LaHug's Captains - Round 21 - DT Semis!

[LaHug]

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Last week, GAJ was held to a dismal 64 points while Swan and ROK also failed to reach the ton. With that, who will be the number one this week?!

I'm back again for the third straight year of well researched captains advice!!!
For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. And remember, if you have any requests, just ask!

The facts:

Swan
Last 3: 94, 115, 163 (124 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 109, 106, 165 (127 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 115, 163, 106 (128 avg)

Pendlebury
Last 3: 117, 111, 74 (101 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 111, 109, 142 (121 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 111, 74, 153 (113 avg)

Beams
Last 3: 108, 117, 130 (118 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 111, 147, 12 (90 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 117, 130, 80 (109 avg)

Sidebottom
Last 3: 107, 126, 143 (125 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 49, 97, 98 (81 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 126, 143, 105 (125 avg)

Cotchin
Last 3: 105, 137, 91 (111 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 101, 118, 120 (113 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 105, 137, 144 (129 avg)

Ablett
Last 3: 64, 89, 114 (89 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 118, 106, 83 (102 avg)
Last 3 at AAMI: 110, 156, 83 (116 avg)

Watson
Last 3: 120, 113, 16 (83 avg)
Last 3 against North: 132, 110, 98 (113 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 120, 16, 96 (77 avg)

Rockliff
Last 3: 115, 144, 97 (119 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 125 (125 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 144, 134, 86 (121 avg)

Selwood
Last 3: 157, 98, 136 (130 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 88, 107, 103 (99 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 88, 114, 103 (102 avg)

Johnson
Last 3: 109, 112, 109 (110 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 134, 83, 94 (104 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 134, 68, 94 (99 avg)

Barlow
Last 3: 106, 106, 97 (103 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 149, 108, 80 (112 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 106, 120, 101 (109 avg)

Griffen
Last 3: 121, 133, 106 (120 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 74, 103, 104 (94 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 121, 133, 106 (120 avg)

The thoughts:

Swan
Swan was part of the top 3 let down from last week but looks certain to bounce back against the Hawks. Against them, he has 9 straight tons and 4 of those are 130+. His record at the MCG is well known and speaks for itself. Should be yummy. Prediction - 125

Pendlebury
Pendles was not disappointing last week, deciding to score well like a premium should! He, like Swan, has a great record against the Hawks with 9 of his last 10 being tons (6 straight) and two 130+ last year. His record at the MCG is great too with scores of 153 and 133 just a few weeks ago. Prediction - 120

Beams
Beams has been on fire since returning and his two scores of 111 and 147 against the Hawks last year are huge. Also generally handy at the G. Prediction - 125

Sidebottom
Steele has loved the return of his buddy, Beams, but hasn't scored a ton against the Hawks in his last 7 tries (and he's only had 8 cracks at it in his career). Love his form but will have to pass this week. Prediction - 100

Cotchin
Cotch showed that he can handle the heat of a tag by working over Raines last week. This, coupled with his recently found form, should remove any doubts brought on by the fact that he'll likely draw Cachia or Curnow this week. Griffen smashed Cachia for 121 last week while Cooney scored 94 (above his average) with the Curnow tag which goes to show that these tags aren't anything extreme, particularly with Carlton's poor form. Prediction - 110

Ablett
GAJ has two poor scores in a row. GAJ has an average of just 102 against Port in his last three (i.e. since becoming a Sun). So, this means that you probably shouldn't make him captain. With this in mind, let me take you back to round 8, 2011. GAJ was coming off an 84 from the past week, and an 81 the week before that. He looked proppy, sore, and not likely to be wearing the C in any decent DT team for a long while. He then went over to Adelaide and had a 15 disposal, 3 goal performance for 62 points against the Douglas tag... Did I forget to mention that was all in the first quarter?! He went on to amass 41 disposals, 4 goals, and a huge 156 points. GAJ is the master of bouncing back so don't doubt him. Prediction - 110

Watson
Jobe has bounced back like he never missed a game! His record against North is very solid with 6 tons from his last 8, and 5 110+ (with 4 being 120+) from his last 7. The icing on the cake is that the news is currently that the players are ok and Jobe will keep his Brownlow which *should* take a huge load off his shoulders. Prediction - 115

Rockliff
Tommy Rockliff is averaging 122 in his last 5! His last two at home have been 144 and 134, HUGE! He had a 125 against the Giants last year and it's usually easier to score well on a young team as they tire, particularly if the Lions maul them like the Dockers did last week. Another should-be-plus is that Voss is gone. This means there's a chance that Rocky will get extra midfield time but, even if he doesn't, teams usually play huge in their first games with an interim coach. All of this points to a massive score and, if he weren't such a super risky pick, he'd probably be my number 1. Prediction - 135

