Bets

[henry]

I really like the WCE line of +30, I reckon Hawks will win but it will be much closer than that.

Put a multi on...
WCE +32.5
GWS+51.5
Sydney - 15.5
Brisbane +26.5

@$6.15

All the other legs got up,  :'( ::)

[Spite]

Barlow is $1.80 to score over 108.5 in DT this week. Crows are his 3rd favorite team at an average of 111.4 in his career.

#geton

Haha, few nervous moments late there but he got it with 110.

Man I was panicking late haha
All good in the end thankfully :)

[elephants]

C'mon lads, World Cup betting. Let's get on it!

[R.Griffen]

got Brazil and Argentina to win all 3 group stage games

[elephants]

Looking at Brazil, Spain and Argentina to all win their groups. Paying 2.40 it seems pretty easy money.

[Noz]

I had 2 easy bets one paying at $5 the other at $13 they were pretty easy money but I forgot the bets. :P
When I get home ill share my wisdom.

[upthemaidens]

  Just having a look at world cup odds/bets, came across this one.
    -Total goals scored in the highest scoring match-   7+ @ $1.90
  Surely 7 goals isn't that many considering games like 'Brazil v Cameroon' 'Argentina v Iran' etc.

  ..What are peoples thoughts?

[upthemaidens]

  Also  'Big 2 vs the field' @ 2.20    (Brazil/Arg to win)

[strikes91]

Have a $20 free bet for the world cup. What do you guys think is a good value bet.

[elephants]

  Just having a look at world cup odds/bets, came across this one.
    -Total goals scored in the highest scoring match-   7+ @ $1.90
  Surely 7 goals isn't that many considering games like 'Brazil v Cameroon' 'Argentina v Iran' etc.

  ..What are peoples thoughts?

Done some number crunching...

At the 2010 World Cup there were 64 matches in total (48 group stage, 16 knockout). I have had a look at the total goals in each game.

Group Stage

0 goals: 5       (10%)
1 goals: 14     (29%)
2 goals: 12     (25%)
3 goals: 9       (18.75%)
4 goals: 5       (10%)
5 goals: 2       (4%)
6 goals: 0       (0%)
7 goals+: 1 (Portugal 7-0 North Korea)     (2%)

Knockout Stage

0 goals: 1      (6.25%)
1 goals: 4      (25%)
2 goals: 1      (6.25%)
3 goals: 5      (31.25%)
4 goals: 2      (12.5%)
5 goals: 3      (18.75%)
6 goals: 0      (0%)
7 goals+: 0    (0%)

I have added the % of games where this number occurs which should hopefully give us some idea about this upcoming world cup. Apparently in the knockout stages, the need for goals and wins outweighs the tactic of playing safe and avoiding defeat. If you're expecting games of 3+ or more you'd be looking at early in the knockout stages I reckon.

So maidens, there's only a 2% chance based on last World Cup that such a goal-fest could ensue!

Food for thought anyway ;)

[upthemaidens]

  Just having a look at world cup odds/bets, came across this one.
    -Total goals scored in the highest scoring match-   7+ @ $1.90
  Surely 7 goals isn't that many considering games like 'Brazil v Cameroon' 'Argentina v Iran' etc.

  ..What are peoples thoughts?

Done some number crunching...

At the 2010 World Cup there were 64 matches in total (48 group stage, 16 knockout). I have had a look at the total goals in each game.

Group Stage

0 goals: 5       (10%)
1 goals: 14     (29%)
2 goals: 12     (25%)
3 goals: 9       (18.75%)
4 goals: 5       (10%)
5 goals: 2       (4%)
6 goals: 0       (0%)
7 goals+: 1 (Portugal 7-0 North Korea)     (2%)

Knockout Stage

0 goals: 1      (6.25%)
1 goals: 4      (25%)
2 goals: 1      (6.25%)
3 goals: 5      (31.25%)
4 goals: 2      (12.5%)
5 goals: 3      (18.75%)
6 goals: 0      (0%)
7 goals+: 0    (0%)

I have added the % of games where this number occurs which should hopefully give us some idea about this upcoming world cup. Apparently in the knockout stages, the need for goals and wins outweighs the tactic of playing safe and avoiding defeat. If you're expecting games of 3+ or more you'd be looking at early in the knockout stages I reckon.

