LaHug's Captains - Round 20 - DT Finals!

[LaHug]

I happily do this every week, free of charge. However, if you are feeling generous and would like to thank me, please make a donation to my Cancer Research and Awareness Pledge: http://www.everydayhero.com.au/william_huggett

First time since they were so dominant last year that I've looked at the Pies' Big Four! Yet, they've been eclipsed by a bald headed ball magnet. Read on...

I'm back again for the third straight year of well researched captains advice!!!
For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. And remember, if you have any requests, just ask!

The facts:

Cotchin
Last 3: 137, 91, 144 (124 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 103, 102, 91 (99 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 137, 144, 85 (122 avg)

Rockliff
Last 3: 144, 97, 120 (120 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 82, 103, 132 (106 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 100, 130, 123 (118 avg)

J Selwood
Last 3: 98, 136, 133 (122 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 75, 119, 129 (108 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 136, 126, 38 (100 avg)

Johnson
Last 3: 112, 109, 156 (126 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 144, 79, 77 (100 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 109, 156, 94 (120 avg)

Gibbs
Last 3: 69, 104, 63 (79 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 93, 130, 116 (113 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 69, 63, 78 (70 avg)

Griffen
Last 3: 133, 106, 115 (118 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 109, 103, 111 (108 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 133, 106, 95 (111 avg)

O'Keefe
Last 3: 98, 104, 79 (94 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 136, 154, 132 (141 avg)
Last 3 at ANZ: 116, 132, 125 (124 avg)

Jack
Last 3: 140, 128, 97 (122 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 99, 84, 99 (94 avg)
Last 3 at ANZ: 107, 99, 127 (111 avg)

Swan
Last 3: 115, 163, 130 (136 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 85, 106, 125 (105 avg)
Last 3 at ANZ: 125, 110, 127 (121 avg)

Pendlebury
Last 3: 111, 74, 109 (98 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 95, 125, 105 (108 avg)
Last 3 at ANZ: 105, 107, 79 (97avg)

Beams
Last 3: 117, 130, 134 (127 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 99, 131, 63 (98 avg)
Last 3 at ANZ: 131, 63 (97 avg)

Sidebottom
Last 3: 126, 143, 99 (123 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 96, 89, 101 (95 avg)
Last 3 at ANZ: 101, 51, 82 (78 avg)

Ablett
Last 3: 89, 114, 163 (122 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 134, 130, 96 (120 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 114, 163, 109 (129 avg)

Watson
Last 3: 113, 16, 122 (84 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 122, 114, 75 (104 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 16, 96, 119 (77 avg)

Stanton
Last 3: 73, 89, 80 (81 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 103, 140, 109 (117 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 89, 107, 126 (107 avg)

S Selwood
Last 3: 98, 113, 102 (104 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 79, 93, 79 (84 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 113, 102, 124 (113 avg)

Harvey
Last 3: 118, 125, 95 (113 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 89, 66, 75 (77 avg)
Last 3 at AAMI: 61, 66, 93 (73 avg)

Barlow
Last 3: 106, 97, 106 (103 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 103 (103 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 97, 102, 111 (103 avg)

Fyfe
Last 3: 101, 128, 87 (105 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: N/A
Last 3 at Subiaco: 128, 131, 105 (121 avg)

The thoughts:

Cotchin
Welcome back to DT relevancy, Cotch. Two good games in his last three (both at the MCG) is what his owners have been waiting for. This week, he comes up against the Lions who he's not that great against. Those last three aren't horrid, but they're pretty mediocre. The huge plus is that his current form is great but Lids should still draw the Raines tag. At the G where he's gone big in his last two, this should be a good game. Prediction - 110

Rockliff
Rocky is in some kind of form and it's all because of his return to the midfield. Be wary of Brisbane players coming back and forcing him to spend more time forward this week... That will be hugely unfortunate as he looks the goods against the Tigers. His last game was poor but the two before that were good. Couple that with 5 straight tons at the MCG (hasn't played their this year but was 2/2 and 3/3 in 2012 and 2011) and you're looking at a healthy score. Prediction - 110

