Researching ROUGHEAD

[boneman]

Like many I have been disappointed with his output but have taken some time to look into his stats from last year. His SCORE RANGE over the 2012 year (including finals):

Scores Between:

50 â€" 70 (2)
80 â€" 100 (10)
100 â€" 120 (6)
120 â€" 130 (5)

The main scoring output argument I have read this year centres on his ‘new’ role in the Hawthorn side and the fact that he is not being used in the ruck. I took into account this and looked at his scores last year where his HITOUTS were at their lowest:

Round 14 â€" HO: 6, Disposals: 12, Goals: 3, SC Score: 112
Round 15 â€" HO: 6, Disposals: 21, Goals: 6, SC Score: 126
Round 16 â€" HO: 9, Disposals: 18, Goals: 2, SC Score: 113
Round 17 â€" HO: 6, Disposals: 20, Goals: 3, SC Score: 96
Round 18 â€" HO: 8, Disposals: 18, Goals: 3, SC Score: 100

Things to note here are that Bailey only featured in Round 18 and Franklin was out injured from Round 16 onwards. Yes it is only a small sample but it seems that it is not just his involvement in the Ruck that is affecting his scoring.

The question still remains what to do with him.? People will be inclined to cut him now due to his price about to take a hit, but when picking premiums this shouldn’t be a concern. I see these options:

1. HOLD (trade next week to Leuenberger if still underperforming and still pocket $200k)
2. RUCK TRADE â€" McEvoy, Jacobs or Goldstein/Kreuzer (pocket $50k)
3. FWD TRADE â€" Rioli or Bartel

Thoughts???

[woofy]

Usually I keep the faith with premiums but not this time. last year I kept Broughton till he got injured even though I knew he was playing a different role but with the extra trades this year and the fact he won't score as well with bailey in the side has got me to either sideway trade him or make some money and trade him to leunberger.

[ronl]

Agree with woofy, to me he doesn't seem like a happy chappy re his role in the side compared to last year.  I'm cutting him loose for Luey.

[woofy]

Have a look at his previous years. Last yr averages 100 due to no bailey and in 2011 he averaged 100 until round 12 before he got injured. Bailey didn't start playing that year until about round 10-11. Trade! :)

[boneman]

Have a look at his previous years. Last yr averages 100 due to no bailey and in 2011 he averaged 100 until round 12 before he got injured. Bailey didn't start playing that year until about round 10-11. Trade! :)

Bailey played from Round 9 in 2011.

WITHOUT Bailey in the side from Rounds 1-4 Roughead scored 82,98,74,73  :o

WITH Bailey in the side from Rounds 9-11 Roughead scored 121,118 & 133  ???

Agree with woofy, to me he doesn't seem like a happy chappy re his role in the side compared to last year.  I'm cutting him loose for Luey.

Are you holding for another week to see how Leuy goes or taking advantage of the extra $50k you will score if you trade Roughie now?

Out of the other Rucks, who looks to be the best option:

McEvoy - Talk Hickey returning could affect his points?
Jacobs - Seems to be a stock standard 100 scorer...can he go higher?
Goldstein - Higher ceiling than the others...can he maintain his output and his spot with others knocking on the door?
Kreuzer - Breakout year contender...ruck role seems to be his sole position.
Griffin - No Sandi but a similar output to Jacobs?

[woofy]

Have a look at his previous years. Last yr averages 100 due to no bailey and in 2011 he averaged 100 until round 12 before he got injured. Bailey didn't start playing that year until about round 10-11. Trade! :)

Bailey played from Round 9 in 2011.

WITHOUT Bailey in the side from Rounds 1-4 Roughead scored 82,98,74,73  :o

WITH Bailey in the side from Rounds 9-11 Roughead scored 121,118 & 133  ???

This is true. Although looking into it further, Hale did not play from round 9 to 12 leaving Roughead to be helping Bailey in the ruck. Also Bailey was subbed out 3rd quarter in round 9 and copped a knock to the ribs in round 11 which may have affected his game time/performance? Either way Roughead is gone for me...

Agree with woofy, to me he doesn't seem like a happy chappy re his role in the side compared to last year.  I'm cutting him loose for Luey.

Are you holding for another week to see how Leuy goes or taking advantage of the extra $50k you will score if you trade Roughie now?

Out of the other Rucks, who looks to be the best option:

McEvoy - Talk Hickey returning could affect his points?
Jacobs - Seems to be a stock standard 100 scorer...can he go higher?
Goldstein - Higher ceiling than the others...can he maintain his output and his spot with others knocking on the door?
Kreuzer - Breakout year contender...ruck role seems to be his sole position.
Griffin - No Sandi but a similar output to Jacobs?

How about Minson?

[Holz]

his hard early draw meant he was always going to struggle ealry, I expected a slow start but not this slow.

I would go to goldy, i cant see rough scoring big untill round 8 and I think he should be sub 500k from than. Goldy i think will outscore Roughy comfrtably, i have him down for a 105 average for 500k i just think its a good trade.

[woofy]

his hard early draw meant he was always going to struggle ealry, I expected a slow start but not this slow.

I would go to goldy, i cant see rough scoring big untill round 8 and I think he should be sub 500k from than. Goldy i think will outscore Roughy comfrtably, i have him down for a 105 average for 500k i just think its a good trade.

Wouldn't mind Goldy with Currie as my R4. At least I know I will have at least one playing if the other isn't. BUT... Leuenberger is quite tempting and I might risk it to get the biscuit. If he can stay on the park he should average 100 by seasons end. The Last time he played again the Gold Coast this guy scored 172 points!!! yummmm

[boneman]

Minson is a bit of the unknown...his hitout numbers are massive and he seems to track around the ground really well. Maric plays a similar role and seems to thrive on the sole ruckman duties. The only issue I have with Minson is burnout factor or if he visits the tribunal which he has a habit of doing anually.

Goldstein looks the pick out of the bunch for higher scoring capacity.

I have had a look at some salary movements. For those that track the prices closely am I right in the following sum calculations:

If Roughead scored 89 (previous week score) his price would reduce to $521k and if Goldstein was to reach his previous round score of 105 his price would increase to $507k. In saying this is there any harm in holding onto Roughie for one more week to see how he fares. This way it gives another chance to look at Leuy aswell. Another questionably effort from Roughead and there is still a get out clause of a straight swap or a downgrade.

[woofy]

I'm assuming you don't have any more money in the bank? What if Roughy scores 100 this week then the following weeks he scores shower again? haha If you believe you can do a straight trade with Goldy if Roughy doesn't do well this weekend then I say why not.

[boneman]

I'm assuming you don't have any more money in the bank? What if Roughy scores 100 this week then the following weeks he scores shower again? haha If you believe you can do a straight trade with Goldy if Roughy doesn't do well this weekend then I say why not.

Yeah no funds available...its in the lap of the Gods when it comes to salary movement and banking on price rises/falls the following week. Who's to say though the player traded in (Goldie) won't get injured straight away...that is the reason we love/hate this game. There is so much out of our control.

At least with the rolling lockouts I don't have to make a decision tonight unless I was to go with Griffin. Don't see him being a massive influence all year (watch that comment come back and bite me  ::)).