2014 Predictions

[Holz]

Quality stuff ziplock. Really good reads.

[Ziplock]

so I've done a bottom team by my count, and a team pushing for the 8, so I'm going to do a top 4 team next. Stay tuned :P

[Ziplock]

Belgium Bashers: Elephants
Predicted ranking: 4 (1490)]

So, I have the Bashers moving up +3 places from last year, with a 22+ point differential from the end of the first trade period, which is pretty solid. They had, once again, a pretty productive trade period gaining players like Roughead, Franklin and Cotchin to bolster their team.

Backs: Birchall (88), Seedsman (80), Houli (80), Terlich (80)
Daniel Nicholson, Brent Reilly, Jackson Allen, Ben Sinclair, Kyle Hartigan, Jimmy Webster

Mids: Selwood (C, 220), Murphy (105), Cotchin (105), Priddis (95)
Lachie Neale, Danny Stanley, Andrew Carrazzo, Matt Rosa, Matt Crouch, George Horlin-Smith, Nick Robertson, Jake Lloyd, Nathan Gordon, Tim Broomhead

Rucks: (Mcintosh (85)
Mike Pyke, Dawson Simpson, Rory Lobb

Forwards: Franklin (102), Robinson (95), Roughead (95), Bird (80)

Utility: Redden (100), Thomas (80)

I'll preface their list assessment by saying that I know the Basher's coaching staff will kick up a fuss over several players, but I'll give my reasoning.

Analysis:
Backs: There's Birchall as a proven gun, and I've got him pegged at 88. I can already see FARK foaming at the mouth at that estimate, as he types one handed that Birch will be 100+, but honestly coming back from injury I can't see him improving much, and I don't think he'll be getting fed the ball as much as he did early in the season with suckling back. To be fair, he probably won't get tagged as much either, but we'll see- I think high 80s, maybe scraping 90 is a conservative best case scenario for him.

I've got Seedsman at 80, which he about averaged this year unvested. He's a monstrously inconsistent player though, and that's what I think limited his games somewhat (unless he picked up an injury I missed?). I also, unlike everyone else apparently, don't see him as a necessary lock in the Pies 21- I think he'll be vying for a position in the best, but I don't think he's got one cemented yet.  Given a lack of defensive scoring depth at the bashers, I honestly think 80 might be generous for seedsman if he doesn't have perfect JS yet.

Houli's a high 70s to mid 80s player, might be underrated a bit at 80, but he's more likely to average 77-80 than he is to average 85+ in my books, and historically speaking as well. Terlich averaged 80 in his first year, and came 3rd in the demons best and fairest, so for a second year player his JS is as good as it gets. However, Terlich averaged 90 in the games that grimes missed this season, whether that's coincidental, or because he took of Grimes' role somewhat while he was out, I don't really know. But it's something to be a little concerned about if Grimes puts together a full season (so maybe not something to be hugely worried over...)

The defensive depth is, as I said, very average. There's Nicholson, who's average (anyplayer who's only just managed to crack the demons 22 in half the games over the last couple of years can't be described as anything else.). Reilly's 31 and coming off a broken leg, Sinclair, Hartigan, Webster are all young developing players, either without good JS, or poor scoring ability atm... or both. An injury more than a week or two could seriously damage the basher's backline.

Mids: It's quite a beastial mid. Selwood is probably a little overrated by me, especially considering he's had an interrupted preseason, and Murphy could honestly be up to 10 points lower than what I've pegged him at. I feel like Cotchin is probably within about 3 points eitherway what he'll score this year, while I'd call Priddis close to dead on. I'm tipping Redden to bounce back a little this year- another couple and he'll be a legit gun again. I don't actually see Thomas averaging much over 80 this year, but they have Stanley, Carrazzo and Rosa, one of which should be able to pull out a 90 average.

As I just mentioned, They have ok midfield depth, and the rest of their mids are young with decent long term prospects- Neale should be great in a year or two, Crouch I personally see as touch and go, as most of you know, and the rest are ok-ish. However, an injury to the midfield would seriously hurt the bashers, unless Thomas improves on the 80 odd I've got him set at.

