2014 ladder predictions

[kilbluff1985]

I have no doubt that the Bulldogs will improve, can see them ahead of GWS, Saints, Melbourne, Adelaide, Brisbane, Carlton even!

Fixed matey

[Vinny]

Meow, what about Hunter, Hrovat and Stevens. I liked what I saw. Will anyone one of them get regular games next year?

[Vinny]

Yeah fair enough, thanks mate. All should be solid players one day :)

[Mat0369]

"Kerr just retired" ... Ummm so? He took the #1 tag, shielding our young players like Gaffy and Shuey from it. He's a class player and would still be in if it weren't for his aging body.

So Kerr is retired, meaning who is getting the tag? Gaff and Shuey......

Waters doesn't need to play every game, but more than 6 would be preferable. Plus this point is irrelevant, he's easily a best 22 player and was injured last season, hence we suffered.

He might be in your best 22 but he still has to get on the park. Carlton have had the same problem with Waite. They have had a heavy reliance on these injury prone players to perform, but if you keep relying on these guys you end up disappointed every season.

Lecca injury prone? Missed games this season with two freak injuries (broken arm and broken ribs) and obviously did his ACL in 2012 but before that he played 61 of a possible 66 games!? Seems pretty durable to me!

He has missed a large amount of games the last two seasons, but injury prone or not, his strength before he did his ACL was in his goal kicking. His goal kicking turned to absolute crap last year and even cost the team a few games. He needs to get that turned around for West Coast to be anywhere near the 8. They also still lack any form of a crumbing forward since LeCras and Hill would rather try and beat their opponent in the air or on the lead and are not front and center crumbing forwards.

And no. We had injuries all season. We choked at times but provided we had key players fit, they're games we would have won.

And they still choked games early in the season they were expected to win against Carlton and Port to name a couple.

Waters and Butler are actually pretty damn good small defenders and dont be shocked to see Yeo on a wing next season ;) And much of the same through the midfield? Oh, you mean another pre-season into guys like Wellingham, Masten, Scooter, Hutchings, Gaffy and Shuey... Ahh ok.

Waters always looks better when he is floating around intercepting marks off the opposition and not playing on a small crumbing forward. Also Walters, Dahlhaus, Motlop, Robbie Gray (the Port comeback game), Yarran and Garlett all gave the Eagles massive amounts of trouble when they played. Teams were able to exploit that weakness and beat them running back to goal. Carlton did that perfectly when they played the Eagles up in Perth, they didn't have a small defender that had the leg speed to run with these guys.

Embers and Selwood were both extremely questionable picks in our best team prior to round 1 this season. The fact we were smashed by injuries meant we had to play them and when they themselves got injured we had to play guys like Carter and Wilson. In other words, the depth of the depth.

You might not have thought they were in the best 22 prior to round 1 last year, but they were pretty important players the couple years prior in helping the Eagles get up the ladder. They needed to be replaced by the young guys in the team last season to say in the 8, some of them couldn't due to injury (Shuey/Waters would be the obvious one here), others couldn't because they were not physically capable yet (Gaff). Which brings me to

Ahh Gaffy, also known as 'The Easy Target'. Might remind you blokes that the kid is 20/21 and suddenly expected to be breaking tags? Please. And Shuey is in a similar boat. Older but very injury prone so in footy terms he's pretty similar. It'll come with time, not many third year players can smash tags though.

These two guys are going to be critical to any success the Eagles have. If they aren't fit and firing West Coast are going to struggle to win games consistently and make the 8. You say that Gaff is an 'easy target' since he is so young and expected to break a tag. Of course it is going to be difficult to break a tag at his age, but other then Shuey and maybe Masten to an extent, West Coast lack the X-Factor in the middle that Gaff is. Selwood and Priddis are both accumulators, Wellingham is a seagull that needs the players around him to draw attention and the ball to play well and Hutchings is a bit of a hard nut who has a good cross between the inside and outside game. That is also why Nic Nat is also important, especially with an ageing Cox since he provides the X-factor. You yourself said it, he is 20/21, he isn't going to be breaking a tag yet, but West Coast are going to be a middle of the pack team until both Shuey and Gaff can start playing consistent great football and breaking the shackles. So even with getting Hurn and Waters back to sure up the half back line, it will still come down to how these two young guys can lift their games and learn to cope with the attention they are going to see week in week out.

