LaHug's Captains - Round 22 - DT Prelims!

[LaHug]

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Swanny went boom while his Pies team mates fizzled, GAJ stayed quiet, and the cats pair of Jelwood and Stevie showed that history means nothing when you're in form. Two weeks remain so read on for your weekly captains goodness.

I'm back again for the third straight year of well researched captains advice!!!
For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. And remember, if you have any requests, just ask!

The facts:

Swan
Last 3: 131, 94, 115 (113 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 128, 119, 132 (126 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 131, 115, 163 (136 avg)

Pendlebury
Last 3: 96, 117, 111 (108 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 119, 129, 138 (129 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 96, 111, 74 (94 avg)

Beams
Last 3: 91, 108, 117 (105 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 117, 129, 117 (121 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 91, 117, 130 (113 avg)

Sidebottom
Last 3: 89, 107, 126 (107 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 101, 96, 81 (93 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 89, 126, 143 (119 avg)

S. Selwood
Last 3: 112, 105, 98 (105 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 67, 74, 60 (67 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 142, 117, 60 (106 avg)

J. Selwood
Last 3: 135, 157, 98 (130 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 123, 101, 103 (109 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 157, 136, 126 (140 avg)

Johnson
Last 3: 143, 109, 112 (121 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 107, 99, 86 (97 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 109, 109, 156 (125 avg)

Watson
Last 3: 121, 120, 113 (118 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 77, 98, 100 (92 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 113, 77, 122 (104 avg)

Ablett
Last 3: 82, 64, 89 (78 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 135, 61, 143 (113 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 136, 143, 81 (120 avg)

Rockliff
Last 3: 95, 115, 144 (118 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 114, 43, 141 (99 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 95, 144, 134 (124 avg)

Griffen
Last 3: 90, 121, 133 (115 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 126, 76, 91 (98 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 76, 97, 74 (82 avg)

The thoughts:

Swan
Swanny was big last week while many others fell. His form is near certain to continue as he comes up against his second favourite non-expansion team at a ground he's been on absolute fire on! Here are his last 9 against the Eagles: 128, 119, 132, 144, 89, 161, 158, 133, 158 (136 avg). Here are his last 6 at the MCG: 131, 115, 163, 106, 163, 130 (135 avg). That is beyond insane! Prediction - 135

Pendlebury
Pendles was disappointing last week but his form against the Eagles is great. Recent form isn't amazing, nor is his MCG form. If the Pies dominate (like they should), he will probably go big. Prediction - 120

Beams
Beamer was also disappointing last week but, like his Pies brethren, has form against the Eagles that is hard to ignore. Expect him to be right up there with Swan and Pendles. Prediction - 115

Sidebottom
Steele was the lowest scoring of the disappointing trio and, unlike the others, doesn't have an awesome record against the Eagles to save him. However, since the return of Beams, Steele's been killing it at the MCG with last week as the only exception. He should still be good but there are better options. Prediction - 105

S. Selwood
Scooter proved his worth last week, scoring a handy 112 while his team collapsed around him. However, he's never scored a ton against the Pies from his 7 attempts, averaging a lowly 70 against them over his career. His 142 against the hapless Dees was his only game at the MCG this year so I don't think he has much form there to look at. Prediction - 95

J. Selwood
Jelwood is in the form of his career! Over his last 10 games, he has scored 135, 157, 98, 136, 133, 126, 128, 38, 121, and 132. That gives him a 10 game average of 120.4! His only major slip up was being tagged out of the game by Crowley, scoring an atrocious 38 (which, if removed, makes his 10 game average more like 130). Joel has scored 4 straight tons against the Swans, 6 in his last 7, and 8 in his last 10. The Swans are giving up some big scores, too, with 125 to Steven last week, 117 to Pendlebury the week before, and 133 to Griffen before that. Plus, Bird hasn't tagged in the past two weeks as Longmire has preferred head-to-head options. Finally, he has a three game average of 140 at home!!! Everything looks great! Prediction - 135

