Who is going to finish 4th?!? x-post from Front Bar

[LaHug]

Note on edits: Struck text means that option is no longer possibly. Bold text means that it is now a lock.

I decided to go to the Ladder Predictor to see if anything could change too much in the last three weeks. I assumed that nothing extreme could happen and I was very, very wrong.

Firstly, I'll highlight the games that make huge differences to the top 8:
Round 21
Hawks vs. Pies RESULT - Hawks win
Tigers vs. Blues RESULT - Blues win
Bombers vs. Roos RESULT - Roos win

Round 22
Cats vs. Swans RESULT - Cats win
Blues vs. Bombers RESULT - Bombers win

Round 23
Swans vs. Hawks
Power vs. Blues
Bombers vs. Tigers

Just by changing the results of those games (everything else has been deemed a certainty or irrelevant to finals structure - obviously, huge upsets can happen, but I'm assuming they won't), the top 8 can change drastically.
Note: (%) means that the ladder position will be decided on percentage and is currently close enough to be taken into consideration.

• If Blues win all three, they finish 8th. Otherwise, Power finish 8th.
• If Swans lose both of those games, they can finish:
  
  
  • 6th if Pies beat Hawks AND either Tigers beat Blues and Bombers or Bombers win all three.
  • 5th if the above happens but Pies lose to Hawks OR the winner of Tigers/Bombers loses a different game.
  • 4th if the Pies lose to the Hawks AND the winner of Tigers/Bombers loses a different game.
• If Swans lose to Cats but beat Hawks, or vice versa, they finish 4th.
• If Swans win both, they can finish:
  
  
  
  • 2nd or 3rd (%) if Hawks beat Pies. In this case, Fremantle finishes 2nd or 3rd as well.
  • 1st or 2nd (%) if Pies beat Hawks. In this case, Fremantle finishes 1st or 2nd as well.
• If Pies beat Hawks, they can finish:
  
  
  
  • 5th if Swans win one of those games.
  • 4th if Swans lose both.
• If Pies lose to Hawks, they can finish:


• 6th if Tigers win both or Bombers win all three.
• 5th or 6th (%) if Tigers win one.
• 5th otherwise.
• If Cats lose to Swans, they can finish:
  
  
  
  • 3rd if Hawks beat Swans.
  • 4th if Swans beat Hawks.
• If Cats beat Swans, they can finish:
  
  
  
  • 2nd if Hawks win both.
  • 1st or 2nd (%) if Hawks beat one of Pies and Swans.
  • 1st if Hawks lose both.
• If Hawks beat at least one of Pies and Swans, they finish 1st (if they win both), 1st or 2nd (%) (if they win one)
• If Hawks lose to both Pies and Swans, they finish 3rd.
• If Bombers win all three, they can finish:
  
  
  
  • 4th if Pies lose to Hawks and Swans lose both.
  • 5th if Pies beat Hawks OR Swans win one.
  • 6th if Pies beat Hawks AND Swans win one.
• If Bombers beat Tigers but lose another game, they can finish:
  
  
  
  • 6th if Tigers lose to Blues.
  • 7th if Tigers beat Blues.
• In all other cases, Bombers finish 7th.
• If Tigers beat Blues and Bombers, they can finish:
  
  
  
  • 6th if Pies beat Hawks and Swans beat at least one of Hawks and Cats.
  • 5th if Pies beat Hawks but Swans lose to one of Hawks and Cats.
  • 4th or 5th (%) if Pies lose to Hawks but Swans beat one of Hawks and Cats.
  • 4th if Pies lose to Hawks AND Swans lose to both Hawks and Cats.
• If Tigers beat Bombers but lose to Blues, they can finish:
  
  
  
  • 6th if Pies beat Hawks.
  • 5th or 6th (%) if Pies lose to Hawks.
• If Tigers beat Blues but lose to Bombers, they can finish:
  
  
  
  • 7th if Bombers win all three and Pies beat Hawks.
  • 6th if Bombers lose any game but Pies beat Hawks.
  • 5th or 6th (%) if Bombers lose any game and Pies lose to Hawks.
• If Tigers lose both, they can finish:
  
  
  
  • 7th if Bombers beat Blues or Roos.
  • 6th if Bombers lose to both Blues and Roos.

If I've stuffed up any of the above, please let me know :)

This means, the ladder positions could be filled by any of the following... CRAZY!

• Hawks, Cats, Swans, Dockers
• Hawks, Cats, Swans, Dockers
• Hawks, Cats, Swans, Dockers
• Cats, Swans, Pies, Tigers, Bombers
• Swans, Pies, Tigers, Bombers
• Swans, Pies, Tigers, Bombers
• Tigers, Bombers
• Power, Blues

Again, if I've made any mistakes, let me know. Discuss!

