LaHug's Captains - Round 19 - Request your own week! (Fluctuating Top 5)

[LaHug]

I happily do this every week, free of charge. However, if you are feeling generous and would like to thank me, please make a donation to my Cancer Research and Awareness Pledge: http://www.everydayhero.com.au/william_huggett

Swanny did me proud last week! This week, I'm very busy so this is how it will go. I'm only comparing Ablett and Swan for this week and leaving the rest up to you. Everyone can have a request BUT NOBODY CAN HAVE MORE THAN 2! That way, I can get through them all, disappoint nobody, and not go crazy.

I'm back again for the third straight year of well researched captains advice!!!
For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. And remember, if you have any requests, just ask!

The facts:

Ablett
Last 3: 114, 163, 106 (128 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 102, 132, 127 (120 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 102, 175, 132 (136 avg)

Swan
Last 3: 163, 130, 106 (133 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 120, 187, 171 (159 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 163, 106, 163 (144 avg)

The thoughts:

Ablett
GAJ is a superstar but he comes up against the super stingy Eagles this week. He only scored 102 against them at this same ground last year, which is not a good sign. He's had bigger scores on them in the past, such as a 132 in his first game against them as a Sun, as well as some really big ones (a 155 and a 147 back in his Geelong days) but that 102 as his most recent is worrying. It was, however, in a 126 point loss (which won't be the case this week) and tagged by Scott Selwood (who did a decent job tagging Griffen last week). Probably not going to be one of Ablett's best weeks this week. Prediction - 115

Swan
Swanny has disappointed us a few times this season but looks the goods this week. His record against Essendon is awesome with that 120 being a very subpar game, following a 187, 171, and 171. He's also had a good last few at the MCG, a ground where most of his best performances have come. I'd say Swan is more likely than Ablett to score under 100 this season (he's done it three times to Ablett's one), but he should kill it against a Jobe-less Dons. Prediction - 130

The verdict:

1. Swan (130)
2. J. Selwood (130)
3. Ablett (115)
4. Beams (115)
5. Jack (115)
Roughy of the week: Dean Cox (120)*

*Massive risk!

Requests:
Maximum 2 requests per person. Get them in!

Griffen - Requested by its me lads
Last 3: 106, 115, 95 (105 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 127, 98, 97 (107 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 106, 95, 133 (111 avg)

A few slightly better scores after two sub-tons but Griffen's still been disappointing after his post-bye spurt. Against the Swans, he's been pretty decent (particularly last year with a 127 at Etihad) but the Swans are even better right now so it'll be tough. Prediction - 105

Dangerfield - Requested by its me lads
Last 3: 70, 95, 116 (94 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 95, 89, 140 (108 avg)
Last 3 at AAMI: 95, 89, 98 (94 avg)

A 15 point differential between his SC average and DT average just about sums it up. Danger is not a DT premium this year, has multiple sub-100s against his name in his last few games (4 from his last 6), against the Power, and at AAMI. Nope. Prediction - 95

S. Selwood - Requested by Mr. Craig
Last 3: 113, 102, 124 (113 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 92, 96 (94 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 135, 71, 119 (108 avg)

Scooter is quite a good tagger when he focuses his whole game on it. That's what happened the last two times he played against the Suns (tagging Ablett) and it will happen again. Unfortunately, this has a negative outcome on his scoring. Prediction - 95

Beams - Requested by ADEZ
Last 3: 130, 134, 80 (115 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 113, 121, 98 (111 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 130, 80, 113 (108 avg)

Beams has had two good games in a row and now comes up against the Bombers, a team he's had two good games in a row against. This is a good week to test whether or not Beams is actually his old dominant self, as games against the two expansions clubs don't necessarily prove it. He should be good though, those numbers are positive! Prediction - 115

J. Selwood - Requested by ADEZ
Last 3: 136, 133, 126 (132 avg)
Last 3 against North: 109, 106, 124 (113 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 101, 95, 90 (95 avg)

The lowest score in Jelwood's last 4 is a 126. He's been phenomenal recently with only the Freo game (was always going to be poor) as an outlier. If his run home were easier (faces both Sydney and West Coast before the finish), he'd have to be a lock in every team. Note that his good scores have come against teams he doesn't necessarily have a good record against (see St. Kilda) so the fact that he's actually solid against the Roos is a huge positive. The risk of him being shut down by a tag in any given game is the one thing holding him back. Prediction - 130