Selwood
Speaking of huge 5 round averages, Jelwood's is sitting at a delightful 130! He's been tearing it up but, this week, he comes up against one of three teams that he averages below 90 against. He's been useless against the Eagles with only 2 tons from 7 career attempts and a high score of just 107. Compare this to his two other sub-90 opponents, the Dockers and Saints. Against Freo, Selwood was 5/10 before this year, had three straight tons, but flopped with a 38. Against the Saints, Selwood was 2/8, had three straight sub-100s, but bounced back with a big 136. Who knows which way he'll go this week? Prediction - 110

Johnson
Stevie J has a low of just 109 (twice) in his last 5. He also had a nice 134 against the Eagles last year. However, if you look past that score, it looks very ugly with 5 straight under 100 (and then some good ones before that). The only poor record that's held up this season has been his form against the Blues, with Stevie J breaking any other bad streaks this season. It's very difficult to know what he'll do each week but he should be fine. However, I'm not trusting him. Prediction - 105

Barlow
Another tough one to figure out, Barlow has a high of just 106 (three times) in his last five. Against the Demons, Freo will likely go for one last percentage boost, cementing their spot above the Swans on the ladder, meaning Barlow could do something similar to his performance against them earlier in the year (although I highly doubt he'll have 11 tackles and 7 marks again to inflate his score). However, to the contrary, he only managed 106 while his team destroyed the Giants last week. The Dees give up a lot more than the Giants do but it's still no certainty for a big score. Prediction - 115

Griffen
Griff is yet another premo who's scoring well at the moment. His last three, all at Etihad where he plays again this week, average to a nice 120. Against the Crows, however, his record is not great with only one score above 105 in his last 5 (although 4 of them are tons). Prediction - 105

The verdict:

1. Swan (125)
2. Beams (125)
3. Pendlebury (120)
4. Barlow (115)
5. Watson (115)
Way too risky but awesome POD if you're desperate: Rockliff (135)

Requests:

Montagna - Requested by essendon2
Last 3: 111, 112, 109 (111 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 104, 85, 121 (103 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 85, 129, 40 (85 avg)

Joey's been in fine form over his last 4 (and the season, really) but continues to be underappreciated. Against the Swans, it'll be hard to predict anything big, yet he scored 104 in them at the start of the year and has scored well on them in the past. The worry here is that the SCG is generally a difficult ground for visitors to score on. Tags does have a 129 there back in '09 but that's about it. Prediction - 105

Cox - Requested by jvalles69
Last 3: 107, 141, 102 (117 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 147, 35, 94 (92 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 141, 79, 59 (93 avg)

The big Cox has lifted his game with Nic Nat out and will look to do it again when he faces the Cats. His last three are great, as is his last against Geelong (he's been very up and down against them over his career though). The biggest thing to notice is that, with Geelong's ruck stocks so dwindled, opposition rucks can come in and destroy them. Lobbe had 59 hit outs and 145 points against them last week. Goldstein got 42 hit outs the week before (although hardly touched the ball otherwise). I wouldn't captain him because it's way too risky but there's a very good chance of a huge score. Prediction - 120

Stanton - Requested by luvfooty
Last 3: 100, 73, 89 (87 avg)
Last 3 against North: 153, 107, 77 (112 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 100, 89, 107 (99 avg)

This is it. This is Stanton's last chance. Watson was back last week but Stants only just scraped the ton. Finally, the Bombers controversy has shed some light and the players must have a weight off their shoulders. This, plus Watson back, plus his record against North (5 tons in his last 7, including two massive ones) is enough for Stanton to leave his form slump. Still, three straight under 100 before last week has to be scary and you couldn't back him. Prediction - 100

Mitchell - Requested by luvfooty
Last 3: 77, 112, 111 (100 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 98, 109, 102 (103 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 112, 127, 66 (102 avg)

Sammy Mitchell was poor last week against the Saints and was coming off two good games. Now he faces the Pies in what looks like one of the most important games of the season in shaping the top 4! Apart from a mediocre 98 earlier this year, Mitchell has had 6 straight tons, including a 128, 130, and 137. He can definitely score against the Pies and, if it's the high scoring game I think it'll be, he should. However, his form this year has been very up and down and the chance of a Macaffer tag (although I'm backing H2H with Swan) has to scare you off. Prediction - 105

Dangerfield - Requested by Titalicious
Last 3: 101, 98, 70 (90 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 100, 78, 67 (82 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 121, 100, 142 (121 avg)

The tough task of carrying an entire team seems to have worn down Danger causing injury and a lowered output. It seems that Sloane has picked up a lot of the slack in this half of the season and Danger's DT scoring has been pretty unimpressive as a result. He doesn't have much to show against the Dogs, either. Interestingly, those three games at Etihad (his only games there in the last two seasons) are very impressive but it's hard to take much from three games spread over two years that weren't even against his current opponent. Form means no. Prediction - 90

Ward - Requested by pommyadam
Last 3: 121, 138, 139 (133 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 90, 86, 104 (93 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 90, 55, 18 (54 avg)

If anyone brought Ward in 3 weeks ago, they're a genius. He's in phenomenal over the three (better than anyone else I've reviewed) and is really trying to carry his team! He's only played against the Lions once as a Giant for a 90 and he wasn't tagged (Raines went to Scully). I expect him to get tagged this week which will probably slow his output. In the last three, he's gone H2H with Mundy, tagged by Grimes (hardly counts), H2H with Beams. If he goes H2H with Redden or Rocky, expect a big score! If he's tagged by Raines, expect something small. Prediction - 100 (but 125 if let loose!)

