Who is going to finish 4th?!? (And other ladder positions)

[LaHug]

Note on edits: Struck text means that option is no longer possibly. Bold text means that it is now a lock.

I decided to go to the Ladder Predictor to see if anything could change too much in the last three weeks. I assumed that nothing extreme could happen and I was very, very wrong.

Firstly, I'll highlight the games that make huge differences to the top 8:
Round 21
Hawks vs. Pies RESULT - Hawks win
Tigers vs. Blues RESULT - Blues win
Bombers vs. Roos RESULT - Roos win

Round 22
Cats vs. Swans RESULT - Cats win
Blues vs. Bombers RESULT - Bombers win

Round 23
Swans vs. Hawks
Power vs. Blues
Bombers vs. Tigers

Just by changing the results of those games (everything else has been deemed a certainty or irrelevant to finals structure - obviously, huge upsets can happen, but I'm assuming they won't), the top 8 can change drastically.
Note: (%) means that the ladder position will be decided on percentage and is currently close enough to be taken into consideration.

• If Blues win all three, they finish 8th. Otherwise, Power finish 8th.
• If Swans lose both of those games, they can finish:
  
  
  • 6th if Pies beat Hawks AND either Tigers beat Blues and Bombers or Bombers win all three.
  • 5th if the above happens but Pies lose to Hawks OR the winner of Tigers/Bombers loses a different game.
  • 4th if the Pies lose to the Hawks AND the winner of Tigers/Bombers loses a different game.
• If Swans lose to Cats but beat Hawks, or vice versa, they finish 4th.
• If Swans win both, they can finish:
  
  
  
  • 2nd or 3rd (%) if Hawks beat Pies. In this case, Fremantle finishes 2nd or 3rd as well.
  • 1st or 2nd (%) if Pies beat Hawks. In this case, Fremantle finishes 1st or 2nd as well.
• If Pies beat Hawks, they can finish:
  
  
  
  • 5th if Swans win one of those games.
  • 4th if Swans lose both.
• If Pies lose to Hawks, they can finish:


• 6th if Tigers win both or Bombers win all three.
• 5th or 6th (%) if Tigers win one.
• 5th otherwise.
• If Cats lose to Swans, they can finish:
  
  
  
  • 3rd if Hawks beat Swans.
  • 4th if Swans beat Hawks.
• If Cats beat Swans, they can finish:
  
  
  
  • 2nd if Hawks win both.
  • 1st or 2nd (%) if Hawks beat one of Pies and Swans.
  • 1st if Hawks lose both.
• If Hawks beat at least one of Pies and Swans, they finish 1st (if they win both), 1st or 2nd (%) (if they win one)
• If Hawks lose to both Pies and Swans, they finish 3rd.
• If Bombers win all three, they can finish:
  
  
  
  • 4th if Pies lose to Hawks and Swans lose both.
  • 5th if Pies beat Hawks OR Swans win one.
  • 6th if Pies beat Hawks AND Swans win one.
• If Bombers beat Tigers but lose another game, they can finish:
  
  
  
  • 6th if Tigers lose to Blues.
  • 7th if Tigers beat Blues.
• In all other cases, Bombers finish 7th.
• If Tigers beat Blues and Bombers, they can finish:
  
  
  
  • 6th if Pies beat Hawks and Swans beat at least one of Hawks and Cats.
  • 5th if Pies beat Hawks but Swans lose to one of Hawks and Cats.
  • 4th or 5th (%) if Pies lose to Hawks but Swans beat one of Hawks and Cats.
  • 4th if Pies lose to Hawks AND Swans lose to both Hawks and Cats.
• If Tigers beat Bombers but lose to Blues, they can finish:
  
  
  
  • 6th if Pies beat Hawks.
  • 5th or 6th (%) if Pies lose to Hawks.
• If Tigers beat Blues but lose to Bombers, they can finish:
  
  
  
  • 7th if Bombers win all three and Pies beat Hawks.
  • 6th if Bombers lose any game but Pies beat Hawks.
  • 5th or 6th (%) if Bombers lose any game and Pies lose to Hawks.
• If Tigers lose both, they can finish:
  
  
  
  • 7th if Bombers beat Blues or Roos.
  • 6th if Bombers lose to both Blues and Roos.

If I've stuffed up any of the above, please let me know :)

This means, the ladder positions could be filled by any of the following... CRAZY!

