LaHug's Captains - Round 17

[LaHug]

I happily do this every week, free of charge. However, if you are feeling generous and would like to thank me, please make a donation to my Cancer Research and Awareness Pledge: http://www.everydayhero.com.au/william_huggett

STEVIE J! After 3 straight weeks of the curse, Mr. Suspension broke it with a huge 156. In fact, my whole top 5 performed. Let's see if I can make it two weeks in a row!

I'm back again for the third straight year of well researched captains advice!!!
For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. And remember, if you have any requests, just ask!

The facts:

Gibbs
Last 3: 78, 60, 119 (86 avg)
Last 3 against North: 74, 144, 115 (111 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 78, 123, 93 (98 avg)

Mitchell
Last 3: 56, 127, 100 (94 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 125, 103, 128 (119 avg)
Last 3 at Aurora: 100, 102, 88 (97 avg)

Griffen
Last 3: 95, 86, 136 (106 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 112, 105, 109 (109 avg)
Last 3 at Aurora: 96 (96 avg)

Stanton
Last 3: 107, 126, 103 (112 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 51, 93 (72 avg)
Last 3 at Skoda: 93 (93 avg)

Ablett
Last 3: 106, 109, 136 (117 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 190, 97, 122 (136 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 109, 119, 135 (121 avg)

Swan
Last 3: 106, 63, 73 (114 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 118 (118 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 118 (118 avg)

Pendlebury
Last 3: 153, 133, 108 (131 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 59, 124 (92 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 124 (124 avg)

Ebert
Last 3: 87, 135, 137 (120 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 125, 73, 79 (92 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 135, 99, 98 (111 avg)

Rockliff
Last 3: 134, 86, 63 (94 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 125, 119, 130 (125 avg)
Last 3 at TIO: N/A

Barlow
Last 3: 102, 111, 124 (112 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 122, 109, 101 (111 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 120, 101, 98 (106 avg)

Selwood
Last 3: 126, 128, 38 (97 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 113, 106, 84 (101 avg)
Last 3 at AAMI: 75, 106, 84 (88 avg)

O'Keefe
Last 3: 102, 128, 116 (115 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 142, 68, 111 (107 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 142, 68, 73 (94 avg)

The thoughts:

Gibbs
No way in hell you're captaining a guy coming off a 78 and a 60, but Gibbs' numbers against North are enticing. Last year, he had a poor 74 but, if you look past that, you see a 144, 115, and 119. The potential's definitely there but it depends on which Gibbs shows up. Prediction - 95

Mitchell
Started the year well but Sammy Mitchell is clearly a shell of his former DT self. His form is inconsistent but his record against the Bulldogs is hard to look past. He has 125, 103, 128, and 112 in his past 4, not to mention his 130/135 double in 2007. He's also had his fair share of big scores in Launceston over the years. Too risky but I like him this week. Prediction - 115

Griffen
Two weeks ago, I brought the Griff into my team and talked him up to all of you... he has given an 86 and a 95 since. Still, this week he comes up against the Hawks who don't tend to tag. His record against them reflects that so, coupled with his form this year, he should do very well. He's only played at Launceston once and it was all the way back in 2008, but players tend to do ok there. Prediction - 115

Stanton
Last time he played the Giants, Stanton had a 37 point first quarter before injury struck. A fair assumption would be that he was comfortably looking at a 120+ game. However, in his only full game against the Giants, he scored a dismal 93. He will certainly be tagged this week and, with Watson missing, will likely cop more than the usual attention. He's learning to overcome tags but I think he'll be slowed. Still, recent form suggests a ton so I'll stick with that. Prediction - 105

Ablett
History has a habit of repeating itself and we saw it last week with Jackson containing GAJ to a mediocre 106. That's back to back scores under 110 for GAJ. The plus side is that, if history is to repeat itself again, we could be looking at a very big score. Ablett had 190 against the Pies last year!!! A poor 97 in the year before can be ignored because that's the only score under 100 he's had against the Pies in his last 9. Amongst those scores are a 134, a 122, and, of course, that sweet 190. Probably don't expect the 190 again but you'd have to back a good score. Plus, it's at Metricon, a ground that GAJ is 7 for 7 at this season. Prediction - 130

