Marc Murphy

[blackrose]

Don't know why he's so down on form... maybe due to his new captaincy role?
Has the annoying round 13 bye, set to go down a fair bit this week (<$500k), and will obviously not be a top 10 midfielder.

What should I / are people doing with him?

[fever]

back him to turn it around. if he hasnt approaching finals you could either ditch him or keep him as a pretty handy M9

[hannebery2rohan]

If it were me, i'd probably cut my losses and scrape together 50-120k and trade him up to a player that's performing. Not sure what it is, he has the tools to become a premium mid, i guess consistency and inability to shake a tag has a lot to do with it.

[tor01doc]

Lowish breakeven this week.

See what he manages.

If he goes OK then suspend judgement as you won't lose money and you'll need him for rounds 11 and 12.

Best time to cut him loose will be after round 12.

[ts_its_me]

I've got him too and i think i'm going to hold onto him until the rest of the team is finished.

And depending on injuries trade him then closer to finals. No point getting rid him now unless your team is full of premiums.

[j959]

backing him in mate ...  :(

with MBRs if you're 'luxury trading' good luck to you!  ;)

you might just trade him to someone else and they have a stinker or worse get injured!
that's the luck of the draw you want to remember it's a marathon and not a sprint ... he's not going that badly ...

[blackrose]

Lowish breakeven this week.

See what he manages.

If he goes OK then suspend judgement as you won't lose money and you'll need him for rounds 11 and 12.

Best time to cut him loose will be after round 12.

136 is a lowish breakeven? I'd be stoked if he got that!


But yeah I still I still don't have Pendles/Jobe so I was thinking of upgrading him to one of them.

Thanks for the help guys!

[sammy123]

i would hold. But pendles/watson are must haves

[thebuddyshow]

I'd keep him. He wouldn't be the worst M8 going around.

Only upgrade him once all other positions are filled

[penskifile]

From what I have seen, he is spending quite a lot of time up forward, which is hurting his scoring. Probably have to hold for now. If he is still not showing much coming towards finals and you can spare the trades, chop him then.

[FactHunt]

I'd keep him. He wouldn't be the worst M8 going around.

Only upgrade him once all other positions are filled

+1

and his finals draw looks pretty reasonable in: Dogs, Tiges, Bombers and Port...

[PICCOLLO]

On the improve but not the player he was. Maybe game plan doesnt suit? Hes also a non contested possy king. These days, the ontestant ball winners are king in SC

[Mat0369]

On the improve but not the player he was. Maybe game plan doesnt suit? Hes also a non contested possy king. These days, the ontestant ball winners are king in SC

Just a random fact for you, he lead Carlton in overall contested possessions last season after missing a chunk of games and was ranked 11th in the AFL for contested possessions per game in 2012 (12.8 per game) and 2011 (12.8 per game again), was 12th in 2010 (9.8 per game and Judd lead the league in CP's per game) and currently sits 45th for this season (9.8 per game). Since 2010 his contested numbers have improved dramatically and he has become both a player that can win it inside and out.

In the past three seasons his disposal per number rank

2010: 25.4 which was 24th in the league (111.7 SC ppg which was good enough for 11th in the league), his % contested is 38.6%
2011: 29.1 which was 7th in the league for disposals per game  (119.6 including finals for the 4th best average in the league), his % contested 44%
2012: 26.2 which was 17th in the league (112.7 average which is 17th in the league), his % contested 48.9%

This year he is averaging 23.7 touches per game, his lowest in the last 3 years, to rank 37th in the league, to average 100.3 which ranks him 49th. His % of CP this season is 41.4%. What I can't find a stat for is disposal efficiency per season. The reason Murph scored so well in 2010 and 2011 is because he used the ball so well, last season when he came back from his injury he was very rusty using the ball in games and his DE was down. This year what is hurting him is that he is not getting enough of the ball and that is due to him being rested up forward for extended periods of time. He is not around the pill enough, so he can't get his hands on it and when he goes into the middle he wins some hard contested clearances. He is effectively being Rockliffed up to this point of the season. It has nothing to do with receiving a tag and more to do with where he is being asked to play.

I have broken down his points per possession so you can see how he has progressed

2010: 4.398
2011: 4.110
2012: 4.302
2013: 4.232

His ppp has dropped since last season but increased since his best fantasy wise. He is able to win the contested ball, spread and then hit up a target which has made him such a dangerous SC scorer in the past. If he starts getting his 26 touches a game again he will get back to that 110+ a game range. I think it will all depend on where he plays the majority of his football. Friday night should be a good indicator.

[specky92]

On the improve but not the player he was. Maybe game plan doesnt suit? Hes also a non contested possy king. These days, the ontestant ball winners are king in SC

Just a random fact for you, he lead Carlton in overall contested possessions last season after missing a chunk of games and was ranked 11th in the AFL for contested possessions per game in 2012 (12.8 per game) and 2011 (12.8 per game again), was 12th in 2010 (9.8 per game and Judd lead the league in CP's per game) and currently sits 45th for this season (9.8 per game). Since 2010 his contested numbers have improved dramatically and he has become both a player that can win it inside and out.

In the past three seasons his disposal per number rank

2010: 25.4 which was 24th in the league (111.7 SC ppg which was good enough for 11th in the league), his % contested is 38.6%
2011: 29.1 which was 7th in the league for disposals per game  (119.6 including finals for the 4th best average in the league), his % contested 44%
2012: 26.2 which was 17th in the league (112.7 average which is 17th in the league), his % contested 48.9%

This year he is averaging 23.7 touches per game, his lowest in the last 3 years, to rank 37th in the league, to average 100.3 which ranks him 49th. His % of CP this season is 41.4%. What I can't find a stat for is disposal efficiency per season. The reason Murph scored so well in 2010 and 2011 is because he used the ball so well, last season when he came back from his injury he was very rusty using the ball in games and his DE was down. This year what is hurting him is that he is not getting enough of the ball and that is due to him being rested up forward for extended periods of time. He is not around the pill enough, so he can't get his hands on it and when he goes into the middle he wins some hard contested clearances. He is effectively being Rockliffed up to this point of the season. It has nothing to do with receiving a tag and more to do with where he is being asked to play.

I have broken down his points per possession so you can see how he has progressed

2010: 4.398
2011: 4.110
2012: 4.302
2013: 4.232

His ppp has dropped since last season but increased since his best fantasy wise. He is able to win the contested ball, spread and then hit up a target which has made him such a dangerous SC scorer in the past. If he starts getting his 26 touches a game again he will get back to that 110+ a game range. I think it will all depend on where he plays the majority of his football. Friday night should be a good indicator.

#burn

[hannebery2rohan]

Very good post Mat. Worth a cheer.