Gunston & Shaw

[diamw90]

Hi guys, ended up forgetting my details from last 4-5 years so had to make a new profile.

Two questions;

1. Is anyone considering Jack Gunston as a possibly F4 and if so/not why?
2. I havent heard many people talking about having Heath Shaw in your teams again, why?

Thanks lads, ladettes!

[hawkers65]

Hi guys, ended up forgetting my details from last 4-5 years so had to make a new profile.

Two questions;

1. Is anyone considering Jack Gunston as a possibly F4 and if so/not why?
2. I havent heard many people talking about having Heath Shaw in your teams again, why?

Thanks lads, ladettes!

My previously expressed view

"Gunston is going to be a huge POD, most just don't understand what a jet he is and at only 22. Loves the big stage and Franklin leaving is amazing for him! Most immediately assume he'll gain the better defender but that couldn't be further from the truth. With the inclusion of McEvoy it allows us to use Hale as a permo fwd with the occasional chop out for McEvoy (Won't be too often as McCca plays a large % of mins) this is by far his better role and the opposition would be crazy to run their 3rd tall on Hale, they would be giving up a ridiculous amount of marks inside 50's! Which leaves gunno with the 3rd which he can more than easily cop with. Also don't forget he averaged a tick over 100 from round 7 onwards including finals!!!! At just 21! My tip, 60+ goals and at a bare minimum of 95 supercoach average, with the ability to push 105. My prediction of 98 puts him in the top 8ish of last year and even that makes him a keeper. Even if I don't bring him in for Dusty he'll find his way in I'm sure whether it be through Pav or Franklin missing or just another premium fwd added. People are nuts to not be considering heavily!"

After this he has found his way in for Franklin, this cash gained allowed me to also go Ellis to JMart

[Ricochet]

There is a lot of an unknown around Gunston with Buddy leaving and that is why many are staying away. At an 83ave from last year he would have to average 100+ to a) be a top end premo and b) make enough cash to be a viable option. Unless you see him going 100-105+ it is much safer to pick him up later as you won't lose out on much of a price rise (if he does break into premo status).

A lot of people are also concerned with how Shaw will go in a weaker side and if he will get tagged more. And much like Gunston, a 96ave from last year means you will not lost out on much of a price rise if he does go 100 again.

The risks involved with these two players outweighs the reward so thats why quite a few are staying away

[hawkers65]

There is a lot of an unknown around Gunston with Buddy leaving and that is why many are staying away. At an 83ave from last year he would have to average 100+ to a) be a top end premo and b) make enough cash to be a viable option. Unless you see him going 100-105+ it is much safer to pick him up later as you won't lose out on much of a price rise (if he does break into premo status).

A lot of people are also concerned with how Shaw will go in a weaker side and if he will get tagged more. And much like Gunston, a 96ave from last year means you will not lost out on much of a price rise if he does go 100 again.

The risks involved with these two players outweighs the reward so thats why quite a few are staying away

Gunston averaged 83 and my prediction of 98 puts him at 15+ on last year and keeper status.

Others are going for Franklin who is priced at 90 and with lots are tipping  105, same, same; 15+ on last year.

So IMO that makes Gunston earning a little more cash and still receiving keeper status, with the added bonus of taking Martin who will score me more points and perhaps make more cash then a sub 160k rookie with shaky JS. Which makes me want to pick Gunston.

Yes Franklin could potentially go 110-115, but he also could stay at 90-95 odd, while Gunston is almost definitely going to improve on last year, as i see him well under priced due to his subbed/settling in period from Rnd 1-6, just to go 100+ from  Rnd 7 onwards all the way up to the granny.

My final predictions:

Gunston: 98
Franklin: 102

and therefore i'd rather a more consistant and cheaper Gunston. But obviously im in a minority and kind of happy its that way.

[Ricochet]

Yeh but Buddy is more proven so is the safer pick. Gunston is an unknown without Buddy in the team. I also think he will improve but by how much is the question.

[hawkers65]

Yeh but Buddy is more proven so is the safer pick. Gunston is an unknown without Buddy in the team. I also think he will improve but by how much is the question.

Yeah he is, but an average of 100 over his last 18 games doesn't exactly mean Gunston is unproven, yes without Franklin, but like i expressed earlier, its will be Hale taking Franklin's defender, not Gunston.

[Ricochet]

Yeh but Buddy is more proven so is the safer pick. Gunston is an unknown without Buddy in the team. I also think he will improve but by how much is the question.

Yeah he is, but an average of 100 over his last 18 games doesn't exactly mean Gunston is unproven, yes without Franklin, but like i expressed earlier, its will be Hale taking Franklin's defender, not Gunston.

But thats not guaranteed. Teams may see Gunston as more of a threat than Hale. Its just an unknown, hence why others are safer options.

18 games isn't enough to base an estimation. 2+ years are. And he actually averaged 95 over his last 18 including finals, which still is good, but not enough to be a viable option in terms of value.

