Jobe Watson - Deck of Dream Team

[Ricochet]

http://dreamteamtalk.com/2013/12/10/jobe-watson-deck-of-dream-team-2014/

Club: Essendon
Position: Midfielder
AFL Fantasy Price: Approx. $530K
Bye Round: 10
2013 Average: 98.5
2013 Games Played: 19
Predicted Average: 108

Why should I pick him?

Ive started with the captain of the club I support because he is close to being the first picked for me. In 2012 Jobe Watson had his fantasy breakout season averaging over 100 for his first time with 112.4 AFL Fantasy points whilst playing every game. 17 of his scores were over 100 including 9 of them 120+.

Oh yeah. he also won the Brownlow Medal!

This year Watson comes in under-priced after a few down games to go with a red-vest when he broke is collarbone during the first quarter in Round 15 for only 16 points. He missed three games before coming back for 113, 120, 121, 104 and 73 to finish the season.

Apart from his injury affected game, Watson didnt finish with under 20 disposals throughout this season or the last. He is certainly an accumulator of the ball! For fantasy, I worry about Jobes handball happy game. This has improved over the last three seasons as back in 2010 he had a 1:1.7 kick to handball ratio. Over the last three years its been in the positives with more kicks than handballs. Hopefully this can continue in 2014.

Another factor in his average drop in 2013 was the tough year he had off the field. The Bombers drug scandal cant have been good for the captain of the club but his numbers were still as high as ever. Even after that night when he admitted to being injected with AOD-9604 on 'On The Couch', the following game against West Coast he had 122 fantasy points. My point being here is that it should be a much more positive season for the captain off the field which should translate to better on field performances.

Why shouldnt I pick him?

Looking back over his AFL Fantasy career, Jobe Watson hasnt really proven himself to be a premium midfielder. I was surprised that he hadnt averaged over 100 points before 2012 but in the three years leading into that he averaged 91, 94.9 and 99.5 to be a fair consistent, and gradually improving, fantasy player. The question still remains in my head about whether he actually is a 110+ type player.

One of the main reasons was the aforementioned kick to handball ratio. I did say he has improved but it is only slightly over 1:1 in favour of kicks. Nothing like our favourite fantasy pig in Swanny at over 1.5:1. Some examples of poor kick to handball this year was in his last game against Richmond with 8:17 (74 points going head to head with Cotchin), against GWS with 7:14 (54 points being tagged by Townsend) and 6:14 against Fremantle (65 points while being tagged by de Boer).

This bring up the next point, Watson can be tagged and kept to low scores. He more often than not breaks the tags but for consistency sake, its not a great thing to cop a sub-80 type score from a guy who you have in your side to be averaging 105+.


Deck of DT Rating:

ACE I think with the Bombers drug scandal dying down (well, I hope so anyway), Jobe Watson can get back to his best without that other rubbish in the background. I did think he was going to be my first picked but I am second guessing myself due to only one year averaging over 100 and the whole kick to handball/tag stuff. I still think he will improve and as I have predicted him to average 108, he is currently in my starting squad, but it is only December 10!

[Ricochet]

Bloody copy and paste issue. Finally got there

[henry]

Well done ric lol, top effort.

Watson is definitely under consideration for me, as he is underpriced. I see him similar to Murphy, who is even cheaper but has averaged 110 in the past. I don't think you can have both of them in your team, as for me they're only m4-5 quality and you don't really want them in your top 3 mids to start the season. I will certainly have one of them in my starting team, maybe the bye week and starting fixture will help me decide (haven't looked at either yet).