LaHug's Captains - Round 1 Part 2

[LaHug]

I happily do this every week, free of charge. However, if you are feeling generous and would like to thank me, please make a donation to my Cancer Research and Awareness Pledge: http://www.everydayhero.com.au/william_huggett

I'm back again for the third straight year of well researched captains advice!!!
For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. And remember, if you have any requests, just ask!

Richmond and Carlton are yet to play so there are more loophole options to come. However, for now, I'll show you who to pick if your loophole fails! I'll be looking at top 3 for 2012 instead of last 3 games because it's only round 1. Note, unless your loophole VC scores 130+, it's probably not worth passing on Swanny...

Link to part 1 for Richmond/Carlton VCs: http://www.fanfooty.com.au/forum/index.php/topic,74718.0.html

REMINDER! How the loophole works:
1. Select a player from one of those teams as your VICE CAPTAIN.
2. For now, set your captain to someone worthy of captaincy (in case you forget to change it) such as Swan.
3. IF your VC scores really well, sub a non-playing player onto the field and set them as captain.
4. Make sure you have an emergency in the position of your non-playing captain.

Note: This has risks if there is a late withdrawal as you won't have cover. I will not accept any responsibility for any such misfortune. Your team, your decision!

The facts:

Boyd
2012 avg: 115
Best 3 scores from 2012: 162 vs. North, 146 vs. St Kilda, 133 vs. Fremantle and Port
Last 3 against Brisbane: 125, 70, 120 (105 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 100, 115, 94 (103 avg) Whoops! Boyd's injured... Ignore this.

Ablett
2012 avg: 125
Best 3 scores from 2012: 190 vs. Collingwood, 175 vs. Hawthorn, 160 vs. Essendon
Last 3 against St Kilda: 61, 143, 118 (107 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 89, 99, 152 (113 avg)

N. Riewoldt
2012 avg: 86
Best 3 scores from 2012: 136 vs. Gold Coast, 135 vs. Essendon, 133 vs. Bulldogs
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 136, 126 (131 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 136, 110, 128 (125 avg)

Swan
2012 avg: 134
Best 3 scores from 2012: 187 vs. Essendon, 172 vs. Fremantle, 171 vs. Essendon
Last 3 against North: 148, 162, 123 (144 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 117, 134, 137 (129 avg)

Beams
2012 avg: 116
Best 3 scores from 2012: 155 vs. Melbourne, 147 vs. Hawthorn, 137 vs. Geelong and Bulldogs
Last 3 against North: 129, 116, 86 (110 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 129, 137, 85 (117 avg)

Pendlebury
2012 avg: 110
Best 3 scores from 2012: 142 vs. Hawthorn, 133 vs. Geelong and Bulldogs
Last 3 against North: 97, 107, 141 (115 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 97, 133, 124 (118 avg)

The thoughts:

Boyd
We all know Boyd can score very well but we also know (and most of us learnt the hard way) that Boyd can provide some absolute disappointments. 5 scores under 100 last year make him a risky choice, especially if he's historically poor against a team. One of them came against Brisbane last year and that's enough for me to say no thanks. However, his general history and the fact that he's a beast means he probably will score well. Prediction - 105 Whoops! Boyd's injured... Ignore this.

Ablett
I know what you're thinking... "He scored 61 against them last year? Definitely can't choose him!" Well, you're wrong. That 61 was in that string of games last year where he just didn't give a crap. The media got to him. That will not happen again! At a ground he averages 114 against and a team he's scored well against before (although, I must admit, that 143 was probably an outlier in the other direction), he should do very well. Prediction - 120

N. Riewoldt
Played against the Suns twice: scored 136 and 126. Played at Gold Coast three times: scored 136, 110, 128. Obviously, he's a key forward so it's very hard to back him. But you could do a lot worse! Prediction - 125

Swan
His average alone from last year is better than the score you could expect from most captains. He's proven he has a RIDICULOUS ceiling. Although he didn't play them last year, his recent form against the Roos is also amazing. LOCK LOCK LOCK him in with the C. Prediction - 200 (well, more realistically, 140)

Beams
Beams was huge last year, showed he had a good ceiling, played well at Etihad and was pretty good against the Roos as well. If you have him, he's definitely worth considering. Very few poor scores so he's pretty safe as well. Prediction - 120

Pendlebury
Underpriced for his potential, a lot of teams will be featuring Pendles this year. However, he wasn't that flash against the Roos last year and is probably not your best pick. That's not saying he'll be poor though! Some big scores last year, some good Etihad performances, and his well documented consistency make him a reasonable option if you don't have the bigger guns. Prediction - 110

The verdict:

1. Swan (140)
2. Ablett (120)
3. Beams (120)
4. N. Riewoldt (125)
5. Pendlebury (110)

Requests:

Selwood - Requested by pommyadam
2012 avg: 103
Best 3 scores from 2012: 136 vs. Collingwood, 130 vs. Richmond, 125 vs. Hawthorn
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 125, 104, 91 (107 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 125, 97, 136 (119 avg)

By averages, Hawthorn are Selwood's favourite team to play. He had that huge 185 against them back in '09 and he's also had a 134 and 125 (last year) against them. However, aside from that, he hasn't topped the 110 mark. This is because Selwood is more of a consistent force than a huge captain option. Obviously, the potential is there (185 in '09, 178 in '11) but he's more likely to just do you well. He's also playing at his favourite ground, the MCG, but it's still not enough. Prediction - 110

[Toga]

Nice write-up Huggy!!

Swan is locked as my captain this week 8) Might throw the VC on Cotch just for laughs to see what he can muster up, probably won't try to utilise the loophole though...

Btw Boydy is injured so my prediction is a big, fat donut! :P

Cheers again for all your effort! :)

[LaHug]

Nice write-up Huggy!!

Swan is locked as my captain this week 8) Might throw the VC on Cotch just for laughs to see what he can muster up, probably won't try to utilise the loophole though...

Btw Boydy is injured so my prediction is a big, fat donut! :P

Cheers again for all your effort! :)

Didn't notice or hear about the Boyd injury. No idea how I missed that...
Thanks!

[Toga]

No worries mate :)

[Justin Bieber]

I really doubt Nick will score 125. Highly unlikely IMO

[LaHug]

I really doubt Nick will score 125. Highly unlikely IMO

Yeah, it doesn't seem like it's anywhere near a certainty (hence I'm shoved him below the two 120 guys). Still, what I've learnt is that numbers rarely lie. I like his chances to do well. Maybe not 125 but I just took a punt on a number. As I've always said, I only guess numbers because it was so highly requested that I do so - odds are I'll be wrong on most!

[essendon2]

Had Barlow has VC, but most likely will keep calm and lock in Swan as C

[nrich102]

Great write up La Hug. Lots of people got Swan  :o

[Bill Manspeaker]

you're a champion mate, good to see LaHug's captains back

Swannie looks to be the safe option, the one that interests me is your Riewoldt prediction. i have him in my side and although he won't be captain, i hope he scores somewhere around your prediction!

thanks mate

[Mr Micah]

great read lahug. Swan for me.

[Jalapeno]

Thanks LH  ;D

[pommyadam]

can i request Jelwood LH, always does well vs Hawthorn

[LaHug]

can i request Jelwood LH, always does well vs Hawthorn

I'll have a look tomorrow. Kinda chose going to the footy over doing an assignment so now have to stay up and do that...

[Flame]

Swannie!!!

[LaHug]

can i request Jelwood LH, always does well vs Hawthorn

Sorry it took so long. I'd done the research but never got around to writing it here... Done now!

This is also the only request I'll be doing as I'm going away without internet until about Tuesday.