LaHug's Captains - Round 4

[LaHug]

I happily do this every week, free of charge. However, if you are feeling generous and would like to thank me, please make a donation to my Cancer Research and Awareness Pledge: http://www.everydayhero.com.au/william_huggett

Busy week for me (catching up on missed uni, still got the eye problem, millions of assessments, blah blah blah). But you'll get no excuses from me! I'm back like I am every week and I'm giving you an assessment of the very best options! Requests may not be checked and completed until Thursday evening.

I'm back again for the third straight year of well researched captains advice!!!
For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. And remember, if you have any requests, just ask!

The facts:

Mitchell
Last 3: 98, 109, 128 (112 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 73, 100, 129 (101 avg)
Last 3 at Aurora: 103, 119, 73 (98 avg)

Franklin
Last 3: 109, 90, 73 (91 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 81, 68, 83 (77 avg)
Last 3 at Aurora: 204, 81, 71 (119 avg)

Deledio
Last 3: 135, 104, 78 (106 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 140, 118, 71 (110 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 104, 78, 77 (86 avg)

Cotchin
Last 3: 119, 121, 101 (114 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 88, 102 (95 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 121, 101, 121 (114 avg)

Swan
Last 3: 109, 117, 123 (116 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 116, 131, 133 (127 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 109, 117, 187 (138 avg)

Pendlebury
Last 3: 111, 108, 124 (114 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 122, 121, 114 (119 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 111, 108, 106 (108 avg)

Watson
Last 3: 65, 143, 113 (107 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 82, 134, 123 (113 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 132, 108, 121 (120 avg)

Stanton
Last 3: 109, 142, 115 (122 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 74, 76, 134 (95 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 62, 84, 74 (73 avg)

Ablett
Last 3: 105, 84, 135 (108 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 106, 83, 133 (107 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 105, 135, 89 (110 avg)

Ward
Last 3: 113, 105, 83 (100 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 111, 81 (96 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 72, 111, 72 (85 avg)

Swallow
Last 3: 123, 115, 141 (126 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 93, 104, 116 (104 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 115, 141, 140 (132 avg)

The thoughts:

Mitchell
Despite the fact that Sammy generally likes playing at Aurora and, in the past, has scored well against the Dockers (5 straight tons before last year's 73), last year was a REAL SCARE! Crowley tagged him and tagged him well. Plus, last week, Crowley kept Stanton to only 22 disposals (8 from free kicks) and what would have been a lowly DT score if not for tackles. Not for me. Prediction - 90

Franklin
Thought I'd entertain the option... You know there's a problem when a 204 (against North) is in your three game average at a ground and it's still only 119. Doesn't look good against the Dockers either. Oh well, worth a look (as I know one of you would ask me about him anyway). Form this year hasn't excited me either. Prediction - 75

Deledio
This new goalkicking version of Lids has made him much more impacting on the DT scoreboard. Great scores in his last couple against the Pies add to the enticement. Collingwood probably won't tag so that's a plus. Only downside is his last few at the MCG but the sample space is too small to take much out of. Very legitimate options this week. Prediction - 120

Cotchin
After breaking his ton hoodoo against the Saints last week, Cotchin's only significant active streak is 11 straight tons at the MCG. Is he going for number 12? Only played the Pies twice in his career for a pretty average output but still think he'll be great this week and keep the streak going. Prediction - 115

Swan
Four straight tons against the Tigers in the last four years (all 116+). 10 straight tons at the G (and 21 of his last 23). He's the greatest DTer on the planet. If only there was some kind of cherry on top... Oh wait, that's right! It's game 200 for the big man. Lockity lockity lock lock lock. Prediction - 130

Pendlebury
Also on four straight tons against the Tigers and his form and scoring are eerily similar to Swans (albeit, a little smaller). Interestingly, the Tigers didn't tag last time they played the Pies. There's a chance he'll get the Jackson tag but that usually does very little. Should be great. Prediction - 115

Watson
Last time they played, Armitage tagged Watson and tagged him well. However, I think he's too valuable to the Saints right now so he won't be tagging. That leaves Jones to tag - a guy that didn't tag last week, got comfortably beaten by Cotchin the week before, and suffocated Bennell in round 1. He might not even tag Watson though as he may go to Stanton. Regardless, Watson was comfortable against the Saints until Armitage shut him down so, with Armi likely to run free, Watson should be good. Prediction - 110