• Hawks, Cats, Swans, Dockers
• Hawks, Cats, Swans, Dockers
• Hawks, Cats, Swans, Dockers
• Cats, Swans, Pies, Tigers, Bombers
• Swans, Pies, Tigers, Bombers
• Swans, Pies, Tigers, Bombers
• Tigers, Bombers
• Power, Blues

Again, if I've made any mistakes, let me know. Discuss!

P.s. CARN THE TIGES!

[Jukes]

1. Geelong 72
2. Freo 70
3. Hawthorn 68
4. Sydney 66
5. Pies 64
6. Tigers 62
7. Bombers 62
8. Port 52

Tipped a draw for bombers-tigers #yolo

[Mailman the 2nd]

I don't think it matters where you put the bombers

[LaHug]

I don't think it matters where you put the bombers

This is probably true but I'm almost certain they're going to finish 7th anyway. 6th at best...

[Capper]

ok so i had a go at this
http://www.afl.com.au/ladder/ladder-predictor

I was going to make a thread regarding the ladder predictor last week but forgot. Any close matches went to the Home team

So i have got
R21
Hawks over Pies, Port over Suns, Tigers over Blues, Dons over North, Cats over Eagle, Lions over Giants, Dockers over Dees, Swans over Saints, Crows over Dogs

R22
Pies over Eagle, Crows over Dees, Hawks over Roos, Cats over Swans, Dockers over Port, Blues over Dons, Suns over Saints, Tigers over Giants, Lions over Dogs

R23
Hawks over Swans, Dockers over Saints, Cats over Lions, Power over Blues, Eagles over Crows, Tigers over Dons, Suns over Giants, Pies over Roos, Dogs over Dees

For a final 8 of

Team	Wins	Points
Hawks	19	76
Cats	18	72
Dockers	17	70
Tigers	16	64
Swans	15	62
Pies	15	60
Dons	15	60
Port	13	52

But.....
If the Swans beat the Saints and Hawks and lose to Cats, then Swans and Tigers swap
If the Swans beat the Saints and Cats and lose to Hawks, then Swans and Tigers swap as well as Freo and Cats
If the Swans beat the Saints, Hawks and Cats, then Swans finish 2nd, Freo 3rd, Cats 4th, Tigers 5th. Swans then play Freo ad Hawks play Cats

[Toga]

A Richmond vs Essendon R23 match up into a Richmond vs Essendon Elimination Final back-to-back would be pretty epic! :o

[Vinny]

Just going to say some things I need to say. :P

Richmond really are a damaging side now and I reckon they will do pretty well in September.

Pies at full strength are lethal and Beams is a big part of the team's success and Daisy back aswell soon is frightening.

If Freo make Top 2 as I think they will, tough to beat at home.They will need to finish Top 2 to have a good shot at the flag.

Although I don't think Swans will finish Top 2, that loss to Collingwood is nothing to worry about. They are very capable.

Bombers I don't think can cause much damage at all come finals if they even play with all this ASADA stuff going on.

Geelong are Geelong and should finish on top and I reckon they will.

Cheers :)

[Toga]

Yeah, I gotta say as a Tigers supporter I really do not want to see the boys have to face off against Collingwood in week one of the finals - they are looking deadly at the moment!

[Vinny]

Two weeks ago with their under-par performances against GC and GWS, anyone would have said they are screwed.

But they looked very good against Essendon and Sydney and their next two should set them up well.

In saying that the Tiges are looking good too. Proved they can beat top sides in Fremantle and Hawthorn.

[Nige]

I called it at the start of the season that Essendon would finish 6th or 7th, looks like that might happen.  :o

Thought the Tiges would finish 8th though, but that's unlikely. Instead, we're a sneaky chance for top 4!  :o

[My Chumps]

Very, very confident that we won't lose to both the Hawks and the Cats.

[Vinny]

Who did you have for 9th and 10th, Tabs ?

[LaHug]

Very, very confident that we won't lose to both the Hawks and the Cats.

I'm thinking that you won't either. But I'm so hoping that you do ;)

[Capper]

Who did you have for 9th and 10th, Tabs ?

i didnt change margins so they are all set to 12 points

9th-12th on 40 points, so on percentage
Carlton
Adelaide
West Coast
Brisbane

[PowerBug]

Pies will win the flag, regardless of where they finish on the table.