LaHug's Captains - Round 11

[LaHug]

I happily do this every week, free of charge. However, if you are feeling generous and would like to thank me, please make a donation to my Cancer Research and Awareness Pledge: http://www.everydayhero.com.au/william_huggett

Busy with exam study so just looked at the big names this week. If they looked crap, I just didn't bother writing about them. Make sure to request anyone missing that you want to see and I'll do my best!

I'm back again for the third straight year of well researched captains advice!!!
For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. And remember, if you have any requests, just ask!

The facts:

Watson
Last 3: 85, 122, 119 (109 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 98, 100, 73 (90 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 122, 109, 143 (125 avg)

Stanton
Last 3: 149, 144, 78 (124 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 72, 175, 111 (119 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 144, 114, 142 (133 avg)

Murphy
Last 3: 70, 73, 105 (83 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 163, 114, 119 (132 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 124, 115, 84 (108 avg)

Johnson
Last 3: 94, 144, 105 (114 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 150 (150 avg)
Last 3 at Skoda: N/A

Ablett
Last 3: 140, 139, 135 (138 avg)
Last 3 against North: 148, 146, 108 (134 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 135, 101, 118 (118 avg)

Pendlebury
Last 3: 95, 95, 127 (106 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 104, 136, 116 (119 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 95, 127, 108 (110 avg)

Swan
Last 3: 130, 85, 90 (102 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 142, 150, 84 (125 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 85, 90, 120 (98 avg)

The thoughts:

Watson
Only 3 tons from 14 attempts makes it an automatic no for me. The highest of those was only 116 all the way back in '06. Jobe's in decent form though and looks good at the MCG. Expect a mediocre ton. Prediction - 100

Stanton
Two blemishes all year - an injury game and the first game back from injury. Outside of that, Stanton's scoring as good as anyone this year with a higher ceiling. Three scores above 140 for the year including two straight mean that, if you can afford another round 13 bye, this guy might be worth bringing in. He's priced 11 points below his average so worth looking at. In terms of captaincy, that 175 is mighty tempting, and 5 of his last 7 against the Blues are tons. My only fear is that Mick might try to slow him down. Prediction - 130

Murphy
That form is awful. Two scores in a row under 75. You cannot captain this guy under any circumstances! This is unfortunate because his record against Essendon is amazing! Those last three are backed up by a 118 in the game before. Plus, 84 is his lowest at the MCG this year where he has 3 out of 4 tons and looks much more comfortable. If it weren't for his form, he'd be worth a look. Prediction - 110

Johnson
Last week didn't prove so much that Stevie J doesn't kill bad teams, rather that Gold Coast are not such a bad team after all. Three amazing quarters from the opponents were enough to slow this gun! That doesn't matter though because GWS are much worse than the Suns. Look for Stevie J to bounce back and score huge. Prediction - 125

Ablett
I should never have doubted that little master. 140, 139, 135, 134 are his last four scores. Played North twice as a Sun for 148 and 146. Better yet, North don't even tag. I'm sorry I ever doubted him and led you, my faithful followers, astray. Lock him in for the foreseeable future unless he does something to upset me. Prediction - 140

Pendlebury
Didn't play against the Dees last year but Pendles has 104, 136, 116, and 147 in his last four against them. He's had his fair share of big scores before so don't be surprised if he goes big this week. Current form is questionable with only one ton in his last four this year. Prediction - 120

Swan
Swannie bounced back last week after two straight horrible scores. Either the NAF^TM (Night Adjustment Factor) is not a thing, or he played so well last week he'd have scored a 150 in the day (honestly, could well be the latter). Regardless, this game is in the sunshine! It's against the second worst team in the comp and a team Swan scored 142, 150, 84, 130, and 133 against. Certainly makes him an excellent option this week, but not quite the best. Prediction - 130

The verdict:

1. Ablett (140)
2. Swan (130)
3. Stanton (130)
4. Johnson (125)
5. Pendlebury (120)

Requests:

Jack - Requested by luvfooty
Last 3: 102, 99, 138 (113 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 83, 92, 73 (83 avg)
Last 3 at AAMI: 72, 95, 73 (80 avg)

Scoring pretty well this season, Jack has obviously improved from last year. Still, there's nothing to suggest a spectacular score. Most of the teams he score around 90 against last year, he's scored around 100 this year. Prediction - 100

J. Selwood - Requested by luvfooty
Last 3: 83, 75, 69 (76 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 62 (62 avg)
Last 3 at Skoda: N/A

Selwood's in awful DT form and, to make matters worse, GWS tend to tag. They'll shut him down for another paltry score. Prediction - 75

S. Selwood - Requested by smoothM24
Last 3: 135, 81, 71 (96 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 106, 92, 39 (79 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 79, 102, 98 (93 avg)

Scooter, in a way somewhat similar to Swan, bounced back after two poor weeks with a nice score. He was handy for a 106 against the Saints last year but doesn't show any promise to go big. There's always a chance with this guy as I find he's pretty unpredictable with his scoring. Going to shoot down the middle on this one. Prediction - 105