Pendlebury - Requested by nrich102
Last 3: 74, 109. 153 (112 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 108, 106, 113 (109 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 74, 153, 133 (120 avg)

Two weeks ago, I was talking up Pendles so much that he was my number 1 option. Then, he disappointed us, but still found himself at number 2. After a 74, we really have to rethink just how good he is. Pendles struggled a lot last week due to a tag and hasn't scored hugely in his last three against the Bombers because of Heath Hocking. The same tag will go to him and, after the last two weeks with Beams and Swan getting all the ball, Pendles might struggle. Prediction - 105

Stanton - Requested by Toga
Last 3: 89, 90, 107 (92 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 114, 109, 77 (100 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 52, 144, 114 (103 avg)

Watson back is huge for Stanton. He's been poor without his skipper as a run and carry player is useless without his major ball winner. Expect an increase in scoring again now that Jobe has returned. However, tags can still hurt Stanton and, if Macaffer tags, there could be trouble. It's very difficult to predict in advance so we'll guess that it won't happen but don't say I didn't warn you that it's a real possibility! Prediction - 110

Fyfe - Requested by jacksonmcguire
Last 3: 128, 87, 131 (115 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 91, 92, 62 (82 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 101, 88, 99 (96 avg)

Before this season, there were four teams that Fyfe had never successfully scored a ton against. They were Brisbane, Carlton, Richmond, and St. Kilda. This season, he's scored 77 against the Lions, a 97 and 87 against the Tigers, and a 105 against the Saints. History seems to be repeating itself. Fyfe's last three look good because of the two big scores, but the 87 in the middle is typical of his up and down season that sees him averaging 100 flat and having a hit rate of 8 tons from 15 games. His finish to the season would imply that he'll score well if you get him into your team, but don't captain him and wait a week if you can. Prediction - 90

Montagna - Requested by jacksonmcguire
Last 3: 109, 140, 64 (104 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 102, 126, 129 (119 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 102, 126, 129 (119 avg)

Joey has been a bit inconsistent of late but when he fires, it's awesome. His form against the Lions is very nice with those three and a 133 before that. The Gabba doesn't phase him either with the last three encounters all being up north. Expect something pretty handy from him this week but I don't know if I'd risk it. Prediction - 110

Barlow - Requested by luvfooty
Last 3: 97, 106, 102 (102 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 105, 117, 121 (114 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 91, 85, 80 (85 avg)

Very tough one to call this week so I'll split it into pros and cons. Pros: Averaging 108.5, great record against the Blues (they're his only three appearances against them). Cons: Current form (that's not a great last three), form in Melbourne (particularly at Etihad). There's a good chance he'll be good but I think we should play it safe. Prediction - 105

Jack - Requested by muntedmyke
Last 3: 128, 97, 79 (101 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 110, 131, 123 (121 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 110, 97, 91 (99 avg)

After four shocking weeks in a row, KJack bounced back last week. Now he comes up against the Doggies, a team he has a great record against. Look for another good one. Prediction - 115

Boyd - Requested by Adamant
Not named.

Rockliff - Requested by strikes91
Last 3: 97, 120, 134 (117 avg)
Last 3 against St. Kilda: 81, 106, 110 (99 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 134, 86, 77 (99 avg)

Rocky's been in form recently, with a 97 last week being the worst of his last three in a tough game against the Power. The other two are really good and his form against St. Kilda's respectable too. If the Lions can do anything even close to what the Cats did to the Saints last week, Rocky will benefit greatly. Should get a respectable score but I don't see enough for anything big. Prediction - 105

Johnson - Requested by pommyadam
Last 3: 109, 156, 129 (131 avg)
Last 3 against North: 60, 124, 86 (90 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 105, 141, 92 (113 avg)

We know how big Stevie J can score on any given week which is why I didn't count him out against the Saints, one of only three teams he's never topped the 130 against. His record against North tells us very little. He was poor last year and his most recent before that is 2009. The other team he scored 60 against last year was Carlton, and they held him to 92 this year. The Roos have been very stingy with DT points in recent weeks, so watch out. Still, his awesome form will scrape him a ton. Prediction - 100

T.Mitchell - Requested by essendon2
Last 3: 112, 74, 113 (100 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: N/A
Last 3 at Etihad: N/A

