Forward prems giving me a headache

[quinny88]

Roughy? He is quite consistent.

yeah he has been the past 2 seasons but he has played most of his footy in the ruck the past 2 years. Now that Bailey is back I expect he will do most of the ruck work with Hale pinch hitting and Roughy will move back forward where he doesnt score that well

[tbagrocks]

Have a look at where JJ plays, I expect it to be full forward, even in the trial v Freo Tex played CHF, hard to double team a guy leading up the ground, and when he does drift inside 50, as he has done since he was a boy he will find ways to score goals, almost plays like a small forward at ground level

Key thing is he will be leading up field taking marks and using his elite leg

[quinny88]

Have a look at where JJ plays, I expect it to be full forward, even in the trial v Freo Tex played CHF, hard to double team a guy leading up the ground, and when he does drift inside 50, as he has done since he was a boy he will find ways to score goals, almost plays like a small forward at ground level

Key thing is he will be leading up field taking marks and using his elite leg

I know you are a big wrap for JJ, tbag but realistically he isnt Tippet and he doesnt demand the attention from defenders that Tippet did nor does he have the capability of kicking as many goals as Tippet did.. Atleast not at this stage. He's only played half a season of footy. Tex is going to have to kick bags of goals regularly for Adelaide to be a top 4 chance again so they are going to need him inside the 50 more often than not where he will be the main focal point from the defence. Walker also has a bad habbit of getting rubbed out.
He has played seasons of 14, 18, 13 and 16 games in his career and he was ordinary up until last year. Just dont have the confidence to start the season with him

[GCSkiwi]

Really don't think Buddy is guaranteed to drop in price. His start is...
Geelong: with no Scarlett
West Coast: Last 3 scores of 112, 89(7 frees against :o), 146
Collingwood: 142 last year
Freo: 99 Last year
North: Well we all know what happened there :P (last 3 scores of 236, 96, 115)
Adelaide: 118 last year

Even if you include what he scored against Scarlett (89) he averaged 126 last year against his first 6 opponents.
Even if you take out his 236 (which you shouldnt because there is every chance he will do it again) he averaged 108 for these first 6 rounds.

Then his next opponents are Sydney, Giants, Suns, Melbourne, BYE

There is every chance he will drop in price but personally I don't think it is guaranteed

Not going to disagree but you're looking at scores in isolation. Buddy is a gun, no doubt. He will be my first upgrade target. But How often does he play 7 consistent games in a row? He doesn't average 142 against the pies, 236 against the roos was a freak effort, the 3 scores against the eagles and roos give an idea of how consistent he is against the same opponent...
Say he gets a couple of 140+, 3-4 around the 120 mark but a score of <100 in there royally stuffs his B/E. And it's not unlikely in my mind - 89 vs eagles, 99 vs freo, 96 vs roos, 89 vs Cats... only needs 1 or 2 of those and life gets interesting for him...

Exactly. He is Buddy. Ablett will need to average around 145 to not drop in price - its quite possible he will. But he is being picked.

Ablett for me is different as he consistently scores well, he's the set and forget captain. Franklin is not. Normally I would agree Franklin would be a lock but this year he has a rough opening draw combined with a natural knack for having a crap game amongst blinders, my gut tells me he's dropping. I could be wrong, and I'll cross that bridge when I get to it ;)

[Ricochet]

Really don't think Buddy is guaranteed to drop in price. His start is...
Geelong: with no Scarlett
West Coast: Last 3 scores of 112, 89(7 frees against :o), 146
Collingwood: 142 last year
Freo: 99 Last year
North: Well we all know what happened there :P (last 3 scores of 236, 96, 115)
Adelaide: 118 last year

Even if you include what he scored against Scarlett (89) he averaged 126 last year against his first 6 opponents.
Even if you take out his 236 (which you shouldnt because there is every chance he will do it again) he averaged 108 for these first 6 rounds.

Then his next opponents are Sydney, Giants, Suns, Melbourne, BYE

There is every chance he will drop in price but personally I don't think it is guaranteed

Not going to disagree but you're looking at scores in isolation. Buddy is a gun, no doubt. He will be my first upgrade target. But How often does he play 7 consistent games in a row? He doesn't average 142 against the pies, 236 against the roos was a freak effort, the 3 scores against the eagles and roos give an idea of how consistent he is against the same opponent...
Say he gets a couple of 140+, 3-4 around the 120 mark but a score of <100 in there royally stuffs his B/E. And it's not unlikely in my mind - 89 vs eagles, 99 vs freo, 96 vs roos, 89 vs Cats... only needs 1 or 2 of those and life gets interesting for him...

