No Ablett to start with....

Started by pie time, March 10, 2013, 05:47:46 PM

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pie time

TEAM NAME: The kid can play
DEF: B. Goddard, B. Gibbs, P. Duffield, D. Heppell, B. Goodes, L. Stevenson (S. Docherty, D. Terlich)
MID: S. Pendlebury, J. Kennedy, B. Deledio, S. Thompson, B. Moloney, O. Wines, B. Crouch, S. Colquhoun (J. Viney, M. Jones)
RUC: T. Goldstein, M. Leuenberger (S. Rowe, D. Currie)
FWD: L. Franklin, T. Walker, C. Rioli, T. Rockliff, G. Broughton, T. Lee (J. Neade, B. Kennedy)
CASH LEFT: $21,400

Is the risk too high without Ablett. I'm thinking around 150 will be required to stay at current price. Hopefully after 4-5 rounds he drops close to 100k. Then i will upgrade.. Am i crazy...

Mykonos FC

Quote from: pie time on March 10, 2013, 05:47:46 PM
TEAM NAME: The kid can play
DEF: B. Goddard, B. Gibbs, P. Duffield, D. Heppell, B. Goodes, L. Stevenson (S. Docherty, D. Terlich)
MID: S. Pendlebury, J. Kennedy, B. Deledio, S. Thompson, B. Moloney, O. Wines, B. Crouch, S. Colquhoun (J. Viney, M. Jones)
RUC: T. Goldstein, M. Leuenberger (S. Rowe, D. Currie)
FWD: L. Franklin, T. Walker, C. Rioli, T. Rockliff, G. Broughton, T. Lee (J. Neade, B. Kennedy)
CASH LEFT: $21,400

Is the risk too high without Ablett. I'm thinking around 150 will be required to stay at current price. Hopefully after 4-5 rounds he drops close to 100k. Then i will upgrade.. Am i crazy...

No - Ablett would need to score his average to maintain his price which is more lower than 150 lol
Something like 136 or so.

There is no chance he will drop 100k in Rounds unless an injury occurs.

The rest of your team is nice though Rioli is still injured I think and do you think Broughton will kill it early or be a longterm gun because I can see him averaging 85 and being a useless pick (just my opinion).

However your defence is very very good

7/10

No Ablett and No Cox is crazy in my books!

Vincent

Divide a players price by 5 to find what they have to average to maintain their price

$740,500 /5 = 148.1 points

Mykonos FC

Then why would Ablett's BE be 138?
If he were to score 138 for each round 1, 2 and 3 - his price should stay the same shouldnt it?

Grazz

His BE is what Mykonos said 138.4

Vincent

No. Prices are worked out on average multiplies by 5350 but as rookies rise in price, the 5350 comes down. The total amount of money in the game doesn't change. When rookies rise in price that money has to come from somewhere. All players are overpriced at the start of the season and those who don't improve their average will lose money.

Grazz

Quote from: Vincent on March 10, 2013, 06:12:09 PM
No. Prices are worked out on average multiplies by 5350 but as rookies rise in price, the 5350 comes down. The total amount of money in the game doesn't change. When rookies rise in price that money has to come from somewhere. All players are overpriced at the start of the season and those who don't improve their average will lose money.

Im just telling you what assistant coach has his breakeven listed at and that is 138.4, im confident that this is what it will be rnd 1.

Vincent

Quote from: Grazz on March 10, 2013, 06:17:06 PM
Quote from: Vincent on March 10, 2013, 06:12:09 PM
No. Prices are worked out on average multiplies by 5350 but as rookies rise in price, the 5350 comes down. The total amount of money in the game doesn't change. When rookies rise in price that money has to come from somewhere. All players are overpriced at the start of the season and those who don't improve their average will lose money.

Im just telling you what assistant coach has his breakeven listed at and that is 138.4, im confident that this is what it will be rnd 1.

They have every rookie projected to score 0. Ablett's BE is assuming that there is no 'new money' from new players, just fluctuations between those already in the game with 2012 averages.

PizzleDizzle

Everybody telling me the same.....no Ablett = big risk! Not saying he won't be in my side eventually, just think I can make up the points with another premium than a mid pricer! If he maintains $740k I would be surprised with a few of their players I think will take a step up. I might be wrong, but only so many points given out for supercoach as we all know.
Broughton, O'maera, Bennell....swallow and Bock coming back, plus a few guys that have a couple of preseasons under their belt now....it won't all fall on his shoulders anymore.....with that and I still don't think they will win a lot of games, I'm kind of sceptical to start Ablett in the line up at this point.....might bite my words, but might be a chance to be that little bit different from everybody else.