J Selwood
Jelwood was disappointing with a 98 last week but it's still very difficult to look past his post-bye form! He's very good against the Power with that 75 very deceptive but accomplished in a 3 quarter effort. Other than that, he has a 119 and a 129, both at Kardinia, in the two earlier encounters. I'm really liking him this week. Prediction - 115

Johnson
Before this year's game, Stevie J was useless against the Power and consistently put up mediocre-at-best numbers. Then, to silence the critics, he pumped out a massive 144 in round 9. His previous form against them is certainly scary, but his form this year is so hard to look past! Let's go with good but could be better... Prediction - 110

Gibbs
No way that you'd ever captain him but his record against the Dogs is very enticing. If you want to take a gamble in a draft league or something, you could definitely do worse. Before those three is a 122 which is a lovely last 4 against an opponent. At least we know he's worth holding onto and fielding this week, although his current form is awful. Prediction - 90

Griffen
It wasn't too long ago that I was telling you all to give this guy the big C and he disappointed us with a very mediocre score (while Swan broke the 160 mark). However, since then, he's been going alright with his last three a very good sign. His record against the Blues is nothing spectacular but is solid and we know that his scores at Etihad are usually handy. A pretty decent choice this week but be wary of the Carlton taggers. Prediction - 110

O'Keefe
ROK's last three are well below the standards of a midfield premium but that is strongly countered by his form against the Pies. Before those last three is a 113 and going way back to 2009 is a 149 against them, so we know how well he can do. Pair that with how good he is at Homebush and you've got yourself a great choice as a roughy this week! Prediction - 125

Jack
A year of DT stardom looked to be ending early for KJack before he went bang bang in the last two weeks! It's a pity that, this week, he comes up against the Pies who he's 0 for 9 tons against in his career. It's no certainty that he'll miss again this time, but it's enough to pass on him. Prediction - 99

Swan
It may be greediness talking, but I was actually a little disappointed with Swan's 115 last week as there was every chance he could've gone bigger! Despite that, he's been in fantastic form and is definitely one to consider this week. His last two against the Swans are poor but they weren't at ANZ, a ground that is the host for most Collingwood vs. Sydney games. In those games, Swan's gone 125, 110, 127, and 130 in his last 4. Delicious! Prediction - 125

Pendlebury
Unlike Swan, Pendles doesn't have some crazy love for ANZ in his favour. This is unfortunate as it would've been one of the few things going for him this week. His record against Sydney isn't bad but there's very little to see aside from that 125. Prediction - 100

Beams
Is Beams the must have that everyone says he is? Well, his last three say yes. But, on top of that, his last Homebush game against the Swans was a big 131. Might have to do whatever it takes to bring him in this week. Prediction - 120

Sidebottom
You'd never captain him after last year's incident, yet Steele is doing very well at the moment and has adapted amazingly to an intercept mark/link up player along the half back line! If he stays there for the rest of the year, expect a good average from here. However, his record against the Swans is poor with just the one ton in 2012. Although I'm annoying about picking Jelwood over him last week, I think this week might be a more average score. Prediction - 105

Ablett
Gary Ablett, in his 250th game, against the Demons (a team he's flogged the last two times), at Metricon (a ground where he's 9 tons from 9 tries this year), with a GC team in form. The only reason to not pick Ablett this week is pure desperation causing a POD pick. Prediction - 135

Watson
Jobe bounced back from his time on the sidelines with an impressive 113 and looks to finish the year well. His form against the Eagles is great with that 75 occurring in the West while, during the same season, he had a 127 under the roof. I like his chances to do well again. Prediction - 115

