Bets

[PowerBug]

Labor to win the election at $6 is worth a bet. Below is a summary of why

A lot of the polling coming out uses 2013 preference flows which are not going to be the same. If you look at recent state elections the preference flows have been better for Labor which will help them federally.

I can see Labor winning the seats of Capricornia, Petrie and potentially Brisbane, Herbert and Longman in Queensland.

They should win Solomon in the NT, Eden-Monaro, Robertson, Page, Macarthur and probably Reid from polling I have seen in NSW.

They are unlikely but could win win La Trobe, Dunkley and Deakin in Victoria

Will likely Hindmarsh in SA and could win Cowan, Hasluck and Burt in WA.

They will win back Fairfax of Palmer in Qld and could lose Higgins to the Greens in Victoria. That leaves the Coalition on 77 seats out of 150. If Labor win the unlikely but close seats of Latrobe, Dunkley, Deakin, Brisbane, Herbert and Longman the Coalition will be on will be on 72 to ALP 73 (Labor to gain the 17 seats above but lose will lose the Melbourne seat of Batman to the Greens)

If they then lose Mayo, Barker and Grey which on polling they will to the Xenophon Party (the X man could win a lot more seats) in SA they will be on 69-75 seats - the Coalition cannot govern on their own then - 1 member needs to be the speaker which leaves it as 74 Coalition to 75 others

Oh, that doesn't take into account that Windsor and Oakeshott could win the seats of New England and Cowper. That pulls the Coalition to 67-73 seats with a crossbench of 3 greens (Melbourne, Higgins, Batman), 4 independents (Oakeshott, Windsor, McGowan and Wilkie), 3 Xenophon MPs and Bob Katter.

I'm predicting a hung parliament that will support Labor.

That is a conservative estimate based on polling and opinions of psephologists I have read.

That is sort of why I think the $6 for the ALP is worth a bet.

out to $7.50 which I put $4 on. Still feeling Labor AK?

[kilbluff1985]

mids do wells vs Carlton so i'm on Sidebottom to get 35+ touches @9.50

[Big Mac]

nah he is potato

[kilbluff1985]

nah he is potato

confirmed

[AaronKirk]

Labor to win the election at $6 is worth a bet. Below is a summary of why

A lot of the polling coming out uses 2013 preference flows which are not going to be the same. If you look at recent state elections the preference flows have been better for Labor which will help them federally.

I can see Labor winning the seats of Capricornia, Petrie and potentially Brisbane, Herbert and Longman in Queensland.

They should win Solomon in the NT, Eden-Monaro, Robertson, Page, Macarthur and probably Reid from polling I have seen in NSW.

They are unlikely but could win win La Trobe, Dunkley and Deakin in Victoria

Will likely Hindmarsh in SA and could win Cowan, Hasluck and Burt in WA.

They will win back Fairfax of Palmer in Qld and could lose Higgins to the Greens in Victoria. That leaves the Coalition on 77 seats out of 150. If Labor win the unlikely but close seats of Latrobe, Dunkley, Deakin, Brisbane, Herbert and Longman the Coalition will be on will be on 72 to ALP 73 (Labor to gain the 17 seats above but lose will lose the Melbourne seat of Batman to the Greens)

If they then lose Mayo, Barker and Grey which on polling they will to the Xenophon Party (the X man could win a lot more seats) in SA they will be on 69-75 seats - the Coalition cannot govern on their own then - 1 member needs to be the speaker which leaves it as 74 Coalition to 75 others

Oh, that doesn't take into account that Windsor and Oakeshott could win the seats of New England and Cowper. That pulls the Coalition to 67-73 seats with a crossbench of 3 greens (Melbourne, Higgins, Batman), 4 independents (Oakeshott, Windsor, McGowan and Wilkie), 3 Xenophon MPs and Bob Katter.

I'm predicting a hung parliament that will support Labor.

That is a conservative estimate based on polling and opinions of psephologists I have read.

That is sort of why I think the $6 for the ALP is worth a bet.

out to $7.50 which I put $4 on. Still feeling Labor AK?

I wish I had put a $50 or $100 on it. Kicking myself now.

[PowerBug]

What happens if we vote again?

Should probably elaborate, I bet at the TAB, not online. Will my bet slip of Shorten to be PM after the election still be valid if we have another election?

[kilbluff1985]

so GC no GAJ this week thinking WB will smash them

[The_Captain]

so GC no GAJ this week thinking WB will smash them

31.5- is the line, multying that up with saints at 2.00 and its gives some good odds to a multi. Adding sydney to win, adelaide to win eagles 1-40, paying 15 bucks. See how it goes!

[Big Mac]

Can you not cash out Brownlow bets after a while? Still gives me the option to cash out a rising star bet from 3 months ago but not a Brownlow bet from 2 months ago

[Big Mac]

On sportsbet

[strikes91]

Who did you bet on.

[Big Mac]

Jelwood, don't actually want to cash it out just curious

[My Chumps]

I can still cash out on bets on Parker, Pendles and Toby Greene, but can't for Danger (or Fyfe, but that's to be expected). Bit odd. All were put on at the start of the season.

[The_Captain]

I can still cash out on bets on Parker, Pendles and Toby Greene, but can't for Danger (or Fyfe, but that's to be expected). Bit odd. All were put on at the start of the season.

Surely you should be able to cash out danger! Dodgy if you cant.

[kilbluff1985]

no Prestia either now on top of GAJ and Rischitelli

so got on Dogs line -80.5 @8.50