Nic Nat, time is running out..

Started by shorty3264, February 26, 2014, 10:52:42 AM

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Ricochet

Exactly. So if WCE were playing this week we could wait and see if NicNat was going to start as sub and if he was we would have plenty of options next week.

The_Captain

Quote from: GoLions16 on March 12, 2014, 02:43:09 PM
Quote from: noto07 on March 12, 2014, 02:39:57 PM
Quote from: Ricochet on March 12, 2014, 02:14:42 PM
flower I wish WCE were playing this week. Would make the decision much easier

But SC has rolling lockout doesnt it Rico???
Yeah but let's say you pick Lobbe or someone else from week 1, you can't change that player for NicNat if he isn't named or is the sub week 2.

yeahhh true.. Just have to go with another premo ruck playing in the second week then. There is more games in the second week anyway. So could be worse  8)

GoLions

Also, if people really want NicNat but aren't sure if he'll play, be the sub etc...

Pick Minson or Cox, they play in the same game. If NicNat is a late out, or is named as the starting sub, then leave your rucks as is. If he is named and isn't the sub, downgrade to him and pocket the cash to use for early upgrades.

GCSkiwi

Quote from: hawkers65 on March 12, 2014, 02:13:57 PM
I'd love to pick NicNat now that he is meant to be playing but to do so you need to have at least 60k (For Cox, way more for Mino) spare in order for if he was a late out or started as the sub (May keep him if sub though) and i just can't find that much cash. Sucks that he is last game! In saying that i might risk it and take NicNat over Leuey...

Quote from: GoLions16 on March 12, 2014, 02:45:14 PM
Also, if people really want NicNat but aren't sure if he'll play, be the sub etc...

Pick Minson or Cox, they play in the same game. If NicNat is a late out, or is named as the starting sub, then leave your rucks as is. If he is named and isn't the sub, downgrade to him and pocket the cash to use for early upgrades.

Yeah I currently have Cox and enough cash to pick up Minno if I wanted him... Just not sold yet. I just wish Collingwood weren't playing so far away from WCE! I have Cotchin and Cox currently, if I can select NicNat instead then I have the cash to turn Cotchin into Pendles. However I won't know about NictNat until after Pendles and Cotchin have played! booooo!

The_Captain

Quote from: GoLions16 on March 12, 2014, 02:45:14 PM
Also, if people really want NicNat but aren't sure if he'll play, be the sub etc...

Pick Minson or Cox, they play in the same game. If NicNat is a late out, or is named as the starting sub, then leave your rucks as is. If he is named and isn't the sub, downgrade to him and pocket the cash to use for early upgrades.


Spottttt on. Top Idea.


Cox would be a awesome option if nicnat pulls out!! But then score would drop of course when he comes back

Ricochet

Quote from: noto07 on March 12, 2014, 02:51:18 PM
Quote from: GoLions16 on March 12, 2014, 02:45:14 PM
Also, if people really want NicNat but aren't sure if he'll play, be the sub etc...

Pick Minson or Cox, they play in the same game. If NicNat is a late out, or is named as the starting sub, then leave your rucks as is. If he is named and isn't the sub, downgrade to him and pocket the cash to use for early upgrades.


Spottttt on. Top Idea.


Cox would be a awesome option if nicnat pulls out!! But then score would drop of course when he comes back
Yeh thats my only issue with this. Perfect idea for R1 but long term Cox will probably drop a bit when NicNat gets up and going.

The_Captain

Quote from: Ricochet on March 12, 2014, 02:52:49 PM
Quote from: noto07 on March 12, 2014, 02:51:18 PM
Quote from: GoLions16 on March 12, 2014, 02:45:14 PM
Also, if people really want NicNat but aren't sure if he'll play, be the sub etc...

Pick Minson or Cox, they play in the same game. If NicNat is a late out, or is named as the starting sub, then leave your rucks as is. If he is named and isn't the sub, downgrade to him and pocket the cash to use for early upgrades.


Spottttt on. Top Idea.


Cox would be a awesome option if nicnat pulls out!! But then score would drop of course when he comes back
Yeh thats my only issue with this. Perfect idea for R1 but long term Cox will probably drop a bit when NicNat gets up and going.