So maidens, there's only a 2% chance based on last World Cup that such a goal-fest could ensue!

Food for thought anyway ;)

Cheers Ele

   Your example of 2% based on 2010,  Would be a 2% chance  per Game   Not per World Cup.

  I also checked 2010 after posting, also 2006 and 2002.  Did not happen in '06, (6 goals twice).  In '02  7+ happened twice.
     So over the last three WCs its happened three times (small sample size, but still)

[Noz]

Wanna make some easy money simply follow these bets.

Spain won't drop points and Australia won't get any points so its out of Netherlands and Chile for that last spot to qualify then hedge your bet.

Taking a group exacta for Spain/Netherlands ($2.75) and then another bet with Spain/Chile ($3.75) is just easy money.

Same with Group A take Brazil/Croatia ($2.65) then Brazil/Mexio ($2.65)

Group F Argentia/Bosnia ($2.15) Argentia/Nigera ($2.80)

Costa Rica and England to have a nil all draw at $201 provides some decent value

England/Italy
Switzerland/Ecuador
Iran/Nigeria
Ghana/USA

all under 2.5 goals for $5

[elephants]

Taking a group exacta for Spain/Netherlands ($2.75) and then another bet with Spain/Chile ($3.75) is just easy money.

Same with Group A take Brazil/Croatia ($2.65) then Brazil/Mexio ($2.65)

Group F Argentia/Bosnia ($2.15) Argentia/Nigera ($2.80)

Costa Rica and England to have a nil all draw at $201 provides some decent value

Genius.

Might chuck a dollar on the England/Costa nil-all draw too.

[elephants]

  Just having a look at world cup odds/bets, came across this one.
    -Total goals scored in the highest scoring match-   7+ @ $1.90
  Surely 7 goals isn't that many considering games like 'Brazil v Cameroon' 'Argentina v Iran' etc.

  ..What are peoples thoughts?

Done some number crunching...

At the 2010 World Cup there were 64 matches in total (48 group stage, 16 knockout). I have had a look at the total goals in each game.

Group Stage

0 goals: 5       (10%)
1 goals: 14     (29%)
2 goals: 12     (25%)
3 goals: 9       (18.75%)
4 goals: 5       (10%)
5 goals: 2       (4%)
6 goals: 0       (0%)
7 goals+: 1 (Portugal 7-0 North Korea)     (2%)

Knockout Stage

0 goals: 1      (6.25%)
1 goals: 4      (25%)
2 goals: 1      (6.25%)
3 goals: 5      (31.25%)
4 goals: 2      (12.5%)
5 goals: 3      (18.75%)
6 goals: 0      (0%)
7 goals+: 0    (0%)

I have added the % of games where this number occurs which should hopefully give us some idea about this upcoming world cup. Apparently in the knockout stages, the need for goals and wins outweighs the tactic of playing safe and avoiding defeat. If you're expecting games of 3+ or more you'd be looking at early in the knockout stages I reckon.

So maidens, there's only a 2% chance based on last World Cup that such a goal-fest could ensue!

Food for thought anyway ;)

Cheers Ele

   Your example of 2% based on 2010,  Would be a 2% chance  per Game   Not per World Cup.

  I also checked 2010 after posting, also 2006 and 2002.  Did not happen in '06, (6 goals twice).  In '02  7+ happened twice.
     So over the last three WCs its happened three times (small sample size, but still)

Yep, right you are mate. I knew that but my fingers typed something else haha

[upthemaidens]

  Yeah all good Ele  :)     
         So if there was 64 matches last WC (gather its the same this time)  ,if lets say its a 1% chance per game =64% chance of it happening during the whole comp.   Bookies offering $1.90 seems to be a +EV bet.

     Also the balls they will be using needs to be taken into account, are they scoring friendly balls? curve in the air excessively etc.  They are always different from Cup to Cup.