Oh and dont worry mate, I dont care too much where anyone rates us. Just thought it was extremely interesting to see us so low down the ladder when we have such a plethora of quality coming back in off extended pre-seasons. What gets under my paintwork through is when people judge last season without placing the appropriate amount of emphasis on our enormous injury toll.

I think this shows exactly how good a side Sydney are. Even with all the injuries they managed to finish top 4. But looking at last seasons ladder, West Coast finished 13th. You can play part of that on injuries and part of that on performance. Even with the players returning from injury, the only three teams I can see above them, barring injuries that are worse or equal to them are Adelaide, Brisbane and Carlton. I also think Gold Coast if they can get a good run with injuries are good enough to push for the 8 this year. Let's say West Coast jump 3 of those sides, but Gold Coast jumps WC then they are still sitting around 11th. The difference from 12th to 8th last season was 1 game and percentage.

[Mat0369]

Haha I wouldn't go that far but anyone who has us in the bottom 4 again is deluded.

Agreed. They will cause a few upsets next year much like Gold Coat did this season knocking off North and Collingwood. You would think they are maybe a year off where Gold Coast are but a bit ahead of GWS.

[Vinny]

Answer my PM Matt, when ya get the time :)

[Mat0369]

I wouldn't say GC are ahead of us. Sure, they beat us this year but we both won 8 games for the season. The addition of 2X 30 goal a season players (Crameri, Higgins) tips things back in our favour i'd say.

If we had have won the close games against GC, Melb and Brisbane it would have taken us to 11 wins for the year. We're not that far off being a team capable of pushing for the 8.

I would still put GC ahead of the Dogs, just because I think GC struggled at the back end of the season moving the ball into the forward line. A lot of this had to do with Dixon and Lynch both being injured and lacking any form of a marking option in the forward line. They may have also worn themselves down a little in the end, but I would still put them ahead of the Dogs with a fit Lynch/Dixon in their forward line. Bock is probably done, but if he can string a few games together, he and Brown can provide another marking option, you then have Matera/Hall/Bennell/Ablett rotating through the forward line as crumbing options, the big guys down forward then allows Smith/Nicholls to ruck and they also can bring in Jack Martin who was by reports having a better year in the NEAFL then O'Meara did the previous season. They also have Lonergan who got injured and missed the entire season after showing a bit in the last game he played. He should add some extra depth in the guts.

It's not a massive gap, but I think with the quality of talent that GC have been able to assemble with the draft picks they were given, they should be ahead of the Bulldogs in terms of development at this stage. A good draft for the Dogs and a poor one for the Suns could see the gap closed or even swing the other way. Then it will come down to injuries more then anything.


I just read that back and realised I typed the same thing pretty much 3 times in a row. F it I am tired, you can probably make out what I am trying to write.

[GoLions]

Mat, can I just say, this whole eagles thing at first was just LF saying that west coast wouldnt have made the 8 even if nicnat was fit and firing, in response to what KB said:

But if Nic Nat is in form and stays fit they are a top 6 side

I don't think her and ele ever said the Eagles would've made the 8, just that how they did this season wasn't a good reflection of where they're at.

Or that's how I've interpreted it anyway.

The difference from 12th to 8th last season was 1 game and percentage.

Also, right here you're saying that they're a chance at finishing top 8. Because without injuries, they would've finished a bit higher, and therefore right with all these other teams in this position on the ladder.

[elephants]

"Kerr just retired" ... Ummm so? He took the #1 tag, shielding our young players like Gaffy and Shuey from it. He's a class player and would still be in if it weren't for his aging body.

So Kerr is retired, meaning who is getting the tag? Gaff and Shuey......

Very good! I am talking about 2013 though, he wasn't there which saw Gaff/Shuey struggle. The way you said it, it seemed as though you were down-playing the significance of Kerr... There is no doubt in my mind we were unprepared for the attention Gaff and Shuey copped this season. We would have expected Priddis to cop more attention than he did and would have thought Kerry woul be out there longer than he was. Most teams allowed Masto and Scooter to roam which was also interesting. I have zero doubt in my mind those two will be spending a solid chunk of pre-season with Simmo and Pyke working on ways to smash taggers.

Waters doesn't need to play every game, but more than 6 would be preferable. Plus this point is irrelevant, he's easily a best 22 player and was injured last season, hence we suffered.