Johnson
Stevie J's not to be overlooked, either, averaging a smidgen under 120 for the entire season. His current form isn't as exciting as Jelwood's, but he did manage his 4th score above 140 for the year last week. He's had two scores above 140 against the Swans in the past, although his history against them is inconsistent. Probably the perfect "I'm going to lose so may as well take a gamble" captain this week. Prediction - 120

Watson
Jobe's form since returning has been great and he's one of the few good things going for Essendon this season. However, his record against Carlton is way too poor for me to consider. He's only have 3 tons in his career of 15 games against them. Prediction - 100

Ablett
Three straight scores under 100 is not what we expect from the little master. However, this form slump could be coming to an end. Outside of last year's 95 point thumping where GAJ didn't try and pulled out a miserable 61, he's had a 135, 143, and 118 against the Saints since joining the Suns. He's only had one game at Etihad this season, a 136, and only had one last year, a 143 against the Saints. Should be good but you can't back him in his current form. Prediction - 110

Rockliff
If you went Rocky last week, you were probably disappointed by his 95, but just remember that you still beat those that chose Ablett or Beams! Rocky's form has been insane since he returned to the midfield and he'll probably stay there again this week. Against the Doggies, he's a bit of a mixed bag with a 114 this year and an interesting split of a dismal 43 and awesome 141 last year. Super risky, as usual, but should be great at the Gabba where he's been tearing it up. Prediction - 115

Griffen
The Griff could've won me an important game last week, had he continued his good form and scored in the mid 120s. Instead, he fizzled for a poor 90. Against the Lions, he scored a handy 126 due to the lack of Raines in round 1 this year. Compare that to last year, with Raines in the side and tagging him, where he only scored 76 and 91. I see no reason for Raines not to tag him again this week, probably causing problems for the Dog. Prediction - 90

The verdict:

Equal 1. Swan (135) & J. Selwood (135)
3. Pendlebury (120)
4. Johnson (120)
5. Beams (115)
Basically, look at your opponent's team and assess. If you think that you should beat them comfortably, pick Swan (because that's what most of the DT world will probably do). If you don't think you will win, pick Selwood. Simple!
Alternatively, just go with your gut. My gut's screaming to pick Joel so I may well do that!

Requests:

[dtfreak]

great write-up la hug. could i please request sam mitchell?

[HBTD22]

Cheers buddy. Could you have a look at Cotch? Thanks.

[LF]

Cheers LaHug
Stantspud,Cox and Smitchell please

[Ricochet]

Gut says GAJ will bounce back, evvvvverything else says lock in Swan

[tbagrocks]

Man my Dayne punt backfired so back too the fat pig it is!

[LF]

Man my Dayne punt backfired so back too the fat pig it is!

Same here Tbag I took a punt on Beams last week lucky everyone else I played had Ablett as captain

[Adamant]

Thanks LaHug. I'll be going Swanny I think.

Can you please have a look at Boyd and Nick Riewoldt? cheers.

[its me lads]

I'll definitely be going with Swanny thanks LH.

Went Unique last week but when I've got Montagna and O'Keefe in midfield as POD's and Grimes or The Cannon playing down back I don't really need a COD.


Or maybe I do since they're spuds.  ;D

[Flame]

Keep calm and lock in the Pig!  ;D

[essendon2]

Montagna and Mundy please mate

[PK]

Lock Swan and relax!  8)

[jamfrank]

Great write up once again, LH. Will definitely be locking Swan, but wondering if you could have a look at Marc Murphy - contemplating fielding him over Watson or cotchin...

[LaHug]

I'll do all requests tomorrow, guys. Should have them all done well before lockout.

[essendon2]

Can i also request Libba please ;)


P.S. Who do you think will be the highest scoring DEF, MID, RUC, and FWD this week?