2014 Predictions

[Ziplock]

why'd riley miss so much of the season then?

It was Aidan Riley who broke his leg for the Crows, not Brent Reilly ;)

that must have been what I was thinking of.

why'd riley miss so much of the season then?

Shoulder injury, he's completed pre-season in full and is a lock best 22 Crows player.

I'm not a richmond supporter, but I wouldn't call knights best 22. Rohan/ Jenkins are both 60 players... they'd be ok for like F7+ 8 or even F6+7, but you really want a 70-80 forward for F5 in best 22... which knights doesn't fulfill.

I know a lot of Richmond supporters that would defintely disagree with you. Aaaand uninjured Knights went 87 soooo I'd say he's a very handy F5 ;)

Jenkins went 67 last season while copping the best defender. Definitely set to build on that. Jpod (who you're completely ignoring) to Adelaide will help both JJ and Jpod's scoring. We got Rohan basically for free sooo... :P

As a Richmond supporter, a fit Chris Knights is best 22.

+1 and BOOM.

As a Carlton supporter, Richmond suck. :P

Hahaha 8)

As a non victorian based AFL supporter, all Victorian clubs suck :P

+1 :P

yeah, knights went ok in 2007, 2008 and 2009.

last 4 seasons though he's played 5, 16, 5 and 5 games, so the uninjured point is probably moot anyway :P

[elephants]

You asked for a 70-80 fwd as our F5 who is in a teams best 22... We gave you Knights who, even with his injury games, still averaged 75 :P

[Ziplock]

You asked for a 70-80 fwd as our F5 who is in a teams best 22... We gave you Knights who, even with his injury games, still averaged 75 :P

fair enough, honestly I didn't see knights in the 22.

so, enjoy the average of like 8 games he plays a year :P

[elephants]

You asked for a 70-80 fwd as our F5 who is in a teams best 22... We gave you Knights who, even with his injury games, still averaged 75 :P

fair enough, honestly I didn't see knights in the 22.

so, enjoy the average of like 8 games he plays a year :P

Oh we will, he'll be our F7 behind the lethal Adelaide combo of JJ and Jpod ;)

[Justin Bieber]

Brent Reilly broke his collarbone or something like that

[Nige]

Brent Reilly broke his collarbone or something like that

Yeah, shoulder injury ended his season.

[CrowsFan]

Looking forward to the judgement you give of the Bison :)

Understandable you haven't done any the last few days though.

[Ziplock]

Looking forward to the judgement you give of the Bison :)

Understandable you haven't done any the last few days though.

yeah, I've been all over the place in the last couple of days.

Big blow to the bashers losing seedsman, that backline depth will be tested for the early season.

I'm trying to spread them out, so I'll probably be doing a middle ranked team next :P

[Ziplock]

Norwegian Trolls- Adamant
Predicted ranking: 9th (1408)

Team:

Backs: Waters (85), Pearce (90), Hurn (70), Roberton (70)
 L. Spurr, S. Gilbert, S. Wright, W. Schofield, S. Shaw, B. Martin, J. Ashby

Mids: Cornes (C, 210), Fyfe (100), Sloane (95), Hartlett (95)
M. Wallis, J. MacMillan, B. Sheppard, D. Kent, A. Moore, T. Sheridan, M. Arnot, N. Joyce, Je. Stringer

Ruck: Mcevoy (95)
Grimley, Jamar

Fwd: Pavlich (90), Rioli (90), Waite (80), Clark (80)
L. Thomas, D. Merrett, D. Addison, A. McGrath, J. Green, D. Pfeiffer, J. Kennedy-Harris 

Util: Sewell (88), Edwards (70)

Analysis: I've got this team jumping a monstrous 6 positions this year under the new coach and pushing for the 8... unfortunately, largely dependent on the fitness of their players.

Backs: A slightly average line, Waters is obviously out for a while, and that's about 15ppg lost having to field Spurr. There's several 70+ players who could take D3/4, and the depth JS wise is alright... albeit, there's no real notable talent in the mix developing on the bench. Taking waters into consideration, the trolls can probably take 1 more injury in the backline before they'll be forced to play a very average player.

