a suitable rookie ruck is named, I will back out on the eve of round 1 :P

[GoLions]

That's where we differ in terms of what they will score. I expect about an 85 average from Hale, which isn't good enough. And as you said about Dixon not having ruck duties, I feel this will prevent him from averaging over 90.

He averaged 83 last year so either way you're admitting you are getting value for money, but most importantly and relevant to this thread ... you have a reliable back-up.

I'm not sure how many people are planning on keeping Sandi for the entire year, but I'm not. Most people I would assume will want to trade him when he has his bye. For me, as soon as he has made enough cash (hopefully around the 500k mark) and one of Goldy/Minson has dropped a bit, I'll make the switch.

That's a bit counter intuitive. If he gets to 500K by round 9 then he's likely health, fit and firing and still raising in value. Why would you sideways trade to Goldy who has dropped, all because of an arbitrary bye in round 8? (Minson shares the same bye).

Most people aren't planning on keeping him for the whole year because they don't believe he will last the whole year, but are hoping he will last long enough to make money to be moved on if/when he breaks down.

I still conclude that if you want cover for Sandi and there is no reliable R3, then Hale is viable and valuable the moment Sandi gets rested/injured. If you don't value the flexibility and reliability of the DPP then sure I agree Hale is neither a premium,  break-out contender or cash cow.

Increasing your average by 2 ppg is hardly value for money. And I'd have to use a trade on both him AND Sandi during the year, instead of just Sandi. Not really fussed about the backup. If Sandi gets injured, you have to trade him either way. And if he's rested, I have the time to make a trade either to a mid-pricer who can make me some cash, or do a double trade and bring in a premium ruck.

Sandi is more likely to get rested after his bye when the Dockers have an easier draw. Also, it takes a lot of stress off me if I have someone like Goldy in my rucks instead of Sandi. And trust me, if I had the cash, I'd be starting 2 premium rucks from the get go. And I didn't say I was going to trade Sandi when he has his bye, I said I'll trade him when he's made enough cash and one of the top rucks have bottomed out. It's the exact same concept as Daisy and Suckling. When they get to a high enough price, trade for guys like Selwood or Hanley who have dropped a fair bit in price due to one or 2 below par games.

If you see Hale as a keeper then that's fine, or as bench cover for the end of the year. If you don't, and plan on trading him at some point, I just see it as a wasted trade tbh.

[Marstar]

When you make these calculations you also have to consider the points you are losing by starting Hale over someone like Franklin/Pavlich/Wingard/Roughead/Parker/Mitchell (seem to be popular F3-F4 options). I highly doubt Hale will be in the top 3 highest scoring forwards (With Dangerfield and Martin) at the end of this year.

Wingard/Roughead are significantly more expensive to balance that equation, and to a lesser extent so is Franklin.

I know what I'm getting with Hale, where as Mitchell is a risk/reward decision based on historic 2nd year blues. Parker was on the cards till the eye injury.

Pav is a perfect comparison however and with some coin to spare.  Pav may very well outscore Hale and by more than 3ppg.

That decision is what will separate us :)

p.s. no1 was claiming Hale will finish in the top3. It was clearly otherwise.

[Marstar]

Increasing your average by 2 ppg is hardly value for money.

I believe he will increase by 10, the 2 was based on your own prediction remember :)

[T Dog]

Just play Hale as your R2 from the start?

[tor01doc]

Just play Hale as your R2 from the start?

You are so funny, T Dog.  ;D  ;D

[Marstar]

Just play Hale as your R2 from the start?

And have Dixon as cover up forward? That's genius !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

/opens_SC

[T Dog]

Just play Hale as your R2 from the start?

And have Dixon as cover up forward? That's genius !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

/opens_SC

Now we're firing...i have seen worse options.... ;D