LaHug's Captains - Round 23 - Grand Finals!

[LaHug]

I happily do this every week, free of charge. However, if you are feeling generous and would like to thank me, please make a donation to my Cancer Research and Awareness Pledge: http://www.everydayhero.com.au/william_huggett

The last week for the year. 23 rounds of hard work and I'm pooped! Very much looking forward to a break but, before we get there...

I'm back again for the third straight year of well researched captains advice!!!
For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. And remember, if you have any requests, just ask!

The facts:

J. Selwood
Last 3: 110, 135, 157 (134 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 121, 69, 70 (87 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 110, 157, 136 (134 avg)

Johnson
Last 3: 132, 143, 109 (128 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 129, 81, 74 (95 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 132, 109, 109 (117 avg)

Rockliff
Last 3: 139, 95, 115 (116 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 77, 128, 117 (107 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 87 (87 avg)

Watson
Last 3: 104, 121, 120 (115 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 122, 76, 134 (111 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 104, 113, 77 (98 avg)

S. Selwood
Last 3: 101, 112, 105 (106 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 82, 114, 89 (95 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 112, 98, 135 (115 avg)

Ablett
Last 3: 71, 82, 64 (72 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 131, 99, 106 (112 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 64, 114, 163 (114 avg)

Swan
Last 3: 122, 131, 94 (116 avg)
Last 3 against North: 123, 148, 162 (144 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 122, 131, 115 (123 avg)

Pendlebury
Last 3: 129, 96, 117 (114 avg)
Last 3 against North: 124, 97, 107 (109 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 129, 96, 111 (112 avg)

Beams
Last 3: 91, 108, 117 (105 avg)
Last 3 against North: 129, 116, 86 (110 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 91, 117, 130 (113 avg)

Sidebottom/u]
Last 3: 105, 89, 107 (100 avg)
Last 3 against North: 106, 122, 106 (111 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 105, 89, 126 (107 avg)

Griffen
Last 3: 77, 90, 121 (96 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 136, 66, 115 (106 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 90, 121, 133 (115 avg)

Boyd
Last 3: 93, 81, 112 (95 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 90, 84, 93 (89 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 81, 112, 152 (115 avg)

Liberatore
Last 3: 89, 95, 92 (92 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 144 (144 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 95, 92, 123 (103 avg)

The thoughts:

J. Selwood
Ridiculous form continues for Jelwood with a lot of his dominance at home. The last time he did poorly was because of a hard tag from an old rival, Crowley. This week, Jelwood will get Raines, the only other player in the AFL capable of stopping him in his current form. In the unlikely case that Raines isn't named, I'll be making Joel my captain (121 at the Gabba earlier this year without Raines and in much better form right now). However, with Raines, you can't back him even in this form. Prediction - 110

Johnson
If you haven't noticed yet, Stevie J is averaging OVER 120 for the year. He won't get tagged and he should rack it up again this week. Prediction - 130

Rockliff
Back in the mids, Rocky is killing it! In his last 7, he's scored over 115 five times! He played mostly forward earlier in the year for a 77 against the Cats but had a 128 and 117 in 2012 and 2011 (albeit at the Gabba). Should be good again. Prediction - 115

Watson
It's hard to know what kind of performance Essendon will give on the weekend, considering they can't play finals, but you can bet that Jobe will still give 110%. Against the Tigers, he's had some good scores, with that 76 coming in Essendon's massive drop off last season. This year, while Essendon have fallen, Jobe's still scored big. Expect something good. Prediction - 115

S. Selwood
Scooter has given it his all while the Eagles have fizzled and you can expect one last huge effort as West Coast push for an exceptionally unlikely finals berth. Unfortunately, there's not a huge lot going for him this week outside of his decent form. Prediction - 100

Ablett
Ablett's last 4: 71, 82, 64, 89. He's tired and the tags are wearing him down. GWS tag very hard. Things are not looking good for GAJ. You'd be a braver man than I to trade him out or bench him, but I don't like him again this week. Prediction - 90

Swan
The obvious choice this week. Swanny's got solid form against his name, 7 straight tons at the G, and a ridiculous last 5 of 123, 148, 162, 123, 117 against the Roos. Prediction - 135

Pendlebury
Pendles should also be good this week and has a 141 against the Roos preceding those last three. In some hand form to finish the season. Prediction - 110

Beams
Beamer was clearly rested last week so should be ready to go bang against the Roos. Very solid against them in the last two years. Prediction - 120

Sidebottom
My first thought when Beams was out was "that'll hurt Sidey owners" yet he managed a 105 without his favourite teammate. Three straight tons against North has to be handy for him which, coupled with his recent form, means he could do well. Prediction - 110

Griffen
Griff is still struggling to beat tags and, against Melbourne this week, he'll get another one. Basically, the difference between the Nicholson tag he had last time and the McKenzie tag he'll get this time is the difference between his 136 earlier and his 66 last year. Unless McKenzie's out, Griff's in trouble. Prediction - 85

Boyd
I only put Boyd in here because I knew one of you spoons would request him otherwise. Basically, he sucks against Melbourne. Second worst team by career averages, 4 straight scores UNDER 100 against them and only 4 career tons from 16 attempts. Don't do it. Prediction - 90

Liberatore
This is the Bulldog you take a gamble on if you must take a risk. Only played the Dees once for a massive 144. Super inconsistent this year (still young, obviously) so it's a massive gamble but, if you want some fun on the weekend, you may as well bring him in. Prediction - anywhere from 80-150

The verdict:

1. Swan (135)
2. Johnson (130)
3. Beams (120)
4. Rockliff (115)
5. J. Selwood (115)
Super dooper fun gamble: Liberatore (80-150)

Requests:

