LaHug's Captains - Round 18 - UPDATED TOP 6!

[LaHug]

I happily do this every week, free of charge. However, if you are feeling generous and would like to thank me, please make a donation to my Cancer Research and Awareness Pledge: http://www.everydayhero.com.au/william_huggett

The curse was back with Pendles being disappointing but options 2 and 3 being huge! What will happen this week?

I'm back again for the third straight year of well researched captains advice!!!
For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. And remember, if you have any requests, just ask!

The facts:

Stanton
Last 3: 80, 107, 126 (104 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 62, 119, 70 (84 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 107, 126, 103 (112 avg)

Ablett
Last 3: 163, 106, 109 (126 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 89, 96, 95 (93 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 163, 109, 119 (130 avg)

Swallow
Last 3: 70, 83, 74 (79 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 160, 86, 105 (117 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 70, 74, 90 (78 avg)

Swan
Last 3: 130, 106, 163 (133 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 159 (159 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 106, 163, 130 (133 avg)

Pendlebury
Last 3: 109, 153, 133 (132 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 114 (114 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 153, 133, 117 (134 avg)

Selwood
Last 3: 133, 126, 128 (129 avg)
Last 3 against St. Kilda: 67, 27, 81 (58 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 126, 38, 83 (82 avg)

Barlow
Last 3: 106, 102, 111 (106 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 118, 90, 101 (103 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 102, 111, 124 (112 avg)

Griffen
Last 3: 115, 95, 86 (99 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 47, 100, 95 (81 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 95, 133, 115 (114 avg)

O'Keefe
Last 3: 79, 102, 128 (103 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 78, 106, 103 (96 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 102, 116, 70 (96 avg)

Cotchin
Last 3: 144, 114, 100 (119 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 96, 121, 101 (106 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 101, 41, 62 (68 avg)

The thoughts:

Stanton
Still unsure how he'll go with Watson in the line up but, so far, Stanton has been disappointing. Against the Hawks, he has a 62 from injury and a 119. Then, before that 70, it's 6 straight tons with the most recent 4 being comfortably over 120. We know he can score very well but will he? If nobody tags him, I expect big things. If Sewell plays him closely, it might be bad. Prediction - 105

Ablett
The little master was HUGE last week but has a discerningly poor record against the Blues. Three straight scores under 100 thanks to the tagging efforts of Carrazzo. GAJ has lifted his game to next level (again) this season so who knows what he'll do. He has had big scores against the Blues before (145 in 2010 with the Cats) and who knows what Malthouse will throw at him (Curnow? Cachia? Carrazzo?). I think GAJ will get some close attention from someone and it will slow him down but he'll be ok. Prediction - 115

Swallow
Swallow scored 160 against the Dees last year but his form is so atrocious I can't even assure you a ton! Last time North smashed someone (let's face it, they'll smash the Dees) was against my Tigers. Swallow was held to a dismal 74. By all means, there's a chance he'll be big, and I think he'll ton up, but you wouldn't back him. Prediction - 100

Swan
Played the Giants once for 159 from 37 possessions and 5 goals. He's been playing forward a bit recently and the Pies are going to bounce back hard. Expect another haul (maybe on 3 goals though) and well over 30 disposals for another big score. It's a twilight game so Swanny won't be falling asleep either. Prediction - 130

Pendlebury
Last week was a let down but it's still hard to ignore Pendles' recent form. Against the Giants, he'll likely be tagged. However, the Pies will bounce back from last week's shocking display and Pendles will benefit. The tag is the only thing keeping him below Swan. Plus, he's back at the MCG this week, the ground he had the 153 and 133 at. Prediction - 120

Selwood
27 points in a quarter before being stretchered off is probably one of Selwood's better performances against the Saints. He doesn't like close attention and they give it to him each time they play. His form is great at the moment but we can't forget that the Fremantle game in amongst this form patch. Could he be demolished by a tag again? Too risky. Prediction - 100

Barlow
Barlow's last two weeks have been poor in terms of DT output, yet he still gets tons. Super consistent and super safe! His career record against the Crows is good with scores of 128, 138, 108, 101, 90, 118. He also has a great record at Subi with 7 straight tons and 12 of his last 13. Prediction - 110

Griffen
Griff bounced back last week but 1 ton from 11 attempts against the Eagles makes him a no for this week. The Eagles haven't been tagging of late so expect a second ton from Griff but I don't see it being huge. Prediction - 105

O'Keefe
ROK was subbed off last week but still score ok. His last game against the Tigers was poor in a Sydney loss but the Swans will win and ROK should be good. Form is hard to ignore but there are better options. Prediction - 105

Cotchin
Cotch is back but the Swans are always a hard task. His record against them is actually pretty handy but the SCG is a very difficult place to go into and score well. Don't expect anything great (but still play him over T. Mitch). Prediction - 95

The verdict:



1. Swan (130)
2. Pendlebury (120)
3. Ablett (115)
4. Johnson (125)*
5. Priddis (115)
6. Barlow (110)
*So risky that, even though I think he'll go big, he sits below players with lower predictions than his.