Swallow - Requested by pinochio
Last 3: 110, 104, 82 (99 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 103, 95, 88 (95 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 103, 88 (96 avg)

Swallow started the year with such promise and looked like he was set for a solid year of DT! He followed up his good start with four scores under 100 from five games before bouncing back in his last two. Hard to pick what will happen with this guy but what we do know is that Gold Coast aren't the pushovers they've been in the past. Add in the fact that Swallow's only got one ton from three tries against the Suns and you can't back him. I still think he'll be decent but there are way better options. Prediction - 105

Bartel - Requested by Jazzoskies
Last 3: 119, 112, 119 (117 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 115 (115 avg)
Last 3 at Skoda: N/A

While the Giants manage to tag key players very successfully (see Gibbs/Murphy last week) there's always a couple of guys that play the perfect role to avoid attention and rack it up against them. Bartel looks like the kind of player that fits into the second category. Plus, his form is awesome! Expect Geelong to pull their fingers out after looking average against the Suns last week. Prediction - 115

Riewoldt - Requested by Adamant
Last 3: 88, 80, 99 (89 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 103, 85, 107 (98 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 88, 80, 123  (97 avg)

Roo is a little bit down on his early season form with three straight scores under 100. Last week was tough because his team was spanked and the week before was a case of two disappointing quarters (one where the Dogs over-possessed and the other after copping a knock). Basically, he's the second best forward in the DT comp this year and he comes across a team he loves this week. Five of his last six against the Eagles are tons so expect another. Prediction - 105

Robinson - Requested by Adamant
Last 3: 90, 89, 97 (92 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 39, 102, 56 (66 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 99, 77, 75 (84 avg)

Robbo is in pretty decent form in his last few. However, this week he comes up against a team he's been very inconsistent against. Last year, he had a solid 102 against them early on and then, when his team won, he could only muster 39 (no reason for it either). Can't risk the rollercoaster with better options. Prediction - 80

Douglas - Requested by NigeyS
Last 3: 103, 123, 124 (117 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 62, 62, 84 (69 avg)
Last 3 at AAMI: 103, 124, 73 (100 avg)

Douglas is in great form right now and is having a decent year in general. It's unfortunate that this week he comes up against the Swans. He's played them six times in his career for zero tons. A high of 84 against them and a career average of 57 looks very ugly. His most recent three have been his best three so there is hope for improvement, I just don't a good score happening. The Swans are way too good this year. Prediction - 70

Adams - Requested by Anubis
Last 3: 82, 99, 126 (102 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 52 (52 avg)
Last 3 at Skoda: 99, 93, 78 (90 avg)

Adams is quite the handy young player but there's no way you can back him in this week against the Cats. Out of his 15 games last year, his second lowest score came against them and it wasn't sub affected. He's looking really good at the Showgrounds this year with 99 and 93 from his two appearances. Look for him to do better than last year's effort but probably have one of his lower scores for the year. Prediction - 75

[its me lads]

Cheers LH. GAJ for me.

[LF]

Thanks LaHug great as always
Could you do Jack and the one in horrible form atm Jelwood.
Thanks

[smoothM24]

Cheers LaHug, Scoot Selwood please

[Toga]

I hope Murphy doesn't kill it this week, I was planning on trading him out next week. :-X

Thanks LH, still undecided between GAJ & Swan for me. I'm positive Swannie will have an #OinkFest, just not sure whether he'll outscore the great man.

[Adamant]

Thanks LaHug, will definitely be locking in Swanny as captain.

Can you please have a look at Sammy Mitchell?

[LF]

Thanks LaHug, will definitely be locking in Swanny as captain.

Can you please have a look at Sammy Mitchell?

Um Mitchell has a bye this week lol

[pommyadam]

Stanton or Gaj for me

but will depend on if Carrots comes back or not

[Adamant]

Thanks LaHug, will definitely be locking in Swanny as captain.

Can you please have a look at Sammy Mitchell?

Um Mitchell has a bye this week lol

Haha yeah, I forgot that Hawthorn have the bye. :( Don't have Mitch myself anyway...

[Mr.Craig]

Nice to have so many genuine options.

Now to pick the right one... :-\

[Toga]

Thanks LaHug, will definitely be locking in Swanny as captain.

Can you please have a look at Sammy Mitchell?

Um Mitchell has a bye this week lol

Haha yeah, I forgot that Hawthorn have the bye. :( Don't have Mitch myself anyway...

Your Asians do... The reason for your question? :P

[Adamant]

Thanks LaHug, will definitely be locking in Swanny as captain.

Can you please have a look at Sammy Mitchell?

Um Mitchell has a bye this week lol

Haha yeah, I forgot that Hawthorn have the bye. :( Don't have Mitch myself anyway...

Your Asians do... The reason for your question? :P

Haha yep! :P

[glynman]

Never should have doubted GAJ last week, locking him in this week.

[LaHug]

Done requests guys. Nothing special for any of them, sorry.

[pinochio]

what about andy swallow :)

cheers man, great work as always!