Montagna - Requested by luvfooty
Last 3: 123, 100, 111 (111 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 117, 86, 80 (94 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 123, 111, 140 (125 avg)

Six straight tons is pretty solid and Joey's been good all year! His current form means he should do well. My concern is his form against the Dockers which has led to only 3 tons from 14 attempts. Before this year, he had 5 straight scores against them under 100. Plus, his current form might lead to him facing Crowley (although NDS is still likely to cop it). I think he should be good against a depleted Freo outfit but I wouldn't risk it. Prediction - 110

Jack - Requested by luvfooty
Last 3: 87, 82, 57 (75 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 106, 93, 80 (93 avg)
Last 3 at ANZ: 57, 107, 99 (88 avg)

Jack's current form is awful so he'll need something to jump out at you to be worth considering. A career high of 106 against the Hawks (that was this year) and just the 57 and 107 from two games at ANZ are not nearly enough to overcome the form. Prediction - 80

Mitchell - Requested by luvfooty
Last 3: 97, 80, 77 (85 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 104, 79, 51 (78 avg)
Last 3 at ANZ: 41 (41 avg)

Mitchell's form is as poor as Jack's and he only has a career high of 107 against the Swans, but he's generally awful against them. Just the one game at ANZ way back in '09 tells us nothing. Prediction - 75

Cotchin - Requested by luvfooty
Last 3: 52, 51, 105 (69 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 99, 145, 143 (129 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 51, 105, 137 (98 avg)

Cotchin's last two weeks have been a subbing for resting purposes and getting tagged out of the game against Carlton. Against the Bombers, he was huge last year and was only really poor this year because he was in a form slump/injured. However, teams have started tagging him and it's been slowing him down so there's every chance that he'll cop the Hocking tag. No Hocking though lowers his tag chances and, even if he gets tagged, it'll be by a lesser opponent. Cotch should be fine this week. Prediction - 110

Riewoldt - Requested by Adamant
Last 3: 152, 104, 104 (120 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 75, 91, 65 (77 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 152, 104, 118 (125 avg)

Riewoldt is in great form but is very poor against the Dockers. For this reason, I was never going to consider him, until Freo released their team for the weekend. Zac Dawson out is the icing on the cake with an already depleted Freo backline becoming ridiculously thin. You'd think that Roo will kick a bag and rack it up. Prediction - 115

Masten - Requested by Ricochet
Last 3: 111, 120, 22 (84 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 112, 56, 115 (94 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 134, 91, 100 (108 avg)

Aside from that injury and sub-affected 22, Masten's been flying since the bye but most haven't noticed. He's not the best mid, by any stretch, but he's been serviceable. Against the Crows this year, he scored a handy 112 and he's also had a 115 against them in 2011. He has form and looks the goods. Prediction - 110

Barlow - Requested by SuperCyp
Last 3: 77, 116, 106 (100 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 111, 109, 110 (110 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 106, 91, 85 (94 avg)

Mr. Consistent went missing last week (as did many stars) but comes up against the Saints who he has been very good against. Those three scores plus a 118 make up his last 4 against them, basically meaning he should be a certain 110. However, all the outs for Fremantle mean that Barlow looks like his team's most damaging midfielding this week. I would be VERY wary that he may attract the CJT which is more than likely to slow him down. Prediction - 110 (if not tagged, otherwise more like 90)

[LF]

Cheers LaHug
Montagna
Jack
S.Mitchell
Cotchin
Watson
please :)

[LaHug]

Cheers LaHug
Montagna
Jack
S.Mitchell
Cotchin
Watson
please :)

Already had a look at Watson but I'll look at the rest of them for ya tomorrow. I know how important this week is for you so I'll do my best to help :)

[LF]

Cheers LaHug
Montagna
Jack
S.Mitchell
Cotchin
Watson
please :)

Already had a look at Watson but I'll look at the rest of them for ya tomorrow. I know how important this week is for you so I'll do my best to help :)

Thanks heaps LaHug
And I went though the list twice and still missed Watson ::)

[stew42]

Out of Elxam, had a crap week last week. Libba, come in and make this DTer proud!

[Adamant]

Cheers LH, reckon I'll be going Jelwood!

Can I request Nick Riewoldt and Sam Mitchell please mate? #AXVsGF

[nrich102]

Jelwood will get the Raines tag.

[dtfreak]

can i please request fyfe please? great work throughout the year, thanks mate you helped me a lot this season!

[essendon2]

Why you never do Montagna? :o


Would you suggest me going: Cotchin --> Beams & Ablett --> Libba

or

go: Shaw --> O'Brien/Butler/Houli and one of the above?

[Ricochet]

Can you look at Masten please mate. Not as a captain choice but whether i should get him in lol

[MinistryOfFootball]

Thanks LaHug for doing this throughout the season once again! :)

[PK]

Thanks heaps LH for all your weekly advice over the season, It's much appreciated.  :)

Gotta be Swan for me, Can't afford to take any risks.

Also Good Luck to everyone playing Grand Finals  :)

[LaHug]

My day has been ridiculously busy so I'll have to do all these requests in the morning tomorrow (going out for the night :D).
Sorry all. I'll make sure you have them in good time though!!!

[LF]

My day has been ridiculously busy so I'll have to do all these requests in the morning tomorrow (going out for the night :D).
Sorry all. I'll make sure you have them in good time though!!!

No problems :)
Need the team announcements first anyway.

[Blueboys]

Hmmm ok so you would pick J. Selwood over Swan, Stevie J and Gazza ? (thinking you have them all lol)

My opp will go GAJ who I also have but I am thinking J Selwood in the GF?

Or should I go Swan or Stevie J ??? (my oppn doesn't have any of these guys  ;D)

So confused.  :P