WXV Round 12 - Thunder/Islanders battle for Spoon

[ossie85]

Partial Lockout!

Thursday game locked Thursday night. Rest of teams locked Friday night

Round 12
(AFL Round 14)

Paris Nice Lyon Reindeers       v       Cape Town Cobras       Stade du Ray
New York Revolution       v       Dublin Destroyers       MetLife Stadium, New Jersey, USA
Mexico City Suns       v       Tokyo Samurai       Guadalajara
Pacific Islanders       v       Beijing Thunder Linklater Oval
Sao Paulo Pumas       v       Cairo Sands       Estádio do Pumas
Buenos Aires Armadillos       v       New Delhi Tigers       Estadio de River
Wellington Warriors       v       Seoul Magpies       The Basin Reserve
Toronto Wolves       v       London Royals       Rogers Centre, Toronto
Moscow Spetsnaz       v       Berlin Brewers       Luzhniki Stadium, Moscow


The Run Home

1. Sao Paulo Pumas, 10 wins, 1 loss, 118.75 percentage

Back on top after a the Suns went down to the Spetsnaz. Sao Paulo have only a 1 point loss to Cape Town as a blip on the radar, and would love to go back to back Minor Premiers. Should win matches against Cairo and Dublin, will win against Pacific and New Delhi and Toronto could be a challenge. But it all comes down the final round - Suns v Pumas - which is shaping up as the decider for the Minor Premiership.

Prediction: 15-2, 1st

2. Mexico City Suns, 10, 1, 115.25

Were looking untouchable before the Spetsnaz took them down last week. But the thing about the Suns is you have to play well to beat them, they don't have bad days. Will win against Tokyo and Beijing and should win against Berlin and New York. BUT the real challenge will come from the 2nd placed Pumas in round 17 and the 3rd placed Armadillos in round 14.

Prediction: 15-2, 2nd

3, Buenos Aires Armadillos, 9, 2, 117.68

The Armadillos had a squad of 15 to chose its 15 from, and still scored over 160. This is a team that has no depth, but is full of talent - meaning they are vulnerable to injuries. Will win against New Delhi, Wellington and Tokyo, should win against Seoul and New York, and challenge will be against Mexico City.

4   Moscow Spetsnaz   9   2   106.71

Just keep finding ways to win! Have played the Pumas, the Suns, the Armadillos and the Wolves and came away with a 3-1 record. They finish the year off against Berlin, Pacific, Dublin, Cape Town, New Delhi and Tokyo - no reason they can't win them all.

5   Cape Town Cobras   8   3   102.98

Things were going swimmingly for the Cobras are 4 wins of 4 points or less this year, and a string of 8 wins in a row. But they have lost badly the last two weeks to strong contenders (Toronto, Buenos Aires) and now are looking very shaky. The run home sees them against 4 of the bottom 5 though, a struggling London and a rampaging Moscow. They should win 4-5 from here.

6   Toronto Wolves   7   4   107.40

The Wolves are looking very strong, but a lot of things would have to go there way to make the top 4. Even if they win there remaining 6, I don't see them overtaking Moscow or Buenos Aires, who have soft-ish draws. No reason they couldn't win against any of London, PNL, Berlin, Dublin (a tour de Europe!) or Cairo - and the Pumas look the biggest hurdle in the way of a home elimination final.

7   Berlin Brewers   6   5   105.90

The 1 point victory against New York was hugely important for Berlin - who face off against Moscow, Mexico City and Toronto in the run home. They could still make the finals even if they lose to every one of them, but they must win against Tokyo, Seoul and Beijing. An upset over one of the big 6 would see them play finals probably.

8   Cairo Sands   6   5   104.51

Finally crack the top 8, and they still have Dayne Beams to return eventually! The Sands are much improved, and standing in there way of finals appearances are tough encounters against Sao Paulo and Toronto. But, like Berlin, they can lose both and as long as they win against the other 3 or 4, they are still a chance.

9   London Royals   6   5   101.15

The London bridge has burned down, and they find themselves out of the 8. They won 5 of there first 6, but have lost 4 of there last 5. They still have a very capable midfield, but injuries are hurting. They have tough chances against Toronto and Cape Town, 50-50 chances against New York and Cairo, and wins against Beijing and Wellington probably. I think they will just miss out.

10   Seoul Magpies   5   6   103.29

Things haven't gone to plan for the preseason premiers, and have lost games they shouldn't have. Need to win at least 4, and probably 5, of the final 6 to qualify for the finals. Can't see them getting over Buenos Aires, but the other 5 are winnable.

11   New York Revolution   5   6   98.59

1 point loss to Berlin was huge, and the ugly truth is that New York have won only 1 match over the last 7 rounds - some of those frightfully unlucky. Coupled with the fact they play off against Buenos Aires and Mexico City to finish the year, it may just be too much for New York to qualify this year.

12   Dublin Destroyers   5   6   98.53

Improvement should be enough of an achievement for Dublin - and with 3 tough matches against Moscow, Sao Paulo and Toronto - I don't think we can expect finals.

13   Tokyo Samurai   4   7   100.83

A percentage over 100 and a 4-7 record says a lot, as the Samurai have gone down twice to bottom 4 teams this year. Would need a miracle from here with games against Mexico City, Buenos Aires, Moscow, Cairo, Berlin and New York to come.

14   Paris Nice Lyon Reindeers   3   8   96.02

Reindeers are slow to get up each season it seems! With stars returning from injury, they should avoid the bottom 4, but too far behind otherwise. Could cause some upsets!

15   New Delhi Tigers   3   8   84.60

Have managed to get 3 wins this year, and I think that's an achievement. I doubt they'll get another, but they wiill avoide the spoon.