Requests:

Murphy - Requested by dtfreak
Last 3: 93, 64, 68 (75 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 92, 129 (111 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 92, 130 (111 avg)

Last week, Murphy showed some more confidence since returning from his broken jaw. I still don't have confidence in him though. Last year, the Suns beat the Blues and Murphy was tagged by Stanley. I'm not saying the Suns will win again (not saying they won't, either) but expect Stanley to tag again after he was assigned to Swan last week. Not looking good for Murph. Prediction - 85

Beams - Requested by pommyadam
Last 3: 134, 80 (107 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 113 (113 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 80, 113, 119 (104 avg)

If he's really back, Beams will be good this week. However, there have to be a couple of concerns. The Giants will likely tag him (why not? he's a damaging player who was good last week!) and we don't know if Beams is 100% match fit. A strong tag will be a true test. If he gets through it unscathed, he'll probably find a spot in my team next week... Prediction - 100

Johnson - Requested by pommyadam
Last 3: 156, 129, 101 (129 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 98, 72, 77 (82 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 156, 94, 99 (116 avg)

First off, let me say that I completely forgot to look at Stevie J this week and I'm glad someone requested him! :-[
After some time off, Stevie J brought us a huge 156. Unfortunately, he also earned himself another week off. Now he's back again and has scores of 92 (his first game of the season so we can let it slide), 144, 129, and 156 after weeks off this year. Basically, he's a machine when well rested. Now, his record against the Saints is horrid. He has 6 straight games under the ton against them and only 2 tons from his 15 attempts. The last team he played against whom he has a bad record was the Brisbane Lions, after a week off, for 129. The time before that? Against the Power, after a week off, for 144. Holy shower if that ain't a sign of things to come! Obviously, he's a massive risk, but his season average is over 120 so you'd do pretty well just captaining him whenever he plays. Doesn't beat Swan but could be HUGE! Prediction - 125*

Montagna - Requested by essendon2
Last 3: 140, 64, 117 (107 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 100, 45, 99 (81 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 111, 27 (69 avg)

Joey threw a spanner into the works last week by bucking the trend and scoring well against a team which he's had recent struggles. Now he comes up against the Cats who, in general, he's been good against, but has shown his bad side too. That 45 was sub affected, but not because on injured. After three awful quarters, Joey was subbed for playing poorly... Aside from that, he has 6 tons in his last 9 against the Cats, with the other three being that 45, a 99, and a 91. Unfortunately, the 45, 99, and 91 were all in a row and it looks like the Cats have worked out how to slow him of late. Plus, he's way too inconsistent for me. Note, he hasn't played at Kardinia since 2004 so those numbers are redundant. Prediction - 95

Masten - Requested by essendon2
Last 3: 134, 91, 112 (112 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 120, 77, 57 (85 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 106, 76, 82 (88 avg)

Since the bye, Masten's 4 from 5 for tons with some solid scores (and a disappointing score) in his last 3. A 120 against the Doggies earlier in the year is also nice. Add to that he's 1 for 2 at Etihad this year and he looks like an interesting prospect. He'll have to show me a lot more before I consider bringing him into my team or captaining him though. Still, should hit another ton. Prediction - 105

T.Mitchell - Requested by ADEZ
Last 3: 74, 113, 104 (97 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: N/A
Last 3 at SCG: 113, 89, 98 (100 avg)

The last two games, Tommy Mitchell has been on 42 at 3QT. Fortunately, in each game, the Swans had a comfortable lead and he moved from the forward flank to the midfield for big 4th quarters. If the Swans thump the Tigers (possible but not likely), he'll score well. He's had two good scores at the SCG (considering the 98 was in 3 quarters) from 3 attempts so a game with lots of mid time will mean a ton. However, if the game is close, the key midfielders for the Swans will steal Mitchell's mid time and result in a lower score. I think he's slowing down... Prediction - 85

Redden - Requested by Windigo
Last 3: 112, 74, 95 (94 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 121, 129, 95 (115 avg)
Last 3 at AAMI: 121, 95, 92 (103 avg)