Stanton
Spudicus Stantonus was meant to return to his slutty ways with the return of his captain but, instead, managed to spud up even further. This week, he's near impossible to pick. On one side of the coin, he's in shocking form and the Eagles are super restrictive at the moment. On the other side, he has a good last few against the Eagles and scored a massive 140 on them last year at this very venue. I wouldn't risk captaining him and how he'll go is as predictable as the result of flipping a coin... Prediction - 85 or 115

S Selwood
Like his brother, Scooter came into last week with some form but pulled out a disappointing 98. This week, he doesn't look good, as he has 0 tons from 7 career games against the Bombers. He is 3 for 3 at Etihad this season, but I don't think that's enough to make up for the lack of scoring against the Bombers. He didn't play them earlier in the year but last year he scored a dismal 79 against them at the same venue. Prediction - 90

Harvey
Boomer's purple patch led me to have a look at him and boy was I disappointed. He hasn't scored a ton against the Crows since 2007 (that's 5 straight times under 100) and hasn't scored a ton at AAMI since 2009. Not looking good for Boomer! His 89 against them earlier in the year was a lazy performance with one good quarter (Q2) and three poor ones. Only 2 tackles as well. I think he could ton up against them, but I can't back him in. Prediction - 85

Barlow
There is very little about Barlow that excites me this week but, at the same time, there is very little that tells me he'll score anything but a ton. At Subi, he's been handy with 8 tons and 2 90s from 10 games. Against the Giants, in a single appearance (at Subi) last year, he scored 103. Literally everything about this screams that he'll score 103... Prediction - 103

Fyfe
Fyfe hasn't ever played the Giants, missing last year's game through injury, so there's nothing to base my thoughts on. I think he's perfect tag bait for the GWS taggers but his current form, particularly at home, should get him through. Prediction - 105

The verdict:

1. Ablett (135)
2. Swan (125)
3. O'Keefe (125)
4. Beams (120)
5. J Selwood (115)

Requests:

Liberatore - Requested by Ricochet
Last 3: 123, 142, 93 (119 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 95 (95 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 123, 142, 124 (130 avg)

Libba has had many impressive games this season and really looks like a future star! However, the fact that he's had all those big scores but still only averages 95 means that he's also had a lot of shockers. He's only had the one game against the Blues and that was for a 95 last year. The Blues haven't given up many DT points in the last 4 weeks which is a definite concern. There's a chance Libba will go big, but I don't see it happening. Prediction - 105

Montagna - Requested by essendon2
Last 3: 112, 109, 140 (120 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 79, 68, 79 (75 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 140, 64, 113 (106 avg)

Joey's form has been relatively patchy this year but pretty good overall. Unfortunately, Hawthorn are a team he hasn't scored a ton against since 2008. Pass. His current form means he'll probably be respectable though. Prediction - 90

Goddard - Requested by essendon2
Last 3: 94, 103, 83 (93 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 89, 87, 109 (95 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 103, 79, 123 (102 avg)

Godd has been solid this year for a back, but you wouldn't think he's a captain option. Some big scores have been paired with some lesser scores, particularly since the bye where he's averaging around 95. Nothing too flashy against the Eagles, and he only scored 89 on them earlier in the year. Prediction - 90

Mitchell - Requested by luvfooty
Last 3: 112, 111, 56 (93 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 112, 61, 95 (89 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 111, 68, 97 (92 avg)

It seems that, whenever Mitchell looks like he's back to his old DT premium status, he pulls out a shocking score. He started the year by racking it up across the halfback line yet has scored under 100 7 times from 17 games, enough to be averaging a lackluster 98. Against the Saints, he was good last year but three scores under 100 precede that. Then you have another ton before two more in double digits. Jones will tag him and that's enough for me to steer clear. Prediction - 95

Mundy - Requested by luvfooty
Last 3: 92, 92, 101 (95 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 57 (57 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 92, 113, 116 (107 avg)

