LaHug's Captains - Round 6

[LaHug]

I happily do this every week, free of charge. However, if you are feeling generous and would like to thank me, please make a donation to my Cancer Research and Awareness Pledge: http://www.everydayhero.com.au/william_huggett

Borrowed a laptop to do this week's write up. Took a while longer (because this is a piece of shower) and requests will take ages (or maybe never be fulfilled) but, as per usual, here it is!

I'm back again for the third straight year of well researched captains advice!!!
For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. And remember, if you have any requests, just ask!

The facts:

Swan
Last 3: 120, 130, 109 (120 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 120, 137, 83 (113 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 123, 117, 134 (125 avg)

Pendlebury
Last 3: 108, 86, 111 (102 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 92, 107, 129 (109 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 124, 97, 133 (118 avg)

Watson
Last 3: 109, 107, 65 (94 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 91 (91 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 107, 132, 108 (116 avg)

Stanton
Last 3: 114, 130, 109 (118 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 93 (93 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 130, 62, 84 (92 avg)

Swallow
Last 3: 116, 64, 123 (101 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 138, 71, 68 (92 avg)
Last 3 at Blundstone: 123, 134, 94 (117 avg)

Mitchell
Last 3: 111, 88, 98 (99 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 91, 95, 123 (103 avg)
Last 3 at AAMI: 88, 110, 123 (107 avg)

Cotchin
Last 3: 84, 101, 119 (101 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 105, 129, 61 (98 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 101, 121, 101 (108 avg)

Deledio
Last 3: 83, 80, 135 (99 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 103, 105, 111 (106 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 80, 104, 78 (87 avg)

J. Selwood
Last 3: 84, 123, 66 (91 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 130, 108, 126 (121 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 122, 125, 97 (115 avg)

Johnson
Last 3: 141, 107, 92 (113 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 92, 153, 130 (125 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 113, 137, 95 (115 avg)

Ablett
Last 3: 131, 118, 105 (118 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 175, 117, 130 (141 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 118, 105, 135 (119 avg)

Murphy
Last 3: 115, 116, 111 (114 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 87, 145, 98 (110 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 115, 84, 103 (101 avg)

S. Selwood
Last 3: 136, 127, 142 (135 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 98, 79, 112 (96 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 127, 87, 71 (95 avg)

Boyd
Last 3: 108, 89 (99 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 116, 126, 102 (115 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 133, 102, 162 (132 avg)

The thoughts:

Swan
The king of DT seems to have good records against every team and at every ground! In 2009 he didn't score a ton in either game against the Saints, and he had an 83 in 2011 but he's also had four 120+ scores in his last five on them. His record at Etihad is amazing, with 10 out of 11 tons there going back to 2010 (six over 130 as well). Should be another good week for Swan. Prediction - 130

Pendlebury
His record against the Saints isn't nearly as great as Swan's but his record at Etihad is also amazing! 9 of his last 10 going back to 2010 with 7 of them over 120. Looks good but will be second fiddle to Swan. Prediction - 120

Watson
Jobe was poor (DTwise) against the Giants last year but I wouldn't expect a repeat this time around. He's had one poor game this year but generally been good and we all know how well he scores at Etihad. Good choice this week. Prediction - 115

Stanton
An amazing early round DT specialist, people are wondering if/when he'll stop his awesome form! Even though he wasn't great against the Giants last year, I wouldn't expect this to be the week he stops. We all know how big he can go when he's playing well (see 193 and 175 last year) but we also know how poor he can be (see 61 and 62 last year). I don't like risking him but he should be good. Prediction - 115

Swallow
Last year, he smashed the Power for a delicious 138. This time, he plays them at a ground he's only played at 3 times for a 117 average! I expect something really good from Swallow this week. He will, however, likely get the Kane Cornes tag, so beware of the risk. Might not matter though. Prediction - 125

Mitchell
Nothing special here. Just thought I should have a look. Prediction - 100

Cotchin
His last two against the Cats were handy but the real stat is his streak at the MCG. He's now at 12 straight tons there and I don't think it'll stop. It's tough to score huge against the Cats so, realistically, we can expect good but not amazing. Prediction - 110

Deledio
Disappointing his owners in DT owners so far, Deledio is set to bleed cash. At least, this week, he's a certain ton. Five straight tons against the Cats dating back to 2008 support this claim but, with only a pair of 111's as his top scores against them, it probably won't be a big ton. Prediction - 105

J. Selwood
Some disappointment for Selwood owner's is about to come to an end. Three straight tons in the last three years against the Tigers (with two of them above 125). His career average at the MCG is 104 and he's had a healthy amount of 120+ scores there in the last few years (5 out of 10). Looks great. Prediction - 125

Johnson
Similar to Selwood in the fact that he loves playing the Tigers and his MCG scores are good. The key difference is that he's started the year better but is more accustomed to a sub 100 score (i.e. more risk). I'm expecting him to be great this week (people should really considering bringing him in if they have the trades and cash). Prediction - 125

Ablett
Although he didn't play them last year, he has been awesome on them in the past. That 175 in 2011 is awesome but his last three before that were all above 115 as well. We know that he's amazing at Metricon and, with the Dockers depleted, he may pull out every trick in the book to try for an underdog victory. My pick for the week. Prediction - 135

