Some quick stats - GAJ vs Pendles and Beams vs pies midfield

[GCSkiwi]

Hi guys. Seems fairly common that people are debating whether to pick Ablett or Pendles as their M1 and permacaptain contender, and also some concerned about whether Beams drops the output of other pies players, so I crunched some numbers from last year.

First up, GAJ vs Pendles.

Ablett played 21 games for an average of 129 (I'm rounding up or down to the nearest full point). The last few games he was playing with a dodgy knee, indeed his average up until round 19 was 137 - so he dropped 8 points from his average in 5 games, one of which was a massive 167. He only went sub 100 4 times, 3 of which were in that last 5 games, and those sub 100 scores were 67, 90, 97 and 99. He went 120+ 12 times, and 150+ 6 times. HS of 178.

Pendles played 22 games for an average of 127, no real injury issues as far as I can recall. Pendles only went sub 100 twice, for a 92 and a 96. He went 120+ 11 times, 150+ 6 times also. HS of 161.

In comparing their scores head to head, Ablett outscored Pendles 12 times, Pendles outscored Ablett 9 times, and there was the one round which Ablett didn't play that Pendles did - not included in the 12vs 9. In all the games Ablett outscored Pendles, it was by an average of 21 points (range 2-75) while wehn Pendles outscored Ablett it was by an average of 25 (range 5-83).

Verdict: You really can't go wrong with either, let's be honest. Both have the same bye round so that's a non issue, but you would be hard pressed to go past the little master- higher ceiling, and higher average even in spite of a bad tail end. Could even be considered underpriced because of it. Pendles maybe slightly more consistent, but an injury-free Ablett is a force to be reckoned with. The time will come when Pendles takes on the mantle of no.1, and I suspect it may be soon, but Ablett should not be written off just yet...

As for Beams, I noticed as a sort of aside that there is usually a good score churned out buy 3/4 of Pendles, Swan, Beams and Sidey. There were no instances last year where all 4 played and all 4 got tons, though usually it was 3 tons and a 90ish. Anyway, I looked at their averages pre and post round 16 when Beams returned. Pendles went from 128 to 126 when Beams came in, Swanny went from 117 to 117 and Sidey went from 101 to 103. Beams averaged 102 from 7 games after round 16. So I don't really see him as a threat to the others scoring, given that Pendles lost 2 points and Sidey gained 2 points, you're splitting hairs if that's really a big concern to you. No reason you couldn't have Beams and Pendles in the same team as a few seem to have been concerned by.

food for thought...

[Ricochet]

Nice stats there mate, love it.

Also interesting that Sidey's scores go up when Beams was playing. Averages a nice 107.

[_wato]

I wonder what the stats were like from 2011 to 2012 because that's when Beams went from being a good scorer to super premium.

Interesting also that you said Pendlebury's points went down by 2 points on average when Beams made his return. I just had a quick look and his points went down by 5 points per game when Beams turned into a super premium (2011-2012). Beams seems to steal his points in someway and a 5ppg drop is quite big. Without Beams in the first half of this year he bumped up the average from 2012 by 4 points, then went down by two upon his return so his average from last year only improved by two points - (124.8 - 126.5)

But I do like this, it's a very interesting read so well done. Great insight man! I will be going with Ablett and Beams, both too hard to ignore.

[GCSkiwi]

Rico - think tat the effect of Beams on Sidey may be slightly skewed by a 155 in there when it was only 8 games but to be fair he also had a 60odd so that probably cancels out. Sidey might actually be a nice pick if he weren't so inconsistant, he'll go anywhere from 30-160 which is a bit too much stress for my midfield!

Wato, fortunately I'm an app hoarder and I still have the SC apps from 2011 and 2012... I'll see what I can do about figuring out some numbers from then ;)

[GCSkiwi]

Ok so 2012:

GAJ vs Pendles - this was much more clear cut in Ablett's favour really
Pendles 18 games, average 125, sub 100 3 times, 120+ 12 times, 150+ twice, HS 167
GAJ 20 games, average 138, sub 100 twice, 120+ 16 times, 150+ 8 times, HS 189

Head to heads, GAJ dominated, outscoring Pendles 11 times at an average of 39 points more (range 1-120!!!), vs Pendles outscoring Ablett 4 times at an average of 17 points more (range 3-31) - I didn't include any games where one or both weren't playing, as obviously that skews the result.

One thing I haven't taken into account is results vs the same team, so take this with a grain of salt given their stats might have come from playing different teams on the whole...

Beams vs the others, Beams was arguably the best pick of them really:
Beams 21 games, average 123, sub 100 5 times, 120+ 12 times, 150+ 4 times, HS 175
Pendles 18 games, average 125, sub 100 3 times, 120+ 12 times, 150+ twice, HS 167 (as above)
Swan 18 games, average 126, sub 100 3 times, 120+ 8 times, 150+ 3 times, HS 180
Sidey 21 games, average 106, sub 100 9 times, 120+ 5 times, 150+ twice, HS 156

Beams may have had a slightly lower average than Swan or Pendles but played more games total and churned out more big scores. For the actual sub 100 scores, Beams got 67,69,80,80,98, Pendles 62,86,95 and Swan 92,97,97 - but it should go on the record that Beams two 60s were his first two games.

There were only 4 round where all 4 players managed a ton, and they were against Port, WBD, Lions and Hawks - in 2012 Port, WBD and Lions were all pretty woeful, at least port and lions have picked themselves up now. Even then, despite all 4 players tonning up, it was only against the dogs they all managed 110+

The 2011 app is saying they're updating their database, which I suspect really means it's all been deleted so might not be able to provide round by round information. I can tell you that in 2011 Pendles played 21 games for a average of 129, Swan played 21 games for 122, Sidey playe 22 for 83, Beams played 14 for 101, and Ablett played 20 for 127.

[oodmutler]

Superb work GCSkiwi!

[_wato]

Yeah well done mate, as I said before, awesome insight.

Read your last post, and it was very interesting. Don't worry about the 2011 stats, you've done plenty!