LaHug's Captains - Round 10

[LaHug]

I happily do this every week, free of charge. However, if you are feeling generous and would like to thank me, please make a donation to my Cancer Research and Awareness Pledge: http://www.everydayhero.com.au/william_huggett

Busy week leads to late captains article. But, when the post is this good a read, I think it's worth the wait!

I'm back again for the third straight year of well researched captains advice!!!
For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. And remember, if you have any requests, just ask!

The facts:

Swan
Last 3: 85, 90, 111 (95 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 143, 119, 125 (129 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 143, 125, 79 (116 avg)

Pendlebury
Last 3: 95, 127, 92 (105 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 119, 94, 119 (111 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 119, 119, 135 (124 avg)

Swan
Last 3: 85, 90, 111 (95 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 143, 119, 125 (129 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 143, 125, 79 (116 avg)

Murphy
Last 3: 73, 105, 53 (77 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 94 (94 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 105, 53, 111 (90 avg)

Gibbs
Last 3: 84, 54, 93 (77 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 85 (85 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 90, 118, 141 (116 avg)

Dangerfield
Last 3: 121, 77, 141 (113 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 64, 137, 110 (104 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 110, 69, 81 (87 avg)

Stanton
Last 3: 144, 78, 51 (91 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 89, 112, 87 (96 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 131, 69, 61 (87 avg)

Watson
Last 3: 122, 119, 112 (118 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 131, 109, 96 (112 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 96, 93, 72 (87 avg)

Johnson
Last 3: 144, 105, 136 (128 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 146, 171 (159 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 99, 78, 79 (85 avg)

J. Selwood
Last 3: 75, 69, 101 (82 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 105, 135, 116 (119 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 101, 113, 119 (111 avg)

Ablett
Last 3: 139, 135, 134 (136 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 104, 92 (98 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 127, 126, 108 (120 avg)

Mitchell
Last 3: 103, 102, 104 (103 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 103, 113, 110 (109 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 103, 104, 111 (106 avg)

Deledio
Last 3: 53, 124, 134 (104 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 101, 115, 100 (105 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 83, 78, 115 (92 avg)

The thoughts:

Swan
Swan Watch^TM continues with 119 average in day games and 99 average in night games so far this year. Another night game means he may well score 20 less than he would have under the sun. Outside of this, he has a huge last four against the Lions (143, 119, 125, 122) and he's had the two biggest of those at the Gabba. I would predict 130 but, taking into account the NAF^TM (night adjustment factor), it's gotta be lower. Prediction - 110

Pendlebury
Pendles has a very tasty record against the Lions (119, 94, 119, 129, 135 - going back to 2009) and his best three in the last four years are all at the Gabba. Not afraid of the dark (well, yet to be proven), Pendles looks to be the top Pie this week. Prediction - 120

Murphy
His one game against the Giants last year wasn't captainworthy and Murphy's form is awful right now. Pass. Prediction - 90

Gibbs
He had a disappointing return last week and he also wasn't great against the Giants last year. Pass. Prediction - 90

Dangerfield
Super inconsistent, Danger can give you an awesome 140+, a weekend destroying sub-80, a good 120+, a frustrating sub-100, or something in that healthy 110 range. If you combine those 9 numbers given above, you get at least one occurrence of each result. WAY too risky to ever give the big C to but my gut says he'll be above decent this week. Prediction - 115

Stanton
An extremely mixed bag this week. Stanton has been massive this year with only that 51 (very sub-affected) and that 78 (first game back from injury) as downers. His record against Sydney is poor before 2009 but he has a 131 and 112 (along with an 87 and 89) since then. His record at the SCG is just those three games I showed you but the most recent one was in 2009. I'll hedge my bets here. Prediction - 100

Watson
Current form is great. Form against Sydney is decent. Form at the SCG (although he hasn't played there since 2010) is less good. Going to just guess by form but it's really hard to know what he'll do at the SCG. Players tend to score more poorly there than elsewhere. Prediction - 115

Johnson
I doubted him last week and Stevie J showed me why that was a mistake. three of his last four are above 135!!! His two games against the Suns were both in 2011 before they showed some sort of promise so take them with a grain of salt. Still, he's shown dominance against them twice so he may well do it again. Scores at Kardinia don't look promising but it's his first game there this year (and he's having quite a year!) and he did have a 150 and 163 there earlier last year. Basically, should be massive. Prediction - 140

J. Selwood
His form this year has been poor but Joel wasn't called "Mr. Consistent" for nothing. 14 of his last 16 at Kardinia are tons and he's been known to score very highly (178, 162) there. He also has a nice record against the Suns. If it weren't for his current form, he'd be certainly worth a look. Too much risk though. Prediction - 110

Ablett
Three straight scores of 134+ and a very personally important game for GAJ (first one at the Cattery as a Sun) are good signs for Ablett. The bad sign is his two scores against his old team are a poor 104 and a poorer 92. The really interesting part is his record at Kardinia (all as a Cat, of course), where he has 7 straight tons and 10 of his last 11. Better yet, 3 of those 11 are 140+, and an astonishing 8 are 120+. Basically, if he can be anything like he used to be at Kardinia, he'll torch it up. Record against Geelong could come into play though. Prediction - 125