I don't recall watching the game, but last time Freo played GWS, Mundy was subbed off in the third quarter with a dismal 57. I don't know why he was subbed off but, regardless, he wasn't on track for a big score. This doesn't bode well for Mundy who is coming off two straight 92s and has had his share of sub-100 scores for the season. Even at home where he does most of his scoring, he's only 5 for 9 on the year. However, all 5 of those tons are 113+. He should do well against the Giants but it's really no certainty and I wouldn't take the gamble. Prediction - 100

Redden - Requested by strikes91
Last 3: 122, 87, 112 (107 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 93, 118, 131 (114 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 93, 82, 117 (97 avg)

If you like patterns, you may have noticed that, since round 4, Redden has scored below 95 every second week (and 95+ every other week). Only one of those sub-95 scores has been above 90 and, at the same time, only one of the other scores has been below 100. Even if this is pure coincidence, that's not a good sign for his consistency. Against Richmond, he averages a huge 115 and they're his best team to play against. Expect the pattern to be broken but don't take the risk unless it's a draft league. Prediction - 110

Bartel - Requested by strikes91
Last 3: 90, 66, 69 (75 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 112, 88, 140 (113 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 69, 105, 119 (98 avg)

Four straight scores for Jimmy under 100 and three of those under 80. Sure, his records against Port and at home are great, but even they have blips (that 88 against Port and three straight under 100 from '08-'09, plus that 69 at home against the Dees just three weeks ago). Don't expect anything good from him this week but do realise that there is always a chance. Prediction - 85

[LaHug]

Sorry guys, have to rush out to bball and haven't quite finished. Players from Sunday's game to come soon! Until then, this thread is locked. You'll have the opportunity to request people when I reopen it!

[LaHug]

We're live, guys!

[Ricochet]

Great work LH. Hard to look past Ablett at this stage.
Can you look at Libba please mate

[pommyadam]

so many reviews this week :O

Gaj locked in (trust the old dog) with Beamsy as vice

[LaHug]

Great work LH. Hard to look past Ablett at this stage.
Can you look at Libba please mate

Yeah, will do now!

so many reviews this week :O

Gaj locked in (trust the old dog) with Beamsy as vice

I went a little overboard because it's DT finals and doing this was going to help me with some trade decisions anyway :P

[essendon2]

Can I request Montagna and Goddard please ;)

[LaHug]

Can I request Montagna and Goddard please ;)

No :P






Will do now

[LF]

Hey LaHug
Could you do Sammy Mitchell,Mundy and Stantspud just curious on your predictions compared to assistant coach.
Thanks :)

[LaHug]

Hey LaHug
Could you do Sammy Mitchell,Mundy and Stantspud just curious on your predictions compared to assistant coach.
Thanks :)

Already done Stantspud (he's there under his other names: Stanton and Spudicus Stantonus)
Unfortunately, he looks like the most unpredictable one of the bunch this week :-\
I'll look at the other two after lunch :)

[LF]

Hey LaHug
Could you do Sammy Mitchell,Mundy and Stantspud just curious on your predictions compared to assistant coach.
Thanks :)

Already done Stantspud (he's there under his other names: Stanton and Spudicus Stantonus)
Unfortunately, he looks like the most unpredictable one of the bunch this week :-\
I'll look at the other two after lunch :)

Oops I missed him

[strikes91]

Redden and Bartel ?

[Ricochet]

Great work LH. Hard to look past Ablett at this stage.
Can you look at Libba please mate

Yeah, will do now!

Legend, cheers mate

[LaHug]

Hey LaHug
Could you do Sammy Mitchell,Mundy and Stantspud just curious on your predictions compared to assistant coach.
Thanks :)

Already done Stantspud (he's there under his other names: Stanton and Spudicus Stantonus)
Unfortunately, he looks like the most unpredictable one of the bunch this week :-\
I'll look at the other two after lunch :)

Oops I missed him

Done

Redden and Bartel ?

Will look now. Interesting choices...

[LF]

Thanks LaHug