Rico's Advice Thread

[Ricochet]

Now that we are in business and SuperCoach is open I'm free to give advice if you need it.

I have been following most teams/players preseasons pretty closely and was top 100 in SC for most of last year until a poor last round score going for a Hail Mary.

So ask away and I'll get to them when I can :)


My concerns on a few popular picks
- Lobbe: For me the risk with Lobbe is too high in 2014. He had a great finish to 2013 but in most the games he scored well in he competed against inexperienced ruckmen. At 464k he would need to average 100+ to be a viable pick, putting him in the top 4 rucks. For the price and hopeful return, the value just isn't there.

- Zorko: For his role he is one of best players in the league, unfortunately this role is not great for fantasy scoring. He is 2nd to only Mayne for forward 50 pressure acts. Because of this I do not see Leppa releasing Zorko into the midfield like his debut season. Since his debut year Brissie have also added Moloney to that midfield group.

- Grundy: Relying on a 2nd year player to pump out premo numbers is just too much to ask. Especially when most ruckmen aren't AFL ready until 22+. Yes they will back him in at the Pies most the year but the value just isn't there. In his debut year he only went over 76 once and will need to average 87+ to make 100k and be a viable pick. I can't see that happening especially early on when Collingwood face Freo, Sydney, Geelong in the first three rounds. No doubt he will be a star one day but he is cheap for a reason.

- Wingard: Had an amazing year in 2013 but he has a much tougher draw in 2014 and will certainly cop a lot more attention I cannot see any improvement. In 2013 he averaged only 83 against the top 8 sides and 111 against the bottom 9. This year Port face Freo twice, Sydney twice and Cartlon twice, and more top 8 sides than last year. As much of a star this kid is/will be, expect him to go backwards slightly in 2014.

[WizzFizz]

Which mid price forward would be the best pick?

Gunston, Zorko, Pav

[Ricochet]

Which mid price forward would be the best pick?

Gunston, Zorko, Pav

Zorko plays the small fwd role too well. Unfortunately this role isn't great for fantasy. His pressure inside the fwd 50 is the best in the league so I cannot see the Lions releasing him back into that midfield role he had in his debut season. Also with a midfield of Rocky, Redden, Moloney, Rich it'll be even harder to get decent midfield time.

Gunston will be a star don't get me wrong but he is still a class below Pavlich. Now that Buddy has gone it will be interesting to see if he cope with the extra attention and build on his career best average of 83 from last year.

Pav in a heart beat mate. He has been fantasy royalty for many years and is enjoying a good preseaosn so far to date. Compared to last year where he had injuries during preaseason, came back underdone due to it and then struggled to get fit during the season. Apart from last year he has never averaged under 99 and his SC stats of the past decade are comparable to no-one bar NRoo. Don't let age scare you either because we saw what NRoo produced this year in a much weaker team.

[hoon1]

Grimes, Pavlich and Nic Nat or McKenzie, Gunston and Lobbe?

[Ricochet]

Grimes, Pavlich and Nic Nat or McKenzie, Gunston and Lobbe?

Grimes, Pavlich and NicNat by a mile mate.

McKenzie is missing a month of training with an ankle so may be a little underdone going into the season. Gunston is unproven and we are yet to see how he copes with the attention without Buddy. Lobbe is also unproven and even though he finished off the year strong it was against some pretty weak opposition ruckmen.

Pavlich is a proven gun as I mentioned in the post above. NicNat is back into full training now after being managed. WCE also have a dream start to the year with Bullies, Melbourne, Saints to start. Grimes should also thrive under Roos and there is talk he will move back to his role across half back where he scores very well.

