2014 Predictions

[elephants]

If Holz chokes again and doesn't take out the comp, I'll be calling tanking.

[Scrads]

Awesome, I am keen :)

[Ziplock]

ok, sweet, thanks vinny.

[Ziplock]

Ok, So currently I have the rankings (average per round), in a conservative best case scenario for most teams

1. Serbia- 1585
2. Sweden- 1547
3. Belarus- 1514
4- Belgium- 1490
5. Svalbard-  1470
6. Russia- 1469
7. Macedonia- 1428
8. Iceland- 1425
9. Norway- 1408
10. Scotland- 1402
11. England- 1350
12. Spain- 1322
13. Greece- 1295
14. Holland (Dutch Dinos)- 1165

Ok, so keep in mind when comparing to last year, I'm using ladder positions rather than finals series (since I'm attempting to predict the ladder, not finals).

So, biggest moves since last year- Trolls +6
Basher, Valkeries +3
Bison +2

Russia, Greece -4
Macedonia -3
Iceland -2

Biggest point change since the end of  the first trade period (when I first did a list assessment)

Dutch Dinos +260
Belarus Bison + 73
Macedonian Wolves +46
Swedish Metal, Belgium Bashers, Spanish Stallions +22

Greek Titans -70
Russian Roulettes -61
English Lions -35

I'll do write ups on the teams some time soon.

[elephants]

Even if I think we should be 3rd, love your work Zip ;)

[Nails]

Zip do you think the Jobe trade hurt or helps us?

IDK how to feel about it and as the only person who knows the best XV of the  Metal I'd like your thoughts?

The thing about the Metal is we're stronger than our best XV. It's the fact we have 5 or so 90+ average midfielders sitting in the wings

The fact we have 4 forwards as good as our F4 waiting for injuries

The fact that any of our defenders could really be starts.

The fact we have the TWO best rucks in the competition

So when injury strikes we still score like it's our best XV

Injury strikes another team? bye bye.

[elephants]

With the retirement village that is your team, you need enormous depth to even compete.

[Nails]

retirement village?

Our team is the most durable in the competition champ. Dean Cox - hasn't missed a game in 4 seasons.
Dane Swan - like gun
Montagna - hasn't played less than 20 games since 2006
Bartel - hasn't played less than 19 games since 2004
Enright - hasn't played less than 20 games since 2005
Murphy - 18+ games last 4 seasons
Dal Santo - hasn't played less than 21 games since 2003

There are just a few

Our team may be old, but it's built around durability.

[Ziplock]

Greek Titans: Spinking
Predicted ranking: 13

Team:
Backs: Vlaustuin (75), Harwood (65), Guthrie (65), Roughead (70)
[M Scharenberg, C Garland, A Kennedy, J Trengove, C Heath, K McIntosh, S Colquhoun, D Gardiner]

Mids: Sidebottom (C, 210), Hannebery (90), Scully (90), Liberatore (90)
[J Toumpas, J ORourke, D Myers, S Ross, K Lucas, T Hunt, A Morabito]

Rucks: Gawn (65)
[Longer, Redden]

Fwd: Smith (70), Zorko (85), Jetta (75), Macaffer (70)
[J Patton, A Tomlinson, B Smedts, A Hall,  T Milera, R Atkins, M Karpany]

Util: Coniglio(85), Ellis (90)

Analysis: I feel pretty bad for spinking that I've rated his team as dropping so many rankings this year, but to be fair, I don't think this is necessarily due to a decrease in team quality, but rather a handful of retirements combined with the expected rise of some other teams such as the Trolls.

The main issue with this team is the number of currently average players spread out across the lines as Greece's youth continues to develop.

Backs: There's a solid starting youngster in Vlaustuin, and I've heard a bit from cat's supporters highly rating guthrie. I might have been a touch generous with Roughead, although I do personally rate him (and any ex-Valkyrie is automatically a beast.), to be honest I don't know much about Harwood, and so I'm uncertain on his fantasy relevance. Scharenberg and Colquhoun should develop into solid DTers, and Kennedy despite playing in a non-DT friendly role will provide good cover, along with Trengove as he develops. Until they're all ready though, Garland along with Trengove should provide reasonable cover. Gardiner despite being a high draft kick had really average TAC cup stats, I'm not sure if I'd bet on him, and Heath will always be a little average. I'd wait until McIntosh makes a debut before casting judgement on his scoring ability though.

In summary: Greece Will probably end up with 3-4 solid DTing backs with the list they currently have, obviously adding another young gun would be preferable for a bit of certainty and depth.

Mids: Sidebottom's already a gun, and Hannebery, Scully, Liberatore, Coniglio, Ellis will all be 90-100+ players in a year or two. Toumpas, O'Rourke, Morabito, Ross and Lucas are still developing but should all prove handy, while hunt and myers should hopefully provide some depth while the aforementioned youngsters are cementing a spot in their 21. Overall, it's a pretty decent and promising mix- could hypothetically end up with up to 10 or more premium/ quasi-premium midfielders

Rucks: no immediate high scoring potential, but 3 of the best young ruckmen/ DT prospects in the comp, so pretty solid.

Forwards: Zorko's scoring is, as we know, positionally dependent, he could be 100+, he could be a 75 player. It depends. Smith will be a decent DTer if he gets more midfield rotation, otherwise spink will have to wait until GWS get a bit better. I don't think Macaffer will ever be truly DT relevant, imo he's just a bandaid while some of the younger players develop. Jetta... mid 80s is about his ceiling, although I don't think he'll get there this year with an injury interrupted preseason. Patton, Tomlinson will both be 90+ players in 2-3 years, and smedts+ hall have potential as well. Atkins needs to work on his consistency from memory,  Milera won't be too much use other than depth and Karpany looks a little average DT wise.

