Bets

[jvalles69]

Also the same reasoning I think Goldy is going to poll well this year.

[Rusty00]

Usually polls terribly though doesn't he?

Yes, but he is clearly in career best form and has back to back lock 3 vote games plus the previous 2 weeks where he will likely poll votes to have him right up there with Ward.

The media start talking about his form which started last year and was not rewarded by the umps and then players can generally be compensated more if they continue or improve their form in the following year.

The above point is probably why Danger is favorite for the Brownlow even though he clearly isn't leading the votes IMO at his club, let alone the competition to this point.

Out of curiosity AK, how do you have Coniglio sitting at the moment in comparison?

[AaronKirk]

Usually polls terribly though doesn't he?

Yes, but he is clearly in career best form and has back to back lock 3 vote games plus the previous 2 weeks where he will likely poll votes to have him right up there with Ward.

The media start talking about his form which started last year and was not rewarded by the umps and then players can generally be compensated more if they continue or improve their form in the following year.

The above point is probably why Danger is favorite for the Brownlow even though he clearly isn't leading the votes IMO at his club, let alone the competition to this point.

Out of curiosity AK, how do you have Coniglio sitting at the moment in comparison?

I have Coniglio on 5 votes. He is having a very good year.

[LaHug]

Gold Coast have an average losing margin of 87 over their last 5, you can get the Swans -85.5 @ $10. Someone tell me why this is a bad idea! Also, the closest they've been in that time is 74 points. Swans -73.5 is @ $5.40

[PowerBug]

Gold Coast have an average losing margin of 87 over their last 5, you can get the Swans -85.5 @ $10. Someone tell me why this is a bad idea! Also, the closest they've been in that time is 74 points. Swans -73.5 is @ $5.40

They could be getting 7 players back this week. Hall and GAJ have had a warm up match after their week off and are hopefully ready to go as well :) Would take the Suns on that line

[kilbluff1985]

Gold Coast have an average losing margin of 87 over their last 5, you can get the Swans -85.5 @ $10. Someone tell me why this is a bad idea! Also, the closest they've been in that time is 74 points. Swans -73.5 is @ $5.40

They could be getting 7 players back this week. Hall and GAJ have had a warm up match after their week off and are hopefully ready to go as well :) Would take the Suns on that line

sometimes a huge number of ins like that upsets the team balance also

[PowerBug]

Gold Coast have an average losing margin of 87 over their last 5, you can get the Swans -85.5 @ $10. Someone tell me why this is a bad idea! Also, the closest they've been in that time is 74 points. Swans -73.5 is @ $5.40

They could be getting 7 players back this week. Hall and GAJ have had a warm up match after their week off and are hopefully ready to go as well :) Would take the Suns on that line

sometimes a huge number of ins like that upsets the team balance also

Agreed, but the Gold Coast were so unbalanced I don't think inclusions will make them any worse :P

[AaronKirk]

Gold Coast have an average losing margin of 87 over their last 5, you can get the Swans -85.5 @ $10. Someone tell me why this is a bad idea! Also, the closest they've been in that time is 74 points. Swans -73.5 is @ $5.40

They could be getting 7 players back this week. Hall and GAJ have had a warm up match after their week off and are hopefully ready to go as well :) Would take the Suns on that line

sometimes a huge number of ins like that upsets the team balance also

Agreed, but the Gold Coast were so unbalanced I don't think inclusions will make them any worse :P

They are predicting 20 to 40 ml of rain here on the Gold Coast on Friday and Saturday. I don't think it is a good bet.

[LaHug]

Gold Coast have an average losing margin of 87 over their last 5, you can get the Swans -85.5 @ $10. Someone tell me why this is a bad idea! Also, the closest they've been in that time is 74 points. Swans -73.5 is @ $5.40

They could be getting 7 players back this week. Hall and GAJ have had a warm up match after their week off and are hopefully ready to go as well :) Would take the Suns on that line

sometimes a huge number of ins like that upsets the team balance also

Agreed, but the Gold Coast were so unbalanced I don't think inclusions will make them any worse :P

They are predicting 20 to 40 ml of rain here on the Gold Coast on Friday and Saturday. I don't think it is a good bet.

Rain is a good reason. I guess I won't do it then. What's really troubling though is that Swans 40+ is less than $2. So no cash to be made unless you expect the Suns to bounce back and keep it close.

[elephants]

Gold Coast have an average losing margin of 87 over their last 5, you can get the Swans -85.5 @ $10. Someone tell me why this is a bad idea! Also, the closest they've been in that time is 74 points. Swans -73.5 is @ $5.40

They could be getting 7 players back this week. Hall and GAJ have had a warm up match after their week off and are hopefully ready to go as well :) Would take the Suns on that line

sometimes a huge number of ins like that upsets the team balance also

Agreed, but the Gold Coast were so unbalanced I don't think inclusions will make them any worse :P

They are predicting 20 to 40 ml of rain here on the Gold Coast on Friday and Saturday. I don't think it is a good bet.

In that case, I reckon GC with a close to 90 point start is good value.

[Rusty00]

Gold Coast have an average losing margin of 87 over their last 5, you can get the Swans -85.5 @ $10. Someone tell me why this is a bad idea! Also, the closest they've been in that time is 74 points. Swans -73.5 is @ $5.40

They could be getting 7 players back this week. Hall and GAJ have had a warm up match after their week off and are hopefully ready to go as well :) Would take the Suns on that line

sometimes a huge number of ins like that upsets the team balance also

Agreed, but the Gold Coast were so unbalanced I don't think inclusions will make them any worse :P

They are predicting 20 to 40 ml of rain here on the Gold Coast on Friday and Saturday. I don't think it is a good bet.

In that case, I reckon GC with a close to 90 point start is good value.

GC +74.5 is $1.10 so not the best value. (that was the first thing I checked after I saw these posts ;))

[LaHug]

Yeah, I don't remember ever saying that was the line or close to it. If one team's at $10, the other will be very tight odds at the same margin.

[elephants]

Ah, I misread. Carry on.

[jvalles69]

Brownlow leader board after round 10; Parker and Jelwood look very good value at $8 and $12 respectively.  Also Jelwood to win it is still paying $15 and I have him currently out in front.

[Rusty00]

Was amazed the line was only 54.5 for tonight's game. Money for jam :)