Just on consistency
From round 10 this year he went 236, 113, 118, 130, 109 (subbed off just after HT), 77, 112, 117, 128, 122.
Thats one game in ten games where he went under 109 and it was the week after straining his hammy.

On kicking bags
Superstar fwds kick bags. Buddy kicked 13 in 2012, 8 in 2011, 8 three times and a bag of 9 in 2008 and 7 in 2007.
And he will kick a bag of 10+ again. So we can't discount the NM game because it will happen again.

and on price decreases
Yep your right, there is every chance he will pump out a 77 in between some big scores and his price will drop. But its similar to the Ablett and Swan argument... do you want to wait for that price drop while he's pumping out massive scores. And if he's hitting 120-140s his BE will be so low that a <100 won't see much of a price drop.

[Southstorm]

Did the math myself last night because I was also weighing up buddy. If you look at the normal distribution of his scores, he comes with a 12% chance of scoring over 140, 33% chance of gettting less than 100 and an 0.3% chance of pulling out a score over 200 based on his last few seasons.

2011 scores against this years first six opponents.

Geelong: 93, 85, 95 (rds 5, 12 and QF)
West Coast: 146 (rd 4)
Collingwood: 66, 79 (rds 15 and PF)
Fremantle: 63 (rd 19)
North: 96 (rd 20)
Adelaide: 72 (rd 1)

Include these with 2012 scores and you get an average of 96.125 for the first six opponents.

I can't remember back far enough to know if Lance was struggling in the later stages of 2011 or who was opposing him at each of those teams so take the 2011 stats with a sizeable tablet of salt.

Still worthwhile reading for anybody considering him IMO.

[GCSkiwi]

Really don't think Buddy is guaranteed to drop in price. His start is...
Geelong: with no Scarlett
West Coast: Last 3 scores of 112, 89(7 frees against :o), 146
Collingwood: 142 last year
Freo: 99 Last year
North: Well we all know what happened there :P (last 3 scores of 236, 96, 115)
Adelaide: 118 last year

Even if you include what he scored against Scarlett (89) he averaged 126 last year against his first 6 opponents.
Even if you take out his 236 (which you shouldnt because there is every chance he will do it again) he averaged 108 for these first 6 rounds.

Then his next opponents are Sydney, Giants, Suns, Melbourne, BYE

There is every chance he will drop in price but personally I don't think it is guaranteed

Not going to disagree but you're looking at scores in isolation. Buddy is a gun, no doubt. He will be my first upgrade target. But How often does he play 7 consistent games in a row? He doesn't average 142 against the pies, 236 against the roos was a freak effort, the 3 scores against the eagles and roos give an idea of how consistent he is against the same opponent...
Say he gets a couple of 140+, 3-4 around the 120 mark but a score of <100 in there royally stuffs his B/E. And it's not unlikely in my mind - 89 vs eagles, 99 vs freo, 96 vs roos, 89 vs Cats... only needs 1 or 2 of those and life gets interesting for him...

Just on consistency
From round 10 this year he went 236, 113, 118, 130, 109 (subbed off just after HT), 77, 112, 117, 128, 122.
Thats one game in ten games where he went under 109 and it was the week after straining his hammy.

On kicking bags
Superstar fwds kick bags. Buddy kicked 13 in 2012, 8 in 2011, 8 three times and a bag of 9 in 2008 and 7 in 2007.
And he will kick a bag of 10+ again. So we can't discount the NM game because it will happen again.

and on price decreases
Yep your right, there is every chance he will pump out a 77 in between some big scores and his price will drop. But its similar to the Ablett and Swan argument... do you want to wait for that price drop while he's pumping out massive scores. And if he's hitting 120-140s his BE will be so low that a <100 won't see much of a price drop.

