Bets

[jvalles69]

heavy rain expected this weekend get on the unders total points for MCG games

Cheers.

I got on Swans 40+ at $8 against Roos last week, it paid off.  Swans again are $8 for 40+ against Saints...last 4 games Swans have beaten Saints by over 40 points. Super value!

Saints have played some good footy this season though, can't fault the value on that though!

Got a $50 bonus bet, gonna see how much I can turn it in to over the course of the wkend

My multi for the week: Swans +40; Cats straight; Crows -46.5; Giants -29.5; Hawks +11.5; Roos +13.5.

Wish me luck!

[R.Griffen]

heavy rain expected this weekend get on the unders total points for MCG games

Cheers.

I got on Swans 40+ at $8 against Roos last week, it paid off.  Swans again are $8 for 40+ against Saints...last 4 games Swans have beaten Saints by over 40 points. Super value!

Saints have played some good footy this season though, can't fault the value on that though!

Got a $50 bonus bet, gonna see how much I can turn it in to over the course of the wkend

My multi for the week: Swans +40; Cats straight; Crows -46.5; Giants -29.5; Hawks +11.5; Roos +13.5.

Wish me luck!

Looks good except Giants won't win :o

[jvalles69]

heavy rain expected this weekend get on the unders total points for MCG games

Cheers.

I got on Swans 40+ at $8 against Roos last week, it paid off.  Swans again are $8 for 40+ against Saints...last 4 games Swans have beaten Saints by over 40 points. Super value!

Saints have played some good footy this season though, can't fault the value on that though!

Got a $50 bonus bet, gonna see how much I can turn it in to over the course of the wkend

My multi for the week: Swans +40; Cats straight; Crows -46.5; Giants -29.5; Hawks +11.5; Roos +13.5.

Wish me luck!

Looks good except Giants won't win :o

Greene back will make a big difference, he's a match winner.

[Rusty00]

Okay so lets get some tennis bets going. I will provide my justifications for each pick. All odds are from sportsbet, but a lot of the time I will search for the best odds on multiple sites before placing.

Remember to take these with a grain of salt as they are all my own opinion and for all I know I might get them all wrong. If following only bet responsibly and only what you are willing to lose.

Overall not seeing a huge amount about for tomorrow yet, but im only looking at main matches until the FO qualies start in a week.


Nadal vs Almagro
Nadal -6.5 @ $2.25
Nadal is clearly the best clay court player currently and arguably in history. While many people will look at this line and go 6.5 is too much. I however see this as great value for the odds. So far this clay court season Nadal is 15-0 and has cleared the -6.5 line in 7/15 matches which lines up with the odds, but looking at the players who have covered that (Thiem, Djokovic, Goffin, Fognini, Zeballos, Chung, Anderson & Schwartzman) only 2 actually surprise me (Zeballos & Chung) who are both good movers with heavy shots.
Almagro is a Clay Court Elder Statesman and has dropped well off the pace of his highs in years gone by. Nadals movement and shot speed is likely to be too much for Almagro in the rallies so I see quite a few breaks in this match and wouldn’t be surpised to see something nearing a 6-2 6-2 win or similar.  I just cannot see how he can threaten Nadal.


Siegemund vs Halep
Over 20.5 @ 1.72
Both players are in very good form over the last 2 weeks, each with a title under their belts. While Halep can destroy players Siegemund counters this well. She is someone that shows resilience to fightback from difficult positions. Combined these players are 10/16 over 20.5 in the last 2 weeks. The majority of those under have been Halep comfortable wins. I don’t expect Siegemund to win, but I do expect her to keep is somewhat close with the potential to steal a set.

Noted and multied.

Thanks for the in depth write up too. Be good to follow a few games plus with Man City almost tying up top4 in the EPL I now have some $$ to invest.  ;D

These are now gone.
Nadal has moved to +5.5 @ 1.70. While still reasonable value if he gets +5.5 I expect him to get the +6.5. Id wait and hope it comes back up.

Over 20.5 has moved to Over 21.5 @ 2 - The 21.5 line is my most disliked. as it doesn't align nicely with the potential set scores, ultimately it requires a tiebreak or 3rd set (2 outcomes) to win most of the time. The 20.5 allows for a 7-5 either way, tiebreak or 3rd set (4 Outcomes), the 2 less ways to have a good chance to win isn't worth only a 28% increase in return..

They were gone on Sportsbet when I looked but Crownbet had Nadal -5.5 @ 1.88 and Over 20.5 @ 1.92 so not much below you're original odds when multi'd.

