No Ablett to start with....

Started by pie time, March 10, 2013, 05:47:46 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

Grazz

I think if you intend to get Gaj in during the season it is simpler and easier to start with him otherwise you need to wait till rnd 7-10 to be able to do it with minimal trades using a midpricer who has gained value and a rookie who has gained value, trying to do it earlier will cost 4 trades approx. It's not easy trying to find 700k thats for sure so i always start with him while the money is easy to find. Ive still managed to be ranked #1 in SC after rnd 4and rnd 5  2010 so ive always begun with him as i dont see it a real handicap.

PizzleDizzle

So you're confident Ablett will still score 140 average in supercoach even in a side where they have a few less injuries than last year, and have got a couple of new seasoned recruits dropping his workload a little bit where it isn't all on his shoulders to carry the team in all sectors of the ground?? If you're 100% confident he will do this....I'll put him in my side now!! .....so are you?

Vicious Sandwhich Attack

Quote from: Grazz on March 10, 2013, 06:54:02 PM
Quote from: PizzleDizzle on March 10, 2013, 06:49:41 PM
You could say the same about captaincy with Pendlebury or swan

True but Ablett is the dominant SC scorer and the topic of the thread.


Quote from: Vicious Sandwhich Attack on March 10, 2013, 06:51:27 PM
Quote from: Grazz on March 10, 2013, 06:39:50 PM
Quote from: Vincent on March 10, 2013, 06:21:38 PM
Quote from: Grazz on March 10, 2013, 06:17:06 PM
Quote from: Vincent on March 10, 2013, 06:12:09 PM
No. Prices are worked out on average multiplies by 5350 but as rookies rise in price, the 5350 comes down. The total amount of money in the game doesn't change. When rookies rise in price that money has to come from somewhere. All players are overpriced at the start of the season and those who don't improve their average will lose money.

Im just telling you what assistant coach has his breakeven listed at and that is 138.4, im confident that this is what it will be rnd 1.

They have every rookie projected to score 0. Ablett's BE is assuming that there is no 'new money' from new players, just fluctuations between those already in the game with 2012 averages.

There wont be any new money untill round 3. Tbh i dont really understand your post mate and im not right up with the calculations used to determine ones breakeven. All i can go on is last year and assistant coaches breakevens were correct for rnd 1 onwards.

Using your figures Whitfield at $199.500 would have a BE of 39.9 yet assistant coach has him listed at a BE of 37.

My undertsnding of breakevens is this.....

Players starting prices are based on the magic number $5,350 per point, excluding discounts given to players like Lecras etc..... As soon as the season starts this magic number drops to $5,000,  which lifts the BE for every player.... That said 148 for Ablett is not implausible, and even if he hits 140 (Highly likely) his price won't decrease enough to be a viable upgrade option.

The drop begins from rnd 1 does it, im only asking as im not up to speed with it.
I am fairly certain it starts at the first price change Grazz... but please, don't quote me on that :)

Vicious Sandwhich Attack

Quote from: PizzleDizzle on March 10, 2013, 07:10:42 PM
So you're confident Ablett will still score 140 average in supercoach even in a side where they have a few less injuries than last year, and have got a couple of new seasoned recruits dropping his workload a little bit where it isn't all on his shoulders to carry the team in all sectors of the ground?? If you're 100% confident he will do this....I'll put him in my side now!! .....so are you?
Pizzle,

If in fact that is your real name... ;)

If there is anyone that can, Ablett can.... to give an example without even thinking 140 average = 420 points over 3 weeks..

Week 1: 160
Week 2: 120
Week 3: 140

Tell me Gaz can't do that easily!

Vincent

Quote from: Grazz on March 10, 2013, 06:39:50 PM
Quote from: Vincent on March 10, 2013, 06:21:38 PM
Quote from: Grazz on March 10, 2013, 06:17:06 PM
Quote from: Vincent on March 10, 2013, 06:12:09 PM
No. Prices are worked out on average multiplies by 5350 but as rookies rise in price, the 5350 comes down. The total amount of money in the game doesn't change. When rookies rise in price that money has to come from somewhere. All players are overpriced at the start of the season and those who don't improve their average will lose money.

