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Riddles

Started by GoLions, October 29, 2013, 09:39:47 PM

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CrowsFan

Well you got one thing correct. I would be the fastest :)

Ziplock

Quote from: CrowsFan on November 03, 2013, 01:23:14 AM
Yeah but to stay alive he needs to be able to have a second shot

even if he gets a second shot he still has  the same chance of dying.

GoLions

Quote from: Ziplock on November 03, 2013, 08:55:58 PM
Quote from: CrowsFan on November 03, 2013, 01:23:14 AM
Yeah but to stay alive he needs to be able to have a second shot

even if he gets a second shot he still has  the same chance of dying.
It's all about what gives you the best chance of surviving. If you miss your first shot, it means that you can't be killed until you have had a 2nd shot.
If you hit your first shot, then you might not even get a 2nd shot. That extra shot you get to take could be the difference between living and dying.

Fantasygun

Yeah, now I think about it, that sounds right.
Do you have any riddles similar to the fish owner one?

GoLions

Quote from: Fantasygun on November 03, 2013, 09:31:04 PM
Yeah, now I think about it, that sounds right.
Do you have any riddles similar to the fish owner one?
If I spent enough time looking for some, I probably would. BUT I have exams coming up, so won't really be looking stuff up until late at night. If you guys know of (or find) any riddles that you think are really good, either post them here, or PM me  :)

Fantasygun

Ok, yeah I've been looking for some aswell.

Ziplock

Quote from: GoLions16 on November 03, 2013, 09:29:25 PM
Quote from: Ziplock on November 03, 2013, 08:55:58 PM
Quote from: CrowsFan on November 03, 2013, 01:23:14 AM
Yeah but to stay alive he needs to be able to have a second shot

even if he gets a second shot he still has  the same chance of dying.
It's all about what gives you the best chance of surviving. If you miss your first shot, it means that you can't be killed until you have had a 2nd shot.
If you hit your first shot, then you might not even get a 2nd shot. That extra shot you get to take could be the difference between living and dying.

the question has nothing to do with a 2nd shot, it's to do with either dying or not.

once again, I'll try to do it with basic maths, if someone sees an error in what I do, please tell me, I'll try to do it properly this time since  I cbf last night :P

So, we're operating under the assumption that chris will shoot barry and that barry will shoot chris because of their respective probabilities of killing someone.

So in the event that you don't shoot anyone, there's a 2/3 chance that barry will kill chris, and a 1/3 chance that chris will not die and he'll kill barry.

If barry kills chris, then there's a 1/3 chance you'll kill barry, and a 2/3 chance that barry will kill you. That means that there's a 2/3*2/3 chance that barry will both kill chris, and you'll die, which =  44.4444(recurring)%.

the other scenario is the 1/3 chance barry misses, in which case chris has a 1/1 chance of killing barry, then you have a 1/3 chance of killing chris, which means that there's a 2/3 chance chris will kill you. So the probability of chris killing barry then you= 1/3*2/3= 22.22222 (recurring)%

the the probability of you dying if you don't kill anyone is 44.44444%+22.22222%= 66.666666(recurring) %= 2/3

if you shoot chris and you miss, nothing changes from the above scenario.

if you shoot chris and you kill him, then barry shoots, and barry has a 2/3 chance of killing you.

eitherway, the chance of you dying remains the same, the only way you can flower up is to kill barry.





did I flower up with that? because it looks right to me. And if I'm right, then you're all wrong and there are two answers, since the question specifically stipulates the best chance of staying alive (aka, the worst chance of dying).

GoLions

Quote from: Ziplock on November 03, 2013, 09:46:55 PM
If barry kills chris, then there's a 1/3 chance you'll kill barry, and a 2/3 chance that barry will kill you. That means that there's a 2/3*2/3 chance that barry will both kill chris, and you'll die, which =  44.4444(recurring)%.

the other scenario is the 1/3 chance barry misses, in which case chris has a 1/1 chance of killing barry, then you have a 1/3 chance of killing chris, which means that there's a 2/3 chance chris will kill you. So the probability of chris killing barry then you= 1/3*2/3= 22.22222 (recurring)%

the the probability of you dying if you don't kill anyone is 44.44444%+22.22222%= 66.666666(recurring) %= 2/3

if you shoot chris and you miss, nothing changes from the above scenario.

if you shoot chris and you kill him, then barry shoots, and barry has a 2/3 chance of killing you.

eitherway, the chance of you dying remains the same, the only way you can flower up is to kill barry.
Assuming you miss your first shot on purpose

Chance of Barry killing Chris and yourself would be:
(2/3)*(2/3)*(2/3) = (6/27) = (2/9)
Or that's what I thought, as Barry also has to rely on you missing him (2/3).