Yeah makes it tough... Maybe Minson then? But he is premiummm price. Not sure he will hold his value. But still think he will average 100+ though. Could go like McEvoy or Luenburger also. Goldstein, Ryder and Jacobs also other good second week options.

no eye deer

Quote from: noto07 on March 12, 2014, 02:56:11 PM
Quote from: Ricochet on March 12, 2014, 02:52:49 PM
Quote from: noto07 on March 12, 2014, 02:51:18 PM
Quote from: GoLions16 on March 12, 2014, 02:45:14 PM
Also, if people really want NicNat but aren't sure if he'll play, be the sub etc...

Pick Minson or Cox, they play in the same game. If NicNat is a late out, or is named as the starting sub, then leave your rucks as is. If he is named and isn't the sub, downgrade to him and pocket the cash to use for early upgrades.


Spottttt on. Top Idea.


Cox would be a awesome option if nicnat pulls out!! But then score would drop of course when he comes back
Yeh thats my only issue with this. Perfect idea for R1 but long term Cox will probably drop a bit when NicNat gets up and going.

Goldstein, Ryder and Jacobs also other good second week options.

Yeah, but all will play before we find out if NicNat is vested :(

GoLions

Quote from: Ricochet on March 12, 2014, 02:52:49 PM
Quote from: noto07 on March 12, 2014, 02:51:18 PM
Quote from: GoLions16 on March 12, 2014, 02:45:14 PM
Also, if people really want NicNat but aren't sure if he'll play, be the sub etc...

Pick Minson or Cox, they play in the same game. If NicNat is a late out, or is named as the starting sub, then leave your rucks as is. If he is named and isn't the sub, downgrade to him and pocket the cash to use for early upgrades.


Spottttt on. Top Idea.


Cox would be a awesome option if nicnat pulls out!! But then score would drop of course when he comes back
Yeh thats my only issue with this. Perfect idea for R1 but long term Cox will probably drop a bit when NicNat gets up and going.
I'll use 2012 as an example to compare them when playing together, as that's when NicNat had a full season. Left column is NicNat, right column is Cox, and I have bolded the matches where Cox did better than NicNat;
RD1 - 105 vs 110
RD2 - 108 vs 82
RD3 - 101 vs 101 (equal)
RD4 - 102 vs 96
RD5 - 112 vs 82
RD6 - DNP vs 141
RD7 - DNP vs 135
RD8 - 108 vs 139
RD9 - 94 vs 68
RD10 - 108 vs 97
RD12 - 185 vs 132
RD13 - 76 vs 119
RD14 - 116 vs 134
RD15 - 120 vs 215
RD16 - 66 vs 74
RD17 - 111 vs 76
RD18 - 164 vs 121
RD19 - 81 vs 76
RD20 - 153 vs 190
RD21 - 94 vs 104
RD22 - 163 vs 84
RD23 - 109 vs 81
EF - 125 vs 148
SF - 91 vs 98

So in 22 games playing together, Cox outscored NicNat in 10 of them, and equaled him once. He got two 100+ scores when NicNat scored more, both of these being 120+ actually. Also a 97 and a 96. Scores of 141 and 135 when NicNat didn't play, and I'd be surprised if NicNat played every game.

Ricochet

Quote from: GoLions16 on March 12, 2014, 03:13:09 PM
Quote from: Ricochet on March 12, 2014, 02:52:49 PM
Quote from: noto07 on March 12, 2014, 02:51:18 PM
Quote from: GoLions16 on March 12, 2014, 02:45:14 PM
Also, if people really want NicNat but aren't sure if he'll play, be the sub etc...

Pick Minson or Cox, they play in the same game. If NicNat is a late out, or is named as the starting sub, then leave your rucks as is. If he is named and isn't the sub, downgrade to him and pocket the cash to use for early upgrades.


Spottttt on. Top Idea.


Cox would be a awesome option if nicnat pulls out!! But then score would drop of course when he comes back
Yeh thats my only issue with this. Perfect idea for R1 but long term Cox will probably drop a bit when NicNat gets up and going.
I'll use 2012 as an example to compare them when playing together, as that's when NicNat had a full season. Left column is NicNat, right column is Cox, and I have bolded the matches where Cox did better than NicNat;
RD1 - 105 vs 110
RD2 - 108 vs 82
RD3 - 101 vs 101 (equal)
RD4 - 102 vs 96
RD5 - 112 vs 82
RD6 - DNP vs 141
RD7 - DNP vs 135
RD8 - 108 vs 139
RD9 - 94 vs 68
RD10 - 108 vs 97
RD12 - 185 vs 132
RD13 - 76 vs 119
RD14 - 116 vs 134
RD15 - 120 vs 215
RD16 - 66 vs 74
RD17 - 111 vs 76
RD18 - 164 vs 121
RD19 - 81 vs 76
RD20 - 153 vs 190
RD21 - 94 vs 104
RD22 - 163 vs 84
RD23 - 109 vs 81
EF - 125 vs 148
SF - 91 vs 98

So in 22 games playing together, Cox outscored NicNat in 10 of them, and equaled him once. He got two 100+ scores when NicNat scored more, both of these being 120+ actually. Also a 97 and a 96. Scores of 141 and 135 when NicNat didn't play, and I'd be surprised if NicNat played every game.
I'm more worried that with NicNat playing he only averaged 98 last year.