[hoon1]

Thanks mate!
Could I also get you opinion on my team:

Ive actually decided on this team:

Def: McVeigh, Mitchell, Grimes, Swallow, Suckling, McDonald (Fuller, Cutler)
Mid: Ablett, Pendlebury, Murphy, Beams, Thomas, Martin, Michie, Ellis (Taylor, Dunstan)
Ruck: Nic Nat, Sandilands (Nankervis, Thurlow)
For: Dangerfield, Martin, Franklin, Pavlich, Clark, Garlett (JKH, Honeychurch)

Money Remaining: $1,800

Byes:
Round 8: 8 Round 9: 9 Round 10: 13

[Ricochet]

Thanks mate!
Could I also get you opinion on my team:

Ive actually decided on this team:

Def: McVeigh, Mitchell, Grimes, Swallow, Suckling, McDonald (Fuller, Cutler)
Mid: Ablett, Pendlebury, Murphy, Beams, Thomas, Martin, Michie, Ellis (Taylor, Dunstan)
Ruck: Nic Nat, Sandilands (Nankervis, Thurlow)
For: Dangerfield, Martin, Franklin, Pavlich, Clark, Garlett (JKH, Honeychurch)

Money Remaining: $1,800

Byes:
Round 8: 8 Round 9: 9 Round 10: 13

Of course mate.

DEF: Great line with 2 top end premos, a couple of underpriced premos and a breakout contender in Swallow. I would also consider Birchall.
MIDS: Again another good line. Murphy, Beams and Thomas all represent great value and your rookies are solid also.
RUCKS: Perfect. The same as mine and many others
FWDS: Danger and Martin are top end premos and both Franklin and Pav are underpriced proven premos. If Clark isn't fit R1 then look to Fasolo, Rohan, Higgins, Bock. Garlett is probably the pick of the fwd rookies at this stage and the rest will be more obvious in NAB Challenge.

Overall a very solid team mate. I like your mixture of proven premos, underpriced premos and rookies.

[Jay]

Would love to get the great Ric's advice on my team. My first draft, so dont be too harsh ;) got 28k in the kitty. Cheers man.

[vmac66]

Tks Rico for your thread . .
Was thinking about atley as a breakout contender . .?
Do you think Hanley will be top 6-8 defender . ?
All the hype about lobbe , is he the bargain / breakout people are thinking he will be . .?
Is jobe too good a price to miss out on . .?
Thks Rico , looking forward to your thoughts . .

[benno123]

Would love if you took a look at my side mate. Cheers :)

Nothing like making and entering in that first official squad for the year. Any advice would be great.

Backs: McVeigh, Mitchell, Thompson, Suckling, Kolodjashnij, Laidler (Gardiner, Fuller)

Mids: Ablett, Fyfe, Cotchin, Beams, Thomas, Michie, Ellis, Dunstan (Acres, Garlett)

Rucks: Naitanui, Sandilands (Thurlow, Nankervis)

Forwards: Dangerfield, Martin, Roughead, Franklin, Pavlich, Kersten (Taylor, Kennedy-Harris)

$2,900

[Bill Manspeaker]

McVeigh, Mitchell, Hanley, Suckling, K.Kolodjashnij, McDonald  (Fuller, Battersby)
Ablett, Pendlebury, Murphy, D.Beams, D.Thomas, C.Beams, J.Martin, Michie  (Dunstan, O'Rourke)
Naitanui, Sandilands  (Currie, Brown)
Dangerfield, Martin, Franklin, Chapman, Clark, Rohan  (Markworth, Garlett)

$40,300 remaining

my first crack at SC this year so not sure how this stacks up. any advice is appreciated mate

cheers

[Ricochet]

Would love to get the great Ric's advice on my team. My first draft, so dont be too harsh ;) got 28k in the kitty. Cheers man.

Haha just for you mate

DEF: I have had concern over Bartel's downward trend in fantasy scoring and even though it continued in DT last year his SC improved. I still have some concerns but he has been a genuine premo for so many years so should be well worth the cash. McVeigh is another top end premo along with Hanley and Suckling is underpriced due to injuries. Love the Swallow pick as a breakout contender too, I have been strongly considering him. Rookies are solid also with Laidler easily swapped to McDonald with that extra cash if needed. Fuller is probably the next best rookie defender along with a couple of Bombers boys in Aylett, Edwards and Ashby.

MIDS: Love the mix of top end premos (GAJ and Pendles) and underpriced premos (Murphy, Beams and Thomas). JMartin will be huge this year and well worth the cash. Dunstan is probably the best "cheap" rookie in terms of JS being at the Saints. Love that you have a dpp link with Garlett also.