Im just telling you what assistant coach has his breakeven listed at and that is 138.4, im confident that this is what it will be rnd 1.

They have every rookie projected to score 0. Ablett's BE is assuming that there is no 'new money' from new players, just fluctuations between those already in the game with 2012 averages.

There wont be any new money untill round 3. Tbh i dont really understand your post mate and im not right up with the calculations used to determine ones breakeven. All i can go on is last year and assistant coaches breakevens were correct for rnd 1 onwards.

Using your figures Whitfield at $199.500 would have a BE of 39.9 yet assistant coach has him listed at a BE of 37.

They don't explain things properly on the site. They don't explain the scoring system in detail, and they don't explain the pricing system in detail either. Trust me, if Ablett scores 138, 138 and 138 in rounds 1, 2 and 3 he will come down in price.

I'll explain it in really simple terms. Imagine there is only 10 players in the entire game and only one of them played last year.

There is only $1,625,000 dollars available and it never changes. The magic number is 5000. That means each point is worth $5000.

Last year Ablett averaged 100 and is priced at $500,000
Rookie 1 is priced at $125,000 (25 average). The 8 other rookies are the same, taking it to 10 players.
The total amount of points would be 325.

After 10 weeks Ablett averages 100 still and the 9 rookies each average 50.
The total amount of points averaged would be 550.

Now we still have $1,625,000 available but now there is 550 points. Each point is now worth 2954.54
Ablett is still averaging 100 but his price would be $295,454
The other players would be priced at $147,727

PizzleDizzle

Didn't see your post Grazz....I see your point!  My point is if I have Ablett I will have to have another mid pricer in my side that could get 120  one week and 50 the next averaging 85....or, use that extra money saved off GAJ originally get another premium who will be averaging 110....I might lose 24 points not having GAJ as captain until I put the captaincy back on Pendlebury and it is back to 15 max loss and could consistently get an average of 25 more with another premo? Make sense my train of thought? Or still idiocy??

Vincent

Quote from: Vicious Sandwhich Attack on March 10, 2013, 06:51:27 PM
Quote from: Grazz on March 10, 2013, 06:39:50 PM
Quote from: Vincent on March 10, 2013, 06:21:38 PM
Quote from: Grazz on March 10, 2013, 06:17:06 PM
Quote from: Vincent on March 10, 2013, 06:12:09 PM
No. Prices are worked out on average multiplies by 5350 but as rookies rise in price, the 5350 comes down. The total amount of money in the game doesn't change. When rookies rise in price that money has to come from somewhere. All players are overpriced at the start of the season and those who don't improve their average will lose money.

Im just telling you what assistant coach has his breakeven listed at and that is 138.4, im confident that this is what it will be rnd 1.

They have every rookie projected to score 0. Ablett's BE is assuming that there is no 'new money' from new players, just fluctuations between those already in the game with 2012 averages.

There wont be any new money untill round 3. Tbh i dont really understand your post mate and im not right up with the calculations used to determine ones breakeven. All i can go on is last year and assistant coaches breakevens were correct for rnd 1 onwards.

Using your figures Whitfield at $199.500 would have a BE of 39.9 yet assistant coach has him listed at a BE of 37.

My undertsnding of breakevens is this.....

Players starting prices are based on the magic number $5,350 per point, excluding discounts given to players like Lecras etc..... As soon as the season starts this magic number drops to $5,000,  which lifts the BE for every player.... That said 148 for Ablett is not implausible, and even if he hits 140 (Highly likely) his price won't decrease enough to be a viable upgrade option.

Lol. Way off. It all depends on how many new rookies and 'new money' there is in the game. The magic number moves accordingly.

Grazz

Thanks VSA.

Quote from: PizzleDizzle on March 10, 2013, 07:19:27 PM
Didn't see your post Grazz....I see your point!  My point is if I have Ablett I will have to have another mid pricer in my side that could get 120  one week and 50 the next averaging 85....or, use that extra money saved off GAJ originally get another premium who will be averaging 110....I might lose 24 points not having GAJ as captain until I put the captaincy back on Pendlebury and it is back to 15 max loss and could consistently get an average of 25 more with another premo? Make sense my train of thought? Or still idiocy??