Stanton
Last week, he was tagged and tagged well to hold him to just 22 disposals (including 8 frees for). The exciting thing for DT coaches is that, despite only getting 22 disposals, he still scored 109. Basically, Stanton's work rate and tackling was amazing which got him a good score. Amazingly, he had exactly 22 disposals last time he played the Saints but only scored a dismal 74. Looks like those low scores might be a thing of the past! Prediction - 110

Ablett
With what will now be known as the "Jukes Curse" until he scores his next 130, GAJ is really disappointing those that picked him. Round 1 looked very promising and then he disappeared. What makes matters worse is he doesn't exactly have good scores against Port since going to the Suns. Of course, he loves Metricon (averages 115 there) but will that be enough? Sadly, I don't think so... Prediction - 110

Ward
Literally just here because he's the best midfielder playing Melbourne this week. In the last three weeks, Melbourne have given away 20 tons (that's 6.7 per game). Scott Selwood got 142 against them, Heppell, Watson, and Stanton all got over 140, and Brad Ebert got a 129. Basically, the best midfielder over the last three weeks has averaged just under 140 against them. Umm... wow. If you're super gutsy and have a GWS midfielder (does anyone?!), it could be worth the punt. Prediction - 115

Swallow
Swallow's in some kind of form and having the breakout year that those lucky enough to have him were expecting. Three rounds is enough for someone that was already good (sorry, not yet Hoff) to prove they're worth a look. Playing Brisbane, a team that is pretty poor right now, at the ground he loves to play on, it's hard not to think Swallow's in for a good one. Will he cop the Raines tag? Will it matter? Last year it went to Boomer so it's a good chance to move to Swallow this week. That and that alone is the only reason Swallow's not sitting in the number 2 spot this week. Prediction - 115

The verdict:

1. Swan (130)
2. Deledio (120)
3. Cotchin (115)
4. Pendlebury (115)
5. Swallow (115)
Special mention: Ward (115)

Requests:

Mundy - Requested by PowerBug
Last 3: 88, 70, 117 (92 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 83, 75, 99 (86 avg)
Last 3 at Aurora: 83, 67, 58 (69 avg)

Nothing here that shows him as a legitimate options. Same ground and same team last year for an 83. Can't see why things would be any different this time around?? Prediction - 85

McVeigh - Requested by PowerBug
Last 3: 120, 124, 77 (107 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 113, 59, 79 (84 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 124, 68, 107 (100 avg)

McVeigh is simply too up and down to ever consider a DT captain. His last two weeks have been good but that doesn't mean he's worthy of a pick. Good scores and bad scores scattered everywhere. To be honest, I can't even make a real prediction but, for the sake of this article, I'm going to guess blindly. Prediction - 85

Selwood - Requested by luvfooty
Last 3: 66, 109, 122 (99 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 101, 103, 100 (101 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 103, 92 (98 avg)

Mr. Consistent was disappointing last week but lives up to his name against the Swans. You always expect a 105 average from him and, although he has a few massive ones and a few poor scores, he generally scores right on that mark. Looking like he'll do the same or similar again this week. Prediction - 100

Cox - Requested by yorgis
Last 3: 132, 88, 82 (101 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 96, 120, 87 (101 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 88, 82, 87 (86 avg)

The big Cox went bang last week (albeit, against the hapless Demons) and faces a Carlton side with no ruck (well, with Warnock) this week. Basically, his record against the Blues is good and, although the ground rarely comes into play for Cox, he can score big at Subi. Should be good (not sure if great though). Prediction - 105

Westhoff - Requested by Jukes
Last 3: 140, 154, 100 (131 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 68, 92 (80 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 68 (68 avg)

Current form or history? Before this year, Westhoff was, well, poor... This year, so far, Westhoff has been amazing. I, for one, still don't buy it and refuse to accept he's a DT star. I'm still thinking it'll end. However, I can't be sure that it's not for real and maybe, just maybe, he'll go BOOM again against the Suns. However, due to the uncertainty, I refuse to make a prediction... Prediction - ??