He might be in your best 22 but he still has to get on the park. Carlton have had the same problem with Waite. They have had a heavy reliance on these injury prone players to perform, but if you keep relying on these guys you end up disappointed every season.

Ahh, but he is due a double figure season this season ;) And I don't think our reliance lies solely on him (never said it did). It was just that losing him and Hurn at the same time saw us struggle for run and penetration out of the back-half.

Lecca injury prone? Missed games this season with two freak injuries (broken arm and broken ribs) and obviously did his ACL in 2012 but before that he played 61 of a possible 66 games!? Seems pretty durable to me!

He has missed a large amount of games the last two seasons, but injury prone or not, his strength before he did his ACL was in his goal kicking. His goal kicking turned to absolute crap last year and even cost the team a few games. He needs to get that turned around for West Coast to be anywhere near the 8. They also still lack any form of a crumbing forward since LeCras and Hill would rather try and beat their opponent in the air or on the lead and are not front and center crumbing forwards.

It has been made public and has been for some time that Lecca kind of rushed himself back after 4 or so weeks from his broken arm. He was experiencing soreness and had to wear an arm-guard all season. I am going to take a stab and say the two things were related and that he will be fine again next season.

And no. We had injuries all season. We choked at times but provided we had key players fit, they're games we would have won.

And they still choked games early in the season they were expected to win against Carlton and Port to name a couple.

For the Port Adelaide game we were without: Nic Naitanui, Sharrod Wellingham, Matt Rosa, Kerr went in underdone and Priddis played about 30 seconds before being KO'd.

For the Carlton game we were without: Nic Naitanui, Sharrod Wellingham, Matt Rosa and Beau Waters.

I know it looks like I am making excuses but there were reasons behind us choking in those two games over that two week period.

Waters and Butler are actually pretty damn good small defenders and dont be shocked to see Yeo on a wing next season ;) And much of the same through the midfield? Oh, you mean another pre-season into guys like Wellingham, Masten, Scooter, Hutchings, Gaffy and Shuey... Ahh ok.

Waters always looks better when he is floating around intercepting marks off the opposition and not playing on a small crumbing forward. Also Walters, Dahlhaus, Motlop, Robbie Gray (the Port comeback game), Yarran and Garlett all gave the Eagles massive amounts of trouble when they played. Teams were able to exploit that weakness and beat them running back to goal. Carlton did that perfectly when they played the Eagles up in Perth, they didn't have a small defender that had the leg speed to run with these guys.

Sure, but he's more than serviceable as a small defender. The problem is more not having the pace in the back-half than not having the quality one on one opponents. Our small defenders are good, but not quick. Could be the thinking behind recruiting Yeo but rumours are he'll be on a wing so interested to see how that pans out.

Embers and Selwood were both extremely questionable picks in our best team prior to round 1 this season. The fact we were smashed by injuries meant we had to play them and when they themselves got injured we had to play guys like Carter and Wilson. In other words, the depth of the depth.

You might not have thought they were in the best 22 prior to round 1 last year, but they were pretty important players the couple years prior in helping the Eagles get up the ladder. They needed to be replaced by the young guys in the team last season to say in the 8, some of them couldn't due to injury (Shuey/Waters would be the obvious one here), others couldn't because they were not physically capable yet (Gaff). Which brings me to

My point this whole time has been, you can't under-estimate the significance of our injuries last season. Thus, we can't do anything about Shuey/Waters not stepping up. I dont think any Eagles supporter in their right mind expected Gaffy to walk straight in and replace Norm Smith medallist Embers. Difference between them is 10 years, for a successful transition the gap should be more like 5-7 years. Will just take a little extra time.

Ahh Gaffy, also known as 'The Easy Target'. Might remind you blokes that the kid is 20/21 and suddenly expected to be breaking tags? Please. And Shuey is in a similar boat. Older but very injury prone so in footy terms he's pretty similar. It'll come with time, not many third year players can smash tags though.

These two guys are going to be critical to any success the Eagles have. If they aren't fit and firing West Coast are going to struggle to win games consistently and make the 8. You say that Gaff is an 'easy target' since he is so young and expected to break a tag. Of course it is going to be difficult to break a tag at his age, but other then Shuey and maybe Masten to an extent, West Coast lack the X-Factor in the middle that Gaff is. Selwood and Priddis are both accumulators, Wellingham is a seagull that needs the players around him to draw attention and the ball to play well and Hutchings is a bit of a hard nut who has a good cross between the inside and outside game. That is also why Nic Nat is also important, especially with an ageing Cox since he provides the X-factor. You yourself said it, he is 20/21, he isn't going to be breaking a tag yet, but West Coast are going to be a middle of the pack team until both Shuey and Gaff can start playing consistent great football and breaking the shackles. So even with getting Hurn and Waters back to sure up the half back line, it will still come down to how these two young guys can lift their games and learn to cope with the attention they are going to see week in week out.

