The ruck strategy

[Mat0369]

With everyone jumping off the Goldstein bandwagon after a poor half NAB cup game  ::) it got me thinking about other options. Everyone seems to be upgrading but there is one guy who averaged 76.5 over two games last season and has always been touted as the future of the Hawks ruck stocks before succumbing to constant injuries. That man is Max Bailey. He looks to be fit for the first time in a long time and he is priced under 300k right now. Could there be some merit to starting two mid price rucks in Leuenberger and Bailey? We all know Nic Nat is out for the start of the season and that the majority of us will be looking to bring him in. So are we better off trying to scope the best two mid price cash cow ruck options? Is the money better spent at other premium spots with Cox in the forward line and a DPP link in case of emergency that Bailey does go down? It would be a risky move but considering Leuenberger was putting up premium scores before his injury and that Bailey could average 80, it does free up almost 200k at the position.

[FactHunt]

Time will tell if Big Max even plays... with Roughy and Hale, if Max isn't fit AND firing i suspect he won't be a permanent fixture in the side.
Im just speculating here, maybe one of the Hawks boys could enlighten further?!?

[yorgis]

you would think that he would finally be over all the injuries he's had. he's definately on my radar as is belly

i remember him saying last year in an interview that he wants the no 1 ruck at bomberland

[Mat0369]

In terms of Bailey playing, the Hawks looked to be trialing Roughy at CHB. This to me says that Hale would play forward while spelling Bailey in the ruck. I think if he is fit, he plays. A true tap ruck is one of the Hawks biggest weaknesses and Bailey can play when he is on the park, it is just if he can actually get out there.


Bellchambers is far more expensive then Bailey but is cheaper then Goldy. There are a couple of other options around the mid price who could have decent seasons as stopgaps until Nic Nat returns.

McKernan, Pedersan and Vardy are all in the 200-300k region. They are all expected to get significant amounts of playing time at their clubs (McKernan being the one with the biggest question mark on him).


If Goldstein continues to not set the world on fire through the next couple of games, would it be worth looking at the two mid pricers and use the cash in another spot like a premo mid/back/fwd compared to upgrading to Jacobs/Maric which is what most people seem to be doing?

[cdcanman]

If you're looking for someone in a similar price bracket, I'd prefer to spend my money on Zac Smith. He has a much higher ceiling than the other 2 mentioned. He will likely spend more time on the ball than other 2, and his job security is better. He struggled with injuries a tad last year, playing hurt for much of the season. If healthy, he could well return to 90+ average. Not sure Bellchambers has that in him, and pretty certain Bailey doesn't. Just my thoughts on the matter. Take them or leave them.

[Mat0369]

If you're looking for someone in a similar price bracket, I'd prefer to spend my money on Zac Smith. He has a much higher ceiling than the other 2 mentioned. He will likely spend more time on the ball than other 2, and his job security is better. He struggled with injuries a tad last year, playing hurt for much of the season. If healthy, he could well return to 90+ average. Not sure Bellchambers has that in him, and pretty certain Bailey doesn't. Just my thoughts on the matter. Take them or leave them.

Bailey was just the example I picked. I was talking guys more under 300k so you could free up say 200 from where Goldy was priced to spend the cash elsewhere.

[StuL]

Stefan Martin. Looked good as a forward in cup.

[Cruiseon]

I'm looking at the DPP approach to hedge my bets. Goldy will be fine, its the Berger who may not convince. I am going to start with these two and with Cox as a forward. I think the missing link is Rowe as a 4th ruck who can then alow Cox to ruck when if required.

View longer term might be Berger for Nic Nat but we'll see.

Thoughts?

[jaycav]

I'm going with Josh Jenkins Averaged 67 including a 95,99 and 106 vs WC last year with limited time, know with tippet gone should get a lot more time, then upgrade to nic nat. worth taking a risk with the 30 trades with the money saved i was able to get ablett and swan in my team

[Cruiseon]

Are you thinking for ruck 2, 3 or 4?

I presume Jenkins is much more expensive than Rowe. I had him last year so I wouldn't want cash sitting on bench. Is he a DPP?

[Millhouse]

this, could have legs, if Rowe gets a few games; put him on your forwards bench for additional coverage

I'm initially worried about two mid pricers; there's a statistical reason why players are priced as they are before round one; we often create a narrative to abate this - however the numbers are statistically sound. Bailey's played games since being drafted for the 2006 season - 12 of which in 2011, hence cheap price. 

As a means to upgrade to nicnat or whomever, it may not be as simple as a straight swap +50K . For Bailey to value 550k he'd need to average just over 100 - his highest score is 94. I would suggest best case is he'd average ~90 and be approx 480-500k - a value increase of 200k. - This increase is within the realm of possibility of the rookies, perhaps moreso as they need to score less to increase in value.

There's more viable season-long options of undervalued rucks; McIntosh (give him more than 20 minutes in the first round of preseason to get off the bandwagon) or Mumford, or Bellchambers for example. There's also room for growth in Jacobs and Giles.

If you're strapped for cash Maric & rookie combination may be a more viable option, given the good selection of ruck rookies

[Mat0369]

I think Vardy also just gained some serious value. With West, Simpson and Dawson out, he becomes the option.

So maybe a Leuenberger, Vardy, Rowe, Daw/Curry line up might look ok come round 1.

[jaycav]

Are you thinking for ruck 2, 3 or 4?

I presume Jenkins is much more expensive than Rowe. I had him last year so I wouldn't want cash sitting on bench. Is he a DPP?

Yes he is 360k he is DPP Also Mackernen eitehr one should fill tippets role plus 2nd ruckman both have been getting similar time in the nab cup games.

I was going to take the risk of Jenkins, rowe, and 2 rook rucks but their performance/game time in the nab having been the best still might do it but ATM i have Z.Smith, Jenkins and 2 rookies. i def think the rucks have a lot of value this year especially with the DPP.   

[tor01doc]

Roughead CHB!?

Lake, Schoenmakers, Stratton, Birchall - where are they all going to fit?

Bailey is a class act if fit.

Can't trust him though.

[Rusty00]

Roughead CHB!?

Lake, Schoenmakers, Stratton, Birchall - where are they all going to fit?

Bailey is a class act if fit.

Can't trust him though.

Gibson as well.