Kennedy - Requested by lozza71
Last 3: 114, 91, 87 (97 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 98, 76, 87 (87 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 91, 113, 99 (101 avg)

Every time this someone requests this guy, I make sure to emphasise that he is a SC specialist. By all means, he's not a bad DTer, but he's not consistent enough and he relies a lot on getting tackles for points. Geelong will be tough to score highly against as well. He has been decent against them before but only the one ton. Prediction - 95

Hodge - Requested by betch ya
Last 3: 135, 99 (117 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 83, 74, 112 (90 avg)
Last 3 at Aurora: 73, 47, 80 (67 avg)

Looking back over the years, Hodge has some good scores against the Dockers and some great scores in Launceston. A beautiful start to the year with lots of time through the middle (with Mitchell having that half back role) has Hodgey scoring well. I like him this week but, because last year was such an iffy year, it's hard to get much hard evidence that he'll be good. Prediction - 105

Dangerfield - Requested by Shihan7
Last 3: 95, 95, 51 (80 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 78, 67, 51 (65 avg)
Last 3 at AAMI: 95, 51, 136 (94 avg)

Finished last year with a bang, started this year with a fizzle. Three games for no tons this year. Four games for no tons against the Bulldogs. Oh dear... Prediction - 90

Barlow - Requested by essendon2
Last 3: 90, 91, 126 (102 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 109, 103 (106 avg)
Last 3 at Aurora: 109 (109 avg)

Barlow is the perfect example of an "almost premium". Can, and often will, score good tons but will probably give you a solid but non-premium 95ish average. However, he's been above that in his only two games against the Hawks so this will probably be one of those ton games. Still, probably not worthy of a captain choice. Prediction - 105

Boyd
2012 avg: 115
Best 3 scores from 2012: 162 vs. North, 146 vs. St Kilda, 133 vs. Fremantle and Port
Last 3 against Adelaide: 125, 70, 82 (92 avg)
Last 3 at AAMI: 125, 123, 82 (110 avg)

Boyd will be playing his first game of the new season and it will be very rare to see him in DT teams. For those few that are bringing him in this week, it's very hard to know what to expect with a new coach and first game back. However, here's what we do know. He scored well against the Crows last year (for the first time since 2007). He's had two consecutively good games at AAMI (Crows last year, Power the year before). And, finally, he's Matty Boyd - one of the best DTers going around. Assuming he's 100%, I'm thinking he'll start pretty well. Also, 17/22 for tons last year. Prediction - 110

Riewoldt - Requested by Windigo
Last 3: 99, 108, 82 (96 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 135, 98, 91 (108 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 133, 135, 47 (105 avg)

Pretty good start to the year from N Roo, looking like he wants to reclaim the title of "the best Riewoldt". We all know that he can score well at Etihad but what's better is how good he is against Essendon! He's played the Bombers 14 times and scored 80+ 13 times, 90+ 11 times, 100+ 9 times, and 120+ 4 times. All of that for a career average of 105 against them. That's pretty good! But, we have to remember, he's a key forward and there's a good chance that, although he'll score well, you'll have plenty of mids scoring better. Good score is probable, captain worthy is not. Prediction - 115

[PowerBug]

Going pendles atm. Mundy and McVeigh please though Huggy. :)

[Colliwobblers]

Great work huggy as always.

I am torn - i would think ablett will have a field day port is up and about but ablett is ablett and the only thing that has me off him in this matchup is the hand issues.

Everything you say about Swan is perfection :)  did you see him on the club tonight? great man. locked for me 4 in a row now....

I also think hoff could be an interesting option for a POD but who would risk it?

[LF]

Jelwood please LaHug

[yorgis]

cornes is in great form and will no doubt tag gaj [kenny h knows gaj inside out] pendles got injured and palyed on

last week but did very little in the last 1/4 and a 1/2. [ may still have a bit of a niggle, but this is a very important game

for both teams ] tending to go swanny this week after a couple of below average weeks, plus the fact it's his 200th

Huggy, what about the big fella COXXY ???

[Jukes]

Thoughts on Westhoff vs GC, Huggy?

Will probably go Swanny, but against the suns Westy could ride his recent form and destroy another team.

[Toga]

Gotta be Swanny! 8)

Thanks for another great write-up LH :D

[hardnut]

I'm torn between Cotch, Pendles and Lids, predictor has me losing my matchup which makes Lids that bit more enticing but I'm scared of the possible 70-odd... comments from the crowd are welcome....

[Capper]

Hmmm i dont have any of you top 6, not good.

I will be going Stanton

Nice write up Hugs

[lozza71]

Jj kennedy. Sydney fella vs cats. Thouhhts

[pavs nose]

good effort lahug but why not save yourself time and tune into calvins captains each week

[betch ya]

hodge

[Shihan7]

Nice write up LaHug  :).

If u dont mind, could u plz do Dangerfield and Mundy, Cheers.

[Chelskiman]

Swan for me.  No questions asked, and not even going to request anyone as I don't care.  If you don't pick Swan then it means you don't have him, and if you don't have him then hit that delete button right now.

[S_Coach99]

An in form Cox at home against Warnock/Blues with no Kruezer