Horse Racing Thread

[valkorum]

I am not sold on Exospheric as it has never raced over 2412, even though Damian Oliver is the jockey.

On a different note, I have just bought a share in a 2yo Bay Filly over here in WA.  Named Browsing and will have her maiden run at Ascot on 12/11/2016.  It ran a 400m trial last week which she won. Click here to watch race (she is the horse on the outside)

If she goes well she will be spelled and then start getting ready in the new year for the 2yo racing season in Perth (March - May)

Not sure how she will go, as the race will be 1100m but you never know with 2yo.  And yes the rule applies - don't bet on 2yo's

[BratPack]

Well I tend to do it anyway so let's do it again

Bratpack's One Line (Per Horse) Melbourne Cup Preview

1. Big Orange: Came 5th last year in a race that didn't suit him. speed probably will here though. But needs it dry.

2. Our Ivanhowe: It did have a good run in the Caulfield considering. I don't think it can carry equal top weight and win though.

3. Curren Mirotic: No 9 Year old gelding has ever won the Melbourne Cup and that won't change this year. Still probably a POD for your multiples as it will get the 3200

4. Bondi Beach: Got trampled on last year. So forget that. The stable knows how to win. The horse does. I don't know if I can take it 3.5kg worse than last year though. Probably have to give it some chance though.

5. Exospheric: If I was watching the runs it's had at Werribee I'd say hell no. Did get home in the Caufield though. But 1st start over 3200 means I'm probably leaving it out.

6. Hartnell: Couldn't beat Winx. Can it beat this lot though? Probably....if that run in the Cox wasn't its peak.....

7. Whoshotthebarman: The poor mans Red Cadeaux (RIP). Will give a sight. Don't think it can win though. But you have to include in your multiples.

8. Wicklow Brave: Is this Frankie's year? Saturday Arvo I would've said "Yes". But then it drew the car park. A chance but not a great one any more.

9. Almoonqith: I don't understand why this is still $26 considering its Caulfield run. My gut still says no. But it's not a $26 chance.

10. Galante: Did win the Sydney Cup and probably needs it going that direction to have a hope. But if it throws it down....

11. Grand Marshall: Probably ran its race at the Valley. But if the pace is kamikaze like they're expecting it's not the worst one to be on.

12. Jameka: I doubted her in the Caulfield and she smashed them. Won the Oaks last year.....but I still have my doubts. Take of that what you will.

13. Heartbreak City: Aptly named considering it was another I liked until it drew the Mad Mouse at the Showgrounds. Still....it does tick a lot of boxes....but the gate.....

14. Sir John Hawkwood: Won't get the distance. Won't get a place.

15. Excess Knowledge: Seems to be going about as well as it was last year, where it lead into the straight and then promptly faded to nothing. Might taste the prizemoney (Top 10) but won't challenge the first 4.

16. Beautiful Romance: It's a Godolphin horse and they're not talking about it. That alone makes me intrigued (See Beekeeper, Central Park). I think I prefer the other imports though.

17. Almandin: It's the one (Along with Jameka) that was crunched today. And it has looked good its last two runs and has a lightweight. Can it get 3200 though?

18. Assign: Carrying the hopes of female back to back winner hopes everywhere. I don't think its a Prince of Penzance though. Of course this time last year I didn't think Prince of Penzance was a Prince of Penzance. But with its gate (The Animal Pavilion at the Showgrounds) I'll still pass.

19. Grey Lion: How to assess this one?....It did run a great race at the Geelong Cup and the form has held up. But at the same time Geelong was heavily on pace biased. Each way.....I think.

20. Oceanographer: Yes it looked the cup winner on Saturday in the Lexus....but if you read these previews the last 3-4 years you know I never rate the Lexus as anything. Still it did swoop home for 3rd at the biased Geelong...But....no I won't be on it.

21. Secret Number: Came out for the Cup last year (It didn't qualify but came 2nd on the last day). The draw suits. The class doesn't though.

22. Pentathlon: It's a chance.....if half the field falls over and they somehow run an extra lap.

23. Qewy: Like Grey Lion and to some extent Oceanographer, it's an either/or. It's either a red hot chance or it got lucky on a biased track. Personally? I think it's the forgotten chance.

24. Rose of Virginia: Why this got a run after that run Saturday I will never know. Nice for the young apprentice riding him I guess, but not for anyone else.

So....what to make of it.

Let's say. In no particular order

6. Hartnell
1. Big Orange
23. Qewy
17. Almandin
4. Bondi Beach
9. Almoonqith
With Roughie chances to Wicklow Brave and Heartbreak City if they can overcome the gates

[kilbluff1985]

who do you guys think is the best long shot to place?

i like putting $10 on one with big odds to place

[tbagrocks]

Maybe the only one in the country with no Jamika  BP? Interesting

I was thinking either Big Orange or Wicklow Brave as the best to plunge a plenty on for a place!

[shaker]

Always a very hard race to pick except for when the diva was running , I will do my same flexi trifecta for $50 bucks with 8 horses ....... maybe this year I can crack it  ::)

[BratPack]

Maybe the only one in the country with no Jamika  BP? Interesting

As I said. There's something in my gut that keeps telling me "No" with Jameka. But as I also said I had the same thought at Caulfield.

[BratPack]

who do you guys think is the best long shot to place?

i like putting $10 on one with big odds to place

Tough to say. If the Geelong Cup form is solid and not just "Biased track" Then I'd say Grey Lion or Qewy is your go. But if it is the latter....Grand Marshall maybe? Depends what you mean by "Big Odds" do you mean like $5 the place? or are you more like 7 or 8?

[RiOtChEsS]

Food for thought, cheers man, i am a "shot in the dark" with horse racing, you have given me a compass

[kilbluff1985]

who do you guys think is the best long shot to place?

i like putting $10 on one with big odds to place

Tough to say. If the Geelong Cup form is solid and not just "Biased track" Then I'd say Grey Lion or Qewy is your go. But if it is the latter....Grand Marshall maybe? Depends what you mean by "Big Odds" do you mean like $5 the place? or are you more like 7 or 8?

i mean like $20 + to place lol

[BratPack]

who do you guys think is the best long shot to place?

i like putting $10 on one with big odds to place

Tough to say. If the Geelong Cup form is solid and not just "Biased track" Then I'd say Grey Lion or Qewy is your go. But if it is the latter....Grand Marshall maybe? Depends what you mean by "Big Odds" do you mean like $5 the place? or are you more like 7 or 8?

i mean like $20 + to place lol

I don't think one will get to $20 the place. But closest to it would be Rose of Virginia, Pentathlon and Beautiful Romance

[RiOtChEsS]

Im goin Heartbreak City

[Bill Manspeaker]

Exospheric is running. it'll win for sure!

[kilbluff1985]

my bets

just need one to win for a profit

Big Orange win extra odds @16.00
Qewy place @7.50
Almoonqith place @7.50
Pentathlon place @21.00

[valkorum]

My Bets:

Big Orange / Hartnell for the Quinella
Hartnell for win

Still waiting for my sweeps to be drawn at work.

[fanTCfool]

I don't know much about horse-racing, but need one of Bondi Beach, Who Shot THEBARMAN, Almoonqith, Jameka, Excess Knowledge, Beautiful Romance to win