[hawkers65]

Yeh but Buddy is more proven so is the safer pick. Gunston is an unknown without Buddy in the team. I also think he will improve but by how much is the question.

Yeah he is, but an average of 100 over his last 18 games doesn't exactly mean Gunston is unproven, yes without Franklin, but like i expressed earlier, its will be Hale taking Franklin's defender, not Gunston.

But thats not guaranteed. Teams may see Gunston as more of a threat than Hale. Its just an unknown, hence why others are safer options.

18 games isn't enough to base an estimation. 2+ years are. And he actually averaged 95 over his last 18 including finals, which still is good, but not enough to be a viable option in terms of value.

I'm not saying Hale is more of a threat, its his size, no way a third tall can play on a guy over 200cm and 105kg, they would be much more suited to a 190cm guy weighing 82kg.

Hahhaha sorry! my bad, thought i worked it to 100 a week ago, that is slightly less appealing

[Ricochet]

Yeh but Buddy is more proven so is the safer pick. Gunston is an unknown without Buddy in the team. I also think he will improve but by how much is the question.

Yeah he is, but an average of 100 over his last 18 games doesn't exactly mean Gunston is unproven, yes without Franklin, but like i expressed earlier, its will be Hale taking Franklin's defender, not Gunston.

But thats not guaranteed. Teams may see Gunston as more of a threat than Hale. Its just an unknown, hence why others are safer options.

18 games isn't enough to base an estimation. 2+ years are. And he actually averaged 95 over his last 18 including finals, which still is good, but not enough to be a viable option in terms of value.

I'm not saying Hale is more of a threat its his size, no way a third tall can play on a guy over 200cm and 105kg, they would be much more suited to a 190cm guy weighing 82kg.

Hahhaha sorry! my bad, thought i worker it to 100 a week ago, that is slightly less appealing

Yeh I'm not saying he won't be a star but at his current average you can not start with him and upgrade to him without losing out on much cash. Safer to wait and see. If he does go 100+ he costs you an extra 70-80k on his starting price. He doesn't and you don't miss out.

[hawkers65]

Yeh but Buddy is more proven so is the safer pick. Gunston is an unknown without Buddy in the team. I also think he will improve but by how much is the question.

Yeah he is, but an average of 100 over his last 18 games doesn't exactly mean Gunston is unproven, yes without Franklin, but like i expressed earlier, its will be Hale taking Franklin's defender, not Gunston.

But thats not guaranteed. Teams may see Gunston as more of a threat than Hale. Its just an unknown, hence why others are safer options.

18 games isn't enough to base an estimation. 2+ years are. And he actually averaged 95 over his last 18 including finals, which still is good, but not enough to be a viable option in terms of value.

I'm not saying Hale is more of a threat its his size, no way a third tall can play on a guy over 200cm and 105kg, they would be much more suited to a 190cm guy weighing 82kg.

Hahhaha sorry! my bad, thought i worker it to 100 a week ago, that is slightly less appealing

Yeh I'm not saying he won't be a star but at his current average you can not start with him and upgrade to him without losing out on much cash. Safer to wait and see. If he does go 100+ he costs you an extra 70-80k on his starting price. He doesn't and you don't miss out.

Just did it again and got 96.9 so your right, same can be done with Franklin, an extra 70k odd will be gained if he went 105ish. Apart from my sturture my picks are pretty cookie cuter style, so maybe Gunston over Franklin can be my slight difference ;) Will be interesting to see what that 37 was about! Other than that he was extremely consistent and averaged over the 100 mark from that last 18 (maybe that was what i did)

[Ricochet]

I stil get 95.2 lol
http://www.fanfooty.com.au/players/year.php?firstname=Jack&surname=Gunston&year=2013

Doesn't matter. Yeh I'm keen to see how Hawthorn as a whole go without Buddy

[hawkers65]

Hahahahah!

Looked into it and he just had an absolute shocker in the big defeat against Richmond, strange as apart from that he only went under 80 twice (70 and 73) Other forwards scores on that day Roughy 67, Franklin 54, Bruest 53, Rioli 46...

[diamw90]

brilliant read lads. was out so only got to read up now. ATM i have both Buddy & Gunston... will leave me with a just above average defence but from my history or playing 5-6 years starting without a great defense isnt the worst that can happen to you.

If you dont mind lads suss out my first(ish) draft of my team and give me a heads up... happy to help out too with yours!

http://forum.fanfooty.com.au/index.php/topic,89285.0.html

[Vinny]

But would you go Gunston or Pav?

[diamw90]

Ive heard the Pavlich hype of "running the house down" just like higgins does every year. Hes good... but if i had to pick one of them id go gunston. Freo has picked up sylvia, gumbleton... to add to there FWD line of mayne etc.. meaning IMO they will have the added luxury of resting PAV more often so they may end up averaging similar 90+ (hopefully) i have a feeling PAV is going to miss games and you know *touch wood* gunston will play 22games.