Will you start with ablett?

[GCSkiwi]

Ablett SIX TIMES running with his lowest average being 127.

precisely my point! you are saying hes gonna be the there for a 7th straight year?? really? if i tossed a coin 100 times it would land on heads 100 times? - that is inferring that i borrowed said coin off gaz to make it possible with the general consensus.

What kind of comparison is that? You toss up a coin and it has theoretically 50/50 chance of landing heads or tails. What in gods name does that have to do with GAJ being able to score a ton 9.5 weeks out of 10 in SC?

By that sort of logic, you should pick Taylor Hunt as your permacaptain... Hasn't played a full season or averaged over 65 in 5 seasons, so he must be due a good one right? Same with Crowley, sheesh, he's up to 7 years and never averaged 70... total breakout contender right?!? 8th year breakout, average 150 by the end of the year, you heard it here first. How do I know? Because he hasn't done that in 7 years, so he must be about to now!

Heck, while I'm at it, I might place a cheeky $10,000 on the dogs to win the flag, last time was the 1954 VFL premiership so 60 years later they're an absolute certainty this year!

[Ricochet]

How could you not start with GAJ? What's changed? He ain't gonna spend THAT much time forward. No more than he did last year. If you ain't picking the master - good luck to ya.

There's a lot of value in the mids this year, namely Beams, Murphy, and Daisy. Then (in my opinion) there are underpriced players such as Rockliff and Watson. These types of players could take at least 3 spots in your midfield as you won't be getting them any cheaper during the year. There is also debate over who will go number 1 in SC this year, Ablett, Jelwood, or Pendles? Personally I think Pendles, so that's another spot in the midfield gone. Finally, I personally like having a POD each year, which takes up that 5th spot in my midfield.

While I am sure he will go top 2 this year, I really struggle to get him into my side to start the season.

I would argue that GAJ is also underpriced GL ;) Was averaging 136 all year until the final rounds where he was hindered by injury.

The big question I have for those not starting him, is at what point to you expect to bring him in?

[GoLions]

How could you not start with GAJ? What's changed? He ain't gonna spend THAT much time forward. No more than he did last year. If you ain't picking the master - good luck to ya.

There's a lot of value in the mids this year, namely Beams, Murphy, and Daisy. Then (in my opinion) there are underpriced players such as Rockliff and Watson. These types of players could take at least 3 spots in your midfield as you won't be getting them any cheaper during the year. There is also debate over who will go number 1 in SC this year, Ablett, Jelwood, or Pendles? Personally I think Pendles, so that's another spot in the midfield gone. Finally, I personally like having a POD each year, which takes up that 5th spot in my midfield.

While I am sure he will go top 2 this year, I really struggle to get him into my side to start the season.

I would argue that GAJ is also underpriced GL ;) Was averaging 136 all year until the final rounds where he was hindered by injury.

The big question I have for those not starting him, is at what point to you expect to bring him in?

That depends. Ablett and Selwood will be the 2 main guys I will want to bring into my midfield. So if Selwood has a bad game early, I'll look to bring him in before Ablett, but if he starts well I'll likely aim to bring Ablett in around the byes.

[_wato]

GL, I think if you and many others went like that you're gonna be missing out on a truckload of points. If Selwood does smash it from Round 1 he's your first priority and by the time you find cash for Ablett 2/3's of the season will be over (ask nearly everyone who didn't start with Ablett in the past few years). Everyone says they'll pick him up by the byes because he should fall in price, but as Rico said he is underpriced and he has a fairly handy draw before the byes where I can see him averaging 135 and hovering around $700k which by all means is too expensive and you'll waste so many trades trying to get him in. It's the classic case of Jack Martin too - Most expensive rookie but most probably will average the most out of all the rookies so you have to spend more cash to get him in instead of trying to find $100k if he guns it to start the season. If he flops you have $100k to use elsewhere after you trade him out.

Leave Ablett out at your peril as I think, he is a must have. Pendlebury will start the season ordinary with his draw and opposition but watch for him after the byes, which is where I'll be targeting him after a price fall.

[GoLions]

The thing is though, I think Pendlebury will be the number 1 player in SC this year, and that would mean he would be more expensive than Ablett and therefore even harder to bring in. You think that he will start ordinary, I do not. That's essentially why I'm starting Pendles and not Ablett. If I thought Ablett would start better than I would pick Ablett.

[Dayze]

It's really a flip of a coin. More than likely they will both start well.
More than likely they will both average 130.
Pendlebury has a very impressive record against the harder teams.
He seems to play better against the better teams and coast a little against the cellar dwellers so I don't think his start to the year cant even b taken into account.
I think we all know the right thing to do is start both we all just want to find room for our uniques...
Seeing that beams is pretty much a lock there isn't much room left for other midfielders.