P.s. CARN THE TIGES!

[valkorum]

I am only worried about the top 4 and I think it will be:

1: Hawks
2: Cats
3: Dockers
4: Swans

[ossie85]

Great write up LaHug!

The loss to the Gold Coast ruled out a top 4 spot for the Pies unfortunately I think.

Looks almost a certainty we will have an elimination final in week 1 between 2 Victorian powerhouses (Collingwood, Essendon or Richmond).

[LaHug]

A win this week will give you a huge chance but it'll be tough to beat the Hawks.

[LaHug]

I've updated the front post after this weekend's results. Things are looking a lot clearer now!

[Capper]

Things just worked out superbly for the Swans on the weekend as top 4 finish is in the bag.

If we win 1 or none of our remaining 2 games, then we dont have to play a home final in Week 1 at ANZ. I would be much happier to play our first final away then at ANZ.

[LaHug]

Things just worked out superbly for the Swans on the weekend as top 4 finish is in the bag.

If we win 1 or none of our remaining 2 games, then we dont have to play a home final in Week 1 at ANZ. I would be much happier to play our first final away then at ANZ.

Yeah. ANZ is not an advantage for the Swans. You guys hate it there.

[ossie85]

Things just worked out superbly for the Swans on the weekend as top 4 finish is in the bag.

If we win 1 or none of our remaining 2 games, then we dont have to play a home final in Week 1 at ANZ. I would be much happier to play our first final away then at ANZ.

Yeah. ANZ is not an advantage for the Swans. You guys hate it there.

Didn't hurt them too much last year! But yes, it is a disadvantage

[LaHug]

Final updates made... I think most things are set now.
Geelong can still finish top if the Swans beat the Hawks.
Freo locked in 3rd, Swans 4th, Power 8th. Tigers should finish 5th if they win but 7th if they lose. Pies either 5th or 6th. Bombers either 6th or 7th.

[Rusty00]

It seems to be a common thought now that Bombers will lose their points and won't play finals.

So if Essendon beat Richmond in the final round and Collingwood beat North, Collingwood will finish 5th and whoever their opponent in the first round of the finals is will have an extra days rest  :o

Can't see the Pies beaing too happy about this.

[ossie85]

It seems to be a common thought now that Bombers will lose their points and won't play finals.

So if Essendon beat Richmond in the final round and Collingwood beat North, Collingwood will finish 5th and whoever their opponent in the first round of the finals is will have an extra days rest  :o

Can't see the Pies beaing too happy about this.

I'm actually hoping the Pies (as a supporter) finish 6th so they play Port at the MCG in the first week of the finals. I don't think I could handle losing to Carlton in the finals if they made it on a technicality

[Ricochet]

Final updates made... I think most things are set now.
Geelong can still finish top if the Swans beat the Hawks.
Freo locked in 3rd, Swans 4th, Power 8th. Tigers should finish 5th if they win but 7th if they lose. Pies either 5th or 6th. Bombers either 6th or 7th.

Not if Brissie do what they did in round 13  :P

[Rusty00]

It seems to be a common thought now that Bombers will lose their points and won't play finals.

So if Essendon beat Richmond in the final round and Collingwood beat North, Collingwood will finish 5th and whoever their opponent in the first round of the finals is will have an extra days rest  :o

Can't see the Pies beaing too happy about this.

I'm actually hoping the Pies (as a supporter) finish 6th so they play Port at the MCG in the first week of the finals. I don't think I could handle losing to Carlton in the finals if they made it on a technicality

and then after Carlton finish 9th but make the finals on a technicality they beat Richmond in the first final, furthering Richmonds unwanted history relating to the 9th position   ;)

[ossie85]

I also think that Collingwood have a better chance of beating Geelong/Fremantle (likely 2nd and 3rd) in week 2 finals if need be, rather than Hawks/Sydney

6th has way more upside than 5th IMO

Of course, not taking anything for granted. Port have already beaten Collingwood once this year

[Rusty00]

I also think that Collingwood have a better chance of beating Geelong/Fremantle (likely 2nd and 3rd) in week 2 finals if need be, rather than Hawks/Sydney

6th has way more upside than 5th IMO

Of course, not taking anything for granted. Port have already beaten Collingwood once this year

You guys did beat Sydney fairly convincingly a few weeks ago. I would've thought you'd like your chances against Sydney in Sydney as opposed to Freo in Perth?