Swan
A huge start to last week's game before disappearing after it passed his bed time. Fortunately, this week's game is a twilight game, so Swan won't be dozing off in the second half. He didn't play them last year but had a 118 the first time around. It's Swan vs. the Suns, expect something good. Prediction - 120

Pendlebury
Who'd have thought that Pendles would be averaging under 1 point less that Swan at this stage of the year? And he's more expensive now, too! The biggest thing is that he's in better form and scoring more consistently than Swan. When Swan scored 118 against the Suns, Pendles had 124. The second game is deceiving because Pendles had that 59 by halftime before being subbed with that knee fracture he had. In the battle of him vs. Ablett, Pendles has the higher high score and the higher low score for the year. He has a 5 game average of 130 and a 3 game of 131 (compared to 122 and 117). Prediction - 130

Ebert
Last week's dismal performance finally brought an end to Ebert's amazing post-bye form. His owners will hope that it comes back this week and it may well happen. Against the Saints, Port are favourites to win which helps already. Last year, he had a 125 on them. Plus, he's had two games at Etihad this year for a 117 average. I'm expecting him to bounce back. Prediction - 110

Rockliff
As frustratingly up and down Rocky is, it's very hard to ignore his record against the Dees. 5 straight tons including 3 that are 125+ is pretty damn good. The best part is, when he's stuck forward against them, he kicks goals. It's really a win-win and I don't see Rocky going under 100. The one flaw is that it's very hard for teams to kick large numbers of goals in Darwin. He'll absolutely need to get a lot of the ball for a really big score. Prediction - 115

Barlow
Mickey B is 4 for 4 against the Tigers and looks to add his 5th ton against them this week. He's only had one really big score this year and is more a consistent scorer than a big numbers guy (which, frankly, is why everyone should have him and why I'm annoyed I don't). Look for another healthy but not massive ton. Prediction - 110

Selwood
Over the last few weeks, Selwood has done what we expected him to do. He's smashed the teams he usually smashes and gone quiet when he plays those that target him. Against the Crows, he usually doesn't go huge but has consistently handy numbers. Over his career, he's gone: 118, 118, 104, 104, 118, 84, 106, 113. That's some awesome consistency there so expect it again. Those who have the luxury trades available, he's probably worth bringing in this week. Prediction - 110

O'Keefe
ROK just keeps pumping out tons and is yet another midfielder that I wish I had but don't (what I would do to have the luxury to swap Cotch and Lids for ROK and Barlow...). He had a handy 142 against the Eagles last year at this very same venue. I'm not saying it'll happen again, but I'm also not saying that it won't. His recent form against the Eagles is actually good if you take out that 68. He had a 110 on them in 2009 before his last three. Should have another good week. Prediction - 110

The verdict:



1. Pendlebury (130)
2. Ablett (130)
3. Swan (120)
4. Griffen/Mitchell/Rockliff (115)*
5. Barlow/O'Keefe/Selwood (110)*

*I've grouped these two sets, respectively, because they have a lot in common. The group at number 4 all have the potential to score higher than the group at number 5 (and should, given the stats) but are much riskier with a solid chance to screw you up with a sub 100. The group at number 5 are much less likely to disappoint you (well, Selwood could because he's full of surprises) but are also less likely to score a really big captains score. Still, none of that should matter because most (if not all) of you should have my top 3 in your teams!!!

Requests:

Ball - Requested by Jigsaw
Last 3: 107, 89, 83 (93 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 122 (122 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 122, 63, 91 (92 avg)

Missed last year's game with injury but had a 122 against the Suns in their first season. He's scored 4 tons from 7 attempts this year but there's really nothing to say that he'll score particularly well. Prediction - 105

Beams - Requested by Jigsaw
Last 3: 80 (80 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 101 (101 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: N/A

He only scored 80 last week from 25 disposals. His kick to handball ratio (10:15) didn't help his cause, nor did only 2 marks and 4 tackles. It was his first game back so we have to give him a little slack. However, in his one game against GC (didn't play them in 2011), he only had 101 points from 32 disposals. Again, his kick to handball ratio (12:20) hurts and he only had 3 marks and 3 tackles. We know he can score big but he'll need to show he has the confidence, speed, and fitness to rack up extra marks and tackles before I back him. Prediction - 95

Montagna - Requested by essendon2
Last 3: 64, 117, 78 (86 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 72, 78, 102 (84 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 64, 113, 89 (89 avg)

Last week, I said this:

His past form against Carlton's not great and he has an unfortunate habit of having his past form reappear this season (see poor scores against the Tigers and North).

