Bets

[R.Griffen]

Could have got $2.25 with a number of corporates for Rafa to win the French Open.

After he dismantled Novak Djokovic in the Madrid Masters last night he is into $2.

Murray and Djokovic playing poorly, Wawrinka way out of form, Federer having not played a single clay court match yet conceding he is only using the French as a match practice tool for Wimbledon.

And there is no one else that can touch Nadal on Clay. $2.25 looked a steal and was taken. $2 in the outright markets still looks good odds.

I got him at $3.50 a couple months ago. Waiting to see what they give out for him not losing a set, however saying that Thiem is pretty good on Clay so if he managed to get one off him tonight I wouldn't be surprised

[LordSneeze]

Could have got $2.25 with a number of corporates for Rafa to win the French Open.

After he dismantled Novak Djokovic in the Madrid Masters last night he is into $2.

Murray and Djokovic playing poorly, Wawrinka way out of form, Federer having not played a single clay court match yet conceding he is only using the French as a match practice tool for Wimbledon.

And there is no one else that can touch Nadal on Clay. $2.25 looked a steal and was taken. $2 in the outright markets still looks good odds.

I got him at $3.50 a couple months ago. Waiting to see what they give out for him not losing a set, however saying that Thiem is pretty good on Clay so if he managed to get one off him tonight I wouldn't be surprised.

I cannot see anyone else who I can realistically see winning unless Nadal goes down in a huge upset in the first week.
Djokovic can win if someone takes Nadal out in the first week, I cannot see him beating him. Similar thing with Murray, Wawrinka etc.
Theim I feel is the only one that can match him on Clay, but Nadal would need to be off slightly to lose it over 5 sets

I can understand the $3.50 bet as I would have got onto that aswell, but $2 is way too short to even consider. While I would expect Nadal to win, there is no value in those odds and betting is a value game.
I would be pricing Nadal at around a $2.25-$2.50 chance to win, so if I could get it above those odds id take it on.

FYI Sportsbet now have him into $1.91

[LaHug]

$2 is terrible odds considering Nadal's injury history.

[Dave085]

Was just researching and found myself an arber that I quickly jumped on

Popko vs Kudraytsev
Popko was 1.79 on Sportsbet
Kudraytsev was 2.46 on Crownbet

Guarenteed 6.23% return. BOOM

Sportsbet pushed it into live betting like 30 seconds after I placed mine, so got very lucky with timing.

I come from a family of bookmakers.

This is exactly what you do to make money/turn a profit. It's not gambling, it's playing the percentages.

Do this long enough and you will have a LOT of fun for little to no risk.

My brother makes a living doing this, using Betfair.com to lay things.

Nice work LS. Will follow your tennis bets...could almost make a new thread!  ;)

Can you simplify the percentages for us or what formula they used to maximise profits? 
I really can't use my brain right now to fugure out where it would be worth trying this?

[LordSneeze]

Was just researching and found myself an arber that I quickly jumped on

Popko vs Kudraytsev
Popko was 1.79 on Sportsbet
Kudraytsev was 2.46 on Crownbet

Guarenteed 6.23% return. BOOM

Sportsbet pushed it into live betting like 30 seconds after I placed mine, so got very lucky with timing.

I come from a family of bookmakers.

This is exactly what you do to make money/turn a profit. It's not gambling, it's playing the percentages.

Do this long enough and you will have a LOT of fun for little to no risk.

My brother makes a living doing this, using Betfair.com to lay things.

Nice work LS. Will follow your tennis bets...could almost make a new thread!  ;)

Can you simplify the percentages for us or what formula they used to maximise profits? 
I really can't use my brain right now to fugure out where it would be worth trying this?

For formula used to work out the second stake is
Stake * (Fav odds / Outsider odds)

So in the case above it is
$10 * (1.79/2.46) = $7.28
This is your second stake

To workout if it is profitable you go
(Initial stake * Favourite odds) Minus First and second stakes
In this case
(10*1.79) - 10 - 7.28
=0.62c profit if either win.

[Dave085]

Was just researching and found myself an arber that I quickly jumped on

Popko vs Kudraytsev
Popko was 1.79 on Sportsbet
Kudraytsev was 2.46 on Crownbet

Guarenteed 6.23% return. BOOM

Sportsbet pushed it into live betting like 30 seconds after I placed mine, so got very lucky with timing.

