Goal Keeper 13/14

[m-ry]

Hi Im going to go through a few thing starting with Top/Mid/low Priced player in EPL give you my view on each player and how i think they will go. Also give you other insights on manager's, playing styles and evan pending transfers and what effects they are going to have/possibly have. so ill start with Goal Keepers

[m-ry]

Top Price 6m-6.5m only 4 in this price range

Hart MCI 6.5m New manager to start with, Pellegrini love attacking football most likely going to be playing a modified 4-4-2. Hart   
                    should be pretty much the same. one thing i am thinking is clean sheets, playing attack-ive football mean getting 
                    exposed more often. leading to less clean sheet this year
                    Prediction 150-160 points

Cech CHE 6.5m The Special One is back, which can only mean 1 thing for chelsea no.1 keeper Cech, Clean Sheets!!!! i expect
                      golden gloves this year, 3 straight years when jose was in charged. Cech will be number one fantasy keeper this year
                      but only just. Also 2 games in the opening week
                      Prediction 160-170 points

Other mentions:

De Gea MUN 6m. Another year at United, he should be better then last year, but beware, he is going to
                        be rested or poor form will come in as he is still young and small for premier league football plus there are better
                        options around (cheaper too) moyers only like to use 1 keeper so no sharing with Lindegaard
                        Prediction 130-140 points

Lloris TOT 6m    Is No.1 Now from the start (not like the start of last season) tough one to pick as bale transfer
                      continues on, i know it at the other end of the pitch but tottenham go from title conteners to mid-table battlers
                      without him.
                      With bale Prediction 135-145 points with out 125-135 Points

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Mid Price GK 5m-5.5m

Szczesny ARS 5.5m. Very Good option to start with only 102 points last year because of injury... concern when buying the transfer
                           window is open and arsenal have been linked with a lot of keeper (reina) due to wanger not liking/trusting him
                           in goals.. Szczesny dose have his moments of brilliance along with not so brilliance patches which can cost you
                           a game.
                          Prediction 130-140
           
Howard EVE 5.5m.  New manager, new game plan, new players.... i expect Everton to be very good defensively this year. Martinez 
                           with wigan last year like 4 and 3 at the back i expect him to stay with 4 as thats how Everton played last year...
                           when it get to the business part of the season he may consider changing it a bit depending on how well they are
                           going.
                           Prediction 125-135 points

Jaaskelainen WHU 5.5m.West ham just one of those teams that is not going to go anywhere, dont expect major changes is points in 
                                 the back half of the team only thing is hes starting price is 1m more this time around, will have some big
                                 weeks and also some minus weeks.
                                 Prediction 130-140 points

Mignolet LIV 5.5m. New player, Very good keeper in an improving team. 144 points last year BUT.... Although i do expect more
                          clean sheets around, last year he had 11 BUT most of hes points came from saves 155 saves now when you
                          compare him to reina (81 saves last year) and only 125 points, DO NOT EXPECT 144 points again.
                          Prediction 120-130

Begovic STK 5.5m Being link with every club under the sun, but i think he wont move on. which is good. New manager in who is
                         another lover of attacking style football but like jose (chelsea) Mark Hughes (ManU through and through) wont
                         let his def slack off.
                         Prediction 135-145

Krul NEW 5m.       Krul had a year to forget. Injury, extra games with europe and having no back up No.2 to help out. krul numbers
                         where down... ALOT.  75 points from the season down from 156 the year before. We know how well he can be,
                         with no europe means no traveling and no add pressure of performing to the high standard of the 11/12 season,
                         expect big changes. under an injury cloud at ATM... dislocated shoulder if not right for the 1st game will be ready
                         to go the 2nd.
                         Prediction 140-150 point

Guzan AVL 5m.     Short and sweet NO. 1 point i will make is he has 2 games in week 1, so if your going cheap keeper he could get
                         about 6-10 points in the opening week which is good, depending how many get past him. MCI, CHE will be
                         looking to get the jump on MUN so dont expect much for him 
                         Prediction  120-135

Stekelenburg FUL 5m. Sign from Roma, has played for Martin Jol before and the fact they have been chasing him since Jan, said to
                              me hes there No.1. Italian league not know for its toughness compared to EPL so if he struggles to adapt the 
                              Stockdale will come in 
                              Prediction 100-120 if hes No.1