Mitchell
His high against the Dees is only 117 but I expect that to change this week. Mitchell's been a consistent performer this year and comes up against the team that loves to dish out the points. Half of Fremantle managed big scores last week so the Hawks might do the same. I'm expecting Mitchell to be the main beneficiary if he plays that sweeping half back role. Prediction - 120

Deledio
Last week was very disappointing for Lids owners, but he had shown some form leading into his poor 53. Against the Eagles, he's very consistent with five straight tons (one of them a 136). The 136 and a 115 were at Subiaco so the ground (despite Lids having a poor record there thanks to Crowley in Freo games) shouldn't bother him. Probably not going to go big but should be serviceable. Prediction - 105

The verdict:

1. Johnson (140)
2. Ablett (125)
3. Mitchell (120)
4. Pendlebury (120)
5. Riewoldt (120)

Requests:

Riewoldt - Requested by Adamant
Last 3: 80, 99, 123 (101 avg)
Last 3 against North: 47, 121, 99 (89 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 80, 123, 117 (107 avg)

Last year, Roo only had 47 on the Roos. But, right now, he's not playing like he did last year! His last two games have been relatively quiet but he's still averaging over 105. Before that 47, he has 121, 99, 142, 147, 114, 120, and 128 on them. That's one hell of a run! Expect something very handy this week as the Saints hope to keep the Roos having nightmares. Prediction - 120

Cotchin - Requested by its me lads
Last 3: 99, 92, 62 (84 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 110, 82, 81 (91 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 84, 101, 82 (89 avg)

Cotch has gone four straight games without a ton. That alone means you cannot make him captain. In five career games against the Eagles, he's had 110, a 120 in 2008, and poor scores of 82, 81, and 79 in between. He's had two tons from six career games in Perth. Basically, there's a chance he'll score alright, but I'm not betting on it. Prediction - 95

[Dutchie64]

Thanks LaHug!!!

We all know you've been busy with study and all and to still do this is a fantastic effort!!!

I've gone the SJ/GAJ route....even before you posted though, but it's good to see my actions being reinforced.

[glynman]

YOLO this week, goin with SJ!

[Clyde Frog]

Correct me if I am wrong but is rain predicted for the Cats/Suns game? Will this affect their scores?

[Adamant]

Great work LaHug, not sure who to go out of Swan and GAJ. GAJ has been in amazing form, but Swanny is so tempting as a unique captain option. :o

Could you please do NRoo? he has a killer record against North.

[Jroo]

Great work LH, I'll be sticking with Stevie J for the second time in arrow, especially now that Broughton is out - he's been successful in tagging him in the past.

[LaHug]

Correct me if I am wrong but is rain predicted for the Cats/Suns game? Will this affect their scores?

Saturday 1 June
Summary Min 12Max 17 Rain easing.
Geelong and Surf Coast area
Cloudy. Rain, easing to isolated showers in the afternoon. Winds north to northeasterly 20 to 25 km/h tending west to southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h before dawn then tending south to southeasterly 35 to 50 km/h in the middle of the day.

Sounds like the showers may have passed by the game... or at least be insignificant.

[Scrads]

Thanks LH :)

Can you (or Ric or Mr. Craig or someone else with AC) show us the percentages of how other coaches are going so far this week? Could be interesting :)

[LaHug]

Great work LaHug, not sure who to go out of Swan and GAJ. GAJ has been in amazing form, but Swanny is so tempting as a unique captain option. :o

Could you please do NRoo? he has a killer record against North.

Wow. Awesome record. Shoved him straight into my top 5!

Thanks LH :)

Can you (or Ric or Mr. Craig or someone else with AC) show us the percentages of how other coaches are going so far this week? Could be interesting :)

I don't have AC, sorry :(

[Jazzoskies]

Awesome work LH!

Locking in Stevie J!

[Adamant]

Great work LaHug, not sure who to go out of Swan and GAJ. GAJ has been in amazing form, but Swanny is so tempting as a unique captain option. :o

Could you please do NRoo? he has a killer record against North.

Wow. Awesome record. Shoved him straight into my top 5!

Thanks mate, I'm pretty sure I'll be bringing in NRoo this week so hoping for a big one!

[Colliwobblers]

great write up as always LaHuggy bear...

what a turn around from previous seasons, never would a fwd except in exceptional circumstances cox or buddy be #1 in captains.

stevie J is a midfielder now tho isn't he, big call, I have him but i am not sure i can bring myself to go past either Ablett or Swan....

Ablett's opposition should be summarily discounted it matters not who the great man plays... at this stage I am on him.

But my heart, my loyalty and my intellect tell me Swan and the Pies may have a point to prove this week, and the lions will push them so a four quarter effort may yield a BIG score from Swanny....

I am undecided but i am Ablett- Swan - Johnson at the minute.

[glynman]

Here's the current top 3 captain choices:

GAJ: 46.6%
Swan: 10.47%
SJ: 5.27%

I wouldn't put too much faith in those though, don't think GAJ has been below 30% all season and he's always been number 1 even when Swanny was smashing it. I wish they'd show the captain choices for the top 10% of teams.

[its me lads]

Thanks Lahug. Last year I locked in Sidebottom when he was on fire and against Gold Coast but he spudded up, i know the Stevie J is a very different creature but ever since the Sidebottom incident last year I've had a rule of only captaining dedicated midfielders.

Will most likely be going with Gaj.

[its me lads]

Cotchin at Pattersons sounds ugly but if your doing requests I'd love to see what he's done in the past.