I come from a family of bookmakers.

This is exactly what you do to make money/turn a profit. It's not gambling, it's playing the percentages.

Do this long enough and you will have a LOT of fun for little to no risk.

My brother makes a living doing this, using Betfair.com to lay things.

Nice work LS. Will follow your tennis bets...could almost make a new thread!  ;)

Can you simplify the percentages for us or what formula they used to maximise profits? 
I really can't use my brain right now to fugure out where it would be worth trying this?

For formula used to work out the second stake is
Stake * (Fav odds / Outsider odds)

So in the case above it is
$10 * (1.79/2.46) = $7.28
This is your second stake

To workout if it is profitable you go
(Initial stake * Favourite odds) Minus First and second stakes
In this case
(10*1.79) - 10 - 7.28
=0.62c profit if either win.

Thank you!

[WhatMate]

I use this..

http://www.aussportsbetting.com/tools/online-calculators/arbitrage-calculator/

Can never really ever find my on arbitrage bets though, use it more for hedge bets or when there are boosted favourites on bookmakers etc.

Also could you explain to me the difference between betfair and any other bookie? hear betfair pop up every now and then

[LordSneeze]

Okay so lets get some tennis bets going. I will provide my justifications for each pick. All odds are from sportsbet, but a lot of the time I will search for the best odds on multiple sites before placing.

Remember to take these with a grain of salt as they are all my own opinion and for all I know I might get them all wrong. If following only bet responsibly and only what you are willing to lose.

Overall not seeing a huge amount about for tomorrow yet, but im only looking at main matches until the FO qualies start in a week.


Nadal vs Almagro
Nadal -6.5 @ $2.25
Nadal is clearly the best clay court player currently and arguably in history. While many people will look at this line and go 6.5 is too much. I however see this as great value for the odds. So far this clay court season Nadal is 15-0 and has cleared the -6.5 line in 7/15 matches which lines up with the odds, but looking at the players who have covered that (Thiem, Djokovic, Goffin, Fognini, Zeballos, Chung, Anderson & Schwartzman) only 2 actually surprise me (Zeballos & Chung) who are both good movers with heavy shots.
Almagro is a Clay Court Elder Statesman and has dropped well off the pace of his highs in years gone by. Nadals movement and shot speed is likely to be too much for Almagro in the rallies so I see quite a few breaks in this match and wouldn’t be surpised to see something nearing a 6-2 6-2 win or similar.  I just cannot see how he can threaten Nadal.


Siegemund vs Halep
Over 20.5 @ 1.72
Both players are in very good form over the last 2 weeks, each with a title under their belts. While Halep can destroy players Siegemund counters this well. She is someone that shows resilience to fightback from difficult positions. Combined these players are 10/16 over 20.5 in the last 2 weeks. The majority of those under have been Halep comfortable wins. I don’t expect Siegemund to win, but I do expect her to keep is somewhat close with the potential to steal a set.

[kilbluff1985]

thought Ryan Burton would be a bigger fav for rising star

has been better than SPP imo

[HoleMeal]

Okay so lets get some tennis bets going. I will provide my justifications for each pick. All odds are from sportsbet, but a lot of the time I will search for the best odds on multiple sites before placing.

Remember to take these with a grain of salt as they are all my own opinion and for all I know I might get them all wrong. If following only bet responsibly and only what you are willing to lose.

Overall not seeing a huge amount about for tomorrow yet, but im only looking at main matches until the FO qualies start in a week.


Nadal vs Almagro
Nadal -6.5 @ $2.25
Nadal is clearly the best clay court player currently and arguably in history. While many people will look at this line and go 6.5 is too much. I however see this as great value for the odds. So far this clay court season Nadal is 15-0 and has cleared the -6.5 line in 7/15 matches which lines up with the odds, but looking at the players who have covered that (Thiem, Djokovic, Goffin, Fognini, Zeballos, Chung, Anderson & Schwartzman) only 2 actually surprise me (Zeballos & Chung) who are both good movers with heavy shots.
Almagro is a Clay Court Elder Statesman and has dropped well off the pace of his highs in years gone by. Nadals movement and shot speed is likely to be too much for Almagro in the rallies so I see quite a few breaks in this match and wouldn’t be surpised to see something nearing a 6-2 6-2 win or similar.  I just cannot see how he can threaten Nadal.