Which means the chance of you dying would be 0.444 recurring, yeah?

Whereas, if you kill Chris, chance of dying is (2/3)


Is that right? It makes sense to me.

Ziplock

no, you have to add on the 22.22222% (recurring), in the scenario that barry shoots chris and misses and chris shoots him and kills him



Ziplock

Quote from: Ziplock on November 03, 2013, 09:46:55 PM
Quote from: GoLions16 on November 03, 2013, 09:29:25 PM
Quote from: Ziplock on November 03, 2013, 08:55:58 PM
Quote from: CrowsFan on November 03, 2013, 01:23:14 AM
Yeah but to stay alive he needs to be able to have a second shot

even if he gets a second shot he still has  the same chance of dying.
It's all about what gives you the best chance of surviving. If you miss your first shot, it means that you can't be killed until you have had a 2nd shot.
If you hit your first shot, then you might not even get a 2nd shot. That extra shot you get to take could be the difference between living and dying.

the question has nothing to do with a 2nd shot, it's to do with either dying or not.

once again, I'll try to do it with basic maths, if someone sees an error in what I do, please tell me, I'll try to do it properly this time since  I cbf last night :P

So, we're operating under the assumption that chris will shoot barry and that barry will shoot chris because of their respective probabilities of killing someone.

Scenario 1: don't shoot anyone
So in the event that you don't shoot anyone, there's a 2/3 chance that barry will kill chris, and a 1/3 chance that chris will not die and he'll kill barry.

If barry kills chris, then there's a 1/3 chance you'll kill barry, and a 2/3 chance that barry will kill you. That means that there's a 2/3*2/3 chance that barry will both kill chris, and you'll die, which =  44.4444(recurring)%.

the other scenario is the 1/3 chance barry misses, in which case chris has a 1/1 chance of killing barry, then you have a 1/3 chance of killing chris, which means that there's a 2/3 chance chris will kill you. So the probability of chris killing barry then you= 1/3*2/3= 22.22222 (recurring)%

the the probability of you dying if you don't kill anyone is 44.44444%+22.22222%= 66.666666(recurring) %= 2/3

Scenario 2: shoot chris
if you shoot chris and you miss, nothing changes from the above scenario.

if you shoot chris and you kill him, then barry shoots, and barry has a 2/3 chance of killing you.

eitherway, the chance of you dying remains the same, the only way you can flower up is to kill barry.


that should be clearer

GoLions

Quote from: Ziplock on November 03, 2013, 10:00:20 PM
no, you have to add on the 22.22222% (recurring), in the scenario that barry shoots chris and misses and chris shoots him and kills him
(2/9) + (2/9) = (4/9) = 0.444 recurring...

The chance of Barry killing both you and Chris should be (2/9), shouldn't it?

GoLions

Wait, I think I mathed wrong somewhere...hang on

GoLions

Quote from: GoLions16 on November 03, 2013, 09:57:06 PM
Assuming you miss your first shot on purpose

Chance of Barry killing Chris and yourself would be:
(2/3)*(2/3)*(2/3) = (6/27) = (2/9)
Or that's what I thought, as Barry also has to rely on you missing him (2/3).
Should be (8/27) there, not (6/27)

(8/27) + (2/9) = (8/27) + (6/27) = (14/27), which is just over 0.5


CrowsFan

What does this message say?

S Y A R O Y R O R O E N R U W G

Nige

Quote from: CrowsFan on November 03, 2013, 10:25:02 PM
What does this message say?

S Y A R O Y R O R O E N R U W G

Sorry you are wrong.