Summary: I think with Zorko, Smith, Tomlinson, Patton, Smedts there'll be probably four 90+ players in a couple of years.


Overall summary: I think that Spink can sit tight on his rucksand mids for now. Next trade period/ draft he should focus on grabbing another couple young decent backs, and if he can a forward (although that isn't as necessary). Spinks large amount of youth means that hypothetically, he could have several breakouts in every line, which would completely skew my prediction... if there's a significant number of break outs, and greece pushes for the 8 again this year, I'd be tempted to pick up an older ruck as well next year and see if the team can be competitive in 2015 finals.

[elephants]

retirement village?

Our team is the most durable in the competition champ. Dean Cox - hasn't missed a game in 4 seasons.
Dane Swan - like gun
Montagna - hasn't played less than 20 games since 2006
Bartel - hasn't played less than 19 games since 2004
Enright - hasn't played less than 20 games since 2005
Murphy - 18+ games last 4 seasons
Dal Santo - hasn't played less than 21 games since 2003

There are just a few

Our team may be old, but it's built around durability.

Ahh, so your players get 1-2 week niggling injuries and rests instead of freak serious ones, noice :P And you can't be using those stats way back to 2005. Thats when those players were young and in their prime! The only thing that matters for your veterans is the future.

Oh, and don't call me champ, champ ;)

#teamofspuds

[Ziplock]

Zip do you think the Jobe trade hurt or helps us?

IDK how to feel about it and as the only person who knows the best XV of the  Metal I'd like your thoughts?

The thing about the Metal is we're stronger than our best XV. It's the fact we have 5 or so 90+ average midfielders sitting in the wings

The fact we have 4 forwards as good as our F4 waiting for injuries

The fact that any of our defenders could really be starts.

The fact we have the TWO best rucks in the competition

So when injury strikes we still score like it's our best XV

Injury strikes another team? bye bye.

TBH, I have you about 5 points up without jobe... you would have been better off if you'd done that trade with me though :P

Metal's strength is it's depth- I wouldn't be so confident in your backline though, I think your average age for your best 6 is literally around 32, and your youngsters won't develop fast enough.

You have four 90+ mids on your bench as cover, so you're fine there, and with minson and cox should be right for rucks.

your forward line is a little more average, you should be able to scrape a 4th 80+ player (probability wise, it's a decent bet), but I wouldn't count on your depth too much there either. An injury to the back or forward line could hurt you more than you think this year.

[Nails]

retirement village?

Our team is the most durable in the competition champ. Dean Cox - hasn't missed a game in 4 seasons.
Dane Swan - like gun
Montagna - hasn't played less than 20 games since 2006
Bartel - hasn't played less than 19 games since 2004
Enright - hasn't played less than 20 games since 2005
Murphy - 18+ games last 4 seasons
Dal Santo - hasn't played less than 21 games since 2003

There are just a few

Our team may be old, but it's built around durability.

Ahh, so your players get 1-2 week niggling injuries and rests instead of freak serious ones, noice :P And you can't be using those stats way back to 2005. Thats when those players were young and in their prime! The only thing that matters for your veterans is the future.

Oh, and don't call me champ, champ ;)

#teamofspuds

You realise on average young players get injured more? Their bodies aren't used to the rigours of AFL

Look at players like Jack Grimes, Higgins etc.

[Ziplock]

retirement village?

Our team is the most durable in the competition champ. Dean Cox - hasn't missed a game in 4 seasons.
Dane Swan - like gun
Montagna - hasn't played less than 20 games since 2006
Bartel - hasn't played less than 19 games since 2004
Enright - hasn't played less than 20 games since 2005
Murphy - 18+ games last 4 seasons
Dal Santo - hasn't played less than 21 games since 2003

There are just a few

Our team may be old, but it's built around durability.

Ahh, so your players get 1-2 week niggling injuries and rests instead of freak serious ones, noice :P And you can't be using those stats way back to 2005. Thats when those players were young and in their prime! The only thing that matters for your veterans is the future.

Oh, and don't call me champ, champ ;)

#teamofspuds

You realise on average young players get injured more? Their bodies aren't used to the rigours of AFL

Look at players like Jack Grimes, Higgins etc.

it's not just injury, but their form is more likely to drop. Injuries are more likely to be unfixable and season/ career ending as well.

[elephants]

retirement village?

Our team is the most durable in the competition champ. Dean Cox - hasn't missed a game in 4 seasons.
Dane Swan - like gun
Montagna - hasn't played less than 20 games since 2006
Bartel - hasn't played less than 19 games since 2004
Enright - hasn't played less than 20 games since 2005
Murphy - 18+ games last 4 seasons
Dal Santo - hasn't played less than 21 games since 2003

There are just a few

Our team may be old, but it's built around durability.

Ahh, so your players get 1-2 week niggling injuries and rests instead of freak serious ones, noice :P And you can't be using those stats way back to 2005. Thats when those players were young and in their prime! The only thing that matters for your veterans is the future.

Oh, and don't call me champ, champ ;)

#teamofspuds

You realise on average young players get injured more? Their bodies aren't used to the rigours of AFL

Look at players like Jack Grimes, Higgins etc.

Haha picks out the two most injury prone players in the AFL, qualityyyyyyy. Old bodies needs resting and these players are on the decline.

[Scrads]

Interesting that you have rated the Wolves will score better, but become worse :P