[WizzFizz]

ill just be taking both with murph and beams

my mids will look like this:

Gaz, Pendles, Cotch/Rocky/JPK/Watson, Murphy, Beams, Thomas, Martin, Mitchie (Dunstan,Morabito)

Dont think Sellwood would be right for round 1. Even if he is he jut might get a long rest or might even be subbed off late 3rd/early 4th.

But will joel recovers well ill think about him instead of ablett and i could upgrade murphy to a Cotch/Rocky/JPK/Watson.

we'll just have to wait and se how he recovers.

[_wato]

Alright then.
Pendlebury Round 1 has Crowley, Fyfe, Mundy, Barlow etc, Round 2 has JPK, Jack, Mcveigh, Hanners etc to contend with, Round 3 has Geelong so Hunt, Selwood, SJ, Bartel etc, Round 4 has Richmond so Jackson, Cotchin, Deledio, Martin, Round 5 has North who he usually does well on so I'll give you that, but he may cop more attention because of this, Round 6 has the Bombers where he might get a Hocking tag plus Watson, Goddard, Heppell, Zaha and then Round 7 has Carlton who have Curnow, Carrazzo, Murphy, Judd etc. In each game these players will steal a lot of points. Mind you there are more than these guns named and he also has his teammates to contend with.

I think he may only average 120 upto the byes whereas Ablett I have averaging 130+. Also In bold are the supposed opposition taggers. Pendlebury is my favourite player lads so it's hard for me not to start him and say this about him.

I'm curious as to what you think he will  average? I have him around the 118-123 mark.

[WizzFizz]

Alright then.
Pendlebury Round 1 has Crowley, Fyfe, Mundy, Barlow etc, Round 2 has JPK, Jack, Mcveigh, Hanners etc to contend with, Round 3 has Geelong so Hunt, Selwood, SJ, Bartel etc, Round 4 has Richmond so Jackson, Cotchin, Deledio, Martin, Round 5 has North who he usually does well on so I'll give you that, but he may cop more attention because of this, Round 6 has the Bombers where he might get a Hocking tag plus Watson, Goddard, Heppell, Zaha and then Round 7 has Carlton who have Curnow, Carrazzo, Murphy, Judd etc. In each game these players will steal a lot of points. Mind you there are more than these guns named and he also has his teammates to contend with.

I think he may only average 120 upto the byes whereas Ablett I have averaging 130+. Also In bold are the supposed opposition taggers. Pendlebury is my favourite player lads so it's hard for me not to start him and say this about him.

I'm curious as to what you think he will  average? I have him around the 118-123 mark.

you can just highlight the good players pendlebury contends with. Every player will always have to contend with great players so how is pendle bury different from gaz, sellwood etc

Their draws are very similar, yes ablett has an easier run but the main taggers will follow him as he is one of few beasts at gold coast. Richmond freo brisbane and hawthorn in the first 4. They are just a little bit weaker than pendles' first 4 but as I said Ablett will be getting most if the tagging attention. The taggers will shift between pendles swan beams sidey etc but the taggers will stay on ablett.

Having said that i dont care as I will be getting both.  :)

I think Ablett and pendles will both avg 125-135

[Grazz]

Are the Kennedys Gun shy. :P

[Dayze]

I agree with a lot of things u say Wato. The pies definedly have a tough start to the year.
I also see ur dilemma, so much value u in the mids that someones got to miss out.

But to drop pendles from ur starting line up becoz of a tough start doesn't work IMO with him. He is different.
against his first 7 opponents he averaged over 129. Above his yearly average.
His lowest score of the season last year was against GWS.
I would b less likely to leave out pendles if he started the year against Melbourne GWS and the Saints.

[_wato]

you can just highlight the good players pendlebury contends with. Every player will always have to contend with great players so how is pendle bury different from gaz, sellwood etc

Their draws are very similar, yes ablett has an easier run but the main taggers will follow him as he is one of few beasts at gold coast. Richmond freo brisbane and hawthorn in the first 4. They are just a little bit weaker than pendles' first 4 but as I said Ablett will be getting most if the tagging attention. The taggers will shift between pendles swan beams sidey etc but the taggers will stay on ablett.

Having said that i dont care as I will be getting both.  :)

I think Ablett and pendles will both avg 125-135

You're very right in some aspects mate, hahaha. I just did a quick research and had a look at each of their 7 games before the byes and did a 3 game average of their last 3 games just to get a little more insight into the averages instead of taking it on one game.

Pendlebury averaged 124.35 in 21 games against his opposition in the first seven games. 3 below 100, 12 above 120, top score of 160
Ablett averaged 146.25 in his 21 games against his position in the first seven games. 1 below 100, 19 above 120, top score of 189.
That's alarming to me.. A 20 point difference between the two. Even if Ablett's output goes down 5 points per game he's averaging 140 and even if Pendlebury improves he's still averaging 130 which is well below Ablett.