RUCKS: Same as most and a very solid line. NicNat and Sandi combo represent good value and premo scoring.

FWDS: Again a good mix of proven premos and value with Danger, Martin and Buddy. I'm not 100% sold on Gunston purely because we haven't seen him or the Hawks cope without Buddy over many games. At an 83ave and 447k he would have to  improve to a 100+ average to 1) become a top end premo and/or 2) make you more than 100k. But that's just my criteria for pick breakout contenders. Clark is in doubt for round 1 with Melb yet to state a return date. Consider Rohan, Fasolo, Higgins here.

Overall a very nice team man. Its probably one of the best with nearly an all out Guns and Rooks strategy, with a couple of midpricers chucked in. If all those rookies play from the get go and over the first half of the season you will generate a fair chunk of cash. Personally I have only gone with only 1 rookie defender (on field), 2 mid rooks and Fasolo/Rohan at F6. But with a lot of mid pricers and a lot more risk. It's interesting to see the two different strategies.

[Ricochet]

Tks Rico for your thread . .
Was thinking about atley as a breakout contender . .?
Do you think Hanley will be top 6-8 defender . ?
All the hype about lobbe , is he the bargain / breakout people are thinking he will be . .?
Is jobe too good a price to miss out on . .?
Thks Rico , looking forward to your thoughts . .

No worries mate.

Was thinking about atley as a breakout contender . .? At 394k there is a bit too much risk for me mate. To be a viable selection as a breakout pick he would need to average in the early 90s to make 100k. This is on par with guys like Adcock. Personally I see a nice improvement of 10ish points but not enough to pick him at that price.
Do you think Hanley will be top 6-8 defender . ? Yes quite easily a top 8, and even top 5.
All the hype about lobbe , is he the bargain / breakout people are thinking he will be . .? I'm not sold on him. I think he has another year or two under his belt before he'll join the top end premos. His finish to the year was good but it was against Blicavs/Vardy, Grundy, Gorringe and a tough one against ZClarke. There's also the concern that Redden will play along side him, affecting his scores.
Is jobe too good a price to miss out on . .? On par with Cotchin in terms of value and what they can produce. Unfortunately I couldn't fit him in but yes he is a very good pick.

[Jay]

Thanks for that, Ric :) love your work.

Quick question regarding replacing Clark. Who would you go out of Rohan, Fasolo and Higgins? Its tough, none really jump out at me but probably the best 3 options in the mid-range category... Or would you consider Hogan or Bock?

[Ricochet]

Would love if you took a look at my side mate. Cheers :)

Nothing like making and entering in that first official squad for the year. Any advice would be great.

Backs: McVeigh, Mitchell, Thompson, Suckling, Kolodjashnij, Laidler (Gardiner, Fuller)

Mids: Ablett, Fyfe, Cotchin, Beams, Thomas, Michie, Ellis, Dunstan (Acres, Garlett)

Rucks: Naitanui, Sandilands (Thurlow, Nankervis)

Forwards: Dangerfield, Martin, Roughead, Franklin, Pavlich, Kersten (Taylor, Kennedy-Harris)

$2,900

DEF: Great top end picks in McVeigh and Mitchell. Thompson is another top 10 pick. Only concern I have with him is picking a player after his first big breakout year. He has averaged 80s before but never this close to 100. Still he is a solid pick based on last years performance. Suckling is great value here. Personally I don't like play 2 rookies on the field this year. Only because there hasn't been many standout rookies from this line in all the preseason talk but this could change over NAB Challenge.

MIDS: First of all being a Freo guy, love your Fyfe pick. He is super unique. There is a lot of value in this line which I really like. Michie dominated WAFL last year, even though he missed the last few games. He should get the opportunity at the Dees to show what he can do. Your rookies are solid also and like the dpp link.

RUCKS: Again this is a pretty standard setup across quite a few teams and my favourite at that.

FWDS: Very Strong. Danger, Martin, ROughy, Buddy and Pavlich are all proven premos and both Pav and Buddy are great value. Keep an eye on Kersten, he has had an interrupted preseason. Other rookies to consider are Impey and Lloyd.