Rucks: Mcintosh is a beast when fit, but Pyke should be good for 80+ this season as well, and Simpson's there if Hmac goes down, with Lobb developing. It would be close to one of my favourite rucklines... if Mcintosh wasn't so injury prone and was churning out the 90+ we know he can, I'd be tempted  to call it my favourite :P

Forwards: Franklin/ Roughead are both A-grade forwards, and while I think I've overrated Robinson, I really think that 95 is more than achievable from him. Their 4th lets them down a fair bit- Bird's inconsistent role gives his inconsistent scoring and subsequently only an ok average. There's not many players who could really fill that 4th spot either on the list (unless I've missing some players?). If knights gets a decent run without injuries he *could* be an 80+ player... frankly though, I see 70-75 as about his limit nowadays, and his JS is far from certain. I actually could see Jenkins having a mini-breakout year when Walker comes back, but until then, or if Walker gets reinjured, I don't see him improving much. Jpod is nearly done, Rohan isn't really a Dter and Riley Knight is a project player.

Overall summary: With a bit of luck in finals, they could take the premiership if they can take top 4. The biggest concern with this team is it's depth though. It's very poor in both the backs and forwards, a little average in the mids and only really solid in the ruckline. I think the immediate concern would be the forward line though- the backs have some developing players with a bit of potential, while the forward line is very light. To get top 4 this year, the bashers need fingers crossed on dodging injuries and suspension.

[Vinny]

They don't have Daisy anymore, I do. Nice write up though man.

[Ziplock]

They don't have Daisy anymore, I do. Nice write up though man.

they have josh thomas dont they?

[Vinny]

Oh shower, my bad man. Forgot about him, Sorry.

[elephants]

Belgium Bashers: Elephants
Predicted ranking: 4 (1490)]

So, I have the Bashers moving up +3 places from last year, with a 22+ point differential from the end of the first trade period, which is pretty solid. They had, once again, a pretty productive trade period gaining players like Roughead, Franklin and Cotchin to bolster their team.

Thanks, we love a good trading period ;)

I'll preface their list assessment by saying that I know the Basher's coaching staff will kick up a fuss over several players, but I'll give my reasoning.

Haha here it comes!

Analysis:
Backs: There's Birchall as a proven gun, and I've got him pegged at 88. I can already see FARK foaming at the mouth at that estimate, as he types one handed that Birch will be 100+, but honestly coming back from injury I can't see him improving much, and I don't think he'll be getting fed the ball as much as he did early in the season with suckling back. To be fair, he probably won't get tagged as much either, but we'll see- I think high 80s, maybe scraping 90 is a conservative best case scenario for him.

I probably agree with that Birchall estimate. The injury won't effect him but I see him copping the occasional tag.

I've got Seedsman at 80, which he about averaged this year unvested. He's a monstrously inconsistent player though, and that's what I think limited his games somewhat (unless he picked up an injury I missed?). I also, unlike everyone else apparently, don't see him as a necessary lock in the Pies 21- I think he'll be vying for a position in the best, but I don't think he's got one cemented yet.  Given a lack of defensive scoring depth at the bashers, I honestly think 80 might be generous for seedsman if he doesn't have perfect JS yet.

Actually, Seedy went 80 subbed, 89 unsubbed ;)

Houli's a high 70s to mid 80s player, might be underrated a bit at 80, but he's more likely to average 77-80 than he is to average 85+ in my books, and historically speaking as well. Terlich averaged 80 in his first year, and came 3rd in the demons best and fairest, so for a second year player his JS is as good as it gets. However, Terlich averaged 90 in the games that grimes missed this season, whether that's coincidental, or because he took of Grimes' role somewhat while he was out, I don't really know. But it's something to be a little concerned about if Grimes puts together a full season (so maybe not something to be hugely worried over...)

Houli and Terlich will average low 80's between them. Very handy for D3/4.

The defensive depth is, as I said, very average. There's Nicholson, who's average (anyplayer who's only just managed to crack the demons 22 in half the games over the last couple of years can't be described as anything else.). Reilly's 31 and coming off a broken leg, Sinclair, Hartigan, Webster are all young developing players, either without good JS, or poor scoring ability atm... or both. An injury more than a week or two could seriously damage the basher's backline.

