2014 Predictions

[Holz]

Quality as usual.

Always seem to leave Serbia right till the end. Interested to hear your thoughts on the eagles.

[Ziplock]

Quality as usual.

Always seem to leave Serbia right till the end. Interested to hear your thoughts on the eagles.

There's still like 5 teams left to do... I've been slacking off and drinking chronically. :P

[Ziplock]

I'm going to finish off the top 8 first before I do the last couple :P

[Ziplock]

Serbian Eagles- Holzman
Predicted ranking: 1st (1585)

Team:

B: Hibberd (90), Simpson (95), Shaw (93), Adcock (82)
Fisher, Malceski, Thompson, Schade, Lester, Mohr, Laidler, Clurey, Weller, Healtherley, Giles, Delaney, Bruce, Delaney

Mids: Pendlebury (C,232), Goddard (110, Deledio (105), Barlow (110)
Boyd, Anthony, Boston

Ruc: Goldstein (95)
Sandilands, Clarke

Fwd: Cloke (95), Harvey (90), Kennedy (90), Martin (103)
Lecras, Petrie, Siposs, Harper, Schneider, Tarrant


Utility: Douglas (95), Gibbs (100)

Analysis:

Looking at this team, in hindsight I may have overrated the backline slightly. But I still think they're viable enough estimates to keep.

Backs: It's a really solid top four- none of those players should average under 80, and the top 3 could all push 100 if lucky. The cover is alright, without being super amazing. At their best Fisher/ Malceski would have been amazing cover, but Fisher's probably past it now, while I'm a little doubtful about Malceski backing it up. However, the rest of the cover is a reasonable mix of either decent JS or reasonable potential. It's definitely one of the better backlines.

Mids: The fact that boyd's riding the pine is all you need to say about this midfield- that being said, personally I'm considering starting Boyd in AFL fantasy, and personally I doubt he'll be there for long. Having a genuine premium in the bank, along with a noted ball winner is a pretty decent line to me. Top of the range midfield as well, with boston developing.

Rucks: Goldstein is a top shelf ruckman, as in Sandilands when fit, and probably Clarke in a year or two. One of the better ruck lines as well

Forwards: Imo, Martin is a top 3 forward this year. Harvey has shown year in and out he can produce solid scores, and cloke and kennedy should be able to keep at their best. Considering the fact most teams are struggling with forwards atm, having Petrie and Lecras on the bench is pretty impressive, with Harper developing as well.

Overall, I see this as pretty easily the best team in the comp. For this year, it'll come down to the day for Serbia and Sweden imo, I've got Serbia on top atm, but we know how earily that can change. What makes this team solid is just pure quality cover over ever line- they have an 80+ and high 70s back on the bench, a 100+ midfielder (2, if anthony can take the field), 2 80-90 rucks and two 80+ forwards... on the bench, which is ridiculous considering several teams are missing players of that calibre from their field. What else is impressive is the age spread- the forward line with Harvey (and petrie/ lecras on the pine) is probably the worst off, but every other line is basically full of players in their prime.

The premiership is Serbia's to lose imo this year, and probably next year. Depending on their trading and drafting and how well they cover holes in a retiring forward line remains to be seen, but this could be a powerhouse team for the next five years at leas.t

[LaHug]

One floor with this is that Harvey will not average anywhere near 90 imo because I think he'll play more of a sub-affected role this year. I read about it somewhere (newspaper or online... can't remember) and it made a lot of sense.
Still, Lecca will be around 80ish so that doesn't change much.

[Holz]

good analysis, definitely need to work on that forward line. its why i brought in martin.

Martin Cloke Lecras JJK should stick around for a long time but need to find one more.

Personally I dont see shaw doing that well, I think eski will outscore him but its hard to judge with the move to GWS.

[Ziplock]

taking out Harvey's first quarter injury in 2009 (where he finished on 0 for the game), his lowest average since 2005 has been 85, he's been crazy consistent on a year to year basis, I think he'll keep on  motoring :P

[Holz]

taking out Harvey's first quarter injury in 2009 (where he finished on 0 for the game), his lowest average since 2005 has been 85, he's been crazy consistent on a year to year basis, I think he'll keep on  motoring :P

the guy is immortal, 90 seems a fair score (maybee a little under ;) )

[Ziplock]

Russian Roulettes- Nostradamus
Predicted ranking: 6th (1469)

Team:

Backs: Hodge (95), Hansen (75), Lumumba (85), Burgoyne (80)
Pears, Broadbent, Clisby, McDonald

Mids: Ablett (C,250), Griffen (105), Treloar (90), O'Keefe (95)
Foley, S Hill, Mackay, Moloney, Bell, Savage, Sheed, Dumont, Lang, Acres

Rucks: Kreuzer (85)
Bellchambers, Nakervis

Forwards: Tippett (80), Chapman (95), Walker (75), Motlop (79)
Yarran, Reid, Cameron, Hogan, Kerridge, Dickson, Varcoe, Menzel, Hunger

Util: Moloney (80), Green (100)

Analysis: I've tipped Russia to fall the most places this year (-4), albeit, they're only on average one point behind Svalbard, and most of that drop can be attributed to the loss of Swan/ Riewoldt, which probably costed them about 40-45ppg (which would have them vying for top 3). That being said, I think it was a reasonable move, gaining Cameron and Treloar from it notably, but also Tapscott and Mcdonald.

Backs: It's a solid backline. Hodge could be anywhere between 80-100, and 95 might be a bit generous, but I think it's reasonable. The others are all pretty reasonable estimates in my opinion. The cover's alright- Broadbent/ clisby are both 70-80+ backs, and should be able to replace the lower backmen pretty well. Mcdonald's still developing and Pears showed he can score ok if need be. A bit above average for backlines.

Mids: Even the loss of Swan still leaves this midfield pretty strong. Ablett's a beast (although, I would have considered farming him off as well, considering the loss of Swan hurts Russia's premiership chances so badly, and he holds so much currency), but as a captain his value is undeniable. Girffen is also very solid, while ROK's contribution shouldn't be underestimated, and with young guns Greene/ Treloar developing on field, it's pretty solid. Moloney's probably a little weak, and I can see that utility position changing hands a bit throughout the year. The cover's pretty average atm, but the potential is reasonably impressive. Foley could be a serviceable mid if he could stay fit, Mackay is an average DTer though and I'm not sure if Hill will ever be DT relevant.But Savage, Sheed and Acres developing (not forgetting about Treloar/ Greene), means the future of this midfield could be pretty decent.

Rucks: Kreuzer/ Bellchambers are both close to premium rucks, and with Nankervis developing on the bench it's a pretty decent line.

Forwards: I would have tipped Tippett higher if he hadn't be injured, and subsequently 80 might be a little generous, but I think he's a little underrated. Chapman I may have placed too highly as well, that being said, it's completely possible. 75 for walker would be a best case scenario coming back from injury. Considering motlop's injured, I definitely think 79 is overrating him unfortunately. Basically, it would be a solid starting 4 if it wasn't for injuries. The developing youth is what's impressive in this line, considering so many teams are struggling for young fowards- Yarran, Reid, Cameron, Hogan, Kerridge, Hunter could all very well be premium sooner rather than later... or at least they have the potential to do so. If I had to pick it, I'd say Hunter (if he keeps dpp) and Cameron will be the quickest of the lot to develop into decent forwards.

Summary: Overall, it's one of the best balanced teams in the comp, in terms of immediate scoring potential and for long term viability. The premiership is unfortunately probably beyond them this year, but the use of draft picks to secure another young pack/ mid means that the window could open again very soon.