Ruddy NOR 5m.    was good in first season 97 points from a 4m keeper is good but last season 5m returned you 67 points :( not
                         good, was in and out of the team, injured for some of the season and didnt get hes form back. expecting him to
                         better his 67 points last year. 
                         Prediction 95-105 points

Vorm SWA 5m.     Was the man in 11/12 season 4.5m bagged you 156 points, only .5 more this year, word of warning for the one,
                         as good as it is playing in europe, they are doing it the long. first game is the 1-8-13(tomorrow/today when you
                         read this) so the added fixtures unwanted by fantasy team owners, will see him miss a few games
                        Prediction 110-120 could push 130 if they are knocked out early from europe.
                         Prediction 80-100 if they have a good run in europe

Foster WBA 5m. 105 point last year which when i looked i was surprised considering how well WBA did last year, the guy is good
                      playing for a mid-table team
                      Prediction 125-135

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4m-4.5m

Marshall CAR 4.5m Number one at cardiff played all 46 games in the title winning season, wouldnt be worried about the new sign
                         moore, as good as he is its only for backup when needed. only conceded 42 goals in the championship but the
                         way cardiff play free flowing football that number will rise to close to 70 if they dont change.
                         Prediction 130-150 number of saves will be high

Speroni CRY 4.5m Played every game 49 includes playoff run, the way palace play i see them going back to the championship at the
                          seasons end. as cheap as he is he is going to be no good for (god help you) if you need him on the field
                          Prediction 95-110

McGregor HUL 4.5m Hull last year use 2 keeper Amos from ManU and Stockdale from fulham both on loan so this say to me they
                           dont like this guy between the sticks
                           Prediction 0-25

Harper HUL 4m     Just sign this season with hall with premier league experience hes there No.1 keeper. hull play good football and
                         have a good balance of play, def-mid-for all work well together, hull where looking to run away with it title mid-
                         way through the season, then injury and loan deals changed (keeper) 8 games without a win let cardiff run away
                         with it in the end.
                         Prediction 130-140

Westwood SUN 4m
Mannone SUN 4m with Mignolet now join up with liverpool the No.1 keeping spot is up for grabs, who know
                        whos going to be No.1 come seasons end but pretty sure Mannone will start due to have had more premier league
                        games behind him.
                        Prediction Mannone 60-70 Prediction Westwood 50-60
                        if one of them get the gig full time Prediction about 100 from the guy who gets it

[m-ry]

DO NOT TOUCH GUYS
Schwarzer CHE Do Not Touch
Lindegaard MUN Do Not Touch
Butland STK  Do Not Touch
They are all good but are No.2 at their clubs
And anyone else not mention :)

So Who To Get
Top price keeper Cech or Hart are you men. Either one will be great 150+
i wouldnt bother with any of the 6m men because if your going to pay that much for them just fork out .5 more for Cech or Hart

For Mid-Price options wont go wrong with Jaaskelainen, Begovic or Krul either really could go 120-150 on there year

For Cheap Keepers Harper looks to be the best followed by Marshall both should get you 130+

[m-ry]

Hope this help you out going to do def next if you have any request for def just reply me or even about a goalie. give me a few days to get it sort as its going to be a bit harder, if anyone want to do mid and fwd be my guest

[Andy3737]

Mign i think is the clear value pick. Will score just below but its 1m cheaper. De gea/hart the obv pocks if you want the best.

[m-ry]

mign will be ok last 155 save = 51 points. liverpool don't give up many shot 2nd lowest against last from the top of my head.
So let say mign only takes 100 saves (20 more then reina last year) that = 33 point a lost of 18 points just from that.
155=137
if your worried about money heaper at 4m is best value
value pick for me would be krul 5m will score the same as mign and proven he could go higher
newcastle to finish around 9th-12th is my prediction

[Andy3737]

Why newcastle so high? What have they done to warrant a mid table/ challenge for europa after they barely avoided relegation?

Liverpool on the other hand have improved their squad vastly, while may lose Suarez, they have the stature to bring in a replacement.