Reilly never broke his leg..? haha. Regardless he has done all pre-season and is a best 22 at the Crows. I would be confident in one of Nico, Sinclair, Hartigan and Webster getting a game each week ;)

Mids: It's quite a beastial mid. Selwood is probably a little overrated by me, especially considering he's had an interrupted preseason, and Murphy could honestly be up to 10 points lower than what I've pegged him at. I feel like Cotchin is probably within about 3 points either way what he'll score this year, while I'd call Priddis close to dead on. I'm tipping Redden to bounce back a little this year- another couple and he'll be a legit gun again. I don't actually see Thomas averaging much over 80 this year, but they have Stanley, Carrazzo and Rosa, one of which should be able to pull out a 90 average.

As I just mentioned, They have ok midfield depth, and the rest of their mids are young with decent long term prospects- Neale should be great in a year or two, Crouch I personally see as touch and go, as most of you know, and the rest are ok-ish. However, an injury to the midfield would seriously hurt the bashers, unless Thomas improves on the 80 odd I've got him set at.

What do you reckon of our Fyfe + Addison for Cotchin + Dawson Simpson trade man?

Rucks: Mcintosh is a beast when fit, but Pyke should be good for 80+ this season as well, and Simpson's there if Hmac goes down, with Lobb developing. It would be close to one of my favourite rucklines... if Mcintosh wasn't so injury prone and was churning out the 90+ we know he can, I'd be tempted  to call it my favourite :P

#bestruckdivintheleague ;)

Overall summary: With a bit of luck in finals, they could take the premiership if they can take top 4. The biggest concern with this team is it's depth though. It's very poor in both the backs and forwards, a little average in the mids and only really solid in the ruckline. I think the immediate concern would be the forward line though- the backs have some developing players with a bit of potential, while the forward line is very light. To get top 4 this year, the bashers need fingers crossed on dodging injuries and suspension.

Very poor forward depth? Knights, Jpod and Jenkins and Rohan are all best 22 players. And down back I would back at least one of those four young backs to get a game at any given week. And you just said we could have 4 90+ average midfielders on our bench... I don't see how that is average mid depth :P

Agree with everything but don't get how you can knock our depth as much as you did ;)

[Ziplock]

why'd riley miss so much of the season then?

I'm not a richmond supporter, but I wouldn't call knights best 22. Rohan/ Jenkins are both 60 players... they'd be ok for like F7+ 8 or even F6+7, but you really want a 70-80 forward for F5 in best 22... which knights doesn't fulfill.

[Nige]

As a Richmond supporter, a fit Chris Knights is best 22.

[Vinny]

As a Carlton supporter, Richmond suck. :P

[nrich102]

As a non victorian based AFL supporter, all Victorian clubs suck :P

[Vinny]

As a human being, Sam Michael is a spud.

[elephants]

why'd riley miss so much of the season then?

Shoulder injury, he's completed pre-season in full and is a lock best 22 Crows player.

I'm not a richmond supporter, but I wouldn't call knights best 22. Rohan/ Jenkins are both 60 players... they'd be ok for like F7+ 8 or even F6+7, but you really want a 70-80 forward for F5 in best 22... which knights doesn't fulfill.

I know a lot of Richmond supporters that would defintely disagree with you. Aaaand uninjured Knights went 87 soooo I'd say he's a very handy F5 ;)

Jenkins went 67 last season while copping the best defender. Definitely set to build on that. Jpod (who you're completely ignoring) to Adelaide will help both JJ and Jpod's scoring. We got Rohan basically for free sooo... :P

As a Richmond supporter, a fit Chris Knights is best 22.

+1 and BOOM.

As a Carlton supporter, Richmond suck. :P

Hahaha 8)

As a non victorian based AFL supporter, all Victorian clubs suck :P

+1 :P

[nrich102]

As a human being, Sam Michael is a spud.

How. Did. You. Know. Im. Not. Human?? Stalker alert?

[CrowsFan]

why'd riley miss so much of the season then?

It was Aidan Riley who broke his leg for the Crows, not Brent Reilly ;)