GoLions

For the record, I'm not starting him, going with Goldy instead. But I see Cox and Minson as great picks as well, and having one of them to drop to NicNat before the match starts if you want to take the risk seems like a pretty decent way to go about it.

GoLions

Quote from: Ricochet on March 12, 2014, 03:19:37 PM
I'm more worried that with NicNat playing he only averaged 98 last year.
The games that Cox did bad in last year while NicNat was playing were in rounds 15, 16, and 17. In these games he scored 83, 70, 70 respectively. IN THOSE SAME GAMES NicNat scored 79, 69, 78.

The_Captain

SO lock in the NAT Cox combo!!!!

Ricochet

Quote from: GoLions16 on March 12, 2014, 03:24:36 PM
Quote from: Ricochet on March 12, 2014, 03:19:37 PM
I'm more worried that with NicNat playing he only averaged 98 last year.
The games that Cox did bad in last year while NicNat was playing were in rounds 15, 16, and 17. In these games he scored 83, 70, 70 respectively. IN THOSE SAME GAMES NicNat scored 79, 69, 78.
Yeh but NicNat was battling groin issues all year man so can't really compare to him

GCSkiwi

Quote from: GoLions16 on March 12, 2014, 03:24:36 PM
Quote from: Ricochet on March 12, 2014, 03:19:37 PM
I'm more worried that with NicNat playing he only averaged 98 last year.
The games that Cox did bad in last year while NicNat was playing were in rounds 15, 16, and 17. In these games he scored 83, 70, 70 respectively. IN THOSE SAME GAMES NicNat scored 79, 69, 78.

I've pointed out in RD's ruck thread that if you take out these games Cox's average drops to 105 with NicNat in... with a season average of 107... OMG massive points loss yo!

Quote from: GoLions16 on March 12, 2014, 03:13:09 PM
I'll use 2012 as an example to compare them when playing together, as that's when NicNat had a full season. Left column is NicNat, right column is Cox, and I have bolded the matches where Cox did better than NicNat;
RD1 - 105 vs 110
RD2 - 108 vs 82
RD3 - 101 vs 101
RD4 - 102 vs 96
RD5 - 112 vs 82
RD6 - DNP vs 141
RD7 - DNP vs 135
RD8 - 108 vs 139
RD9 - 94 vs 68
RD10 - 108 vs 97
RD12 - 185 vs 132
RD13 - 76 vs 119
RD14 - 116 vs 134
RD15 - 120 vs 215
RD16 - 66 vs 74
RD17 - 111 vs 76
RD18 - 164 vs 121
RD19 - 81 vs 76
RD20 - 153 vs 190
RD21 - 94 vs 104
RD22 - 163 vs 84
RD23 - 109 vs 81
EF - 125 vs 148
SF - 91 vs 98

So in 22 games playing together, Cox outscored NicNat in 10 of them, and equaled him once. He got two 100+ scores when NicNat scored more, both of these being 120+ actually. Also a 97 and a 96. Scores of 141 and 135 when NicNat didn't play, and I'd be surprised if NicNat played every game.

I tried this route GL, everyone's convinced NicNat will take points off Cox despite the evidence actually suggesting otherwise. I think it is true to a very very very small degree, as in 1-2ppg, certainly not the catastrophic collapse that seems to be the prevalent mindset. Even the numbers from last year back it up. I've changed your markings to indicate games where they both went 105+, I think we could all be happy with that from a ruckman... Sure there are games where they have a big difference in score but I think you're a bit of a muppet if you have a cry about 132 just because NicNat got 189 (as in round 12). You still got 132...  ::)

Quote from: GoLions16 on March 12, 2014, 03:20:18 PM
For the record, I'm not starting him, going with Goldy instead. But I see Cox and Minson as great picks as well, and having one of them to drop to NicNat before the match starts if you want to take the risk seems like a pretty decent way to go about it.

Goldy is also my favourite but I just can't handle another round 8 prem in my side :(