Agree to disagree mate, nothing you've said is wrong, we all have to hedge a bet somewhere.
"And if he's hitting 120-140s his BE will be so low that a <100 won't see much of a price drop." spot on, and I'm hoping he doesn't ;)

I ignore the roos score because that is not a usual thing. I'm not saying he doesn't have the potential to do it, just saying it isn't a probable event.
So, without round 10, from round 11 this year he went  113, 118, 130, 109, 77, 112, 117, 128, 122 - Give me those first 7 as his opening to 2013 and my strategy will play out perfectly :)
We can both tweak the numbers to get the picture we want, time will tell if it was worth the risk.

As for the comparison with Ablett and Swan, you aren't comparing apples with apples. The entire reason I'm unlikely to start buddy is because of the draw. Ablett and Swan have a different draw, thus it's a different story. I'm banking on the Buddy price drop being early in the season. It would absolutely be different if he was playing these 7 teams in a row leading up to finals, because at that time it's irrelevant, you need the best players in. At the beginning of the season you have to make strategic calls about who you start with and who you're going to target as upgrades. And I might be wrong, but we're all taking risks somewhere or another.

[Pokerface]

Did the math myself last night because I was also weighing up buddy. If you look at the normal distribution of his scores, he comes with a 12% chance of scoring over 140, 33% chance of gettting less than 100 and an 0.3% chance of pulling out a score over 200 based on his last few seasons.

2011 scores against this years first six opponents.

Geelong: 93, 85, 95 (rds 5, 12 and QF)
West Coast: 146 (rd 4)
Collingwood: 66, 79 (rds 15 and PF)
Fremantle: 63 (rd 19)
North: 96 (rd 20)
Adelaide: 72 (rd 1)

Include these with 2012 scores and you get an average of 96.125 for the first six opponents.

I can't remember back far enough to know if Lance was struggling in the later stages of 2011 or who was opposing him at each of those teams so take the 2011 stats with a sizeable tablet of salt.

Still worthwhile reading for anybody considering him IMO.

Geelong - no Scarlett now
reading m0nty's comments on the lower scores:
Collingwood - rd 15 rolled ankle
Freo - corkie
North - hamstring issue
Adelaide - the whole hawthorn team was attrocious. it still gives me nightmares. 5 FA certainly wouldn't have helped there.

[Pokerface]

So, without round 10, from round 11 this year he went  113, 118, 130, 109, 77, 112, 117, 128, 122 - Give me those first 7 as his opening to 2013 and my strategy will play out perfectly :)

What scores will whoever you get instead of him get for those 7 rounds? With the alternatives you are already a couple of hundred points down over that period.

[Ricochet]

Really don't think Buddy is guaranteed to drop in price. His start is...
Geelong: with no Scarlett
West Coast: Last 3 scores of 112, 89(7 frees against :o), 146
Collingwood: 142 last year
Freo: 99 Last year
North: Well we all know what happened there :P (last 3 scores of 236, 96, 115)
Adelaide: 118 last year

Even if you include what he scored against Scarlett (89) he averaged 126 last year against his first 6 opponents.
Even if you take out his 236 (which you shouldnt because there is every chance he will do it again) he averaged 108 for these first 6 rounds.

Then his next opponents are Sydney, Giants, Suns, Melbourne, BYE

There is every chance he will drop in price but personally I don't think it is guaranteed

Not going to disagree but you're looking at scores in isolation. Buddy is a gun, no doubt. He will be my first upgrade target. But How often does he play 7 consistent games in a row? He doesn't average 142 against the pies, 236 against the roos was a freak effort, the 3 scores against the eagles and roos give an idea of how consistent he is against the same opponent...
Say he gets a couple of 140+, 3-4 around the 120 mark but a score of <100 in there royally stuffs his B/E. And it's not unlikely in my mind - 89 vs eagles, 99 vs freo, 96 vs roos, 89 vs Cats... only needs 1 or 2 of those and life gets interesting for him...

Just on consistency
From round 10 this year he went 236, 113, 118, 130, 109 (subbed off just after HT), 77, 112, 117, 128, 122.
Thats one game in ten games where he went under 109 and it was the week after straining his hammy.

On kicking bags
Superstar fwds kick bags. Buddy kicked 13 in 2012, 8 in 2011, 8 three times and a bag of 9 in 2008 and 7 in 2007.
And he will kick a bag of 10+ again. So we can't discount the NM game because it will happen again.

and on price decreases
Yep your right, there is every chance he will pump out a 77 in between some big scores and his price will drop. But its similar to the Ablett and Swan argument... do you want to wait for that price drop while he's pumping out massive scores. And if he's hitting 120-140s his BE will be so low that a <100 won't see much of a price drop.

