LaHug's Captains - Round 12

[LaHug]

I happily do this every week, free of charge. However, if you are feeling generous and would like to thank me, please make a donation to my Cancer Research and Awareness Pledge: http://www.everydayhero.com.au/william_huggett

Right in the middle of exams so apologies if it's crap. I might add a weather update on Friday if I remember (feel free to remind me!)

I'm back again for the third straight year of well researched captains advice!!!
For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. And remember, if you have any requests, just ask!

The facts:

Murphy
Last 3: 100, 70, 73 (81 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 114, 97, 112 (108 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 70, 105, 53 (76 avg)

Mitchell
Last 3: 66, 103, 102 (90 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 124, 96, 89 (103 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 109, 125, 96 (110 avg)

Deledio
Last 3: 102, 53, 124 (93 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 115, 82, 105 (101 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 53, 124, 63 (80 avg)

Cotchin
Last 3: 70, 99, 92 (87 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 111, 84, 86 (94 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 99, 92, 62 (84 avg)

Barlow
Last 3: 118, 149, 123 (130 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 99, 95 (97 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 149, 100, 122 (124 avg)

Watson
Last 3: 77, 85, 122 (95 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 94, 115 (105 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 119, 112, 54 (95 avg)

Stanton
Last 3: 52, 149, 144 (115 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 93, 116 (105 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 78, 51, 130 (86 avg)

Ablett
Last 3: 119, 140, 139 (133 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 160, 81, 103 (115 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 143, 81, 115 (113 avg)

Cornes
Last 3: 114, 74, 103 (97 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 116, 97 (107 avg)
Last 3 at Skoda: 97 (97 avg)

Swan
Last 3: 130, 130, 85 (115 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 117, 96, 157 (123 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 109, 123, 117 (116 avg)

Pendles
Last 3: 117, 95, 95 (102 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 133, 87, 101 (107 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 121, 124, 97 (114 avg)

Boyd
Last 3: 144, 96, 65 (102 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 94, 89, 107 (97 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 144, 65, 108 (106 avg)

The thoughts:

Murphy
Been playing horribly for most of the year so you can't pick him as captain. However, his record at Hawthorn is very enticing with those three scores and a 112 before that. Should be good for back to back tons. Prediction - 105

Mitchell
Averaging a flat 100 this year and was pretty poor in his game against the Dees. He had a 124 before those last three against the Blues making two 124s from his last 4 against them. The other two aren't that enticing though. His record at Etihad is pretty decent so that's in his favour. Still, I wouldn't. Also, beware of the Curnow tag! Prediction - 100

Deledio
Yet another underperforming premium that we have to hope is refreshed from the bye. Lids has a good record against the Crows with four tons and a 99 in his last seven. Serviceable but, again, not a captain option. Prediction - 105

Cotchin
Five in a row under 100 makes Cotchin owners pull their hair out. Will he bounce back? He has a nice 111 against the Crows next to his name but that's it for this week. Nothing else going for him. Prediction - 95

Barlow
Barlow's in great form but the really exciting thing is his form at Subiaco. 8 of his last 9, 11 of his last 13, and 20 times in his short career has he tonned up in Perth. Expect his 0/2 record against the Lions to become 1/3. Prediction - 115

Watson
Jobe has two poor weeks in a row and Gold Coast aren't the pushovers they used to be. Don't expect anything huge. He does love Etihad and the roof will protect him from any Melbourne rain. That's a big plus. Prediction - 105

Stanton
What an arse! Many of us brought him in last week for an awful effort. Still, under the roof against the Suns (who don't usually do an outside tag to my knowledge), he should be back to his best. I'm trusting him for one more week. Prediction - 115

Ablett
He's scored tons in 10 of his 11 games this year and we all know his recent form is awesome. Weather won't be a factor either. Couple that with his 160 from last year and you're looking good. 7 of his last 8 against the Bombers are also tons. Looking like a great choice again. Prediction - 125

Cornes
His form is down as of late but it's still great. He comes up against the GWS Taggers this week but, as a tagger himself, he might avoid any attention at all. Should be good. Prediction - 110

Swan
Back to back 130s for Swanny and we can all consider him for perma captain again. He's Ablett's key competition each week and his record against the Bulldogs is awesome. His 2010 record against them was particularly amazing but, outside of that, it's much less spectacular. Etihad is the best advantage for Swan this week as he's 5 in a row there, and 11 of his last 12. Of those 12, 6 are over 130 and many are much higher. Prediction - 130

Pendlebury
Basically just Swan jnr. this week. Great record against the Dogs and should be sweet. Prediction - 125