Siegemund vs Halep
Over 20.5 @ 1.72
Both players are in very good form over the last 2 weeks, each with a title under their belts. While Halep can destroy players Siegemund counters this well. She is someone that shows resilience to fightback from difficult positions. Combined these players are 10/16 over 20.5 in the last 2 weeks. The majority of those under have been Halep comfortable wins. I don’t expect Siegemund to win, but I do expect her to keep is somewhat close with the potential to steal a set.

Noted and multied.

Thanks for the in depth write up too. Be good to follow a few games plus with Man City almost tying up top4 in the EPL I now have some $$ to invest.  ;D

[elephants]

thought Ryan Burton would be a bigger fav for rising star

has been better than SPP imo

Always some extra weight given to first year players in voting imo

[kilbluff1985]

heavy rain expected this weekend get on the unders total points for MCG games

[jvalles69]

heavy rain expected this weekend get on the unders total points for MCG games

Cheers.

I got on Swans 40+ at $8 against Roos last week, it paid off.  Swans again are $8 for 40+ against Saints...last 4 games Swans have beaten Saints by over 40 points. Super value!

[LordSneeze]

Okay so lets get some tennis bets going. I will provide my justifications for each pick. All odds are from sportsbet, but a lot of the time I will search for the best odds on multiple sites before placing.

Remember to take these with a grain of salt as they are all my own opinion and for all I know I might get them all wrong. If following only bet responsibly and only what you are willing to lose.

Overall not seeing a huge amount about for tomorrow yet, but im only looking at main matches until the FO qualies start in a week.


Nadal vs Almagro
Nadal -6.5 @ $2.25
Nadal is clearly the best clay court player currently and arguably in history. While many people will look at this line and go 6.5 is too much. I however see this as great value for the odds. So far this clay court season Nadal is 15-0 and has cleared the -6.5 line in 7/15 matches which lines up with the odds, but looking at the players who have covered that (Thiem, Djokovic, Goffin, Fognini, Zeballos, Chung, Anderson & Schwartzman) only 2 actually surprise me (Zeballos & Chung) who are both good movers with heavy shots.
Almagro is a Clay Court Elder Statesman and has dropped well off the pace of his highs in years gone by. Nadals movement and shot speed is likely to be too much for Almagro in the rallies so I see quite a few breaks in this match and wouldn’t be surpised to see something nearing a 6-2 6-2 win or similar.  I just cannot see how he can threaten Nadal.


Siegemund vs Halep
Over 20.5 @ 1.72
Both players are in very good form over the last 2 weeks, each with a title under their belts. While Halep can destroy players Siegemund counters this well. She is someone that shows resilience to fightback from difficult positions. Combined these players are 10/16 over 20.5 in the last 2 weeks. The majority of those under have been Halep comfortable wins. I don’t expect Siegemund to win, but I do expect her to keep is somewhat close with the potential to steal a set.

Noted and multied.

Thanks for the in depth write up too. Be good to follow a few games plus with Man City almost tying up top4 in the EPL I now have some $$ to invest.  ;D

These are now gone.
Nadal has moved to +5.5 @ 1.70. While still reasonable value if he gets +5.5 I expect him to get the +6.5. Id wait and hope it comes back up.

Over 20.5 has moved to Over 21.5 @ 2 - The 21.5 line is my most disliked. as it doesn't align nicely with the potential set scores, ultimately it requires a tiebreak or 3rd set (2 outcomes) to win most of the time. The 20.5 allows for a 7-5 either way, tiebreak or 3rd set (4 Outcomes), the 2 less ways to have a good chance to win isn't worth only a 28% increase in return..

[elephants]

heavy rain expected this weekend get on the unders total points for MCG games

Cheers.

I got on Swans 40+ at $8 against Roos last week, it paid off.  Swans again are $8 for 40+ against Saints...last 4 games Swans have beaten Saints by over 40 points. Super value!

Saints have played some good footy this season though, can't fault the value on that though!

Got a $50 bonus bet, gonna see how much I can turn it in to over the course of the wkend