I've just reconfirmed my choice of Gary Ablett. Good luck!

[Grazz]

you can just highlight the good players pendlebury contends with. Every player will always have to contend with great players so how is pendle bury different from gaz, sellwood etc

Their draws are very similar, yes ablett has an easier run but the main taggers will follow him as he is one of few beasts at gold coast. Richmond freo brisbane and hawthorn in the first 4. They are just a little bit weaker than pendles' first 4 but as I said Ablett will be getting most if the tagging attention. The taggers will shift between pendles swan beams sidey etc but the taggers will stay on ablett.

Having said that i dont care as I will be getting both.  :)

I think Ablett and pendles will both avg 125-135

You're very right in some aspects mate, hahaha. I just did a quick research and had a look at each of their 7 games before the byes and did a 3 game average of their last 3 games just to get a little more insight into the averages instead of taking it on one game.

Pendlebury averaged 124.35 in 21 games against his opposition in the first seven games. 3 below 100, 12 above 120, top score of 160
Ablett averaged 146.25 in his 21 games against his position in the first seven games. 1 below 100, 19 above hundred, top score of 189.
That's alarming to me.. A 20 point difference between the two. Even if Ablett's output goes down 5 points per game he's averaging 140 and even if Pendlebury improves he's still averaging 130 which is well below Ablett.

I've just reconfirmed my choice of Gary Ablett. Good luck!

Nice work mate well done. ;)

[WizzFizz]

you can just highlight the good players pendlebury contends with. Every player will always have to contend with great players so how is pendle bury different from gaz, sellwood etc

Their draws are very similar, yes ablett has an easier run but the main taggers will follow him as he is one of few beasts at gold coast. Richmond freo brisbane and hawthorn in the first 4. They are just a little bit weaker than pendles' first 4 but as I said Ablett will be getting most if the tagging attention. The taggers will shift between pendles swan beams sidey etc but the taggers will stay on ablett.

Having said that i dont care as I will be getting both.  :)

I think Ablett and pendles will both avg 125-135

You're very right in some aspects mate, hahaha. I just did a quick research and had a look at each of their 7 games before the byes and did a 3 game average of their last 3 games just to get a little more insight into the averages instead of taking it on one game.

Pendlebury averaged 124.35 in 21 games against his opposition in the first seven games. 3 below 100, 12 above 120, top score of 160
Ablett averaged 146.25 in his 21 games against his position in the first seven games. 1 below 100, 19 above hundred, top score of 189.
That's alarming to me.. A 20 point difference between the two. Even if Ablett's output goes down 5 points per game he's averaging 140 and even if Pendlebury improves he's still averaging 130 which is well below Ablett.

I've just reconfirmed my choice of Gary Ablett. Good luck!

Nice work mate well done. ;)

Yea i just checked too.

Here are his last 3 scores for the teams he vs before the bye.

Richmond 120,133,127 AVG: 126.7
Freo 137,185,157 AVG: 159.6
Brisbane 112,127,150 AVG: 129.7
Hawthorn 149, 189,170 AVG: 166.3
Melbourne 67,152,165 AVG: 128
GWS 160,164,126 AVG: 150
North 153, 188, 139 AVG: 160

Last 3 avg to teams before byes: 146.1

Those scores are absolutely amazing. He'll be a Captain lock every round. Also Crowley and Raines couldn't stop him with avgs against Freo and Brissy 159.7 and 129.7 respectively. The only person to stop him was Jordy Mckenzie in which he scored only 67, his only score under 110 against the teams he vs before the byes. To sum it up, anyone who doesnt have him will suffer badly and will have a massive point of difference, a very terrible one in fact: failing to pick the little magician.

[_wato]

Yea i just checked too.

Here are his last 3 scores for the teams he vs before the bye.

Richmond 120,133,127 AVG: 126.7
Freo 137,185,157 AVG: 159.6
Brisbane 112,127,150 AVG: 129.7
Hawthorn 149, 189,170 AVG: 166.3
Melbourne 67,152,165 AVG: 128
GWS 160,164,126 AVG: 150
North 153, 188, 139 AVG: 160

Last 3 avg to teams before byes: 146.1

Those scores are absolutely amazing. He'll be a Captain lock every round. Also Crowley and Raines couldn't stop him with avgs against Freo and Brissy 159.7 and 129.7 respectively. The only person to stop him was Jordy Mckenzie in which he scored only 67, his only score under 110 against the teams he vs before the byes. To sum it up, anyone who doesnt have him will suffer badly and will have a massive point of difference, a very terrible one in fact: failing to pick the little magician.

My point exactly. Don't start him at your peril. By all means Pendlebury is a good and safe bet but just not upto the standard of Ablett YET. His time will come. Look for him after the byes in my opinion.