Sadly, I was right. Again, his past form against Port's not great so expect another poor score. Prediction - 80

Mundy - Requested by essendon2
Last 3: 113, 116, 124 (118 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 75, 130, 102 (102 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 65, 102, 75 (81 avg)

Yet another player that's benefiting from post-bye form. Mundy's 3 games since the bye average a healthy 118. He's had great form against the Tigers before this year's game. He had 4 straight tons and 5 from the past 6. That 75 is unappealing but, if you take it as just being a blip, he looks good this week. Prediction - 110

Cotchin - Requested by Chelskiman
Last 3: 114, 100, 85 (100 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 84, 101, 112 (99 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 85, 71, 99 (85 avg)

Two tons in a row after 8 straight under 100 is nice for those that kept him (and nicer for those that brought him in). Now he looks for his third against a team he's not too bad against. That 84 was earlier this year in his streak of shockers but he had three straight tons before that. Disturbingly, he's sitting at 5 straight scores under 100 at the MCG which comes after 12 straight tons there. I'm backing him to break that poor streak... just. No risk of him getting the Crowley tag as it always goes to Deledio. In the very unlikely chance that it does go to him, expect about 10-15 points less than what he'd get otherwise. Prediction - 100

Jack - Requested by Windigo
Last 3: 79, 91, 86 (85 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 118, 118, 101 (112 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 118, 118, 105 (114 avg)

A real tough one here. Jack has three straight scores under 100 against his name and comes up against the Eagles who are huge tightarses in terms of DT points this season. The pluses are just as clear, with two 118s in his last two games against the Eagles at this same ground (also three straight tons against the Eagles and three straight at Subi). The Eagles have allowed a couple of tons for most teams so ROK, Jack, and Tommy Mitchell are all chances to pull through and score well. Current form bodes less well for Jack than others though. Prediction - 100

[Jigsaw]

Nice work mate.

I have a request that's out of the ordinary, but after some number digging, thought he might be worth a look at any way:

Luke Ball

Also; Dayne Beams.

Cheers.

[essendon2]

I reckon I'll be backing GAJ in this week, Swan's not far behind.

Could I request Montagna and Mundy (again) please? :P

[Ricochet]

Locking in GAJ unless Black and Moloney don't return for Brissie, then I'll seriously look at Rocky

[Chelskiman]

Just interested on what you think Cotchin will get if he gets the Crowley tag and what he will get if he doesn't get the Crowley tag.

[KoopKicka]

Cheers LH, seriously considering Ebert actually.

[Nige]

I have decided Pendles is now my perma-captain.

[Mr.Craig]

Fair to say my captain will be playing in the GC vs Coll game.

Just a matter of who...

[LF]

Just interested on what you think Cotchin will get if he gets the Crowley tag and what he will get if he doesn't get the Crowley tag.

Deledio always gets the Crowley tag

[LaHug]

I'll get to those requests now!

Just interested on what you think Cotchin will get if he gets the Crowley tag and what he will get if he doesn't get the Crowley tag.

Deledio always gets the Crowley tag

luv's right on this one. Means I'll be benching Lids this week (the luxury of T Mitch being so good). I'll still have a look at him for you.

Fair to say my captain will be playing in the GC vs Coll game.

Just a matter of who...

Without a doubt. By far the most DT relevant game of the round (and probably season). Annoying that I'll miss the end (and final scores) with basketball and then going out. Won't get to see them until very late on Saturday or even Sunday!

[Adamant]

[LaHug]

I reckon I'll be backing GAJ in this week, Swan's not far behind.

Could I request Montagna and Mundy (again) please? :P

Nice work mate.

I have a request that's out of the ordinary, but after some number digging, thought he might be worth a look at any way:

Luke Ball

Also; Dayne Beams.

Cheers.

Just interested on what you think Cotchin will get if he gets the Crowley tag and what he will get if he doesn't get the Crowley tag.

Done guys.

[nrich102]

Locking in GAJ

[Windigo]

Kezza Jack?

Please.  :)

[PowerBug]

Well, last week was Ablett so that means it's Swan for me this weekend, and Ablett as VC. Nothing will change my mind, not even Stanton breaking the DT record.