Negative talk on Murphy...?

Vinny · November 24, 2013, 01:43:13 PM

That's the problem though, it costs an extra trade and will cost you early point if you are going for overall. Probably safer to grab him after the byes if he is killing it.

Or something different, grab him before the price rises if he proves he can handle taggers for those few games probably Conca, Cassisi & Hocking. Haha probably not worth it but yeah :P

shaker · November 24, 2013, 01:53:57 PM

Have complete confidence that Murphy can and will perform from the start no trades wasted unless he gets injured only some cash to be made and good scores win win ;)

TeeJay · November 24, 2013, 07:22:02 PM

Quote from: vinny on November 24, 2013, 01:23:48 PM
Yeah most of those guys will probably score more but if Murphy breaks the tag, he can be a top 4 in the comp. He is in the exact same situation as Cotchin, Cotch does just as bad with a tag. But he kills it when Lids gets it. They are in the same boat I think.

Libba & Steven will struggle Intially when they cop the tag soon too.

Top 10 yes not capable of top 4 though IMO. And Cotchin handles the tag a little better, he was dominating before he hurt his knee. Both in similarity situations though

Vinny · November 24, 2013, 07:27:21 PM

Wow, haha didnt actually realise I said Top 4, but yeah Top 10 sounds reasonable. Yeah but Murphy took had his injury problems throughout the year.

Southstorm · November 24, 2013, 08:09:33 PM

I'm backing him to at least average 110 and I'm seriously considering starting him as a keeper. That $100k might come in handy across the lines to get the right rookies.

Mat0369 · November 24, 2013, 11:39:27 PM

I posted this early in the year and I will post it again now with the updated stats since the season just finished.

Murphy lead Carlton in overall contested possessions last season (2012) after missing a chunk of games and was ranked 11th in the AFL for contested possessions per game in 2012 (12.8 per game) and 2011 (12.8 per game again), was 12th in 2010 (9.8 per game and Judd lead the league in CP's per game) and finished 41st for this season (9.9 per game). Since 2010 his contested numbers have improved dramatically and he has become both a player that can win it inside and out.

In the past three seasons his disposal per number rank

2010: 25.4 which was 24th in the league (111.7 SC ppg which was good enough for 11th in the league), his % contested is 38.6%
2011: 29.1 which was 7th in the league for disposals per game (119.6 including finals for the 4th best average in the league), his % contested 44%
2012: 26.2 which was 17th in the league (112.7 average which is 17th in the league), his % contested 48.9%

This year he is averaging 22.3 touches per game, his lowest in the last 3 years, to rank 66th in the league, to average 93.1 if you include finals (with a few injury effected games in there) which ranks him 80th. His % of CP this season is 44.5%.

The reason Murph scored so well in 2010 and 2011 is because he used the ball so well, last season when he came back from his injury he was very rusty using the ball in games and his DE was down. This year what hurt him is that he is not getting enough of the ball and that is due to him being rested up forward for extended periods of time. He is not around the pill enough, so he can't get his hands on it and when he goes into the middle he wins some hard contested clearances and is dragged straight away and thrown deep forward. He was effectively being Rockliffed, how much of that had to do with his injury I am unsure, but it has nothing to do with receiving a tag and more to do with where he is being asked to play.

I have broken down his points per possession so you can see how he has progressed

2010: 4.398
2011: 4.110
2012: 4.302
2013: 4.182

His DE% over the last few seasons

2010: 74.6%
2011: 73.5%
2012: 70%
2013: 70.5%

His goal numbers have also drastically dropped since his best season kicking at goal. This year he kicked 18.7 compared to his best season in 2009 where he kicked 31.17. Murphy gets most of his goals running in towards them from the midfield or a stoppage as opposed to leading up as a forward option (which he was forced to do this year). His output in terms of kicking goals is greater when he spends extended periods in the guts.

His ppp has dropped since last season but increased since his best fantasy wise. He is able to win the contested ball, spread and then hit up a target which has made him such a dangerous SC scorer in the past. If he starts getting his 26 touches a game again he will get back to that 110+ a game range. However I think it will all depend on where he plays the majority of his football. If Malthouse continues to play him deep forward then his scores will continue to suffer.

specky92 · November 24, 2013, 11:51:23 PM

Is it possible he's going forward to try and break the tag (A mick theory) I want to lock him in so bad as then my byes would be looking healthy

Mat0369 · November 25, 2013, 12:17:22 AM

Quote from: specky92 on November 24, 2013, 11:51:23 PM
Is it possible he's going forward to try and break the tag (A mick theory) I want to lock him in so bad as then my byes would be looking healthy

You could say that but this was the case even when he wasn't receiving attention or he was destroying his opponents. The Bombers game this year he had 12 touches in the first and was a clear best on until that point. He then spent the majority of the 2nd quarter in the forward line. It might have been him having issues with his body and not being able to run out a full game, that's the only thing i can put it down too, otherwise he was Rockliffed. It is the only other way I can put it.

kilbluff1985 · November 25, 2013, 12:23:00 AM

i think a lot of this year can be explained by not being 100% and an interrupted preseason

Matt has he started preseason with the rest of the group if you know?

Mat0369 · November 25, 2013, 12:32:24 AM

Quote from: kilbluff1985 on November 25, 2013, 12:23:00 AM
i think a lot of this year can be explained by not being 100% and an interrupted preseason

Matt has he started preseason with the rest of the group if you know?

I haven't heard or read anything so far.

The only season in recent times he has pretty much had a decent run at the preseason was 2011 which also happened to be his best year. 2010 he missed a chunk of time, 2012 he had a couple of surgeries, same thing heading into this year. As long as he isn't a super late starter and the knee is not nagging him, that should be a good sign in terms of what he has been able to do with limited preseasons in the past