[m-ry]

ok Liverpool first.... Yes i agree with you they are getting better or improving, but like i stated if your looking at Mign to get you 140-150 points this year i'd look again,
last yeah Mign point brake down were 12/13 season

Appearances 38 games and every minute = 2x38 = 76 point
saves 155 = 155/38 games  ave 4.08 a game = 1 point every game give or take = 38 points
clean sheets 11 = 44 points
goals conceded 54 = 54 - 38 games = 16 goals remaining, therefore 16 games AVE he conceded 2 goals = -16 points
bonus points 2 = 2points
yellow cards 1 = -1 point

so on this BASIC calculations he scores 143 points 12/13 season he scored 140

So my prediction on Mign for the 13/14 season is
appearance 38 = 76 points
saves 100 = 100/38 ave 2.62 = 0 points which is not true say .62 % of he's games he is getting 3 saves that would be 24 games
                  24/38 = 63% so 24 points
clean sheets should improve on he's 11 so ill give him 14 = 56 points
goals conceded 43 goals ill just go off last years totals = 43-38 = 5 games conceded twice - 5 points. Liverpool will conceded 40-45
bonus point = none playing with better players (suarez)
yellow cards = he's career ave 1 a season = -1

on this BASIC Calculations he scores 150 points for the year but remember i gave him top end on saves and clean sheets.
after looking at this i've changed my mind on Mign PREDICTION 135-145

say we predict him to get around the same as reina did last year
appearances 38 = 38x 4 = 76 points
saves 85 = 2.23 saves a game = .23% of games is 9 = 9 points
clean sheets 14 = 56 points
goals conceded = 43 as above -5points
bonus = 0
yellow cards 1 = -1 point

so on this BASIC calculations he scores 135 points  give or take

[Andy3737]

You also have to take into consideration liverpool are a better side, meaning more wins, more cleansheets etc. mign is better than reina aswell. Reina has declined so much and hisnpositioning is awful. Saving 1m on gk and spending it a fwd/mid is going to be worth more points

[m-ry]

Now on Newcastle
14 Games play in europa last season resulting in 5 Wins 7 Loses and 1 Draw... only 13 games you say, they played 2 eurpoa league games in a row with 7 day gap

Start with Wins
WBA 2-1, Norwich 1-0, fulham 1-0, southamton 4-2 and stoke 2-1

WBA was the only win they knocked up when they played europa at home, so no traveling
Norwich, Fulham and Southamton wins, against team they should beat anyways but did so when they played away in europa league
stoke win is the only one i see they should not have won but did... Bonus i guest

Now loses
ManU 3-0, Chelsea 2-0, Southamton 2-0, Wigan 2-1, Sunderland 3-0, Westham 1-0 and fulham 2-1
Loses to ManU and Chelsea and given weather playing europa 3 day before or not
but what is interesting is  the wigan and sunderland games both terriable teams wigna relegated in the end and sunderland very close to as well

Wigan        18th, 36 points
Sunderland  17th, 39 points

JUST by wining thes 2 matches which they should have.
Newcastle go from 16th place, 41 points to  Newcastle 9th place, 47 points.

my point being Newcastle are a good side down on luck playing in a very tough competition, which if you have a small squad its very hard for you to travel away, travel back the same day as the match and then back it up with a premier league match 3 days later.
also like to mention wigan game was match day 29 and the sunderland game was match day 32, very late in the season, i'd say some vey tired men playing out there

[m-ry]

You also have to take into consideration liverpool are a better side, meaning more wins, more cleansheets etc. mign is better than reina aswell. Reina has declined so much and hisnpositioning is awful. Saving 1m on gk and spending it a fwd/mid is going to be worth more points

i understand what your saying and ive change Mign score to 135-145, still dont think mign/liverpool will get anymore then 14 clean sheets this year. as they havent really impoved the squad down back
hart 18 clean sheet can see that droping with the all out attack the new manager will bring in
cech 14 clean sheets jose loves to shut out teams, just hasnt got drogba to win all match for him anymore
Begovic 12 clean sheet
reina 14 clean sheets

[Andy3737]

Shoulda woulda coulda tho

They didnt

And im sure there is going to be more of those next year. Every team doesnt win every match they are supposed to.

[Tominator]

this is a great thread - maybe give it a new title, but I really like it, good stuff!!

maybe a title like  "FPL Analysis 2013/14 - Goalkeepers"