I would never call it idiocy mate as there are so many ways to skin to a cat and that would be very arrogant of me to do so. i know it's been won before without ever having Ablett at all going back some years so it is entirely possible to do well without him. I just think it's easier done with him.
Your point about the midpricer and score fluctuations you may get are very real if you dont quite get it right so by having another prem you stand a reasonable chance for more consistency, but i'll be upgrading to another prem easier and quicker using a midpricer thus we will be back to an even number of prems and i still have Ablett. Hope that makes sense mate. As i said alot of ways to skin a cat, back yourself and your plan like we all do and all the best to you.

Grazz

Quote from: Vincent on March 10, 2013, 07:25:09 PM
Quote from: Vicious Sandwhich Attack on March 10, 2013, 06:51:27 PM
Quote from: Grazz on March 10, 2013, 06:39:50 PM
Quote from: Vincent on March 10, 2013, 06:21:38 PM
Quote from: Grazz on March 10, 2013, 06:17:06 PM
Quote from: Vincent on March 10, 2013, 06:12:09 PM
No. Prices are worked out on average multiplies by 5350 but as rookies rise in price, the 5350 comes down. The total amount of money in the game doesn't change. When rookies rise in price that money has to come from somewhere. All players are overpriced at the start of the season and those who don't improve their average will lose money.

Im just telling you what assistant coach has his breakeven listed at and that is 138.4, im confident that this is what it will be rnd 1.

They have every rookie projected to score 0. Ablett's BE is assuming that there is no 'new money' from new players, just fluctuations between those already in the game with 2012 averages.

There wont be any new money untill round 3. Tbh i dont really understand your post mate and im not right up with the calculations used to determine ones breakeven. All i can go on is last year and assistant coaches breakevens were correct for rnd 1 onwards.

Using your figures Whitfield at $199.500 would have a BE of 39.9 yet assistant coach has him listed at a BE of 37.

My undertsnding of breakevens is this.....

Players starting prices are based on the magic number $5,350 per point, excluding discounts given to players like Lecras etc..... As soon as the season starts this magic number drops to $5,000,  which lifts the BE for every player.... That said 148 for Ablett is not implausible, and even if he hits 140 (Highly likely) his price won't decrease enough to be a viable upgrade option.

Lol. Way off. It all depends on how many new rookies and 'new money' there is in the game. The magic number moves accordingly.

Wouldn't this be after round 3 was played as no new money has been brought into the game prior to that so everything would remain staus quo untill then or am i missing something still. :-\

pie time

Wow , what a great debate..My theory is with no Ablett, is i may lose say 20 points from having Pendles Capt instead but i will make most of that up by having a different prem instead of a medium prem/or rookie in the side,, well that is my theory. It is a big gamble. If GC happen to improve you will find Ablett will be tagged more than last 2 years. Hopefully this risk pays off. I have never done this type of risk before.

If Ablett gets off to a flyer so be it. That's why this game is great..

Vincent

Quote from: Grazz on March 10, 2013, 07:39:55 PM
Quote from: Vincent on March 10, 2013, 07:25:09 PM
Quote from: Vicious Sandwhich Attack on March 10, 2013, 06:51:27 PM
Quote from: Grazz on March 10, 2013, 06:39:50 PM
Quote from: Vincent on March 10, 2013, 06:21:38 PM
Quote from: Grazz on March 10, 2013, 06:17:06 PM
Quote from: Vincent on March 10, 2013, 06:12:09 PM
No. Prices are worked out on average multiplies by 5350 but as rookies rise in price, the 5350 comes down. The total amount of money in the game doesn't change. When rookies rise in price that money has to come from somewhere. All players are overpriced at the start of the season and those who don't improve their average will lose money.

Im just telling you what assistant coach has his breakeven listed at and that is 138.4, im confident that this is what it will be rnd 1.

They have every rookie projected to score 0. Ablett's BE is assuming that there is no 'new money' from new players, just fluctuations between those already in the game with 2012 averages.

There wont be any new money untill round 3. Tbh i dont really understand your post mate and im not right up with the calculations used to determine ones breakeven. All i can go on is last year and assistant coaches breakevens were correct for rnd 1 onwards.

