Interesting stat - and tough decision!

[MC]

So I was trawling through some FF stats earlier to justify my selection of Marc Murphy this year, and found an interesting stat. So far this year, my mids have been basically locked in as: Ablett/Pendles/JPK/Murphy/Fyfe.
I have been strongly looking at players such as Beams, Cotchin and Priddis as well.

The stat I found:

Scores of 140 or more in 2012:

Ablett: 10
Beams: 8
Watson: 7
Swan: 6
Pendlebury: 5
Dangerfield: 5
Selwood: 5
K Jack: 5
JPK: 4
Deledio: 4
Murphy: 3 (16 games played)
Cotchin: 2


So from this data, we can take one of two viewpoints:

1. Less scores above 140 (aside from Ablett) means more consistency - all of the other players averaged 115-125 anyway.

OR

2. More scores above 140 means a higher ceiling - which could potentially be capitalised upon in 2013 if the occasional low scoring games are removed.


The player in focus here for me is Dayne Beams. He scored above 140 a massive 8 times, with two monster scores of above 170, and a further two that were 150+
His potential to back up his break-out year is huge - and with more maturity and experience under his belt, should be improving (he's only 22 years old).

My dilemma now is:

JPK vs Beams


What do you think?

[Vincent]

I think that inconsistent players should be upgrade targets who you can pick up at their cheapest. The consistent ones dont change their price much.

[MC]

That's a good point, but on the other hand, players like Buddy Franklin are generally amongst the first picked because people would never want to miss his occasional 200+ score.

It's a tough decision - personally I see them both finishing the season around the 120 mark. Do you think Beams will drop in the first few rounds to become an upgrade target by about rd 8?

[Mat0369]

JPK will probably get the first tag, Beams won't, depends how much the extra cash means to you otherwise you can't go wrong.

One guy not on your list with the scores over 140. Kieren Jack who had 5 over 140 which is a pretty big number considering some of the others.

[Mat0369]

Also talking about Beams being inconsistent, he really was not when looking at his scores. He started slow but after round 5 he only had two scores under 100 which were both 80's not including finals. This is coming from someone who really dislikes him, he was actually rather consistent.

[MC]

JPK will probably get the first tag, Beams won't, depends how much the extra cash means to you otherwise you can't go wrong.

One guy not on your list with the scores over 140. Kieren Jack who had 5 over 140 which is a pretty big number considering some of the others.

Ah good one, I'll add him up there. Good point also re: tagging. Opposition coaches would struggle to contain all three of Beams/Swan/Pendlebury.

[Vincent]

Clinton Young will probably get the tag because he is such a good kick which means Swan, Beams and Pendles will be able to run free. The way Beams finished the year was awesome. He's been put in the leadership group so Bucks must love him, and he wiill be unique. Jump on.

[Mat0369]

at teams tagging Clinton Young

[fever]

idk if it's worth considering that both swan and pendles missed a decent chunk last year, which may have given him slightly more mid time than he'll get when theyre both fit. it prob wouldnt adjust the data too much, but might be worth a thought.

[ronl]

I don't know, most teams don't even bother trying to tag Swan and Pendles anymore because it's a fruitless exercise, isn't it? Money is better spent stopping Beams, Sidebottom, Shaw etc.

[upthemaidens]

I don't know, most teams don't even bother trying to tag Swan and Pendles anymore because it's a fruitless exercise, isn't it? Money is better spent stopping Beams, Sidebottom, Shaw etc.

I think pendles can be tagged with some effect,  Swan is pretty much untaggable though.
  If I was the opposition coach I would place first tag on either Pendles or beams(depending on match-up) and secondary tag on Shaw (since he struggles to break one).

[Hagebear]

Also remember with JPK Sydney have a good start to the draw playing GWS, GC and North Melb in the first 3 games so he could get off to a flyer.

[joshua98]

Kennedy also has the round 12 bye over beams with the round 13 bye

[Mat0369]

idk if it's worth considering that both swan and pendles missed a decent chunk last year, which may have given him slightly more mid time than he'll get when theyre both fit. it prob wouldnt adjust the data too much, but might be worth a thought.

And Luke Ball missed pretty much the entire season.

[TheAnt]

Kennedy getting tagged is a pretty funny comment...Swan called him the strongest midfielder he's ever come up against. He's impossible to tag because he's such a contested player and a great goal kicker. Just because a player hasn't scored big scores often doesn't mean he has a much lower ceiling. There are many factors that can decide that.