Bets

[jeesh]

Collingwood +27.5
Gold Coast +29.5
GWS +68.5
Port +30.5
Geelong -1.5
Bombers +27.5
Hawks -27.5
Saints +29.5
Dogs +43.5

Carlton +30.5
Hawthorn +1.5
GWS +31.5
Adelaide +31.5
Freo -23.5
Sydney +1.5
Brisbane +42.5
West Coast -22.5
Dogs +41.5

Rounds 1 & 2 I've got 7 from 9 in my multi's. Both times Collingwood have put me out so I'm not gonna touch that game this week so gonna go with a 8 leg multi. I need you blokes to give me a hand to bring in a winner!

How does this look?

Freo +11.5 I'm a Hawthorn supporter, no Hodge, no Mitchell, I'm gonna assume Crowley go's to our game winner Cyril. Think Freo win.
Richmond straight win Tiges beat the dogs by 60 points both times last year figured they should win this one.
Brisbane +26.5 Brissy have had a tough draw with Hawks then Cats. They get Rocky back this week I'm imagining a good contest.
Melbourne +39.5 Saints beat Melbourne by 17, Saints beat GWS by 7, I figure this should be a decent contest.
Port +16.5 Port have been running all over the top of sides in the last qtr. If Port trail by 3 goals at 3qtr time I'd be pretty confident in +16.5 holding up.
Essendon +5.5 Bombers have started the season with a bang as per norm. Think they should do Carlton.
Sydney +13.5 A top 4 side last year, they surely can't end up 0 and 3?
Saints +81.5 West Coast just smashed Melbourne by 93 points! Saints are a better side than Melbourne and I don't think West Coast can keep winning like that every week.

[Noz]

I think Hawthorn will win this match people are too quick to write of the Hawks, The loss of Mitchell hurts but regardless he wouldn't of done anything in that game anyways as Crowley would have limited his impact.

Who does Crowley go too now? Birchall? Burgoyne? Smith?

Hodge may actually pull up for the game and when you look at Freo's outs its a lot more bad. Fyfe and Dawson both will miss due to suspension, People still underestimate the role Dawson plays for the side and he will be hugely missed, Both players are really important to Freo's structure

I think the odds should be even or around the $1.80/$1.85 mark for both teams the fact that Hawthorn are at $2 and $2.5 to win between 1-39 points is very juicy

Early markets i will be going
Hawthorn 1-39
GWS 1-39
Port Adelaide 1-39
Eagles/Saints over 185.5 points

Thats at $25.33 which i think is very good odds.

Add Adelaide/Sydney under 178.5 points multi comes out to $47.62

[Noz]

Good points there mate didn't actually know Ibbo and Sylvia were back to full fitness. Really have to re analyse this game now because those are some pretty good ins.

[kilbluff1985]

i hate GWS not willing to back them even vs Melbourne they beat Sydney and lose to the Saints where is the logic

[strikes91]

Hawthorn @ $2.00 is awesome

I also like Brisbane and Collingwood both @ $2.25

[kilbluff1985]

the odds for Sydney look good @1.64 no more promo with sportsbet though :( unless they have a new one

[jeesh]

I think Hawthorn will win this match

If I went out first leg it would probably serve me right for betting against my own club. Taking nothing away from the bombers they are a decent side but the way they pushed us to the edge I feel like freo will win

[jeesh]

Freo +11.5 I'm a Hawthorn supporter, no Hodge, no Mitchell, I'm gonna assume Crowley go's to our game winner Cyril. Think Freo win.
Richmond straight win Tiges beat the dogs by 60 points both times last year figured they should win this one.
Brisbane +26.5 Brissy have had a tough draw with Hawks then Cats. They get Rocky back this week I'm imagining a good contest.
Melbourne +39.5 Saints beat Melbourne by 17, Saints beat GWS by 7, I figure this should be a decent contest.
Port +16.5 Port have been running all over the top of sides in the last qtr. If Port trail by 3 goals at 3qtr time I'd be pretty confident in +16.5 holding up.
Essendon +5.5 Bombers have started the season with a bang as per norm. Think they should do Carlton.
Sydney +13.5 A top 4 side last year, they surely can't end up 0 and 3?
Saints +81.5 West Coast just smashed Melbourne by 93 points! Saints are a better side than Melbourne and I don't think West Coast can keep winning like that every week.

So basically I am going for odds between 1.3 and 1.4, below are the alternatives.

