Bets

[LordSneeze]

French Open Qualifiers Day 1

I have managed to get through every match on the schedule for Day 1 and I see some value at long odds, some good short price favs, but also a huge amount of risky matches where I more likely to look at overs and handicaps.

Did people want me to post all here, or move it into a new thread?

I think ill probably have about 10-15 bets on tonight + 1 huge multi.

[JBs-Hawks]

Here's good :)

[HoleMeal]

French Open Qualifiers Day 1

I have managed to get through every match on the schedule for Day 1 and I see some value at long odds, some good short price favs, but also a huge amount of risky matches where I more likely to look at overs and handicaps.

Did people want me to post all here, or move it into a new thread?

I think ill probably have about 10-15 bets on tonight + 1 huge multi.

Mate that's a committed effort! Well done  ;)

If you posted here that would be great. I will be following all your bets and see how we do!

Cheers.

[LordSneeze]

French Open Qualifiers Day 1
Okay here are the first ones I’ll be taking on (Ill update this post with more once I source the bet odds). Not putting a multi on them all as some are pretty outlandish bets.

Copil vs Shapovalov
Copil @ 1.42 on Sportsbet

Copil while not a specialist Clay Court player is still fairly comfortable on the surface. He has beaten Monterio (Whom I rate on clay), Lost a close match to Bautista Agut, Donaldson & Matched Murray for the most part. While Clay is statistically his worst surface in Challenger & ATP it was his best at ITF level. I put this down to the fact he takes more risks on Clay, putting himself into tournaments that are higher than his current levels. Shapovalov on the other hand has not set the world alight in the leadup and has only won once on Clay outside ITF level.
I do not expect it to be insanely one sided but Copil should win.

De Loore vs Chen
Chen @ $8 on TabTouch with a hedge of Chen at the line +5.5 @ 2.10 on Sportsbet
De Loore has had a few good wins in the leadup, but retirement in the last match puts a little bit of doubt in my mind, while Chen is clearly not a claycourter. He hasn’t played a match on the surface all year, but is coming in with form and 2 challenger titles under his belt. The odds on Chen are insane in this match.

Travaglia vs Gojowczyk
Gojowczyk @ 3.75 on Sportsbet or Over 20.5 @ 1.83 on Crownbet
Travaglia is a Clay Court Specialist. He has been in brilliant form with 2 clay titles this year. Gojowczyk hasn't played since March and no clay court matches under his belt, but is a much better player than his current ranking.

Daniel vs Moriya
Moriya @ $17 on Crownbet
This value is just too good to pass up, no one should be at these odds in tennis betting. I do not expect Moriya to win, but I had this at a 4:1 chance not 17!!!

Opelka vs Munoz De La Nava
Opelka @ 1.36 on Crownbet
I really like Opelka, he is an up and coming superstar IMO while Munoz is an elder statesman that really hasn’t been in the greatest of form. It is possible to see an upset here, but I do not think it will happen.

Mayer vs Souza
Over 21.5 @ 1.80 on Luxbet
Evey match these 2 have played (7) has gone to a final set and been close. Over is the logical choice given neither have been in the greatest of form.

Rola vs Basic
Rola 2-0 @ 2 on Sportsbet
Rola has been in good form recently, while Basic really has never set the world alight. I expect Rola to win this easily so will take him 2-0 at $2

Fabbiano vs Tsitsipas
Fabbiano @ 2.13 on Crownbet
Fabbiano has been around the game for wuite a while and results in the last few weeks aren’t the best his stats in the matches have been pretty solid. Tsitipas is another up and comer that really could take this win, but I feel that Fabbiano should be the slight favourite in this match

Becker vs Djere
Becker @ 5.40 on Sportsbet
Both players have had some big scalps over the recent weeks, so it is difficult to tell which one will come out. Becker has been a top player prevoiously so isn’t going to be overwhelmed by the GS tag. Should be fairly close so the odds are too good to ignore IMO.

Cervantes vs Caruso
Caruso @ 1.56 on Sportsbet
Cervantes has not won a match yet this year while Caruso has been impressive in his wins and tough losses against some top 100 players.

Gabashvili vs Carballes Baena
Gabashvili @ 2.42 on Sportsbet or Under 22.5 @ 1.8
These odds appear to be favouring Baena because he is a clay courter and is pretty well discounting the current form of the players. Gabashvili is a previous consistent top 100 player and has been in reasonable form the last month.
I don’t expect this to go to 3 sets and at Gabashvili’s odds he is probably worth a bet aswell.

Multis
Caruso
Copil
GOJ Over
Opelka
Fabbiano
Gabashvili

Stake @ 26.25 on Crownbet

+ extra with Moriya & Chen (Never expect this to even get close as impled probability is like 0.03% chance)
Half Stake @ 3307.70 on Crownbet

[LordSneeze]

French Open Qualifiers Day 1

I have managed to get through every match on the schedule for Day 1 and I see some value at long odds, some good short price favs, but also a huge amount of risky matches where I more likely to look at overs and handicaps.

Did people want me to post all here, or move it into a new thread?

I think ill probably have about 10-15 bets on tonight + 1 huge multi.

Mate that's a committed effort! Well done  ;)

If you posted here that would be great. I will be following all your bets and see how we do!

Cheers.

Well hopefully it will be worth it. I only do it for the GS as there are so many matches that a lot of the time people completely miss the value bets and fall in line with the bookies odds.

Really we could come out really well, or just lose everything. That is the risk with betting. Only ever bet what you are willing to lose.