Redden is out of form this year and not someone you should have in your fantasy teams. Regardless, if you do have him, he comes up against his second favourite team this week. Against the Power, he's 3 for 4 in tons over his career with an average of 114. At AAMI, he has a 121, two 95s, and a 92 for a career average of 101. Clearly, he has no problem playing against the Power or over in Adelaide. Hard to say he'll so particularly well though, given his form. Prediction - 105

Boyd - Requested by smoothM24
Last 3: 90, 152, 112 (118 avg)
Last 3 against WCE: 80, 116, 126 (107 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 152, 112, 144 (136 avg)

Boyd scored poorly against Melbourne because that's what he always does. Don't take it to mean he's poor, it means he's still Boyd. The good thing about this is that, if he really is still Boyd, he'll do well this week. He scored 80 against the Eagles earlier in the year when he was very much out of touch. However, before then, he has 4 straight tons and 7 in the last 8. Plus, he's at Etihad, where all of his tons for the year have come. His prediction would earn him a spot on the top 5 list, but the risks associated with him (is he really 100% right now?) void him from being an option. Prediction - 115*

Rockliff - Requested by jacksonmcguire
Last 3: 120, 134, 86 (113 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 69, 121, 87 (92 avg)
Last 3 at AAMI: 69, 68, 87 (75 avg)

Two good weeks in a row are not enough to consider captaining Rocky. He's played the Power three times in his career for two poor scores and a good one. The poor scores have both come at AAMI where he's 0 for 3 in his career. Last time they play, Thomas Jonas (who?) tagged him to just 16 disposals. Not for me. Prediction - 80

Priddis - Requested by Toga
Last 3: 116, 82, 120 (106 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 124, 95, 150 (123 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 106, 103, 17 (75 avg)

Great find, Toga. Priddis has been quite good since the bye with only that 82 as sub-ton. His record against the Dogs isn't that flash before the 150 but the last three say good things. Better yet, his record at Etihad is excellent once you remove the 17 (was concussed). Excluding that score, he's had 6 tons in his last 8 there with the two sub 100s being 95 and 98. The 95 was against the Bulldogs, but the 150 he had against them was also at Etihad. With the way he's been performing recently, Priddis will likely cop a tag but I don't think it'll do a heap. Welcome to my top 5, Priddis! Prediction - 115

S. Selwood - Requested by essendon2
Last 3: 102, 124, 135 (120 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 119, 98, 79 (99 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 102, 124, 79 (102 avg)

Good to see Scooter is finally back. A lot of the Eagles have enjoyed some post-bye DT form (although the actual team hasn't gone too well in the win column) and Scooter will be looking to join them. Slightly less impressive history against the Dogs when compared to Priddis but still decent. The same can be said for his Etihad form. Should score well if 100%. Prediction - 105

[essendon2]

Can I request Montagna and Masten please ;D

[LaHug]

Can I request Montagna and Masten please ;D

Just doing some others I got via PM while the thread was mysteriously locked. Will do these too :)

[ADEZ]

would apreciate tom mitchell :) thanks

[its me lads]

Hard to take the C off of GAJ after his stellar game last week but stats don't usually lie.

Let's go Swanny!

[Ricochet]

Seriously considering Stanton  :o
That 70 was when Bateman played on him and the other poor score is injury affected like LH said

[Windigo]

From memory, my main man Redden has a fairly good record against Port.

Can you do him please.

[Adamant]

Swanny for sure. 8)

[smoothM24]

Apparently Boyd is back from his checkbone. Can you do him please

[pommyadam]

From memory, my main man Redden has a fairly good record against Port.

people have him?
or are you considering a Cotchin alternative?
for the record, your memory serves you right, 115 av of his last 3, and 114.3 over his career (4 games though)

top work once again, but forgetting SJ makes me laugh a little (did you think he was still banned?)

edit: thinking Pendles with Barlow vice, Curnow headed to Gaj gives me nightmares (after what he did to Stanton after i C'd him)

[jacksonmcguire]

Can I request Rocky? Cheers.

[LaHug]

I'll do everyone's requests shortly.

top work once again, but forgetting SJ makes me laugh a little (did you think he was still banned?)

edit: thinking Pendles with Barlow vice, Curnow headed to Gaj gives me nightmares (after what he did to Stanton after i C'd him)

I just completely blanked (probabaly because I didn't need to do him last week so didn't think about this week).

Don't have Swan...?

[j959]

cheers huggy bear!  ;)

[Toga]

Nice work LH!

Interested what you have to say about Priddis if you have time. :)

[essendon2]

Boyd and Scooter please mate ;)