Boyd
A bit of a mixed bag, Boyd has some poor scores against the Pies but 5 in a row over the 100 mark before that 89. His last game was a juicy 144 which could be his catalyst for the year. We all know that he's always loved Etihad so I like his chances this week. Prediction - 110

The verdict:

1. Swan (130)
2. Ablett (125)
3. Pendlebury (125)
4. Stanton (115)
5. Barlow (115)

Requests:

Rockliff - Requested by pommyadam
Last 3: 67, 83, 114 (88 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 91, 122, 94 (102 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 73, 91, 122 (95 avg)

Rocky has a good record against the Dockers and they were one of the few teams he didn't suck against last year. Still, it's only a 102 average over three games (even with the 122 in there) and there's always a chance he'll play a lot forward. Plus, with Black getting less tags these days, Rocky's always a chance to draw the Crowley tag. No for me. Prediction - 90

Griffen - Requested by smoothM24
Last 3: 166, 91, 80 (112 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 149, 109, 125 (128 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 91, 129, 103 (108 avg)

Realise those stats, appreciate how great his last three against Collingwood are, take in the fact that he had a big 166 last time, then step back and realise he's still not a consistent DTer. Boyd didn't play with that 166 to take away possessions from him. Yes, the numbers all say he should be great! No, I wouldn't risk it ever. Prediction - 115

Gibbs - Requested by Toga
Last 3: 123, 93, 84 (100 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 109, 112, 92 (104 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 93, 90, 118 (100 avg)

Last week, Gibbs had a handy 123. His record against Hawthorn is handy with 92 being his lowest in the last 5 years and averaging 109 in that span. He is, however, 0 from 2 at Etihad this year. Probably going to score well but not captain numbers. Prediction - 100

Franklin - Requested by Windigo
Last 3: 60, 108, 81 (83 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 115, 92, 97 (101 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 92, 115, 117 (108 avg)

Buddy is playing very poorly this year. Will the bye have made a difference? His last three against the Blues aren't bad and he hasn't played at Etihad since 2011! No chance I'd back him but the stats say he should do alright. Pity the form says otherwise. Prediction - 90

[pommyadam]

so tempted to request the likes of Jelwood, SJ, and Scooter, but then realise they all have the bye :P
coulda sworn Carrots was back this week, will that be a better tag than Curnow (considering he doesn't tag unless required)

can i request a smokey like Rockliff (subject to actually playing)

top work, as always

[smoothM24]

Could you do Griffen please Lahug

[Mr.Craig]

You just concentrate on those exams Huggy. ;)

GAJ has been awesome but it might be the week to stay calm.

[Toga]

If you have time I'd like to request Gibbs vs Hawthorn LH. If you're too busy, don't fret! :)

[Adamant]

Cheers LH. :)

Swanny for me yet again. So reliable.

Only captained Ablett once this year. :o Swanny every other week...

[its me lads]

Cheers LH

Alot of people jumping back on Swanny, I'm leaning towards sticking with GAJ or now though.

[LaHug]

I'll look at requests if I get a chance tomorrow or maybe even Friday. I'm tempted to just flip a coin to choose between GAJ and Swan.

[Chelskiman]

Still going with GAJ.  He's served me well since about Round 5, so I have no reason to jump off now.  GAJ captain, Swan vice.  No worries.

[Windigo]

Interested to see how Buddy goes against Hawks...  ;)

[Chelskiman]

Interested to see how Buddy goes against Hawks...  ;)

Maybe next year.

[powersuperkents]

Tough choice this week.. Swan is playing in the afternoon so I feel I should play him but I don't want to stray away from Ablett. I will probably give Swan a second chance but then again Essendon don't really tag or restrict players so Gaj could go even higher this week whilst Swan play Bulldogs who are a shower heap. I'll most likely go Ablett because Lower and Picken

[LaHug]

Tough choice this week.. Swan is playing in the afternoon so I feel I should play him but I don't want to stray away from Ablett. I will probably give Swan a second chance but then again Essendon don't really tag or restrict players so Gaj could go even higher this week whilst Swan play Bulldogs who are a shower heap. I'll most likely go Ablett because Lower and Picken

Have you ever heard of Heath Hocking?

[pommyadam]

risk being burnt AGAIN by Stanton, or whack it on Gaj

tempted to keep the faith, GC don't tag
but if they do, it'll be Wilkinson, but will he go to Stants or Jobe?

[Windigo]

Interested to see how Buddy goes against Hawks...  ;)

Maybe next year.

Haha, whoops.  :P