I cant disagree with you when it comes to the importance of Gaffy/Shuey, sure. But once again, INJURIES. Gaff would have had a million times better season if our midfield group kept relatively fit. Shuey obviously struggled to stay out on the park. These guys are keen to the success we will have over the coming years. You cannot judge them based on a torrid 2013.

Oh and dont worry mate, I dont care too much where anyone rates us. Just thought it was extremely interesting to see us so low down the ladder when we have such a plethora of quality coming back in off extended pre-seasons. What gets under my paintwork through is when people judge last season without placing the appropriate amount of emphasis on our enormous injury toll.

I think this shows exactly how good a side Sydney are. Even with all the injuries they managed to finish top 4. But looking at last seasons ladder, West Coast finished 13th. You can play part of that on injuries and part of that on performance. Even with the players returning from injury, the only three teams I can see above them, barring injuries that are worse or equal to them are Adelaide, Brisbane and Carlton. I also think Gold Coast if they can get a good run with injuries are good enough to push for the 8 this year. Let's say West Coast jump 3 of those sides, but Gold Coast jumps WC then they are still sitting around 11th. The difference from 12th to 8th last season was 1 game and percentage.

Haha, West Coast's injury list was substantially more significant than Sydney's, let me assure you.





This really is the definition of a pointless argument though haha. We have completely different views on WCE. I am biased in favour of WCE and you are bias against us (probably because you're pissed that Mick the dick is now your coach haha). I'm not convincing you and you're definitely not convincing me soooo :P

[Mat0369]

Mat, can I just say, this whole eagles thing at first was just LF saying that west coast wouldnt have made the 8 even if nicnat was fit and firing, in response to what KB said:

Also, right here you're saying that they're a chance at finishing top 8. Because without injuries, they would've finished a bit higher, and therefore right with all these other teams in this position on the ladder.

The point I am trying to make is that with a lot of the guys that elephants listed that will or would have made a difference were either in decline (Kerr), out of form (LeCras/Schofield) or their effect was generally nullified when they did play (Shuey). Not much has changed with the list and to think that their top end vets are getting older in Cox and Glass means they need to get more out of their top end kids in Shuey and Gaff to even sniff the 8. Nic Nat has the ability to turn a game on it's head, but until those 2 guys lift West Coast will be a middle of the pack team and that is where a lot of people are rating them

F it, it's November, wait until someone like Roughy does a knee and Hawthorn miss finals

[Vinny]

Answer my PM Matt, when ya get the time :)

:P

[Mat0369]

Just to put it out there, I thought the Eagles were a good chance for top 4 last season and pushing for the flag. The more I watched them play (which was a lot) the more I could only shake my head in disbelief. From what I saw last year I just can't see an automatic turnaround with a few of the teams around them getting better. Then again they managed to do it a couple seasons back, Port did it last year, so who knows. But it is not a hatred of the Eagles, I actually enjoyed watching them play the last few years as much as it hurts to see JJ starring for them

Answer my PM Matt, when ya get the time :)

:P

I am getting to it.

[elephants]

Then again they managed to do it a couple seasons back so who knows.

Basically this ^



Another pre-season into Darling, Nic Nat, Welly, Hutchy, Scooter, Masto, Gaffy, Mackenzie and a full one into Waters, Hurn and Lecca...

All I am saying is don't be shocked when we destroy last seasons performance 8)

[Vinny]

Haha all good mate, I see you are tired :P

[Mr.Craig]

I collated together all the ladder predictions in this thread so far and came out with the following order...

1. Fremantle
2. Hawthorn
3. Sydney
4. Geelong
5. Richmond
6. North Melbourne
7. Essendon
8. Collingwood
9. Port Adelaide
10. Carlton
11. West Coast
12. Gold Coast
13. Adelaide
14. Western Bulldogs
15. Brisbane
16. Melbourne
17. GWS/St Kilda (tied on points)