16   Wellington Warriors   2   9   80.01

Should avoide the spoon.

17   Pacific Islanders   1   10   79.64

Round 12 clash is crucial against Beijing to avoid the spoon!

18   Beijing Thunder   0   11   80.21

Round 12 clash is crucial against Pacific to avoid the spoon!

My guess:

Position   Name   Wins   Loses
1   Buenos Aires Armadillos   15   2
2   Sao Paulo Pumas   15   2
3   Mexico City Suns   15   2
4   Moscow Spetsnaz   15   2
5   Cape Town Cobras   13   4
6   Toronto Wolves   12   5
7   Cairo Sands   10   7
8   Berlin Brewers   9   8
9   London Royals   8   9
10   New York Revolution   8   9
11   Seoul Magpies   7   10
12   Paris Nice Lyon Reindeers   7   10
13   Dublin Destroyers   7   10
14   Tokyo Samurai   4   13
15   New Delhi Tigers   3   14
16   Wellington Warriors   2   15
17   Pacific Islanders   2   15
18   Beijing Thunder   1   16




Other Highlights:
London also had a 1 point thriller against Toronto last time, and now they have a match to honour Canadian Independence Day on July 1.

Laste year saw a rare win to Dublin came against New York by 1 solitary point, also Moscow a 2 point win over Berlin.

[Maca24]

Mexico City Suns:

Def: B.Goddard (VC), C.Enright, J.Adcock, B.Lake.
Mids: S.Sidebottom (C), S.Thompson, B.Ebert, L.Hodge.
Rucks: I.Maric.
Frwds: J.Bartel, N.Riewoldt, J.Lewis, M.Lecras.
Bench: B.Moloney, J.Waite.
Emg: S.Crameri, B.Vince, D.Merrett.

Hurn out with his ankle, Lake replaces him. Surely Sandilands isn't too far away.

[Jukes]

Moscow Spetsnaz

D: Shaw, Dixon, Murphy, Hombsch
M: Griffen (c), Fyfe, Ward, Treloar
R: Naitanui (vc)
F: Martin, Monfries, Darling, Walters
U: Seedsman, Thomas

Emg: Adams, Clarke, Vickery

[Nails]

We have depth, just we have injuries :(

D - Scotland, C. Cornes, SD Thompson, Burgoyne, Brennan and Gilbert - 6 premo defenders (surely that's depth?)
M - Swan, Boyd, Carrazzo, Cross, Barlow, Kane Cornes (6 premo-ish midfielders + a few premo fwd/mids)
R - Cox/Warnock (two guns)
F - Cox, Stevie J, P. Chapman, D. Petrie, B. Harvey and J. Schulz - all premos

Your right up saying we don't have any depth is a lie imo :o

Like 6 premos in each position. Isn't that depth? :( Also have lots of back up spuds like P. Stewart in fwds, T. Logan in def, J. McKenzie in mids and J. Redden in ruck

[ossie85]

Fair call nails, but you did have zero reserves last week :p

[Nails]

So even when we have to call up the worst/only players left on our list we still score like a top notch team :)

Injuries suck. Why is Cross playing in the reserves ::) that one really grinds my gears.

[Justin Bieber]

To avoid controversy, teams can be accepted for the round for membership points purposes ON the hour after the last game of the round finishes (i.e. if the last game finishes at 5:45pm, teams can be accepted from 6:00pm --> Will use fanfooty clock).

Round 12
(AFL Round 14)

Wouldn't this before after Round 13 AFL (After the State of Origin matches in Worlds)? Not sure why teams are being named 1.5 weeks early :o.

Hoping to catch Cape Town while they're in their current form, in line for some upsets 8).

[ossie85]

To avoid controversy, teams can be accepted for the round for membership points purposes ON the hour after the last game of the round finishes (i.e. if the last game finishes at 5:45pm, teams can be accepted from 6:00pm --> Will use fanfooty clock).

Round 12
(AFL Round 14)

Wouldn't this before after Round 13 AFL (After the State of Origin matches in Worlds)? Not sure why teams are being named 1.5 weeks early :o.

Hoping to catch Cape Town while they're in their current form, in line for some upsets 8).

Hp is correct

[Nails]

Are they after membership points maybe? idk

Can't hurt to do 'em early better than having to use last week's teams I guess.

[Purple 77]

Great write-up btw oz, I certainly hope I make the 8

[Maca24]

I just felt like getting in early.  :P

[CrowsFan]

So the teams posted already don't get the membership points for first posted?

[Nails]

My guess:

Position   Name   Wins   Loses
1   Buenos Aires Armadillos   15   2
2   Sao Paulo Pumas   15   2
3   Mexico City Suns   15   2
4   Moscow Spetsnaz   15   2
5   Cape Town Cobras   13   4
6   Toronto Wolves   12   5
7   Cairo Sands   10   7
8   Berlin Brewers   9   8
9   London Royals   8   9
10   New York Revolution   8   9
11   Seoul Magpies   7   10
12   Paris Nice Lyon Reindeers   7   10
13   Dublin Destroyers   7   10
14   Tokyo Samurai   4   13
15   New Delhi Tigers   3   14
16   Wellington Warriors   2   15
17   Pacific Islanders   2   15
18   Beijing Thunder   1   16

:O :O :O :O

[Nige]

Cairo 7th! :o 8)

Wouldn't mind seeing that at the end of it all.

#feelsgoodman

[roo boys!]

Yeah Moscow getting up over us by 1 point and then beating the Suns this week puts top 4 almost out of reach, but would still be pretty happy to secure a home elimination final.