If you get a 7-5, 6-4 match gets you to over 21.5 ;)

[Hawka]

thought Ryan Burton would be a bigger fav for rising star

has been better than SPP imo

Cheeky $5 on him at start of the year

[LordSneeze]

Yeah I always crosscheck with CB before placing as they have better odds on the outsiders most of the time.

[R.Griffen]

Siegemund vs Halep
Over 20.5 @ 1.72

No good sadly. Got extremely close. Pretty crazy second set with 7 breaks out of 10 games

ended 4-6, 4-6

[LordSneeze]

Siegemund vs Halep
Over 20.5 @ 1.72

No good sadly. Got extremely close. Pretty crazy second set with 7 breaks out of 10 games

ended 4-6, 4-6

Match went pretty much exactly how i expected. Tightly fought with Siegemund fighting till the end.

Really quite unlucky to not get it over the line as all that was needed was to win one more game in either set and it would have forced it over 21.5.

Siegemund was slightly off her game too. 35 unforced errors in 2 sets is alot.

[Rusty00]

So appears as if Amalgro retired after 3 games.....

[LordSneeze]

So appears as if Amalgro retired after 3 games.....

Yep did his knee. Nadal was looking really good to wallop him too. Sometimes you just have some bad luck and appears that was the case with both matches.

[AaronKirk]

A couple of markets to play in the Thiem v Cuevas match in Rome. They played in the Semi's last week in Madrid with Thiem winning 6-4, 6-4

Then he played a pretty decent match in his loss against Nadal in the final.

A couple of plays for me. Thiem to win 2 sets to 0 is $1.91 and the under 22.5 Total Match games $1.72

I'll be chucking these in separate multis with David Goffin to beat Marin Cilic  1.83. Goffin leads the H2H 3-1 and playing in much better form)

And also the Carreno Busta v Bautista Agut match to go over 22.5 games @ 1.88. They have played twice. Once was the 2015 US open which went 5 sets and the other last year in Winston-Salem was a 2-1 set win for Carreno Busta. 2 of those sets were tie breakers and the other 6-4

[LordSneeze]

I agree on the Thiem & Goffin picks. Goffin over Cilic is awesome value.

As for Carreno Busta match neither are in great form and comparing vs those matches is difficult as they were on HC while both are pure clay courters. I cannot pick what will happen in that match so i am staying away.

[AaronKirk]

I agree on the Thiem & Goffin picks. Goffin over Cilic is awesome value.

As for Carreno Busta match neither are in great form and comparing vs those matches is difficult as they were on HC while both are pure clay courters. I cannot pick what will happen in that match so i am staying away.

Bautista Agut isn't a pure clay courter. He hits the ball very flat and prefers hard courts. 9 of his 11 ATP finals have been on hard courts. 3 titles on hard courts, 1 on clay, 1 on grass.

Carreno Busta's best ATP results (2 titles, Indian Wells Semi finals and US Open doubles final) have been on hard courts but is a more traditional European clay courter.

[LordSneeze]

I agree on the Thiem & Goffin picks. Goffin over Cilic is awesome value.

As for Carreno Busta match neither are in great form and comparing vs those matches is difficult as they were on HC while both are pure clay courters. I cannot pick what will happen in that match so i am staying away.

Bautista Agut isn't a pure clay courter. He hits the ball very flat and prefers hard courts. 9 of his 11 ATP finals have been on hard courts. 3 titles on hard courts, 1 on clay, 1 on grass.

Carreno Busta's best ATP results (2 titles, Indian Wells Semi finals and US Open doubles final) have been on hard courts but is a more traditional European clay courter.

Cool. Ive always classed him as a clay courter, but could be wrong.
Thiem won 2-0
Thiem Games over 22.5
Carreno games over 22.5

2 out of 3 with 1 left
I jumped on Thiem 2-0 and Goffin. So only 1 leg left.

[AaronKirk]

The 2 Multi's I had were Thiem sets 2-0, Carreno Busta/Bautista Agut Over 22.5 games, Goffin H2H.

The other one was Thiem/Cuevas under 22.5 games, Carreno Busta/Bautista Agut Over 22.5 games, Goffin H2H

Thiem won 7-6, 6-4. Keeps multi 1 alive and kills multi 2. There were 23 games played.
Carreno Busta/Bautista Agut Over 22.5 was easy. Went 30 games
Come on Goffin!