Way to give me a player with no stats to work with... What we do know is that Tommy Mitchell is a very good first year player but has still only scored tons on 50% of his games. The most frustrating thing for most of his owners is taking a 74 on the field then benching him for a 112 the next week. This week, against the Dogs, you'd expect a ton. If the Swans get up by a lot, his midfield time will increase and his scoring will lift with it. That should probably happen this week. Prediction - 110

Cotchin - Requested by essendon2
Last 3: 91, 144, 114 (116 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 113, 68, 90 (90 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 144, 85, 71 (100 avg)

Cotchin had two solid scores in a row because Richmond had two solid wins (despite how close the GC game was, Richmond were much better and just couldn't kick straight). Then comes along a big loss to the Swans and Cotchin struggles to a 91. Last year, Cotch was good against the Hawks in a big win. Richmond won't win this game (it could be close though... could be...) so that hurts his score. On the MCG, he'll be more comfortable than at the SCG. Add to this that the Hawks sometimes give up lots of DT points (about half the time) and there's a chance for something good. Unfortunately, there's just as much chance for something poor. Prediction - 100

Sidebottom - Requested by Ricochet
Last 3: 143, 99, 105 (116 avg)
Last 3 against 143, 67, 109 (106 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 143, 105, 76 (108 avg)

I distinctly remember a game last year where Sidebottom was talked up to be a definite captain lock by just about everyone and returned a shocking score. Since then, I've never dreamed of putting the C on him. Still, he has to be worth a look as a player to bring into your team. With Beams back, he's averaged 116 (inflated because of the 143) and is practically on 3 for 3 tons (99 is close...). He's clearly a better player when Collingwood has Swan, Beams, and Pendles all playing, and that's a very good sign considering his opponent this week. Earlier in the year, against the Bombers, Sidey scored a big 143. I'm still not sold but a good score's a real possibility. Prediction - 110

Cox - Requested by stew42
Last 3: 102, 79, 59 (80 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 120, 145 (133 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 79, 59, 104 (81 avg)

Cox without Nic Nat is almost a certain ton. Cox against the Suns and without Nic Nat is really, really close to a certain ton. There's no such thing as a certain ton though, and Cox has given us plenty of reasons not to captain him this season. I'm backing something big but you'd be insane to pick him. Prediction - 120*

O'Keefe - Requested by Alka
Last 3: 104, 79, 102 (95 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 115, 75, 87 (92 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 115, 93, 105 (104 avg)

ROK is having a solid year as part of the best midfield in the AFL. His last few weeks, however, have been well below what we've become accustomed to since the bye. Against the Bulldogs, he's pretty poor outside of his most recent game. However, that game was at Etihad, where he actually scores quite well. Considering that the other two in his last three were home games, it probably benefits ROK that this game is at Etihad. I wouldn't back him for anything huge but should be solid. Prediction - 105

Coffee poll results:

1. Ice coffee (15)
1. No coffee (15)
3. White coffee, sugar (11)
4. White coffee, no sugar (6)
5. Black coffee, no sugar (2)
6. Black coffee, sugar (0)

[its me lads]

I only drink Ice Coffee  :D



Could I request Griffen and Dangerfield please  :)

[Mr.Craig]

I have never had a coffee in my life, not even one sip.

My request is for Scott Selwood.

[its me lads]

Want to back Swan in this week at the moment. Do you think Swans score will be lower if the Pies get rolled?

[LaHug]

Want to back Swan in this week at the moment. Do you think Swans score will be lower if the Pies get rolled?

Most players score lower if their team gets rolled. Then again, I don't think the Bombers will roll the Pies without Watson...

[ADEZ]

cheers!
could i request beams and joel selwood

[nrich102]

Ice Coffee :P

Pendles thanks

[LaHug]

Done some requests and need to do others after bball :) Keep 'em coming!

[Toga]

Stanton if you would! :)

Cheers Huggy!

[jacksonmcguire]

Fyfe and Montagna please :D

[LF]

Barlow please LaHug

[muntedmyke]

kieran jack please kind sir

[ADEZ]

I only drink Ice Coffee  :D



Could I request Griffen and Dangerfield please  :)

Only some will understand....the thing I miss most from the territory  :'(

[Adamant]

Boyd please LaHug. :)

[strikes91]

Rocky and Montagna thanks