[jvalles69]

Thanks for the tips LS, will trail ya on a few.  :)

[LordSneeze]

Thanks for the tips LS, will trail ya on a few.  :)

Hope you pick the right ones as the chance all get up is a massive 153961:1

[HoleMeal]

I have multied a few and had a good go at Nadal into the Dogs and Cats this weekend.

thanks again LS  ;)

[LordSneeze]

Been a frustrating run.
Rola lost first in tiebreak then fell in a hole
Moriya lost first in tiebreak then collapsed
Fabiano up a set and break then only won 3 more games
Becker was a set all with momentum then lost 3rd easy.

Every match had good chances and all lost. Especially frustrating as 2 were the long odds chances.

[HoleMeal]

Been a frustrating run.
Rola lost first in tiebreak then fell in a hole
Moriya lost first in tiebreak then collapsed
Fabiano up a set and break then only won 3 more games
Becker was a set all with momentum then lost 3rd easy.

Every match had good chances and all lost. Especially frustrating as 2 were the long odds chances.

Gotta be in it to win it.
See what tomorrow brings.

[LordSneeze]

Day 1
When analysing how I go I normally separate Multi spend to single spends, as multis have a much greater variance, you might lose 15 before winning one.

Singles I was down $1.50 from $65 staked.
Multi’s I was down $7.50 from $7.50 staked.

Pretty happy after all that, only slightly down, but could have been up quite a bit if for a bit of luck.

Only 1 of the losses do I class as a poor choice. Over on the Mayer vs Souza match.
The longer odds were always going to be difficult, but with a bit of luck 1 or 2 of those would have got up
Fabbiano should have won which would have got me his single & the multi.



Its annoying the site went down as ive had a better day today that would have seen some winners.

Singles
Bemelmans @ 3.04 - Lost in the 3rd after winning the first
Donati @ 1.50 - Win
Kostova (double stake) @ 1.66 - Won comfortably
Jang @ 4.50 - Win
Jang +5.5 @ 1.97 - Win (Was hedging the above)
Pavlasek @ 1.22 - Loss in a tight 3 setter, screwed my multi too
Zebalos @ 1.61 - Won in a close one.
Teichmann vs Broady Under 21 @ 1.85 - Win

Multis
Bemelmans into Donati @ 4.46 - Was always gonna be tough, but had a chance when up a set.
Zeballos into Kostova into Jang into Pavlasek @ 14.58 - Never thought Pavlasek would lose and that was the only leg i missed.

Ive recovered yesterday 3 stake deficit with a 4 stake gain today, but again it was a case of just missing out on the large multi win to push into strong returns.
So far on singles im +26.75 (5.3 stakes), but only up 1 stake overall because of the multi losses.

Should i keep going with the multis or just focus on the singles?

[HoleMeal]

DAMN I got close  :D

[HoleMeal]

Day 1
When analysing how I go I normally separate Multi spend to single spends, as multis have a much greater variance, you might lose 15 before winning one.

Singles I was down $1.50 from $65 staked.
Multi’s I was down $7.50 from $7.50 staked.

Pretty happy after all that, only slightly down, but could have been up quite a bit if for a bit of luck.

Only 1 of the losses do I class as a poor choice. Over on the Mayer vs Souza match.
The longer odds were always going to be difficult, but with a bit of luck 1 or 2 of those would have got up
Fabbiano should have won which would have got me his single & the multi.



Its annoying the site went down as ive had a better day today that would have seen some winners.

Singles
Bemelmans @ 3.04 - Lost in the 3rd after winning the first
Donati @ 1.50 - Win
Kostova (double stake) @ 1.66 - Won comfortably
Jang @ 4.50 - Win
Jang +5.5 @ 1.97 - Win (Was hedging the above)
Pavlasek @ 1.22 - Loss in a tight 3 setter, screwed my multi too
Zebalos @ 1.61 - Won in a close one.
Teichmann vs Broady Under 21 @ 1.85 - Win

Multis
Bemelmans into Donati @ 4.46 - Was always gonna be tough, but had a chance when up a set.
Zeballos into Kostova into Jang into Pavlasek @ 14.58 - Never thought Pavlasek would lose and that was the only leg i missed.

Ive recovered yesterday 3 stake deficit with a 4 stake gain today, but again it was a case of just missing out on the large multi win to push into strong returns.
So far on singles im +26.75 (5.3 stakes), but only up 1 stake overall because of the multi losses.

Should i keep going with the multis or just focus on the singles?

We will only need 1 to be way in front!

Good you are in front and with a little luck would be way ahead.

Thanks again!

[LordSneeze]

Wow high roller, now I really wish that Fabbiano one had got up, But yeah you only need 1 to be well in front.

My bankroll started at $250, good bankroll management is crucial to be infront long term, unless you are just a brilliant selector or just plain lucky all the time.
My current setup is where my bet stakes change depending on what my bankroll is.
I increase when I hit 50x stake at the next level (increasing in $1 increments) and drop if I fall to 45 stakes on the level below.
So if I hit $300 I increase to $6, if I hit $180 I drop to $4. Essentially this means that when I go through a rough patch I won't lose my whole bankroll, but when I have good runs my stakes increase.

[HoleMeal]

Wow high roller, now I really wish that Fabbiano one had got up, But yeah you only need 1 to be well in front.

My bankroll started at $250, good bankroll management is crucial to be infront long term, unless you are just a brilliant selector or just plain lucky all the time.
My current setup is where my bet stakes change depending on what my bankroll is.
I increase when I hit 50x stake at the next level (increasing in $1 increments) and drop if I fall to 45 stakes on the level below.
So if I hit $300 I increase to $6, if I hit $180 I drop to $4. Essentially this means that when I go through a rough patch I won't lose my whole bankroll, but when I have good runs my stakes increase.

Yeah that's the smart way to go. Always in control.