The Big Buddy Move

[Jroo]

During the 2013 AFL Free Agency Period, Sydney pulled off one of the biggest moves in AFL history, landing Hawks' star forward Lance 'Buddy' Franklin, paying him a controversial $10 million over nine years. This move will affect not only Buddy, but new and old teammates. I'll go through the effects of the move and what it likely to happen next year in SuperCoach as a result.

Lance 'Buddy' Franklin
Obviously the move will affect Franklin himself. He's been paid a lot of money and has had lots of public scrutiny, so how will the move affect him? We all know Franklin is a champion and arguably in the top three players in the AFL based on talent. For a superstar like Franklin, the change shouldn't affect him too much and after a few slightly disappointing years, I think the fresh start up in Sydney will actually help him. Franklin is a proven star and has been a premium forward for the last seven years, so there's no reason to suggest that he can't get back to his brilliant best.

Franklin's SuperCoach average since 2007, pretty impressive for a forward.

Yes, he won't have Roughead  to help him anymore, but Tippett isn't too far behind and the Swans' midfield is close to the best in the competition so he'll have the ball delivered to him on a silver platter, which could see Franklin produce some big scores again. He's not too expensive as he should be priced around $480k, as a result of disappointing 2013. If you think he can work together with his Sydney forward counterpart, Kurt Tippett, then he is well worth the risk at that price.

Kurt Tippett
Tippett is another key forward who's recently made the switch over to Sydney. Like Franklin, he too is being paid big bucks and the Swans will hope he can deliver. He was good last year after coming back from his suspension in round 13 and he'll only get better again next year, especially with the inclusion of Franklin. Tippett knows how to kicks goals, he takes marks and he will have to ruck a bit more in 2014 with Mumford leaving, which should help boost his SuperCoach scores.

With Franklin now up forward, it will mean Tippett will get the oppositions' second best defender, which should also benefit his SuperCoach scores and I expect his scores to improve even more next year. Some say there's not enough room in the Swans' forward line for both Tippett and Franklin, but Tippett may be used as a ruckman at times and either of them could push up the ground, so I wouldn't be too worried. If you don't want to start Franklin in your side, then Tippett is a good alternative, as they should be priced similarly.

Jarryd Roughead
The Coleman medallist was brilliant in 2013 and so were his SuperCoach scores. But how will the departure of Franklin affect him? I think it may affect him negatively. Roughead enjoyed playing second fiddle to Franklin, but he is now clearly their number one forward, so he will get the best defender and teams will focus more on shutting him down. Roughead was used in the ruck and midfield in short stints in 2013, but next year he'll be stuck up forward as they don't have that luxury anymore with Franklin leaving and I think we'll see a slight drop off in Roughead's SuperCoach scores. We've seen in the past that Roughead generally scores okay when Franklin isn't playing, but this has only happened nine times in the past three years and playing full-time without Franklin will surely hurt Roughead's scores.

Roughead has scored better without Franklin in the past, but I think this may change.

There's no doubt Roughead is a gun, but I think the departure of Franklin will affect his scores. He won't come cheaply, as he was one of the top scoring SuperCoach forwards in 2013. If you're looking for value, then I think there are better options out there such as his ex-teammate in Franklin or even Tippett.

Jack Gunston
What a season Gunston had, stepping up when it mattered for the Hawks. 'Mr.September' was vital in the Hawks' Premiership tilt, averaging 123 SuperCoach points during the finals series. Gunston was good throughout 2013 too, but with Franklin leaving I think it will hurt Gunston's scores. Playing in a forward line of Franklin and Roughead, Gunston was always going to fly under the radar, but in 2014 he'll be expected to play a much bigger role and I'm not sure how he'll cope with this added pressure. Gunston is still young and like Roughead, teams will work out how to stop Gunston, which can only be bad for his SuperCoach scores.

I think the added expectations will affect Gunston negatively as he's only young and as a key forward, he's always prone to putting in a stinker. I think there are better options out there, even though he is cheaper than the other three, you're better off paying the extra cash to get a more proven forward in, who should score more consistently.

The Verdict
Key forwards are usually inconsistent and aren't the best scorers in fantasy land, so I wouldn't pick more than two of these guys. If I had to rank them in order of who I think are the best options to pick in your SuperCoach side best next season, I'll go with:

1. Lance 'Buddy' Franklin
2. Kurt Tippett
3. Jarryd Roughead
4. Jack Gunston

Franklin is the best choice and he is pretty cheap for what he can produce. This year he was priced at nearly $620k, but next year he will be priced at the $480k region. It was hard to separate Tippett and Roughead and I don't think there will be much difference in their scores, but seeing as Tippett will be quite a bit cheaper and also the fact that his scores will improve, he just gets the nod ahead of Roughead. Gunston is risky as he's still young and I think it will take him another year perform he becomes a consistent premium SuperCoach forward. Nonetheless, Franklin, Tippett, Roughead and even Gunston should perform well in 2014, but Franklin is my pick to be the leader of that lot.

http://www.supercoachhq.com/16/post/2013/12/the-big-buddy-move.html

[_wato]

Phew, what a write up. That was brilliant mate, well done.