Mids: Cornes is a champion as we all know, and it was great to see him bounce back to his best last year. I don't see him improving on his average, so pegging him for 105 is a pretty close to best case scenario. Fyfe, Sloane and Hartlett are all beasts/ will be fantasy beasts, albeit with Hartlett's injury concerns, while Sewell is a pretty dependable scorer. Personally, I'd have Wallis as the second utility as I rate him around 80, but each to their own. After that though there's no really good cover- several young players who are developing, but even in a best case scenario only a couple of them are probably going to become viable DTers, and it's unlikely to happen this year.

Rucks: Mcevoy's a beast, and I think will be really well serviced by the higher possession game of the hawks. Grimley is a bit of an insurance for Mcevoy... that being said, he'd be relatively lucky to get a game even if Mcevoy got injured, it'd surely be more likely to ruck hale full time, unless it was an LTI. I think if Jamar can stay fit and get back to his best, he'd scrape an 80 average, but he's under a fair amount of pressure this season. It's an OK line- the one star in Mcevoy, a backup ruck from his team and then Jamar.

Forwards: Probably the most injury prone forward line in the comp. Rioli, Waite, Clark and after Pavlich last year... I think in 2013 they averaged less than 10 games amongst them. The trolls have some depth JS wise to deal with them, albeit, most of it is aging/ average, but there is a non-insignificant probability that there could be multiple weeks in which none of the trolls top 4 forwards are available to take the field, which would really stretch this team.

Overall: Fully fit, I'd rate this team fighting for the 8... but it has the potential to be ridiculously injury ravaged, and honestly that's what I'm expecting. Most of it's young developing bench players are still not quite up to AFL DT standards yet, and won't be for several years at the best. It's going to sound harsh, but despite the huge immediate improvement adamant's made to the trolls, I'm struggling to see the current team list ever being a serious contender for the premiership. In this position I'd cross my fingers on Waite/ Pavlich this year and hope they pull out 90 averages, then next year try to trade them both out for high draft picks/ recent high draft picks/ developing players or underpriced players, and try to build the team around them... atm, the trolls just have a couple too many holes with a serious lack of depth in the mids as well as their injury problems in the forwards and a lack of scoring power in the backs.

[CrowsFan]

Looking forward to the judgement you give of the Bison :)

Understandable you haven't done any the last few days though.

yeah, I've been all over the place in the last couple of days.

Big blow to the bashers losing seedsman, that backline depth will be tested for the early season.

I'm trying to spread them out, so I'll probably be doing a middle ranked team next :P

Should just do them alphabetically ;)

[Adamant]

Thanks for the write up Zip. Very fair call on the ladder prediction, I see us around that 7th-9th mark but depth is a major concern obviously.

Could have potentially turned it into a top 4 contending team if I went old and got rid of Cotch/Sloane for Ablett/ROK, but with our lack of developing talent in the midfield I didn't want to completely burn out in a couple of years. :P

[Ziplock]

Thanks for the write up Zip. Very fair call on the ladder prediction, I see us around that 7th-9th mark but depth is a major concern obviously.

Could have potentially turned it into a top 4 contending team if I went old and got rid of Cotch/Sloane for Ablett/ROK, but with our lack of developing talent in the midfield I didn't want to completely burn out in a couple of years. :P

haha, fair enough.

[elephants]

Looking forward to the judgement you give of the Bison :)

Understandable you haven't done any the last few days though.

yeah, I've been all over the place in the last couple of days.

Big blow to the bashers losing seedsman, that backline depth will be tested for the early season.

I'm trying to spread them out, so I'll probably be doing a middle ranked team next :P

Rubbish! He's out for 6 weeks = 42 days. It's 45 days until round 1. He'll be A-OK! But thanks for asking ;)

#thereisonlyonePaulSeedsman

[Ziplock]

Looking forward to the judgement you give of the Bison :)

Understandable you haven't done any the last few days though.

yeah, I've been all over the place in the last couple of days.