Jack - Requested by RoughRed
Last 3: 57, 140, 128 (108 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 113, 93, 105 (104 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 128, 19, 86 (98 avg)

Jack has been solid this year but last week showed us that he can struggle mightily with a tag! Earlier in the year, the CJT (Clinton Jones Tag for those unaware) went to McVeigh, Jack subsequently scored well with a 113. The time before that, the tag went to Jetta. Whoever gets tagged each week at the Swans seems to be ever changing (probably because they have so many good mids!) so I can hardly predict where the CJT will go. However, if it goes to Jack, expect something poor. I'll guess that it won't (which is really just a guess) but you can't captain him because the risk is too great. Prediction - 110

O'Keefe - Requested by boost
Last 3: 77, 98, 104 (93 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 96, 90, 109 (98 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 104, 102, 116 (107 avg)

ROK let me down big time with a dismal 77 against a team he frequently smashes, meaning he's only two tons in his last five games. This week, he's back at the ground where he's been a lot more comfortable of late, the SCG, which his owners will hope helps his cause. Against the Saints, there's not much going for him, so I don't see anything great this week. Prediction - 95

Boyd - Requested by Adamant
Last 3: 112, 90, 152 (118 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 89, 125, 70 (95 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 112, 152, 112 (125 avg)

This is not the week to take a gamble on Boyd. He's had 4 scores of 112+ in his last 5, but they've been very spread out due to injury. He's also amazing at Etihad, particularly his last 4 there. Frankly, I think he probably will score well. However, it's only a probably for two reasons. Firstly, his body is clearly frail and we don't know if he'll last. More importantly, Adelaide are by far his worst team to face over his career. In his last 7 against them, he's only had a single ton. Over his career, he's just 4 from 15. I don't know what it is, but he doesn't score well against the Crows. Prediction - 100

[essendon2]

OMG YES!!


Been waiting for this all week ;) ::)



Can I request Montagna please (3rd week in a row) :P

[jvalles69]

Cox please!

[PowerBug]

GAJ ripped Port to shreds in 2011 when we lost to them at AAMI, it's still hurting now. The fact that he's back at AAMI, against Port, for the first time since that match, i'll be going the little master as C.

[pommyadam]

hard to look past Jelwood's current form, despite his history suggesting otherwise

note the Swan Nightfactor here being a friday game
also, what's Beams' MCG average with that 80 on return from injury wiped out?

[jvalles69]

hard to look past Jelwood's current form, despite his history suggesting otherwise

also, note the Swan Nightfactor here being a friday game

Scooter will tag him into the ground...hope he at least cracks 100.

[LaHug]

GAJ ripped Port to shreds in 2011 when we lost to them at AAMI, it's still hurting now. The fact that he's back at AAMI, against Port, for the first time since that match, i'll be going the little master as C.

Actually, he was held to just 26 disposals and 83 DT points in that game...

[LaHug]

note the Swan Nightfactor here being a friday game
also, what's Beams' MCG average with that 80 on return from injury wiped out?

I'm no longer sold on the night factor. Swan's had a 163 and a 130 at night this season.
Although, over averages, he's 122 in day/twilight games but only 111 in night games. He also has 3/8 of his night games under the magic 100. It probably will affect him and it's a good reason to go Beams over him.

[LF]

hard to look past Jelwood's current form, despite his history suggesting otherwise

also, note the Swan Nightfactor here being a friday game

Scooter will tag him into the ground...hope he at least cracks 100.

Scooter hasn't actually really been tagging

Could you do Stantspud and Sammy Mtichell please LaHug

[Titalicous]

How above Dangerfield?

[LaHug]

I'll have to do those other two requests after bball. Done the first three.

[pommyadam]

interesting to note that DT guru has Ward predicted as top scorer for this round
any chance of a write up LaHug? - more out of interest than anything, I don't have him (the mid i'm bringing in this round is Jobe too)

[LaHug]

interesting to note that DT guru has Ward predicted as top scorer for this round
any chance of a write up LaHug? - more out of interest than anything, I don't have him (the mid i'm bringing in this round is Jobe too)

Very interesting. He's had some good matchups in his last three, receiving very little attention and taking advantage of it. I think Raines will go to him but, if he runs free, I reckon he could easily be a top 5 this week!

[Ricochet]

Wow GAJ not in the top 5 :o is that the first time ever?
Personally I'm going with him, he will bounce back

[LaHug]

Probably is the first time ever. Swan's missed a couple of times but never GAJ! I still think he'll be good, I just think my top 5 will be better...