2014 ladder predictions

[specky92]

That's a good point Ringo, most people are probably aware of that. I know I don't expect much from Brisbane but it's not all to do with their list, mainly to do with the fact they have an incredibly tough fixture and a really hard first half, they only have one or two likely games to win and even then they still might not get those

Before our R10 bye, we could win these games:
R2: Geelong at the Gabba
R3: Suns at Metricon
R4: Port at Adelaide Oval
R5: Tigers at the Gabba
R6: Saints at Wellington
R8: Bombers at the Gabba

I would be disappointed if we didn't win at least 3

We are starting to turn the Gabba into a fortress again so hopefully will build on that this year. Playing Geelong in second round is preferable especially with Geelong trying to work out combinations with retirements and players delisted.
As You say Suns at Metricon is not a given now and can go either way.
So imo very winnable games are Geelong, Suns, Tigers (especially on Easter Thursday as our blockbuster game), and Saints. Bombers amy also be winnable depending on which bombers team turn up.

yep but I'm confident in us especially around round 8 is normally when we're at our peak, had it been round 18 I would almost pencil you guys in

[Toga]

Sorry to intrude but idk how Brisbane vs Richmond becomes a should win game (or however you want to word it) when we haven't lost to you for four years now, and you've only beaten us once since 2006... ???

[kilbluff1985]

They are delusional that's why

[GoLions]

Where have we said that we are definitely going to win these games? We're saying that they are winnable games. There's a massive difference. We should be much better than last year, and as Ringo said, we're starting to make the Gabba a fortress once again. There's every chance we will lose these games, but you guys are making it out as if we have a 0% chance of winning, which is just stupid.

[Vinny]

Settle down fellas, Blues got both of you covered ;) I hope... :-[

[Ziplock]

Almost any game is technically winnable... the questions should be, if you play your best and they play their best, can you beat them? If you play your worst and they play their worse, can you beat them?

Fact is, except for stk, that isn't true for any of those team. GC might be considered a 50/50, and flower knows what is going to happen with essendon next season.

The next question should be how often do you play your best/ worst compared to your opponents?
and truthfully ladder position and % demonstrates this best, which would basically indicate what I just said.

Then you have to consider the difference in performance from last season to next season. GC should improve with the maturation of their youth. Saints will do worse with the loss of veteran players, imo port will stay the same (in ability anyway which'll affect their game to game performance, not necessarily in ladder position). I can see geelong sliding, but I wouldn't put them out of the 8 in ability either. Once again, essendon's a wild card.

If I had to ascribe an arbitary % values to your most likely wins...

I'd go with Stk- 95
Gold Cost- 50
Essendon- 33 (if they come out firing you've got minimal chance of winning, if they come out not firing it's a 50/50)

I'd put games against the like of richmond/ port as less than 15% and geelong less than 5.


So, that would make your chance of winning all those games like 00.02% and your chance of winning your 3 most likely games at 15%. Obviously you could win other combinations of those games as well, as well as win more games than 3 and I cbf working that out, but at quick estimate, I'd say you have somewhere around a 50% chance of winning at least 3 games

Which tbh, is a bit higher than I expected.

[Ziplock]

Actually, in hindsight I'd go closer to 55-60. W.e, point stands :P

[Toga]

Where have we said that we are definitely going to win these games? We're saying that they are winnable games. There's a massive difference. We should be much better than last year, and as Ringo said, we're starting to make the Gabba a fortress once again. There's every chance we will lose these games, but you guys are making it out as if we have a 0% chance of winning, which is just stupid.

I don't think you'll lose them all, I think you'll definitely win a couple :)

And I know what you mean that there's a difference between winnable and definite-win games, BUT I've heard a few "could very easily beat all of them"'s here on this thread... Now I know meanings can be a bit lost in translation on forums etc but the easily makes it sound like an expected win.

Anyways dw guys I'm sure you will do ok, not saying by any means that you're not gonna notch a couple of wins up on the board early in the season! :)

[strikes91]

Settle down fellas, Blues got both of you covered ;) I hope... :-[

that bloke with a bald head does alright at the gabba

[Vinny]

The Great Bald Bloke will destroy the Lions next time he goes up there. :)

[Ricochet]

The Great Bald Bloke will destroy the Lions next time he goes up there. :)

Ablett  :P

[Vinny]

Sorry I should have said the greatest. My bad! ;)

[elephants]

Chris Spudd hey? One quarter a year all you're after? ;) :P

[kilbluff1985]

Chris Spudd hey? One quarter a year all you're after? ;) :P

you still not done your ladder yet?

[elephants]

I'm just going to assume ya'll value my opinion immensely ;)

Freo
Hawks
Sydney
Cats
Pies
Tigers
Eagles
Bombers
-----------------
Blues
North
Port
Adelaide
Brisbane
Dogs
Suns
Melbourne
GWS
Saints

Cue the angry Eagle-haters, Blues, North, Port, Crows, Dogs and Saints fans (or fan in the Saints case).