Big blow to the bashers losing seedsman, that backline depth will be tested for the early season.

I'm trying to spread them out, so I'll probably be doing a middle ranked team next :P

Rubbish! He's out for 6 weeks = 42 days. It's 45 days until round 1. He'll be A-OK! But thanks for asking ;)

#thereisonlyonePaulSeedsman

6 weeks until he can resume training, get match fitness, then probably come back through the VFL, and by then Armstrong'll have cemented his spot in the 21. Poor guy.

[Ziplock]

Belarus Bison- LaHug
Predicted ranking: 3rd (1514)

Team:

Backs: Scotland (100), Suckling (83), Duffield (95), Mitchell (105)
Troy Chaplin, Luke Russell, Luke Brown,  Jason Blake, Nathan Wright, Blayne Wilson

Mids: Rockliff (C-220), Mundy (97), Kelly (95), Ball (93)
Clint Jones, Daniel Jackson, Xavier Ellis, Kyle Martin,Jordan Gysberts, Alex Woodward, Brad McKenzie, Nick Graham, L Dunstan, J Jansen, S. Lemmens

Ruc: Lobbe (88)
Sam Jacobs, Angus Graham

Fwd: Sylvia (93), Monfries (95), de Boer (80), Darling (80)
Quinten Lynch, Liam Jones, Lucas Cook, Tim Membrey, Mason Wood, Max Duffy, Brant Colledge, J Cripps, B Lennon, M Paparone

Util: Stokes (100), Hutchings (90)

Analysis: While I think I've been a *little* generous in several cases, I see this team as being quite comfortably top 4.

backs: Scotland and Duffield are both pretty generous, but neither of them would be particularly surprising. Mitchell I think will explode back this year DT wise, while I think low 80s is right for suckling. I'm actually feeling like I have an out of date bench, since thorntons still there... I hope it's out of date personally, because that cover's pretty average, I mean there's wright and brown developing, but chaplin's the only one there best 22, and he's a pretty average scorer. It shouldn't be much of an issue, as none of the Bison's best 4 are particulary prone to missing games (although rookie listed scotland would have them sweating), but still, it's a bit of a hole in a premiership contender.
*edit* Luke Russell (rather than Jordan) adds a bit more youth, while the same scoring potential atm, and Wilson could provide reasonable depth if he gets more consistent games, which alleviates some of the depth concerns.

Mids: Rockliff's a beast, While Mundy, Kelly and Ball are all consistent 90+ scorers. Hutchings also looks good for 90+ if given an opportunity, and despite his injury interrupted pre-seaon, stokes should be able to push for 100 once again. Jackson averaged 90 last year, not that I would bank on him keeping that up, but should still be ok cover, and Jones plays most games, but really cover's still an issue in this line.
*edit* Ellis if fit provides more cover, and the new draftees means that progression wise, this Bison should be fine.

Rucks: I think high 80s is Lobbe's ceiling for the next couple of years while he continues to develop. The cover for him is ridiculously terrible as well.
*edit* with Sam Jacobs at the club, the line's a lot better with two solid rucks.

Fwd: At a new (and better) club, I think sylvia should return to 90+ averages, if fully fit. Monfries for 95 is, in hindsight, a bit generous, but I  think 80s from darling/ deboer are about right. Quinten Lynch and Liam Jones are essentially the only cover for this  line though, which is also a bit worrying... the rest of the Bison's forwards are still developing, and none of them have reasonable JS yet.
*edit* the new players to this line help with the future of the forwards, but the immediate issue of cover isn't really resolved.

Overall: The Bison are really looking like the top 4 version of the trolls... they're top 4 easily with their best, but even one injury could derail their entire season. Outside of Serbia/ Sweden, they're probably the only other potential contenders for the flag... and on their day they could seriously compete for it.
*edit* now I have the right benches, I can do a proper assessment- Bison have a bit better depth than I initially thought, especially in the ruckline,  however they're seriously lacking quality cover in the backs, and most concerning is the lack of immediate depth in the forward line, which (unless several breakouts occur this year), should really be addressed next season.