Using your figures Whitfield at $199.500 would have a BE of 39.9 yet assistant coach has him listed at a BE of 37.

My undertsnding of breakevens is this.....

Players starting prices are based on the magic number $5,350 per point, excluding discounts given to players like Lecras etc..... As soon as the season starts this magic number drops to $5,000,  which lifts the BE for every player.... That said 148 for Ablett is not implausible, and even if he hits 140 (Highly likely) his price won't decrease enough to be a viable upgrade option.

Lol. Way off. It all depends on how many new rookies and 'new money' there is in the game. The magic number moves accordingly.

Wouldn't this be after round 3 was played as no new money has been brought into the game prior to that so everything would remain staus quo untill then or am i missing something still. :-\

Yes it is after round 3 when the magic number and prices change. It changes every round from round 3 onwards. The 5000 number is just plucked from mid air and is not accurate.

PizzleDizzle

Quote from: pie time on March 10, 2013, 07:44:07 PM
Wow , what a great debate..My theory is with no Ablett, is i may lose say 20 points from having Pendles Capt instead but i will make most of that up by having a different prem instead of a medium prem/or rookie in the side,, well that is my theory. It is a big gamble. If GC happen to improve you will find Ablett will be tagged more than last 2 years. Hopefully this risk pays off. I have never done this type of risk before.

If Ablett gets off to a flyer so be it. That's why this game is great..
These were my thoughts also pie time

Grazz

Quote from: pie time on March 10, 2013, 07:44:07 PM
Wow , what a great debate..My theory is with no Ablett, is i may lose say 20 points from having Pendles Capt instead but i will make most of that up by having a different prem instead of a medium prem/or rookie in the side,, well that is my theory. It is a big gamble. If GC happen to improve you will find Ablett will be tagged more than last 2 years. Hopefully this risk pays off. I have never done this type of risk before.

If Ablett gets off to a flyer so be it. That's why this game is great..

There's always a debate rgarding Gaj each preseason mate, do i or dont i. As i said you have to back your plan in and learn from there one way or the other and continually modify it. The extra trades may se some say bugger it i'll burn the extra trades to get Gaj later on which s fair enough but those that start with him will have those extra trades so theres always a damned if i do damned if i dont kind of thing going on. Your theory on him being tagged is risky as by enlarge he is untaggable and rarely comes off. This i why people pay the premium price for him knowing this.

Mykonos FC

Okay, so 40% of all teams have Ablett... I reckon 85% of the top 10,000 teams from last year would have Ablett (looking at RMSC, this is a fair estimate) - so from a league perspective, having Ablett is a must purely because of he is the highest scoring player by 12 points (from his nearest competitor) and that is an extra 24 points per week as captain. And that also flows down to obvious positive effects for your overall rank.

Safety in numbers. If you don't pick Ablett and he averages 130 over the first 6 weeks you really haven't gained THAT much, he'll still be 685-710k and as previously mentioned getting him into your team is simply easier when you have 10,000,000 at your disposal! lol |

+ look at his history against his opposition he comes up against early, you'll see it is well over 135.

+ look at Ablett's first 5 rounds from his last 5 years - you'll see some whopping averages.


Grazz

Quote from: Mykonos FC on March 10, 2013, 08:06:24 PM
Okay, so 40% of all teams have Ablett... I reckon 85% of the top 10,000 teams from last year would have Ablett (looking at RMSC, this is a fair estimate) - so from a league perspective, having Ablett is a must purely because of he is the highest scoring player by 12 points (from his nearest competitor) and that is an extra 24 points per week as captain. And that also flows down to obvious positive effects for your overall rank.

Safety in numbers. If you don't pick Ablett and he averages 130 over the first 6 weeks you really haven't gained THAT much, he'll still be 685-710k and as previously mentioned getting him into your team is simply easier when you have 10,000,000 at your disposal! lol |

+ look at his history against his opposition he comes up against early, you'll see it is well over 135.

+ look at Ablett's first 5 rounds from his last 5 years - you'll see some whopping averages.

All the reasons why people are all to willing to pay the premium price. :)
I personally dont see the money saved being able to damage me to a
point where i would consider not starting him, its generally someones
whole side where thay have outdone me/you that the damage comes from
not a single player with the money saved.