Grazz

Quote from: Vincent on March 10, 2013, 06:21:38 PM
Quote from: Grazz on March 10, 2013, 06:17:06 PM
Quote from: Vincent on March 10, 2013, 06:12:09 PM
No. Prices are worked out on average multiplies by 5350 but as rookies rise in price, the 5350 comes down. The total amount of money in the game doesn't change. When rookies rise in price that money has to come from somewhere. All players are overpriced at the start of the season and those who don't improve their average will lose money.

Im just telling you what assistant coach has his breakeven listed at and that is 138.4, im confident that this is what it will be rnd 1.

They have every rookie projected to score 0. Ablett's BE is assuming that there is no 'new money' from new players, just fluctuations between those already in the game with 2012 averages.

There wont be any new money untill round 3. Tbh i dont really understand your post mate and im not right up with the calculations used to determine ones breakeven. All i can go on is last year and assistant coaches breakevens were correct for rnd 1 onwards.

Using your figures Whitfield at $199.500 would have a BE of 39.9 yet assistant coach has him listed at a BE of 37.

Mykonos FC

It isn't a risk to not have Ablett, just a disadvantage, it is easier to get him from the start, chuck the C on him and focus on other areas.


PizzleDizzle

You could say the same about captaincy with Pendlebury or swan

Vicious Sandwhich Attack

Quote from: Grazz on March 10, 2013, 06:39:50 PM
Quote from: Vincent on March 10, 2013, 06:21:38 PM
Quote from: Grazz on March 10, 2013, 06:17:06 PM
Quote from: Vincent on March 10, 2013, 06:12:09 PM
No. Prices are worked out on average multiplies by 5350 but as rookies rise in price, the 5350 comes down. The total amount of money in the game doesn't change. When rookies rise in price that money has to come from somewhere. All players are overpriced at the start of the season and those who don't improve their average will lose money.

Im just telling you what assistant coach has his breakeven listed at and that is 138.4, im confident that this is what it will be rnd 1.

They have every rookie projected to score 0. Ablett's BE is assuming that there is no 'new money' from new players, just fluctuations between those already in the game with 2012 averages.

There wont be any new money untill round 3. Tbh i dont really understand your post mate and im not right up with the calculations used to determine ones breakeven. All i can go on is last year and assistant coaches breakevens were correct for rnd 1 onwards.

Using your figures Whitfield at $199.500 would have a BE of 39.9 yet assistant coach has him listed at a BE of 37.

My undertsnding of breakevens is this.....

Players starting prices are based on the magic number $5,350 per point, excluding discounts given to players like Lecras etc..... As soon as the season starts this magic number drops to $5,000,  which lifts the BE for every player.... That said 148 for Ablett is not implausible, and even if he hits 140 (Highly likely) his price won't decrease enough to be a viable upgrade option.

Grazz

Quote from: PizzleDizzle on March 10, 2013, 06:49:41 PM
You could say the same about captaincy with Pendlebury or swan

True but Ablett is the dominant SC scorer and the topic of the thread.


Quote from: Vicious Sandwhich Attack on March 10, 2013, 06:51:27 PM
Quote from: Grazz on March 10, 2013, 06:39:50 PM
Quote from: Vincent on March 10, 2013, 06:21:38 PM
Quote from: Grazz on March 10, 2013, 06:17:06 PM
Quote from: Vincent on March 10, 2013, 06:12:09 PM
No. Prices are worked out on average multiplies by 5350 but as rookies rise in price, the 5350 comes down. The total amount of money in the game doesn't change. When rookies rise in price that money has to come from somewhere. All players are overpriced at the start of the season and those who don't improve their average will lose money.

Im just telling you what assistant coach has his breakeven listed at and that is 138.4, im confident that this is what it will be rnd 1.

They have every rookie projected to score 0. Ablett's BE is assuming that there is no 'new money' from new players, just fluctuations between those already in the game with 2012 averages.

There wont be any new money untill round 3. Tbh i dont really understand your post mate and im not right up with the calculations used to determine ones breakeven. All i can go on is last year and assistant coaches breakevens were correct for rnd 1 onwards.

Using your figures Whitfield at $199.500 would have a BE of 39.9 yet assistant coach has him listed at a BE of 37.

My undertsnding of breakevens is this.....

Players starting prices are based on the magic number $5,350 per point, excluding discounts given to players like Lecras etc..... As soon as the season starts this magic number drops to $5,000,  which lifts the BE for every player.... That said 148 for Ablett is not implausible, and even if he hits 140 (Highly likely) his price won't decrease enough to be a viable upgrade option.

The drop begins from rnd 1 does it, im only asking as im not up to speed with it.

Mykonos FC

Quote from: PizzleDizzle on March 10, 2013, 06:49:41 PM
You could say the same about captaincy with Pendlebury or swan

No you couldn't because Ablett averaged 12 more than those two last year, so you are losing 24 points right there on any given week when versing someone with Ablett as captain.
In a competitive (top 50 league), 24 points is a lot.