Agree to disagree mate, nothing you've said is wrong, we all have to hedge a bet somewhere.
"And if he's hitting 120-140s his BE will be so low that a <100 won't see much of a price drop." spot on, and I'm hoping he doesn't ;)

I ignore the roos score because that is not a usual thing. I'm not saying he doesn't have the potential to do it, just saying it isn't a probable event.
So, without round 10, from round 11 this year he went  113, 118, 130, 109, 77, 112, 117, 128, 122 - Give me those first 7 as his opening to 2013 and my strategy will play out perfectly :)
We can both tweak the numbers to get the picture we want, time will tell if it was worth the risk.

As for the comparison with Ablett and Swan, you aren't comparing apples with apples. The entire reason I'm unlikely to start buddy is because of the draw. Ablett and Swan have a different draw, thus it's a different story. I'm banking on the Buddy price drop being early in the season. It would absolutely be different if he was playing these 7 teams in a row leading up to finals, because at that time it's irrelevant, you need the best players in. At the beginning of the season you have to make strategic calls about who you start with and who you're going to target as upgrades. And I might be wrong, but we're all taking risks somewhere or another.

Yep fair enough GCSkiwi, anything can happen really.

[GCSkiwi]

So, without round 10, from round 11 this year he went  113, 118, 130, 109, 77, 112, 117, 128, 122 - Give me those first 7 as his opening to 2013 and my strategy will play out perfectly :)

What scores will whoever you get instead of him get for those 7 rounds? With the alternatives you are already a couple of hundred points down over that period.

Moot argument because with the money I save I can invest in another player who will score more than person x on your team. Like I said to ricochet, we're all taking a punt, mine is to not have buddy. Yours may be that you have to have buddy so in doing so you have less money to spend on others. I agree I will be points down over others, but not 200 over ~6 games.

[GCSkiwi]

I'm putting this here because there was a few of us having a debate over buddy in this thread, just an interesting stat I pulled from Mike Sheahan's article on HS about Franklin:

"He booted 69.64 from 19 games last year, including 3.4 in the Grand Final. Remove the 13 he kicked in the picnic against North Melbourne in Launceston in Round 10 - OK, give him five, his next best return last year - and it's an average of just better than three a game"

Not saying he can't score well in SC, obviously he can, but the argument about his goal kicking ability just went out the window. Makes me wonder what he could get if he could kick straight! 200 average? :P

[bottlemart]

Due to Stevie J's suspension I was forced to put Buddy in at R1. He joins my other forward prems of Cox, Rocky and Martin.
Buddy is a gun.. but I dont really want to even start with him. He has a really tough start to the year and if the contract circus that surrounded Cloke last year has even a fraction of the affect on Buddy then it could get ugly. I would rather use him as an upgrade target as most Coaches seem to be but who to put in for him??

NicNat = Injured
Pav = injured, had no pre season
Ryder = Has form slumps that make any coach cringe
Roughead = Scores well as a ruckman but with Baily returning from injury he will spend less time there
Walker = Key forward and will have to see how he performs without Tippet
Chappy = Another year older, less mid time
Zorko = Unproven
Bartel = Unknown role and scoring potential
Cyril = Injured.. again
Waite = Injured more often than not
Stevie J = Suspended round 1
Daisy = Injured

Beyond that is a bunch of older players that are on the decline or key position forwards that only score well when they kick a bag. Or "potential" breakout players which I already have one in Dustin Martin.

I really am struggling to find who to put in. Can anyone give me a reason to pick someone else?

Hey quinny.  Of those in teh list above, I would go wit Taylor Walker.  This bloke has the potential to become elite, and he may be on the way.

If you wnat to free up some cash, go with Karnezis, or if you have already got him, go with Cornelius.  If Buddy starts slowly cos of his tough start, you should get a price rise from the 2 lions boys and can upgrade one or both to buddy after say about R7.

That's my plan.

[creeker]

Thanks guys, getting some great feedback.

Why did SJ have to punch that turd Ballantyne  :'(

Agree with you there quinny. Why did Ballantyne put his head in front of Stevie Js fist.

[quinny88]

Yeah hadn't heard much about Karnezis until recently but I will have a look him.

Haha I know creeper, bloody Ballantyne  >:(