Hawks +21.5
Dogs +38.5
GC +9.5
GWS -2.5
North +22.5
Carlton +32.5
Adelaide +24.5
West Coast -51.5

Any of the alternatives look a lot safer?

[DazBurg]

jeez 1.92 for the line on saints with at 67.5
not too shabby

[Noz]

With the news that Barlow is now out the punters have heavily backed the Hawks and they have now moved to clear favourites, I have been monitoring the price changes throughout the day.

In the morning Freo were still confirmed favourites and dropped to as low as $1.65 whilst Hawks still hovered around that $2 - $2.10 mark

After Lunch with the rumours that Barlow was to miss the prices went dead even at $1.92 for both sides

Now that the rumour has been confirmed Hawthorn now are favourites at $1.75 whilst Freo have moved out to $2.10

Can Freo still win with no Barlow, Fyfe or Dawson.

[kilbluff1985]

for this game i like the wire to wire market - any other result @2.00 instead of betting on a team

[Noz]

It would be very interesting to see who Crowley goes to.

[My Chumps]

Sure thing multi I've gone with this weekend:

Richmond
Hawthorn
Sydney
Freo
Geelong

Still paying $4.69. Chucked 15 on it.

Even though Sydney farked me over last week I'm sticking with them for this weeks multi. The rest I'm relatively confident about.

Hawthorn
Richmond
Sydney
Geelong
West Coast (pretty useless, but with sportsbet it gives you a bonus the more games you have in your multi, i.e. 12.5% for 4 and 15% for 5)

Just put $10 on it, paying $6.18

Covered my ass with a $5 bet on Adelaide at $2.30 just incase Sydney go down.

[Rusty00]

It would be very interesting to see who Crowley goes to.

My guess is Smith or Burgoyne. Or he could go to Lewis as a ploy to niggle him into giving away stupid free kicks........which he would ::)

[jeesh]

If we look back to the grand final which Hawks won by 15 (I felt like we walked it in but I was pretty blind) the teams were

HAWTHORN GRAND FINAL SIDE

B Ben Stratton, Brian Lake, Grant Birchall
HB Shaun Burgoyne, Josh Gibson, Bradley Hill
C Isaac Smith, Sam Mitchell, Jordan Lewis
HF Luke Breust, Lance Franklin, Cyril Rioli
F Paul Puopolo, Jarryd Roughead, Jack Gunston
FOL Max Bailey, Brad Sewell, Luke Hodge
I/C Brent Guerra, David Hale, Liam Shiels
SUB Jonathan Simpkin

HAWTHORN ROUND 3 SIDE

B Taylor Duryea, Josh Gibson, Matthew Suckling
HB Sam Mitchell, Kyle Cheney, Grant Birchall
C Liam Shiels, Shaun Burgoyne, Bradley Hill
HF Luke Breust, Jarryd Roughead, Isaac Smith
F Jack Gunston, David Hale, Paul Puopolo
FOL Ben McEvoy, Jordan Lewis, Cyril Rioli
I/C Will Langford, Matt Spangher, Angus Litherland, Jonathan Simpkin

FREMANTLE GRAND FINAL SIDE

B Michael Johnson, Zac Dawson, Paul Duffield
HB Lee Spurr, Luke McPharlin, Danyle Pearce
C David Mundy, Ryan Crowley, Tendai Mzungu
HF Cameron Sutcliffe, Chris Mayne, Nathan Fyfe
F Hayden Ballantyne, Matthew Pavlich, Michael Walters
FOL Aaron Sandilands, Matt de Boer, Stephen Hill
I/C Nick Suban, Michael Barlow, Zac Clarke
SUB Lachie Neale

FREMANTLE ROUND 3 SIDE

B Alex Silvagni, Luke McPharlin, Lee Spurr
HB Danyle Pearce, Michael Johnson, Paul Duffield
C Cameron Sutcliffe, Ryan Crowley, David Mundy
HF Hayden Ballantyne, Chris Mayne, Nick Suban
F Jack Hannath, Matthew Pavlich, Michael Walters
FOL Aaron Sandilands, Tendai Mzungu, Stephen Hill
I/C Lachie Neale, Garrick Ibbotson, Matt de Boer, Tommy Sheridan

So Fremantle have lost Fyfe, Barlow, Dawson and Clarke from there grand final team while the Hawks have lost Stratton, Lake, Hodge, Guerra, Sewell, Bailey and Franklin. I think the changes to the Hawks side are far more dramatic.