Buddy should be in everyone's teams to be perfectly honest, he is a gun. Nothing should change.

[Jroo]

Phew, what a write up. That was brilliant mate, well done.

Buddy should be in everyone's teams to be perfectly honest, he is a gun. Nothing should change.

Thanks mate, before I wrote this I didn't think I'd select Buddy but I may have changed my mind  8)

[stew42]

Good write up, but I'd add Sam Reid in there too. He'll get the third best defender. Adam Goodes couldn't hurt either haha ;)

That said, Buddy will be in my team. I rate Sydney's midfield higher than Hawthorn's (well, just), should get good delivery :)

[Jroo]

Good write up, but I'd add Sam Reid in there too. He'll get the third best defender. Adam Goodes couldn't hurt either haha ;)

That said, Buddy will be in my team. I rate Sydney's midfield higher than Hawthorn's (well, just), should get good delivery :)

Thanks Stew  8)
Do you reckon Reid, Goodes, Buddy and Tippett can fit in the same side? Or will Reid have to go down back?
I agree, I think Sydney's midfield is better than the Hawks.

[stew42]

I reckon Buddy and Goodes can rotate mid/fwd, so Reid should stay fwd. But I'm not Horse Longmire :P

[GoLions]

Hawks use the ball better than Sydney IMO, so I don't think he'll be getting better delivery from the Swans mids if that's what you were saying.

Buddy is very talented, but I don't see him averaging as high as people expect due to Sydney having so many other players who can score very well week in week out.

I don't think Roughy will drop that much overall. Think he'll struggle early on, and then soon enough will adapt and produce scores around the 100 mark for at least the 2nd half of the year.

If anything I'd say Gunston could get better (in comparison to H&A season, not finals), as with Buddy gone, the ball will be kicked to him a lot more than it used to. Yes he will have a better defender on him, but if he marks the ball, it's basically a goal as he never misses.

I think Tippett will be the worst out of these 4. Would rank them like this:
1 - Roughead
2 - Buddy
3 - Gunston
4 - Tippett


At this point I'm not starting any of these guys, but have been considering Gunston. Will depend on prices.

[Jroo]

Hawks use the ball better than Sydney IMO, so I don't think he'll be getting better delivery from the Swans mids if that's what you were saying.

Buddy is very talented, but I don't see him averaging as high as people expect due to Sydney having so many other players who can score very well week in week out.

I don't think Roughy will drop that much overall. Think he'll struggle early on, and then soon enough will adapt and produce scores around the 100 mark for at least the 2nd half of the year.

If anything I'd say Gunston could get better (in comparison to H&A season, not finals), as with Buddy gone, the ball will be kicked to him a lot more than it used to. Yes he will have a better defender on him, but if he marks the ball, it's basically a goal as he never misses.

I think Tippett will be the worst out of these 4. Would rank them like this:
1 - Roughead
2 - Buddy
3 - Gunston
4 - Tippett

Fair enough GL, that sounds reasonable, but I don't see Roughy improving from 2013, while I think both Tippett and Buddy can improve. Gunston is a difficult one to read, I like him but as I said I think teams will actually try to shut him down as with Buddy and Roughy he could kick a few goals but with Buddy gone teams will try to shut him down. Interesting to see how this situation plays out and I wouldn't be surprised to see Gunston have a big year.

[Sabretooth Tigers]

 :)
What a magnificent piece of writing, could only come from a Tiger supporter. Will start Buddy, he's priced according to his poor last season. Couldn't score as badly now that all the contract bullshower is over and would seem a win/win investment. Apart from the EM which at the moment are Michie and Hogan all my other forwards are FOR/MIDS, and even though it's early days and we don't have official prices yet, that's not likely to change. Cheers for the write-up, thanks for the info and all the best of luck. " Go Tiges !"

[Jroo]

:)
What a magnificent piece of writing, could only come from a Tiger supporter. Will start Buddy, he's priced according to his poor last season. Couldn't score as badly now that all the contract bullshower is over and would seem a win/win investment. Apart from the EM which at the moment are Michie and Hogan all my other forwards are FOR/MIDS, and even though it's early days and we don't have official prices yet, that's not likely to change. Cheers for the write-up, thanks for the info and all the best of luck. " Go Tiges !"

Cheers ST, you're a legend (well of course you are, you're a Tiger supporter)  8)
I have Buddy in my side atm and I'm hoping for a big 2014 from him.

[Vinny]

No Buddy for me this season, until he proves himself.

To be honest, he is great but very overrated.

[JBs-Hawks]

No Buddy for me this season, until he proves himself.

To be honest, he is great but very overrated.

Overrated maybe, but he scores well!

[_wato]

115, 110, 107 ppg before this year Vin. He may be overrated on the field but is a proven scorer when it comes to fantasy scoring.

[Vinny]

Yeah I know I am not doubting that, just sayin as a AFL player. He is extremely overrated but I know he is a gun.

[Sabretooth Tigers]

 ???
Who would you take in place of him at his price Vinney  ?   If you can come up with one better I'll jump aboard,  can you ??
;)