Murphy
POD option right here. Nothing jumps out in his recent form and only that 145 against Melbourne shows anything good at all. But, remember, Melbourne are awful this year and that's why he should go big. That simple. Best DTer against the woeful Dees. Prediction - 120

S. Selwood
His last three games made him someone I had to look at but, frankly, he hasn't shown anything exciting against the Dogs (a team that premiums love to pick on) and his record at home this year hasn't even been that good (his worst three scores out of the five). Still, I think he'll be ok, just not a captain option. Prediction - 105

Boyd
Slow start for Boyd coming back from injury but he's mighty tempting this week. A high B/E all but assures he won't be in any teams but, in the off chance you're a gambler, you may be in luck! 7 of his last 8 against the Eagles are tons and his record at the Playground is amazing. Only the fact he's underdone has stopped this prediction from being huge. Prediction - 110

The verdict:

1. Ablett (135)
2. Swan (130)
3. J. Selwood (125)
4. Johnson (125)
5. Swallow (125)

Requests:

[glynman]

Looks good mate, except for Ablett 135. Won't Crowley go to Ablett? Should still dominate but I'm tipping 110.

[Mr.Craig]

This is the toughest week yet. I've got at least 8 players who are a legit chance of going 120+.

I'm tempted to not stay calm. :-\

[LaHug]

Looks good mate, except for Ablett 135. Won't Crowley go to Ablett? Should still dominate but I'm tipping 110.

Didn't go to him last time in 2011 (although, you'd think they'd fix that after Ablett smashed them). I may be tempted to change my mind in the next 24 hours though... So indecisive this week. Very tough to call!

[jamfrank]

Not getting GAJ in till next week thanks to the backline dropping like flies, so it's an easy call: Swanny. Next week though...

[disco1992]

Looks good mate, except for Ablett 135. Won't Crowley go to Ablett? Should still dominate but I'm tipping 110.

Didn't go to him last time in 2011 (although, you'd think they'd fix that after Ablett smashed them). I may be tempted to change my mind in the next 24 hours though... So indecisive this week. Very tough to call!

just chucking it out there he didnt go ablett in 2011 because crawley was playing forward on harbrow! no data on crawley vs ablett(GC). he should go to him! but would love to see someone like barlow go head to head with him

[nrich102]

Looks good mate, except for Ablett 135. Won't Crowley go to Ablett? Should still dominate but I'm tipping 110.

Didn't go to him last time in 2011 (although, you'd think they'd fix that after Ablett smashed them). I may be tempted to change my mind in the next 24 hours though... So indecisive this week. Very tough to call!

just chucking it out there he didnt go ablett in 2011 because crawley was playing forward on harbrow! no data on crawley vs ablett(GC). he should go to him! but would love to see someone like barlow go head to head with him

waste of a player getting someone to tag Gary.

[Mr.Craig]

There's been some suggesting that Crowley will move forward and try to press Ablett defensively.

Also worth noting that Gary's two highest scores this year have come off the back of kicking four goals and three goals. If he doesn't get as much opportunity to run forward, or misses his shots then he's more likely to be around the 100-110 mark.

[LaHug]

There's been some suggesting that Crowley will move forward and try to press Ablett defensively.

Also worth noting that Gary's two highest scores this year have come off the back of kicking four goals and three goals. If he doesn't get as much opportunity to run forward, or misses his shots then he's more likely to be around the 100-110 mark.

Good point. But doesn't he usually go forward to break a tag? Meaning that, if Crowley does go to him, he'll actually score better? I'm still tossing up between Swan and Ablett. May even work it out the old fashion way by flipping a coin!

[Mr.Craig]

Good point. But doesn't he usually go forward to break a tag? Meaning that, if Crowley does go to him, he'll actually score better?

I guess it all depends how well you think GC will do. If they perform against Freo like they did last year then he shouldn't have a problem doing that but if they get hemmed in to the defensive 50 for extended periods it might have some impact.

I was going to keep this to my self but what the heck - Regarding Dane Swan, there was a common element to his ten lowest scores scores of 2012 - every single one of the games was at night. The difference between his average in night games and day games was significant. Mind you his highest score for the year was a night game vs Essendon but I think it represents a pattern none the less.

[Jukes]

Brent flowering Stanton, 100% locked in.

Birthday on Wednesday, regains his dt record on Saturday.

[LaHug]

Good point. But doesn't he usually go forward to break a tag? Meaning that, if Crowley does go to him, he'll actually score better?

I guess it all depends how well you think GC will do. If they perform against Freo like they did last year then he shouldn't have a problem doing that but if they get hemmed in to the defensive 50 for extended periods it might have some impact.

Surely they do ok against the Dockers without Pavlich, Sandilands, or Fyfe...?

I was going to keep this to my self but what the heck - Regarding Dane Swan, there was a common element to his ten lowest scores scores of 2012 - every single one of the games was at night. The difference between his average in night games and day games was significant. Mind you his highest score for the year was a night game vs Essendon but I think it represents a pattern none the less.

Wow, interesting statistic! Does a night game this week change anyone's mind?

[Aaron8]

Ablett or Swan for me, can't really split them so will probably end up flipping a coin!

[pommyadam]

Gaj for me, though that Jelwood writeup looks tempting

[Windigo]

Going with Swan.

Crowley has done a good job of tagging this year... Can't risk it TBH.  :-\